Its like chosing between a power drill to the kneecap or a machette to the hand. I dont want either but am resigned to either one happening.
Brexited | the worst threads live the longest
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
No deal is much more likely than no Brexit anyway. A useless government and opposition are leading us there together.
It could, but not with May in charge which you guarantee by voting though her deal.
Personally, if I were you and was insulated from the effects of Brexit to a degree I'd be rooting for the pure drama that would be: May's deal being voted down, MP's rejecting no deal, and the EU rejecting an extension. The day it dawned on MP's that the only way to satisfy their vote on No Deal would be to revoke A50 would be amusing, if not terrifying for those of us who would have to deal with them argue that one out.
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Nobody's going to come out of this smelling of roses, but both major parties, for different reasons, are teetering on the brink of busting apart. The Tories however have been fighting the EU fight internally for years and they have a great instinct for survival, so as long as May goes and is perceived by the general populace to be doing the decent thing, they will retain power with a new, probably euro-sceptic leader who says "well that didn't work but the referendum result still stands so we dust ourselves down and 'go again".
Its not really naïve, probably unlikely, but not naïve it could work.
I expect more guidance from the EU on the likelihood of them granting (note granting) an extension will soon be forthcoming.
Wow, Cox says the legal risk remains the same. No way it passes now.
Beyond the legality of it, it seems to me there's very political reason to do it. There are enough idiots that think No Deal is a fantastic idea that the country wouldn't see it as 'doing the decent thing' as a whole. The Tories would haemorrhage voters to UKIP and a significant enough chunk of Tory MPs (backed by an overwhelmingly pro-Brexit membership) would cause havoc. May's only political quality is that she's a Tory party loyalist. She would never, ever do something so divisive as to risk ripping the party apart. If she gave the slightest toss about anything else we wouldn't be in this mess.
The only realistic route to A50 revocation over the next two weeks is the one I outlined above: MPs voting themselves in to a corner that the only way out of is calling it off. It is, I suspect, incredibly unlikely.
Fair play to Cox then, i thought he'd sell himself out but he's stood firm.
She might.
If her deal crashes tonight then I think she has to go because the two subsequent votes - plus Coopers amendment on Parliament taking control will effectively make her a by-stander.
A straightforward leadership election won't be tolerated and this time a VofNC in the government might get through.
So think about a GE in this situation. What on earth will the two main parties campaign on?
The thing is that the remain vote is simple and solid, it is not split. There's 16 million that don't have varying ideas of 'how to remain' where as the leave vote has many views regarding 'how to leave'.
The headbangers would want to go on a WTO ticket and not win many seats. Moderates may take the view that a soft Brexit is pretty-much pointless.
This new independent party - if it throws it's lot in with the Lib Dems, pulls more defectors from the two main parties then campaign's on a withdraw A50 ticket could be catapulted into power.
Just speculation I guess but nothing would surprise me now.
Why is June the real cliff edge ?
He had no choice to be honest if he values his professional integrity and the judgement of posterity. But good to see nonetheless as I feared he might be browbeaten into less explicit wording.
European elections follow which means Britain competes or finds another arrangement
European elections I think.
It's not, really.
It's an assumption that if HoC voted No May Deal, No No Deal, Ext over the next three days then they would seek a short term extension which the EU would only grant to before the European elections in June.
Until that's agreed it's a bit of a pipe dream.
But since A50 is due on the 29th , isn't this extension to June still to be approved by EU?
How can May possibly continue now?
The stage managed deception does not seem to have even lasted until Lunch time...
Just when you thought this process couldn't get any more farcical.
The stage managed deception does not seem to have even lasted until Lunch time...
Just when you thought this process couldn't get any more farcical.
I thought the EU elections were at the end of May?
<insert 'the end of May' joke here>
It does need to be signed off by the EU, yea.
How likely is a no deal?
They are. But maybe the UK will unilaterally postpone that too.
That revelation does mean that May and her cabinet have purposefully misled the public over the legal power of the new text doesn't it? She received no such legal advice to back up her words.
She should be held to account for that
She should be held to account for that
If an army of farages seems likely to enter Brussels, I think the EU will just straight no deal your asses.
In the pantheon of almighty clusterfcuks, this must now be pushing hard for a podium position.
Currently the most likely result.
And the likelihood of that actually going ahead? I mean.. won't MP's etc just block that in Parliament or can't they?
That's exactly how I see things panning out. From a spectator point of view it's fascinating but for the sake of the UK I also think that no deal is a real possibility and some people don't seem to realise how close they are to it or how bad it will be.
The legal default is no deal, I'm afraid.
Only by agreeing her deal or withdrawing A50
There is only two way to block it, cancel Brexit or strike a deal with the EU.
Even less likely than the WA being voted through.
They could in theory but its not enough to be united in opposition to something (no deal Brexit), to actually stop it they need to unite FOR something. That is what, at this point, they seem utterly unable to do. Whether it is May's deal, cancel Brexit, the Norway model, whatever. If any one thing could muster enough votes for MPs to say, this is what we will do, then no deal would be averted. But the only thing they can unite behind is a fantasy that isnt on offer. Which is no use to anyone.
Optimists might argue, at the 11th hour, when crisis is literally moments away, they will manage to agree on a course of action. But given the distance between many of them at this point, it is hard to see that happening.
Why do you say that when in your first sentence you say that you agree that a no deal will be rejected.
Pound has fallen and DUP rumoured not to be taking the deal
The vote on no deal is totally meaningless - to stop no deal there has to be a deal or cancel brexit.
At the moment my no deal likelihood meter is at 99.9%. Hopefully something will change.
It isn't totally meaningless because it is one of a package of 3 votes. It is then followed by the vote to request extension of A50 which is almost certain to be voted for.
Yes I fully understand that the EU would have to agree to this.
In the (likely) event they say no then the only option would be a second referendum.
What time is the vote tonight (UK time)?
The no deal vote is meaningless. The extension vote can be voted on but as there is no consensus in parliament as to which alternative direction to go the EU will almost certainly reject it.
Not even sure a referendum would be approved by parliament and even that would only solve anything if Remain won.
So at the end of the day it's no deal or Remain - because the only possible deal available had been rejected.
