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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
It will never be the same unless the UK stays in the CU or 'a' CU whatever that is. There is a border there now. There is different currencies and VAT rates and I do believe there is electronic registration of goods or tracking of vehicles that are of interest. It should be technologically possible to make the border as open as it is now - whilst still maintaining a border.

Ahh the mysterious 'technology' - nobody seems to be able to identify what this technology is or how it would work in practice (or indeed how much it would cost or how long it would take to implement) but it is rolled out as the magical solution. If it really is a solution then nobody should worry about the back-stop as clearly it will never be used due to the border problem being resolved.
 
In that scenario the backstop rules would continue to apply. They will only stop if the UK exercises it's 'uni-lateral' right to withdraw from the backstop which would effectively be dropping onto WTO rules. I'm saying that won't happen that late stage. Having worked for 2 years towards an FTA the UK will most likely stay in the backstop for a little longer. The NI people and the DUP will by that time have got used to the idea and there will probably be technological solutions in the offing at that stage.

'Probably be technological solutions in the offing at that stage' - well I'm reassured then thanks. Also really lovely that you think we would 'get used' to the thought of a hard border unless the magical technology can be developed. As long as it doesn't directly affect your life we can just get used to it?
 
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Ahh the mysterious 'technology' - nobody seems to be able to identify what this technology is or how it would work in practice (or indeed how much it would cost or how long it would take to implement) but it is rolled out as the magical solution. If it really is a solution then nobody should worry about the back-stop as clearly it will never be used due to the border problem being resolved.
Can the authorities of either side currently stop vehicles if they needed to?
 
'Probably be technological solutions in the offing at that stage' - well I'm reassured then thanks. Also really lovely that you think we would 'get used' to a hard border. As long as it doesn't directly affect your life we can just get used to it?
I did not say that anyone would get used to a hard border. Read what I said carefully.
 
I did not say that anyone would get used to a hard border. Read what I said carefully.
I read that you meant we would get used to the thought of a hard border unless technology can be developed because what else is there aside from the back-stop continuing forever.
 
I think it's remarkable that after everything we've heard and read from Brexiters over the last few years, people still don't get why the Irish government would be insane to trust the UK's government with the ability to unilaterally end the backstop agreement.
That is the only way May's deal get's through. WTO will happen before any 2nd referendum. So either there is some movement on the ability to end the backstop or its WTO and a hard border.
 
That is the only way May's deal get's through. WTO will happen before any 2nd referendum. So either there is some movement on the ability to end the backstop or its WTO and a hard border.

Or it is a second referendum and no Brexit - don't forget that option which is increasingly likely.
 
I read that you meant we would get used to the thought of a hard border unless technology can be developed because what else is there aside from the back-stop continuing forever.
Nope. I meant the DUP (who hate the backstop) and the people of NI would have got used to the transition situation by then. Remember that is a no border-change situation. The FTA talks will have progressed such that an end was in sight. So the thought of using the backstop (at that point in time) would not be as unpalatable to the DUP and others. And they would feel even more comfortable about it because we had agreed a uni-lateral withdrawal right at the beginning i.e. now. So the most like situation would be that the UK would not use that right because at that point, in that situation, it would be daft to do so.
 
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Or it is a second referendum and no Brexit - don't forget that option which is increasingly likely.
It will not happen. Any government of any colour that allows that to happen will be doomed for a generation. The only way that it may get away with it would be if the result is the same. Then what's the point?

We are talking about rearranging protocols of a land border to ensure people see the GFA as still working whilst accommodating new customs arrangements. Versus democratic betrayal of 17.4 million people.
 
Labour is majority Remain, why would us remaining doom them for a generation?

Well it doesn't really matter if Labour is 90% remain (which it isn't) because that loss of 10% means they won't be in power for decades. They'll struggle to pick up that many dismayed tories
 
In that scenario the backstop rules would continue to apply. They will only stop if the UK exercises it's 'uni-lateral' right to withdraw from the backstop which would effectively be dropping onto WTO rules. I'm saying that won't happen that late stage. Having worked for 2 years towards an FTA the UK will most likely stay in the backstop for a little longer. The NI people and the DUP will by that time have got used to the idea and there will probably be technological solutions in the offing at that stage.
What are these technological solutions, though? Honestly you sound just as bad as the hardcore Brexiteers and their motto of "ah well I'm sure we can figure something out at some point, using.. science, and technology and all that shit". Any potential technology to deal with over 300 road crossings on the border would cost an absolute bomb to research and implement, billions and billions that would probably be even more of a waste than Trump's wall, which is probably fitting given the similarities between Brexit and him being voted in. And who's going to pay for it? The EU won't, so will the UK? Will they be the ones to spend all this money to fix an issue that shouldn't have to be fixed in the first place?

