Legally binding changes
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
ERG view, prediction of how many votes the government loses by tomorrow anyone?
As a kid I had a teacher who once said "If you won't like the answer don't ask the question". I remember thinking that it was weird but only understood it later, when I faced this scenario.
Precisely
MPs currently tearing Lidington a new one and he's giving some pretty nonsensical answers
Think we already know, so the circus restarts tomorrow at least for another 18 days.
Between 50 and 150?... Depends how many abstain rather then vote against?
May making a joint-statement/holding a press conference now with Juncker.
Ive got a sneaky feelingg she may somehow pull this off.
Are you watching May's face on Sky News?
No - why?
She doesn't look too confident.
Juncker says tomorrow is the last chance- no more negotiations or reassurances.
Juncker's face when May was lying about unilateral withdrawal was the better picture. Not the least surprised she's willing to flat out lie though
Yes. She repeated the same robotic speech she has said in the HoC and to the press numerous times. I think Juncker knows it's not going to pass the HoC and so does May. But then again, nothing will.
May statement in full.
Last November, after two years of hard-fought negotiations, I agreed a Brexit deal with the EU that I passionately believe delivers on the decision taken by the British people to leave the European Union.
Over the last four months, I have made the case for that deal in Westminster and across the UK.
I stand by what that deal achieves for my country.
It means we regain control of our laws, by ending the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice in the UK.
Regain control of our borders, by ending free movement.
Regain control of our money, by ending vast annual payments to the EU.
The end of the Common Agricultural Policy and the Common Fisheries Policy for British farmers and fishermen.
An independent trade policy.
And the deal sets us on course for a good future relationship with our friends and allies in the EU.
A close economic partnership that is good for business.
Ongoing security co-operation to keep our peoples safe.
The deal honours the referendum result and is good for both the UK and the EU.
But there was a clear concern in Parliament over one issue in particular: the Northern Ireland backstop.
Having an insurance policy to guarantee that there will never be a hard border in Northern Ireland is absolutely right – it honours the UK’s solemn commitments in the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement.
But if we ever have to use that insurance policy, it cannot become a permanent arrangement and it is not the template for our future relationship.
The deal that MPs voted on in January was not strong enough in making that clear – and legally binding changes were needed to set that right.
Today we have agreed them.
First, a joint instrument with comparable legal weight to the Withdrawal Agreement will guarantee that the EU cannot act with the intent of applying the backstop indefinitely.
If they do, it can be challenged through arbitration and if they are found to be in breach the UK can suspend the backstop.
The joint instrument also gives a legal commitment that whatever replaces the backstop does not need to replicate it.
And it entrenches in legally-binding form the commitments made in the exchange of letters with Presidents Tusk and Juncker in January.
Second, the UK and the EU have made a joint statement in relation to the Political Declaration.
It sets out a number of commitments to enhance and expedite the process of negotiating and bringing into force the future relationship.
And it makes a legal commitment that the UK and the EU will begin work immediately to replace the backstop with alternative arrangements by the end of December 2020.
There will be a specific negotiating track on alternative arrangements from the very start of the next phase of negotiations.
It will consider facilitations and technologies – both those currently ready and emerging.
The UK’s position will be informed by the three domestic groups announced last week – for technical experts, MPs, and business and trade unions.
Third, alongside the joint instrument on the Withdrawal Agreement, the United Kingdom Government will make a Unilateral Declaration that if the backstop comes into use and discussions on our future relationship break down so that there is no prospect of subsequent agreement, it is the position of the United Kingdom that there would be nothing to prevent the UK instigating measures that would ultimately dis-apply the backstop.
Unilateral Declarations are commonly used by states alongside the ratification of treaties.
The Attorney General will set out in legal analysis the meaning of the joint instrument and unilateral declaration to Parliament.
Tomorrow the House of Commons will debate the improved deal that these legal changes have created.
I will speak in more detail about them when I open that debate.
MPs were clear that legal changes were needed to the backstop.
Today we have secured legal changes.
Now is the time to come together, to back this improved Brexit deal, and to deliver on the instruction of the British people.
