Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
balaks said:
People vote for parties for usually the same reason - they vote for the party that they think represents them or offers what they see as benefits to themselves. To call people thick because they think differently from you is not only arrogant but it is also ignorant.
Click to expand...

Ha ha ha how naive.
 
balaks said:
People vote for parties for usually the same reason - they vote for the party that they think represents them or offers what they see as benefits to themselves. To call people thick because they think differently from you is not only arrogant but it is also ignorant.
Click to expand...

People vote for the leader that looks most prime-ministerial.

Failing that, they vote for who their granddad voted for.

For many, policy barely comes into it.
 
Get the impression from the recent rhetoric that May & European leaders have already agreed on a few concessions. This whole 'only deal' messaging just means May can save a bit of face from her trip & say she's been 'tough' on negotiations and got us an amazing agreement. EU will still get an excellent deal & Conservatives can bang on about saving the country because it looks like they've won a small victory aginst the mighty EU.
 
tomaldinho1 said:
Get the impression from the recent rhetoric that May & European leaders have already agreed on a few concessions. This whole 'only deal' messaging just means May can save a bit of face from her trip & say she's been 'tough' on negotiations and got us an amazing agreement. EU will still get an excellent deal & Conservatives can bang on about saving the country because it looks like they've won a small victory aginst the mighty EU.
Click to expand...

My thoughts too. May and the EU orchestrated this to put maximum pressure on the final vote, thus making it harder to vote down.
 
Smores said:
There's a large base of Tory voters who are voting against their own interests time and time again and then proceed to moan about the state of affairs. I don't think it's arrogant to question these people's intelligence.

Another fun day of brexit nonsense....
Click to expand...

And if Labour could at least try and look credible, they might give voters an alternative to voting Conservative. Many are picking the least worst option.

Labour ought to spend less time lurching further to the left and more time on seeking out a candidate who can actually give the Tories something to think about.
 
tomaldinho1 said:
Get the impression from the recent rhetoric that May & European leaders have already agreed on a few concessions. This whole 'only deal' messaging just means May can save a bit of face from her trip & say she's been 'tough' on negotiations and got us an amazing agreement. EU will still get an excellent deal & Conservatives can bang on about saving the country because it looks like they've won a small victory aginst the mighty EU.
Click to expand...

What concessions do you think the UK are going to get?

Even if there was something about the backstop, which I would say is highly unlikely, you think the deal will get through? The ERG, Tory Leavers and Labour the DUP and SNP will vote it down whatever it says. All May is trying to do is delay the vote as long as possible.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
What concessions do you think the UK are going to get?

Even if there was something about the backstop, which I would say is highly unlikely, you think the deal will get through? The ERG, Tory Leavers and Labour the DUP and SNP will vote it down whatever it says. All May is trying to do is delay the vote as long as possible.
Click to expand...

Yes I think there will be some changes to the backstop. EU would rather anything than us leave on a 'no deal' basis but they have to save face and look to have made an example of the UK for their longevity as a union after we leave. The proposed deal is so one sided, it seems implausible that May can have negotiated so poorly and I think we'll see some very small changes now - spun by the media as huge wins. Whether that gets through is another matter but I think it's the best chance she has of remaining in power and looking like she's got a 'win'.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
What concessions do you think the UK are going to get?

Even if there was something about the backstop, which I would say is highly unlikely, you think the deal will get through? The ERG, Tory Leavers and Labour the DUP and SNP will vote it down whatever it says. All May is trying to do is delay the vote as long as possible.
Click to expand...

I differ to the other poster here as I think it will just be some fluff.
 
tomaldinho1 said:
Yes I think there will be some changes to the backstop. EU would rather anything than us leave on a 'no deal' basis but they have to save face and look to have made an example of the UK for their longevity as a union after we leave. The proposed deal is so one sided, it seems implausible that May can have negotiated so poorly and I think we'll see some very small changes now - spun by the media as huge wins. Whether that gets through is another matter but I think it's the best chance she has of remaining in power and looking like she's got a 'win'.
Click to expand...
Like what?

I'm genuinely curious, what can actually be done to the backstop? It's either open border, or hard border.
 
Kentonio said:
I'm not trying to persuade you to, just pointing out the trap she'd be laying.
Click to expand...

Yeah i said the same yesterday i think it's exactly what she's going to do. I don't know if it'll be allowed by the electoral commission or if parliament have the numbers to force remain as an option.

