Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

[Paul the Wolf]

The EU have agreed a WA among the 27. In agreeing it and declaring the backstop temporary they must have a concept of how the border issue may be resolve with the final trade deal. Else why agree the WA.

No-one has the solution, otherwise it would already be there. CU/SM would solve it, the EU also suggested the border in the Irish Sea. The Final trade deal will take years, maybe something will be possible by then.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

It's actually daft. The UK takes a decision and everyone has to change at the exception of the UK who for some reason is the only one not making compromises, not accepting the consequences of its actions and not offering any alternatives.

Welcome to Britain

 

[Honest John]

If British politicians want to keep refusing simple realities to the point of a no deal Brexit then that's sad for everyone, but I don't think it can be helped. The British position is that they want 1+1 to be 3. You can't negotiate like that, you can't accomodate such a position any further.
The backstop itself is already a helping hand from Brussels, because it allows both parties to negotiate a future trade deal while assuming that the biggest obstacle of all will somehow be solved, but you can't set a fantasy expiration date when there is no solution in sight.

It is obvious that the future trade deal will have to take the form of a customs union. It won’t be Norway or Canada. It will be the UK deal, unique because of the GFA. With it the UK will probably have to sacrifice third party trade deals or at least have them truncated and the EU will have to make a special case with its red lines.

 

[Cheesy]

It is obvious that the future trade deal will have to take the form of a customs union. It won’t be Norway or Canada. It will be the UK deal, unique because of the GFA. With it the UK will probably have to sacrifice third party trade deals or at least have them truncated and the EU will have to make a special case with its red lines.

And why should the EU allow it to be anything other than the current customs union which suits them perfectly?

 

[Honest John]

No-one has the solution, otherwise it would already be there. CU/SM would solve it, the EU also suggested the border in the Irish Sea. The Final trade deal will take years, maybe something will be possible by then.

So if the UK accepts the WA in current form and the Backstop is invoked because of delays in a FTA then the EU will have to compromise on its rules. The UK will have all the benefits of membership and won’t have to pay a penny for it while at the same time shutting off our waters to everyone. So if the EU can envisage making that compromise then, why can’t it move now to get the WA deal done?

 

[2cents]

 

[Honest John]

And why should the EU allow it to be anything other than the current customs union which suits them perfectly?

Because of the GFA. It’s unique to the UK and Ireland. They can sell that to the rest of the block instead of levering the Irish situation to force the UK to reconsider.

 

[Cheesy]

Because of the GFA. It’s unique to the UK and Ireland. They can sell that to the rest of the block instead of levering the Irish situation to force the UK to reconsider.

But why will they reconsider the current arrangement? They have no reason to! The only argument the GFA strengthens is ones that argue for us either remaining within the EU or ensuring there is no hard border.

 

[Cheesy]

Very interesting stuff. Still find it astonishing Remain weren't highlighting this in 2016. Like...genuinely, all the clear, obvious arguments were there at the time.

 

[Smores]

It's actually daft. The UK takes a decision and everyone has to change at the exception of the UK who for some reason is the only one not making compromises, not accepting the consequences of its actions and not offering any alternatives.

From TV and radio I'm 90% sure that quite a few leave voters don't understand that the backstop is down to us and not the EU.

 

[Honest John]

But why will they reconsider the current arrangement? They have no reason to! The only argument the GFA strengthens is ones that argue for us either remaining within the EU or ensuring there is no hard border.

They passed A50 into law and it does not take account of the GFA. So the EU bears some responsibility for the impass.

 

[Cheesy]

They passed A50 into law and it does not take account of the GFA. So the EU bears some responsibility for the impass.

Could you imagine the scenes that would've occurred if the EU had tried to actively prevent us from leaving?

 

[sullydnl]

It's actually daft. The UK takes a decision and everyone has to change at the exception of the UK who for some reason is the only one not making compromises, not accepting the consequences of its actions and not offering any alternatives.

The sheer level of British exceptionalism that Brexit has exposed within the UK's political class is staggering.

 

[Honest John]

Could you imagine the scenes that would've occurred if the EU had tried to actively prevent us from leaving?

I think May would have been voted out and A Brexiteer made PM.

 

[Smores]

They passed A50 into law and it does not take account of the GFA. So the EU bears some responsibility for the impass.

But there's a number of options that would be compatible with the GFA and they've presented them, we just don't want any of them. It's not done to the EU to ratify if our government understood the basics before approving it.

 

[Honest John]

But there's a number of options that would be compatible with the GFA and they've presented them, we just don't want any of them. It's not done to the EU to ratify if our government understood the basics before approving it.