Last November, after two years of hard-fought negotiations, I agreed a Brexit deal with the EU that I passionately believe delivers on the decision taken by the British people to leave the European Union.
Over the last four months, I have made the case for that deal in Westminster and across the UK.
I stand by what that deal achieves for my country.
It means we regain control of our laws, by ending the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice in the UK.
Regain control of our borders, by ending free movement.
Regain control of our money, by ending vast annual payments to the EU.
The end of the Common Agricultural Policy and the Common Fisheries Policy for British farmers and fishermen.
An independent trade policy.
And the deal sets us on course for a good future relationship with our friends and allies in the EU.
A close economic partnership that is good for business.
Ongoing security co-operation to keep our peoples safe.
The deal honours the referendum result and is good for both the UK and the EU.
But there was a clear concern in Parliament over one issue in particular: the Northern Ireland backstop.
Having an insurance policy to guarantee that there will never be a hard border in Northern Ireland is absolutely right – it honours the UK’s solemn commitments in the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement.
But if we ever have to use that insurance policy, it cannot become a permanent arrangement and it is not the template for our future relationship.
The deal that MPs voted on in January was not strong enough in making that clear – and legally binding changes were needed to set that right.
Today we have agreed them.
First, a joint instrument with comparable legal weight to the Withdrawal Agreement will guarantee that the EU cannot act with the intent of applying the backstop indefinitely.
If they do, it can be challenged through arbitration and if they are found to be in breach the UK can suspend the backstop.
The joint instrument also gives a legal commitment that whatever replaces the backstop does not need to replicate it.
And it entrenches in legally-binding form the commitments made in the exchange of letters with Presidents Tusk and Juncker in January.
Second, the UK and the EU have made a joint statement in relation to the Political Declaration.
It sets out a number of commitments to enhance and expedite the process of negotiating and bringing into force the future relationship.
And it makes a legal commitment that the UK and the EU will begin work immediately to replace the backstop with alternative arrangements by the end of December 2020.
There will be a specific negotiating track on alternative arrangements from the very start of the next phase of negotiations.
It will consider facilitations and technologies – both those currently ready and emerging.
The UK’s position will be informed by the three domestic groups announced last week – for technical experts, MPs, and business and trade unions.
Third, alongside the joint instrument on the Withdrawal Agreement, the United Kingdom Government will make a Unilateral Declaration that if the backstop comes into use and discussions on our future relationship break down so that there is no prospect of subsequent agreement, it is the position of the United Kingdom that there would be nothing to prevent the UK instigating measures that would ultimately dis-apply the backstop.
Unilateral Declarations are commonly used by states alongside the ratification of treaties.
The Attorney General will set out in legal analysis the meaning of the joint instrument and unilateral declaration to Parliament.
Tomorrow the House of Commons will debate the improved deal that these legal changes have created.
I will speak in more detail about them when I open that debate.
MPs were clear that legal changes were needed to the backstop.
Today we have secured legal changes.
Now is the time to come together, to back this improved Brexit deal, and to deliver on the instruction of the British people.
The Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, has responded to May’s statement, saying her “negotiations have failed”.
This evening’s agreement with the European Commission does not contain anything approaching the changes Theresa May promised Parliament, and whipped her MPs to vote for.
Since her Brexit deal was so overwhelmingly rejected, the prime minister has recklessly run down the clock, failed to effectively negotiate with the EU and refused to find common ground for a deal Parliament could support.
That’s why MPs must reject this deal tomorrow.
Presume he thought the backstop would be removed or Corbyn hopeful he gets his no deal Brexit.
This evening’s agreement with the European Commission does not contain anything approaching the changes Theresa May promised Parliament, and whipped her MPs to vote for.
Since her Brexit deal was so overwhelmingly rejected, the prime minister has recklessly run down the clock, failed to effectively negotiate with the EU and refused to find common ground for a deal Parliament could support.
That’s why MPs must reject this deal tomorrow.
Presume he thought the backstop would be removed or Corbyn hopeful he gets his no deal Brexit.