There is only one solution, Northern Ireland stays in the CU and there is no border. Anything else is pure, nonsensical hyperbole that doesn't exist in any feasible form in any part of the world. To claim otherwise is pure ignorance and wishful thinking.

Personally I think the backstop is a stupid idea because it simply delays the inevitable, which is for NI to stay in the CU or not. A 50/50 question that must at some point be dealt with.
 
What are these technological solutions, though? Honestly you sound just as bad as the hardcore Brexiteers and their motto of "ah well I'm sure we can figure something out at some point, using.. science, and technology and all that shit". Any potential technology to deal with over 300 road crossings on the border would cost an absolute bomb to research and implement, billions and billions that would probably be even more of a waste than Trump's wall, which is probably fitting given the similarities between Brexit and him being voted in. And who's going to pay for it? The EU won't, so will the UK? Will they be the ones to spend all this money to fix an issue that shouldn't have to be fixed in the first place?

There is only one solution, Northern Ireland stays in the CU and there is no border. Anything else is pure, nonsensical hyperbole that doesn't exist in any feasible form in any part of the world. To claim otherwise is pure ignorance and wishful thinking.

Personally I think the backstop is a stupid idea because it simply delays the inevitable, which is for NI to stay in the CU or not. A 50/50 question that must at some point be dealt with.
It's a unique situation and will require a unique solution. I'm not a Brexiteer and I abhor them playing fast and loose with my livelihood as well as that of the people I work with. My pension has already been decimated at the mere notion of no-deal crash-out.

However, May's deal does have some potential because it is talking not about Canada or bloody Norway, but a new UK/EU FTA. Such a deal in itself should lessen the need for the border to be hard and I do not think that it is beyond the wit of man to make it look like there is no visible change - need being the mother of invention and all that. But yeah sure. We ain't buying the solution off the shelves of the Microsoft shop just yet.
 
It's a unique situation and will require a unique solution. I'm not a Brexiteer and I abhor them playing fast and loose with my livelihood as well as that of the people I work with. My pension has already been decimated at the mere notion of no-deal crash-out.

However, May's deal does have some potential because it is talking not about Canada or bloody Norway, but a new UK/EU FTA. Such a deal in itself should lessen the need for the border to be hard and I do not think that it is beyond the wit of man to make it look like there is no visible change - need being the mother of invention and all that. But yeah sure. We ain't buying the solution off the shelves of the Microsoft shop just yet.
I think it's safe to say they will be no unique solution though. Nobody will pay for it. Nobody will be able to figure it out. It's in or out, always has been and will continue to be. The backstop just delays it.

Also why does the deal lessen the need for the border to be hard? It involves the EU changing the rules of the custom union across all fronts, how can that possibly work? It will not.
 
It's a unique situation and will require a unique solution. I'm not a Brexiteer and I abhor them playing fast and loose with my livelihood as well as that of the people I work with. My pension has already been decimated at the mere notion of no-deal crash-out.

However, May's deal does have some potential because it is talking not about Canada or bloody Norway, but a new UK/EU FTA. Such a deal in itself should lessen the need for the border to be hard and I do not think that it is beyond the wit of man to make it look like there is no visible change - need being the mother of invention and all that. But yeah sure. We ain't buying the solution off the shelves of the Microsoft shop just yet.

Do you honestly have any confidence in the government implementing any IT project never mind strategically developing means that don't currently exist?

I'm left thinking exactly what has prevented the government from going out for proposals on this in the last 2 years?
 
At least 30% of their electorate voted Leave. That's a big chunk to placate.

Well it doesn't really matter if Labour is 90% remain (which it isn't) because that loss of 10% means they won't be in power for decades. They'll struggle to pick up that many dismayed tories

And 41% of Tory voters from 2015 voted Remain. Yet apparently leaving isn't going to doom the party of hard Brexit for a generation?
 
And 41% of Tory voters from 2015 voted Remain. Yet apparently leaving isn't going to doom the party of hard Brexit for a generation?

Well it depends where they go doesn't it? By doomed i assume we're talking electability and not voter base.

Not many Tories have shown up for this emergency debate i thought they'd be in for a good kicking of the prime minister but it doesn't look like it
 
I'm not seeing anything in here that answers my question. What can possibly change with the backstop? The back stop is the border. Either it exists or it does not. Either Ni is in the customs area or not.