Look I didn’t vote leave but I do have some sympathy with leavers that say we need a FTA and the right to strike deals of our own. No problem, just crash out on WTO rules. Enter left stage the GFA which was overlooked by the EU in A50. So there was EU legislation that failed to take account of all its member states. So now the UK can’t leave on wto without going against the GFA. Some bespoke arrangement is necessary. Else you are saying that A50 is available to everyone except the UK. If the UK invokes A50 it has to accept an EU construct in the form of a CU and if it accepts that, it can’t do its own deals.

 

[stevoc]

It's fairly simple, isn't it?
a) The four freedoms are the very core principle of the EU.
b) Either the UK accepts the four freedoms or it will have to have a hard border with the EU and thus Ireland to enforce the differences.
c) The GFA says there can't be a hard border with Ireland and the UK.

You think the EU and it's 27 remaining members should abandon the very core principles of their union for a state that's leaving the bloc? Because the UK is trying to push for something that violates their own treaty with Ireland?
It's up the UK to either accept regulatory alignment with the EU, modify/abandon the GFA or come up with some magical solution.

They seem to have spent the last 2 years hoping for option 3 to appear.

 

[stevoc]

No you don’t understand. There will be no deal without some flexibility on the backstop. Blithely suggesting that it’s a mess so let’s just stop it is naive. There will be an outcry. And much as I do not like the situation I am starting to get pissed off with the EU. What is this? The fecking Hotel California? What is the point of A50 if it can never be enacted without the leaver suffering severe punitive consequence? Ireland will be much worse off with a no deal so they need to move. And now I hear fecking Blair is tramping around Europe canvassing every man and his dog to hold firm because a 2nd referendum is inevitable.

It's a unique situation it isn't the EU's fault that the UK has signed an international peace agreement with another EU member that basically makes it impossible for the UK (specifically NI) to leave the EU in any meaningful way without breaking it.

This should have been considered before calling the referendum or even before triggering article 50 or at any point over the last 3 years.

 

[caid]

This is going round in circles with the same old silly boy argument. It won’t solve anything. The eu agreed a WA, with some other arrangement on the backstop it passes parliament. If they are serious then bloody well talk about it. No deal is the default legal position and May won’t take it off the table. So Ireland needs to think about it.

We have, were preparing for a no deal brexit atm.

the sense is that there was a referendum and however stupid we think the people who voted to leave are, the genie is out of the bottle and it won’t be put back. If they are fecked over I truly believe lives will be lost. But hey if that’s worth avoiding any economic hit then so be it eh. What will the questions be? Do you seriously think that 17.4 million people after having been called stupid for three years are suddenly going to admit the error of their ways and vote against leaving in some way.

What like in Northern Ireland if a hard brexit goes through?

Look I didn’t vote leave but I do have some sympathy with leavers that say we need a FTA and the right to strike deals of our own. No problem, just crash out on WTO rules. Enter left stage the GFA which was overlooked by the EU in A50. So there was EU legislation that failed to take account of all its member states. So now the UK can’t leave on wto without going against the GFA. Some bespoke arrangement is necessary. Else you are saying that A50 is available to everyone except the UK. If the UK invokes A50 it has to accept an EU construct in the form of a CU and if it accepts that, it can’t do its own deals.

A50 is available to everyone, its just complicated to pull Northern Ireland out of it. The English parliament unilatteraly pulling them out of europe against their wishes while consulting with one side exclusively isn't a sound strategy to go about doing it. The entire UK staying in the Customs Union was a way to keep the DUP onside, they voted it against it anyway so drop it and put the customs border in the Irish Sea. UK can make its own trade agreements, job done.

 

[Abizzz]

They passed A50 into law and it does not take account of the GFA. So the EU bears some responsibility for the impass.

So every EU law should have clauses for every eventuality of every member state? Given most member states don't have just one land border with another member state but multiple with different histories between each relation any law would need to have 10s of thousands of clauses (I'm not exaggerating).

Anyways, A50 and the GFA have very little to do with each other. It is the state that the UK achieves after A50 is over that is breaching the GFA, not A50. And if it didn't do that A50 wouldn't deliver a way to leave the EU. It's solely on the UK to achieve a state of things that doesn't breach agreements the UK has entered into.

 

[Foxbatt]

Cameron the bloody fool got merked. He never expected to win a majority and was bluffing about the referendum and he thought the he had to have a coalition with the LidDems, who would stop the referendum.