Noticed that. Makes one think he's not too bothered about no deal, rightly or wrongly.
As for unilateral withdrawal, I'm not an international lawyer, but history shows that treaties come and treaties go, no such thing as forever. I'd take the deal.
They could unilaterally move to end the backstop provided they uphold their obligations under the GFA and in all circumstances avoid a hard border? I'm confused. That sound like they could move to end the backstop provided they uphold the principles of the backstop.
Can someone explain to me (like I'm stupid) what has actually changed?
Oh right. Is it even the sort of nothing May can sell as something? Or just the sort of nothing that has wasted more of everyone's time?
I ask this with a horrible sense of what the answer will be.
Is the EU being complicit in letting us renege on GFA? Very ambiguous. Not the best basis to try and build a new relationship with the EU.
I don't see parliament agreeing. It is just a change of words but the backstop will not be removed and will not have a time limit, it's not possible and never has been. She's desperate for this deal to be approved but this was the last throw of the dice.
Unless parliament realise that no deal really is catastrophic they might just back her deal at the last minute.
Reminds me of a classic religious text, in that you could use it to argue any way you want. Not convinced by the backstop theory, five years time, you could bring in a hard border, blame someone else for having to bring it in, and claim it's not technically a hard border anyway. And things might be totally different by then in multiple ways. I'd take the deal.
nothing, it's like saying "i don't eat chocolate, but i can eat any chocolate provided it contains no chocolate"
The sensible thing would be to take the deal and negotiate the future relationship thereafter but... there are are so many different factions in the HoC all with their own agenda, none of them are for the good of the country.
tick tock mainly.
In perpetuity my arse. Like something out of a science fantasy novel, it doesn't exist.
What does unilaterally mean and what's the opposite of it?
You are 100% and that's the problem. You say it yourself. "If they still want to,..."
High skilled employees in the EU are not starving, they are well at their country and they have a lot of other countries in the EU where they can go earning the same or more than the UK (nordic countries, Germany, France, Netherlands, Belgium, etc...
UK is attractive because it has high salaries (like the mentioned countries), a good health care system (yes, NHS still a top health care) like the mentioned countries and many characteristics the same as those countries. But the main advantage is english. Is comfortable to reach your future job knowing the language or somewhat familiar with it instead of german, finish, danish, dutch, etc...
Out of the EU, you will still have that but you will not have the free of movement and any quotas, advantages and exceptions, will not move a collective that they are ok at their home. My doctors friends in Spain are ok in Spain even if they earn much less (don't forget that the pound had weakened a lot also) and if they move to the UK is for the FoM, no headaches to earn more.
It might work in several years when those quotas will be established and renowned for several years. But at the beginning, they will not be fond of an unstable situation, when they really don't need it and have other options
Making a decision by yourself
The opposite is kinda obvious when you know that
Ah yeah makes more sense now, I had an idea that's what it was, just wanted it clarifying.
What happens if, and probably when, May loses the vote tomorrow? The options aren't mutually exclusive but I'd guess that in order of most to least likely they are,
- No deal
- Delay
- New PM
- 2nd referendum
- General election
- Withdrawal of A50
So what time is the vote? Late in the evening presumably.
Nothing has changed.
Just more lies and subterfuge from May, surely the worst PM in modern history. The way this nothing has been delivered is something to behold, a staggeringly brazen "fraud".
I can see it actually hardening opposition to the deal.
Just more lies and subterfuge from May, surely the worst PM in modern history. The way this nothing has been delivered is something to behold, a staggeringly brazen "fraud".
I can see it actually hardening opposition to the deal.
Could be. People react badly to being peed on and told that it is raining.
And thats how we got here in the 1st place.
We got here by being pissed on by the Tories and the Tories convincing the public it was actually the EU that was urinating.
My guess, vote to delay brexit for a couple of months. May goes on a bunch of useless trips to Brussels. At the end, May presents same deal to parliament.
Only this time, it won't be possible to delay and it won't be possible to stay because EU elections would have happened.
Then it's really May's deal or we drive off a cliff.