Personally I'd have it as Mays Deal vs Remain with some form if assurance there can't be a 3rd one. There's been no will of the people for a no deal
 
Smores said:
Yeah i said the same yesterday i think it's exactly what she's going to do. I don't know if it'll be allowed by the electoral commission or if parliament have the numbers to force remain as an option.

Personally I'd have it as Mays Deal vs Remain with some form if assurance there can't be a 3rd one. There's been no will of the people for a no deal
Click to expand...

The 3rd option would be "Just get on with it!"
 
If there's another vote, someone needs to put together all the video clips and quotes of the hardcore Leavers saying AFTER the '16 referendum that 'no-one was talking about leaving the single market' before they later did a full 180 on it like everything else.
 
Massive Spanner said:
Like what?

I'm genuinely curious, what can actually be done to the backstop? It's either open border, or hard border.
Click to expand...

Both sides keep talking about 'clarifications' rather than wholesale changes so I think something will change. As I understand it our current deal keeps N Ireland aligned to 'some rules of the EU single market, if another solution cannot be found by the end of the transition period in December 2020.' (from the BBC) Interesting part of that being the word 'some'.

I had understood it as you have, that's a hard or open border choice and there's no wiggle room around that. The fact it appears we seem to be able to negotiate on points within the backstop (unless I have misunderstood the above) makes me think there's a whole raft of options that can be negotiated on even if the backstop stays.
 
tomaldinho1 said:
Yes I think there will be some changes to the backstop. EU would rather anything than us leave on a 'no deal' basis but they have to save face and look to have made an example of the UK for their longevity as a union after we leave. The proposed deal is so one sided, it seems implausible that May can have negotiated so poorly and I think we'll see some very small changes now - spun by the media as huge wins. Whether that gets through is another matter but I think it's the best chance she has of remaining in power and looking like she's got a 'win'.
Click to expand...

I don't see how they can change the backstop, the whole point is that it is insurance against the Uk laving with no resolution to the Irish border.

I don't see it as one-sided but exactly what I expected. The UK have to remember that they want to leave and thus lose all the benefits of being in the EU but the EU are permitting them to have a transition period to help them soften the blow but if the UK still wanto leave without the transition that is their choice but the Irish problem still has to be resolved.

It's in everyone's interest for the exit to be as smooth as possible but the possibility of a no deal exit is highly probable at this moment because part of parliament want to leave at any cost another part think they can have cherries, cake and all the rest.
To think the EU will do anything to prevent no deal is dangerous.
 
Massive Spanner said:
Like what?

I'm genuinely curious, what can actually be done to the backstop? It's either open border, or hard border.
Click to expand...
If May gets a concession, like some codicil added to the legal text and the deal is voted through, eventually we will wind up at December 2020.

By this time there 'should' be a 'comprehensive, all encompassing FTA' agreed. If it isn't then whatever she agrees now kicks in with whatever caveats there are.

However, this eventual marvelous FTA will also require a solution for the border. If that is not to be the current backstop - lasting forever - then what will it be?

And, if people think that it is possible to agree an FTA which solves the border question, why can't that bit be the prime topic of focus in the transition period?
 
NinjaFletch said:
Ah yes, opposing government policy by *checks notes* going along with government policy.
Click to expand...

So. What do you think that a Conservative opposition would be doing were that the case.
Going for the jugular just like they always do and doing anything and everything to bring the government to their knees.

They did not get the nickname 'the nasty party' for nothing.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
I don't see how they can change the backstop, the whole point is that it is insurance against the Uk laving with no resolution to the Irish border.

I don't see it as one-sided but exactly what I expected. The UK have to remember that they want to leave and thus lose all the benefits of being in the EU but the EU are permitting them to have a transition period to help them soften the blow but if the UK still wanto leave without the transition that is their choice but the Irish problem still has to be resolved.

It's in everyone's interest for the exit to be as smooth as possible but the possibility of a no deal exit is highly probable at this moment because part of parliament want to leave at any cost another part think they can have cherries, cake and all the rest.
To think the EU will do anything to prevent no deal is dangerous.
Click to expand...

Then they will be letting the Irish down - which they insist they are standing behind. No deal = WTO = No Customs Arrangement = Hard Border. The EU should be busting a gut to ensure no deal.
 
Buster15 said:
So. What do you think that a Conservative opposition would be doing were that the case.
Going for the jugular just like they always do and doing anything and everything to bring the government to their knees.

They did not get the nickname 'the nasty party' for nothing.
Click to expand...