 

[Wibble]

They seem to have spent the last 2 years hoping for option 3 to appear.

Solution unicorn likes this.

 

[Barca84]

As long as it’s a week in margate

Margate is actually on the up. Lots of creatives heading in that direction...an interesting place.

 

[GloryHunter07]

the sense is that there was a referendum and however stupid we think the people who voted to leave are, the genie is out of the bottle and it won’t be put back. If they are fecked over I truly believe lives will be lost. But hey if that’s worth avoiding any economic hit then so be it eh. What will the questions be? Do you seriously think that 17.4 million people after having been called stupid for three years are suddenly going to admit the error of their ways and vote against leaving in some way.

If people lose jobs post Brexit, lives will be lost.

 

[Mb194dc]

It's coming out confirmed today, again, that the EU won't remove the backstop.

So we wait to see the next moves from the government. There is no plan at present.

Grieve amendment could be interesting if it provides for withdrawing article 50 rather than extending it. I do not believe the EU27 will agree an extension except for a second referendum or general election.

The government could well face another no confidence motion from Corbyn soon if they don't have any plan other than running down time to no deal.

 

[JPRouve]

Look I didn’t vote leave but I do have some sympathy with leavers that say we need a FTA and the right to strike deals of our own. No problem, just crash out on WTO rules. Enter left stage the GFA which was overlooked by the EU in A50. So there was EU legislation that failed to take account of all its member states. So now the UK can’t leave on wto without going against the GFA. Some bespoke arrangement is necessary. Else you are saying that A50 is available to everyone except the UK. If the UK invokes A50 it has to accept an EU construct in the form of a CU and if it accepts that, it can’t do its own deals.

The UK wants to be out of the EU, wants the unilateral ability to make trade deals, freedom to implement divergent rules but also don't want a border with ROI, don't want freedom of movements, don't want to respect the ECJ and don't want to be separated from NI with which they already have a maritime boundary. And somehow you talk about A50, which is totally irrelevant, and the EU preventing the UK from leaving. The UK is preventing itself from leaving by not accepting the consequences of its actions.

 

[Adisa]

The UK wants to be out of the EU, wants the unilateral ability to make trade deals, freedom to implement divergent rules but also don't want a border with ROI, don't want freedom of movements, don't want to respect the ECJ and don't want to be separated from NI with which they already have a maritime boundary. And somehow you talk about A50, which is totally irrelevant, and the EU preventing the UK from leaving. The UK is preventing itself from leaving by not accepting the consequences of its actions.

Bingo.

 

[Massive Spanner]

This one is both hilarious and depressing.

EU: posted workers must be given the same pay and conditions as local workers.
UK: You're kidding! The whole POINT of posted workers is to undercut the locals and undermine their employment rights.

 

[Honest John]

The UK wants to be out of the EU, wants the unilateral ability to make trade deals, freedom to implement divergent rules but also don't want a border with ROI, don't want freedom of movements, don't want to respect the ECJ and don't want to be separated from NI with which they already have a maritime boundary. And somehow you talk about A50, which is totally irrelevant, and the EU preventing the UK from leaving. The UK is preventing itself from leaving by not accepting the consequences of its actions.

Why have 27 EU countries signed up to the WA if they say they have the ROI,s interest in mind? Either they are confident of a solution to the border problem appearing during the Future Relationship agreement or they see no solution and fully intend to keep the UK tied to the EU in perpetuity. In which case the Brexiteers have called it correctly.

 

[Massive Spanner]

Why have 27 EU countries signed up to the WA if they say they have the ROI,s interest in mind? Either they are confident of a solution to the border problem appearing during the Future Relationship agreement or they see no solution and fully intend to keep the UK tied to the EU in perpetuity. In which case the Brexiteers have called it correctly.

The EU don't see the border problem as theirs to solve, because it's the UK who are causing the problem by voting to leave and now refusing to adhere to EU rules in order to ensure the border isn't there. They've already negotiated with the EU to try stop there being the border, and the UK went and rejected that too. Exactly what more are the EU supposed to do here?

That bolded part is the kind of silly mentality that's caused all of this mess. Blame the EU for the problems you've caused.

 

[mitChley]

the sense is that there was a referendum and however stupid we think the people who voted to leave are, the genie is out of the bottle and it won’t be put back. If they are fecked over I truly believe lives will be lost. But hey if that’s worth avoiding any economic hit then so be it eh. What will the questions be? Do you seriously think that 17.4 million people after having been called stupid for three years are suddenly going to admit the error of their ways and vote against leaving in some way.

