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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


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It might be unpopular to mention this in this thread but feck it I would really like to discuss in reasonable fashion a couple of points/ questions.

So it doesn't say in the Good Friday agreement that the UK and Ireland have to remain in the EU, Single market or the Customs Union.

Article 50 was written after the Good Friday agreement.

If as many here say the UK isn't allowed to introduce a border in Ireland because of the GF agreement and the EU won't allow an open border then article 50 is a nonsense isn't it? If the UK isn't allowed then what is the point of having a procedure to leave which the UK could trigger let alone a referendum to decide whether to leave?

Paul TW think of the reasonable fashion part like a hard border with you on the other side.

For the GFA to continue there has to be regulatory alignment both sides of the border, that basically means a customs union.

But the problem isn't just the technical terms of the agreement, a hard border going up would symbolically be a step backward.

This does a decent job of explaining it: http://ukandeu.ac.uk/good-friday-agreement-why-it-matters-in-brexit/
 
If this situation came you'd hope enough moderate Conservatives would put the country above their party and back a Vote of No Confidence to allow a GE or second Referendum
I think the only way a 2nd referendum happens is in the event of a GE. It would have to be a manifesto pledge from one or more of the parties. And they would have to win the election standing on that. So who can win? and Who would be prepared to stand on it?
 
For the GFA to continue there has to be regulatory alignment both sides of the border, that basically means a customs union.

But the problem isn't just the technical terms of the agreement, a hard border going up would symbolically be a step backward.

This does a decent job of explaining it: http://ukandeu.ac.uk/good-friday-agreement-why-it-matters-in-brexit/

You are quite right. The problem is that most people in the rest of the UK (this is how it appears) - particularly those in power - do not give a toss about Ireland or NI and have been totally tripped up by the border issue because none of them gave it a single thought. The fact that there still appear to be calls for a no-deal from many sadly proves that now they do know about the border, they just do not care what happens over here and would happily plough on ahead with a no-deal knowingly destroying our economy in NI and endangering our hard won peace.

As somebody from a broadly unionist background (though I am fairly neutral about it all generally) I have to wonder if other people from my own background will start realising that the rest of the UK couldn't give a feck about us and will start to question 'our precious union' which only appears to be there to further the interests of (little) England. Hense why calls for a united Ireland are growing.
 
Joking aside I do think they'd be better off under Cameron. I don't know if he'd united them but he was certainly stronger, and a much better orator than May.
 
You are quite right. The problem is that most people in the rest of the UK (this is how it appears) - particularly those in power - do not give a toss about Ireland or NI and have been totally tripped up by the border issue because none of them gave it a single thought. The fact that there still appear to be calls for a no-deal from many sadly proves that now they do know about the border, they just do not care what happens over here and would happily plough on ahead with a no-deal knowingly destroying our economy in NI and endangering our hard won peace.

As somebody from a broadly unionist background (though I am fairly neutral about it all generally) I have to wonder if other people from my own background will start realising that the rest of the UK couldn't give a feck about us and will start to question 'our precious union' which only appears to be there to further the interests of England. Hense why calls for a united Ireland are growing.

That would be fantastic. Northern Ireland is nothing but a financial drain on the rest of the UK and a headache we do not need.
 
If she survives the Tories are a disgrace. I've never known a leader and her government treat parliament in such a fashion. It's been a disgrace.

Yet whatever replaces her would be even worse.
 
That would be fantastic. Northern Ireland is nothing but a financial drain on the rest of the UK and a headache we do not need.

At least you are honest. The UK is clearly close to breaking into pieces if this is the prevailing view. It will be Scotland next and then the English and Welsh can toddle on themselves.
 
replacing her won't change anything.

the deal won't be renegotiated. and the tories won't vote for the deal, clearly. so it will still be back to either no deal or a remain. surely another vote is inevitable, as no one is going to lead us to a no deal without any further say by the general public - surely?
 
We need Sam Alardyce to stabilise things. Or the political equivalent.
 
A vote of no confidence would pass the house to prevent this from happening or a bill could be put forward by the opposition to withdraw or request extension of A50

If this situation came you'd hope enough moderate Conservatives would put the country above their party and back a Vote of No Confidence to allow a GE or second Referendum

Cheers guys. For some reason censure motions hadn't occurred to me. A total sh*tshow but it may work. Not sure about a bill for an extension. Wouldn't any such proposal be treated as a private members bill and subject to filibuster?