The border has always been simple: either you stay in, or you go, that's it, there's no option C.

Yes I understand it as that as well - that's why I don't see the point of her trip to 'save the deal' unless there is some wiggle room
 
She's the real opposition, according to Newsnight last night. Emily Maitlis cut her off, just as Soubry was saying she'd vote with the government on any no-confidence vote, to tell us that.
There is no such thing as a Tory rebel. People need to realise this.
 
Soubry has constantly been a very good voice throughout this process to be fair. She's just owned Lidingtons hypocrisy on claiming impossible things being possible.
 
yes I have mentioned that in my post.

There needs to be some NI holding position if FTA talks go past December 2020. May's deal would pass (and allow progress to start onthe FTA) if the EU allow uni-lateral withdrawal from the backstop once it has been invoked. I don't see why they can't allow that. The UK are hardly likely to go crashing out onto WTO rules at that point in time.

But that's what I mean. Even if there was a FTA in place by the end of 2020 it doesn't mean the customs union isn't necessary. There has to be a solution to the Customs union, not a solution to a free trade agreement. The EU has a FTA with loads of countries but they still have borders between them. These are two different matters. I would expect the transition to be extended to end 2022 but it's going to cost money amongst other things.

Both sides have to agree to the UK leaving the backstop, otherwise they could leave on the 30th March.
Agree the EU has the UK where they want them but that's the consequence of leaving without a solution to Ireland and not falling off a cliff. Seemed inevitable to me.

There's even more complication but that's for another day.
NI needs to not only be in the CU but I believe the SM as well.
 
I wonder what these toadies have been paid with to stand up and try defend this mess :lol:

I don't know the effectiveness of the SNP on their domestic policy but their westminster representatives are of the highest order
 
That sounded very close to sounding like np-confidence support from Nicky Morgan. Calling for a national unity government too
 
I think it's safe to say they will be no unique solution though. Nobody will pay for it. Nobody will be able to figure it out. It's in or out, always has been and will continue to be. The backstop just delays it.

Also why does the deal lessen the need for the border to be hard? It involves the EU changing the rules of the custom union across all fronts, how can that possibly work? It will not.
I don't know. All I do know is that the Swiss/EU border is pretty much open. Yes there are some lorry check points but it is definitely not hard. There is actually a border in Ireland now. There are different currencies and VAT rates and I do believe there are checks that can and do take place either electronically for customs or on vehicles of interest. Why would it need to be much harder than that if the UK has an FTA with the EU?
 
What are these technological solutions, though?

Probably something along the lines of what Switzerland has. You're expected to comply with the relevant laws and border guards select vehicles and people to check. It's not too dissimilar to what the UK has in place already in that only some imports are screened.

Makes it easier that Switzerland is part of the Schengen zone, but as Ireland is not so we will just have to trust that they adequately screen people.
 
Probably something along the lines of what Switzerland has. You're expected to comply with the relevant laws and border guards select vehicles and people to check. It's not too dissimilar to what the UK has in place already in that only some imports are screened.

Makes it easier that Switzerland is part of the Schengen zone, but as Ireland is not so we will just have to trust that they adequately screen people.
That would breach the Good Friday agreement, would it not?
 
I don't know. All I do know is that the Swiss/EU border is pretty much open. Yes there are some lorry check points but it is definitely not hard. There is actually a border in Ireland now. There are different currencies and VAT rates and I do believe there are checks that can and do take place either electronically for customs or on vehicles of interest. Why would it need to be much harder than that if the UK has an FTA with the EU?
it's already been discussed to death but neither the Swiss nor Norwegian models would would with the Irish border. The GFA renders this impossible.
 
The whole “future technology” vagueness annoys me no end. It’s the kind of bullshit that happens in my business when someone can’t think of a solution or answer. It’s like saying “let’s check that and get back to you”.

So, what technology are you talking about? What will it specifically do? Who is paying for it?

It will need to be bloody good because there are many crossing points between south and north Ireland
 
The whole “future technology” vagueness annoys me no end. It’s the kind of bullshit that happens in my business when someone can’t think of a solution or answer. It’s like saying “let’s check that and get back to you”.

So, what technology are you talking about? What will it specifically do? Who is paying for it?

It will need to be bloody good because there are many crossing points between south and north Ireland
It's ludicrous. Their answer to 'how will we prevent a hard border?' is basically to say '...magic'.