According to the government if we have no-deal Brexit then lives will also be lost

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit-suicide-warning-if-exit-turns-chaotic-rjlhwb2n0

 

[Kentonio]

Why have 27 EU countries signed up to the WA if they say they have the ROI,s interest in mind? Either they are confident of a solution to the border problem appearing during the Future Relationship agreement or they see no solution and fully intend to keep the UK tied to the EU in perpetuity. In which case the Brexiteers have called it correctly.

Typical that the UK expect the EU to provide solutions to a UK based problem that is only occuring because of the UKs own decisions. Leavers clamour to 'take back control' yet apparently are completely incapable of sorting out their own problems.

 

[RedChip]

Most of them probably just see NI as a financial burden and nothing else.

It isn't a fair question though, is it? How much do people in any one area of the UK care about another area, hundreds of miles away? For example, do people in Hampshire really care about Lincolnshire?

It is up to the government to take care of all the areas and people of the UK, especially those with significant issues like NI.

 

[Massive Spanner]

It isn't a fair question though, is it? How much do people in any one area of the UK care about another area, hundreds of miles away? For example, do people in Hampshire really care about Lincolnshire?

It is up to the government to take care of all the areas and people of the UK, especially those with significant issues like NI.

I was talking about the MPs

 

[JPRouve]

Why have 27 EU countries signed up to the WA if they say they have the ROI,s interest in mind? Either they are confident of a solution to the border problem appearing during the Future Relationship agreement or they see no solution and fully intend to keep the UK tied to the EU in perpetuity. In which case the Brexiteers have called it correctly.

You realize that ROI is one of the 27 EU countries, you think that they don't have their own interest in mind? ROI are preparing for No deal, what they are not prepared to do is to go back on the GFA, the UK decided to leave and not respect NI's wishes so they will be the only one taking that responsibility.

The UK are still free to leave but it will be without deal, with a backstop for NI or with NI in a different custom area. After all, Brexit means Brexit.

 

[RedChip]

I was talking about the MPs

That's not clear in your text, but even they cannot be blamed for prioritising the immediate interests of their constituency. Gov't, on the other hand, should care.

 

[Smores]

Look I didn’t vote leave but I do have some sympathy with leavers that say we need a FTA and the right to strike deals of our own. No problem, just crash out on WTO rules. Enter left stage the GFA which was overlooked by the EU in A50. So there was EU legislation that failed to take account of all its member states. So now the UK can’t leave on wto without going against the GFA. Some bespoke arrangement is necessary. Else you are saying that A50 is available to everyone except the UK. If the UK invokes A50 it has to accept an EU construct in the form of a CU and if it accepts that, it can’t do its own deals.

Well yeah that's exactly it but that's down to the GFA not the EU or A50. The moment the GFA was signed the options became limited to a customs union or a border down the irish sea.
A50 works fine but it's implementation is always going to be constrained by the countries own laws and treaties. Apart from A50 saying 'nah ignore a border feck it it'll be reet' there's not much else it can do.

As far as I'm aware the soft border down the irish sea and checking at ports doesn't go against the GFA(?) and most polling I've seen lean towards it being accepted by the NI people. Why should the EU bend over when there's such an obvious solution at hand?

 

[Rajma]

@Honest John having problems with a simple logic.

1) UK signed to all those international treaties
2) It now unilaterally withdraws itself from one of them
3) It still has to comply with all other existing agreements
4) Onus is on the UK to not break other international treaties it has singed up for, especially, as there are solutions out there

"Brexiters were right all long", get a grip.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

So it is a Hotel California

No. That’s such a stupid catchphrase. Did Farage come up with it? Clearly countries are able to leave the EU. Britain will more than likely end up leaving despite their incompetence in getting Brexit across the line. It is possible to leave. It’s just a very stupid thing to do.

 

[Honest John]

So every EU law should have clauses for every eventuality of every member state? Given most member states don't have just one land border with another member state but multiple with different histories between each relation any law would need to have 10s of thousands of clauses (I'm not exaggerating).

Anyways, A50 and the GFA have very little to do with each other. It is the state that the UK achieves after A50 is over that is breaching the GFA, not A50. And if it didn't do that A50 wouldn't deliver a way to leave the EU. It's solely on the UK to achieve a state of things that doesn't breach agreements the UK has entered into.

The GFA isn't like labelling on soup. What if the UK was not a member of the EU when the GFA was signed. Who's responsibility would it have been to keep the border open and find a solution. A50 overlooked an international peace treaty and even if the UK eventually stays in the EU, that should be legally addressed.