I don’t think there are enough hard brexiteers in the Tory party for a hard Brexit candidate to win the vote. They are a vocal minority. The problem is that the Tory party is split 3 ways on Brexit so they can never get any of their options through on their own.

My concern about this is based on the mechanics of a Tory leadership election. A brexiteer only has to make it into the final 2 before being presented to the wider membership. Seems to me there's enough euroskepticism in the PCP for that to be fairly likely. The wider Tory vote is still very Brexit oriented. According to the latest Yougov 43% want to leave with no deal and a further 17% list that outcome as a second preference (pg 16).

edit - the deal in question being specifically May's and the question phrased as a 3 way referendum (remain / deal / leave)
 
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At least you are honest. The UK is clearly close to breaking into pieces if this is the prevailing view. It will be Scotland next and then the English and Welsh can toddle on themselves.

If people want to leave I'm absolutely fine with it only being England/Wales, losing Scotland and Northern Ireland is hardly going to be this cutting blow. In particular the latter costs billions every year and issues constantly rear their heads due to the history with Ireland.

At some point you have to ask if it's worth holding on to.
 
If people want to leave I'm absolutely fine with it only being England/Wales, losing Scotland and Northern Ireland is hardly going to be this cutting blow. In particular the latter costs billions every year and issues constantly rear their heads due to the history with Ireland.

At some point you have to ask if it's worth holding on to.
Exactly the kind of attitude that makes every nation in the UK hate England.
 
If people want to leave I'm absolutely fine with it only being England/Wales, losing Scotland and Northern Ireland is hardly going to be this cutting blow. In particular the latter costs billions every year and issues constantly rear their heads due to the history with Ireland.

At some point you have to ask if it's worth holding on to.

So the UK is of no value to you whatsoever and the other nations within the UK are of no benefit currently to England and actually are nothing but a drain on resources. Well fair play to you to being honest I guess.
 
Exactly the kind of attitude that makes every nation in the UK hate England.

Perhaps it is best if we go our separate ways then, and we'll see how well they all do outside of the shackles of evil old England.

I'm sure it will be glory and prosperity all round.
 
At least you are honest. The UK is clearly close to breaking into pieces if this is the prevailing view. It will be Scotland next and then the English and Welsh can toddle on themselves.

What would NI do on their own? Would they unite with the Rep Ire? That would be amazing.
 
Perhaps it is best if we go our separate ways then, and we'll see how well they all do outside of the shackles of evil old England.

I'm sure it will be glory and prosperity all round.
I'm sure it won't be. But why on earth would any country want to be 'hung on to' by the English/British empire? What a pathetic existence.
 
You are quite right. The problem is that most people in the rest of the UK (this is how it appears) - particularly those in power - do not give a toss about Ireland or NI and have been totally tripped up by the border issue because none of them gave it a single thought. The fact that there still appear to be calls for a no-deal from many sadly proves that now they do know about the border, they just do not care what happens over here and would happily plough on ahead with a no-deal knowingly destroying our economy in NI and endangering our hard won peace.

As somebody from a broadly unionist background (though I am fairly neutral about it all generally) I have to wonder if other people from my own background will start realising that the rest of the UK couldn't give a feck about us and will start to question 'our precious union' which only appears to be there to further the interests of (little) England. Hense why calls for a united Ireland are growing.

How does it further the interests of England though?
 
So the UK is of no value to you whatsoever and the other nations within the UK are of no benefit currently to England and actually are nothing but a drain on resources. Well fair play to you to being honest I guess.

They provide benefits, I just don't think they outweigh the current costs. With the likes of Scotland & Wales that is much more debatable, but with Northern Ireland in particular? I'm sorry but it's very difficult to see what they provide to the UK other than border headaches, tensions and billions every year. Of course it should be supported if they genuinely want to remain part of the UK, but if that changes I'm certainly not going to be overly upset about it.

If Northern Ireland wants to stay then fine, great we'll move forward as a union, but if there is ever a genuine majority that want independence then fantastic, let's make that happen if they really want it. I honestly think the Republic wouldn't be so keen though, considering how much it would be costing them.
 