I'm sorry you've lost me. Your argument that Labour should not oppose the government's Brexit policy in order to oppose the government's Brexit policy is that the Conservatives, were they in opposition, would 'go for the jugular' and oppose the government's policy?

I'm sure you're right, but I can't see the relevance to the original discussion.
 
Honest John said:
Then they will be letting the Irish down - which they insist they are standing behind. No deal = WTO = No Customs Arrangement = Hard Border. The EU should be busting a gut to ensure no deal.
Click to expand...

If the Uk won't play ball what can they do, the UK caused this problem and they have to solve it, the EU have given the solution ,albeit temporary, to the UK , now the UK have to accept the backstop until they can come up with a better solution. But the Leavers don't care.
 
Honest John said:
If May gets a concession, like some codicil added to the legal text and the deal is voted through, eventually we will wind up at December 2020.

By this time there 'should' be a 'comprehensive, all encompassing FTA' agreed. If it isn't then whatever she agrees now kicks in with whatever caveats there are.

However, this eventual marvelous FTA will also require a solution for the border. If that is not to be the current backstop - lasting forever - then what will it be?

And, if people think that it is possible to agree an FTA which solves the border question, why can't that bit be the prime topic of focus in the transition period?
Click to expand...

A FTA doesn't solve the border problem though and if a FTA is agreed in under 4 years I'd be amazed.
 
The only vaguely rational option is to can the whole thing and never speak of it again.
 
tomaldinho1 said:
Both sides keep talking about 'clarifications' rather than wholesale changes so I think something will change. As I understand it our current deal keeps N Ireland aligned to 'some rules of the EU single market, if another solution cannot be found by the end of the transition period in December 2020.' (from the BBC) Interesting part of that being the word 'some'.

I had understood it as you have, that's a hard or open border choice and there's no wiggle room around that. The fact it appears we seem to be able to negotiate on points within the backstop (unless I have misunderstood the above) makes me think there's a whole raft of options that can be negotiated on even if the backstop stays.
Click to expand...
I'm not seeing anything in here that answers my question. What can possibly change with the backstop? The back stop is the border. Either it exists or it does not. Either Ni is in the customs area or not.

The border has always been simple: either you stay in, or you go, that's it, there's no option C.
 
Honest John said:
However, this eventual marvelous FTA will also require a solution for the border. If that is not to be the current backstop - lasting forever - then what will it be?

And, if people think that it is possible to agree an FTA which solves the border question, why can't that bit be the prime topic of focus in the transition period?
Click to expand...
There is no solution to the border beyond NI staying in the customs union. It's all that's available now, and in the foreseeable future.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
A FTA doesn't solve the border problem though and if a FTA is agreed in under 4 years I'd be amazed.
Click to expand...
yes I have mentioned that in my post.

There needs to be some NI holding position if FTA talks go past December 2020. May's deal would pass (and allow progress to start onthe FTA) if the EU allow uni-lateral withdrawal from the backstop once it has been invoked. I don't see why they can't allow that. The UK are hardly likely to go crashing out onto WTO rules at that point in time.
 
Honest John said:
yes I have mentioned that in my post.

There needs to be some NI holding position if FTA talks go past December 2020. May's deal would pass (and allow progress to start onthe FTA) if the EU allow uni-lateral withdrawal from the backstop once it has been invoked. I don't see why they can't allow that. The UK are hardly likely to go crashing out onto WTO rules at that point in time.
Click to expand...
Great, and .. what about the border?
 
balaks said:
It is also the only solution there has ever been for the issue.
Click to expand...
It will never be the same unless the UK stays in the CU or 'a' CU whatever that is. There is a border there now. There is different currencies and VAT rates and I do believe there is electronic registration of goods or tracking of vehicles that are of interest. It should be technologically possible to make the border as open as it is now - whilst still maintaining a border.
 
Massive Spanner said:
Great, and .. what about the border?
Click to expand...
In that scenario the backstop rules would continue to apply. They will only stop if the UK exercises it's 'uni-lateral' right to withdraw from the backstop which would effectively be dropping onto WTO rules. I'm saying that won't happen that late stage. Having worked for 2 years towards an FTA the UK will most likely stay in the backstop for a little longer. The NI people and the DUP will by that time have got used to the idea and there will probably be technological solutions in the offing at that stage.
 
I think it's remarkable that after everything we've heard and read from Brexiters over the last few years, people still don't get why the Irish government would be insane to trust the UK's government with the ability to unilaterally end the backstop agreement.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.