Speaking of Cameron, this doesn't get old:



To be fair, things were remarkably stable under Cameron's coalition with the Liberals and even during his second term with a majority.

The utter chaos started when May took over. Now I know that it was a Cameron government called the referendum, but it was TM that harped on about 'strong and stable' instead of Corbyn's 'coalition of chaos'

I miss the old days of moderate Labour and moderate Tories. Its too much left vs right now.
 
I'm sure it won't be. But why on earth would any country want to be 'hung on to' by the English/British empire? What a pathetic existence.

You realise we haven't been an Empire for a little while, right? Empires don't usually allow parts of said Empire to vote on whether they want to remain in a union with them.
 
To be fair, things were remarkably stable under Cameron's coalition with the Liberals and even during his second term with a majority.

The utter chaos started when May took over. Now I know that it was a Cameron government called the referendum, but it was TM that harped on about 'strong and stable' instead of Corbyn's 'coalition of chaos'

I miss the old days of moderate Labour and moderate Tories. Its too much left vs right now.

Well that tweet which is quite infamous now was after Cameron's coalition with the Liberals. In all honesty the chaos started under Cameron when he ceded to more harder right wing in his faction. Blame starts with him, I think he would be just as bad as May.
 
Only England and Wales voted for Brexit so presumably the majority there feel that it furthers their interests. Scotland and NI both voted against it for the opposite reason.

It doesn't though, the majority made a big mistake. Particularly in Wales where the EU has spent a lot of money on various development projects.

Brexit doesn't benefit England anymore than it does Scotland or Northern Ireland.
 
The outcome of the agreement was inevitable in my view. Prior to the negotiations the only thing I couldn't work out was how they solved the Irish border and they came up with the backstop. Otherwise it is exactly as I thought.
If the UK want to leave, they can't have the benefits even though Brexiters apparently expect them without any of the conditions.

May well be a poor PM but I don't see what any other PM could have done and even though she was supposed to be a Remainer, firstly she clearly dislikes foreigners and secondly I think she has actually tried to do her best for the UK.
Her mistake is pretending to the British people that any other outcome was possible.

Getting rid of May will probably make things worse. No deal becoming almost certain imo.
I think the outcome was inevitable given everything that had preceeded it. The mistake the UK government made was right at the start of the process when it put reaching an agreement with the EU at the heart of its plans, and the EU gleefully accepted this gift - it responded by taking the position that nothing was agreed until everything was agreed, which was basically an impossible proposition.

I thought from the outset that we should have taken the opposite tack - i.e. gone with the working assumption that there wouldn't be a deal, outlined exactly what that would mean for all parties, and spent the intervening time planning for that. In essence, to prepare for a 'hard' Brexit, whilst working to reach agreements on specific issues to mitigate its effects. As a negotiating position, that would have given us significantly more leverage, and would probably have resulted in a more sensible process where both sides sought to make progress on the issues where they could reach agreement, understanding that there would still be areas which would need to be resolved long after Brexit had happened.

Oddly enough, that kind of approach is still one of the possible outcomes, albeit with a lot of time that could have been spent preparing for it having been wasted (and the sense that it will have happened by accident as the UK lost control of the negotiations).

Regarding the Irish border question, could the UK not simply have taken the position from the outset that this was a bilateral issue between the UK and Irish governments? Surely a hard border only exists if the nations on either side of it put the infrastructure in place to make it a reality. I did see somewhere an explanation of why this might not have been a realistic option for the UK, but I've forgotten what the reasoning was (it wasn't anything to do with EU rules or the single market).
 
The United Kingdom of London and other profitable cities.

There's a difference between 'get rid of anything unprofitable' and looking at Northern Ireland as a part of the UK with a unique, more troubling past compared to the rest, and a part which in particular is difficult to maintain and costs billions as a result.

If there is will to join with the Rep. of Ireland, I don't think that should be resisted too much in the way that we did with Scotland.
 
To be fair, things were remarkably stable under Cameron's coalition with the Liberals and even during his second term with a majority.

The utter chaos started when May took over. Now I know that it was a Cameron government called the referendum, but it was TM that harped on about 'strong and stable' instead of Corbyn's 'coalition of chaos'

I miss the old days of moderate Labour and moderate Tories. Its too much left vs right now.

Cameron called for a referendum. That was the most bizzare, stupid thing to do for a so called "stable" PM