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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
Paul the Wolf said:
The no deal vote is meaningless. The extension vote can be voted on but as there is no consensus in parliament as to which alternative direction to go the EU will almost certainly reject it.
Not even sure a referendum would be approved by parliament and even that would only solve anything if Remain won.
So at the end of the day it's no deal or Remain - because the only possible deal available had been rejected.
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Which is why I don't share either your opinion that you have to give in to May's brinkmanship today, or that the No Deal vote is pointless.

It might become pointless, because the risk of a No Deal Brexit through incompetence is so high, but there is an actionable, unilateral way in which Parliament can ensure that No Deal is not an option.

Constitutionally, I would be fascinated to know what the ramifications would be if MPs voted to shelve No Deal and then allowed the countdown to expire. Probably nothing as our system's so fecked, but you live in hope.
 
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Buster15 said:
It isn't totally meaningless because it is one of a package of 3 votes. It is then followed by the vote to request extension of A50 which is almost certain to be voted for.

Yes I fully understand that the EU would have to agree to this.
In the (likely) event they say no then the only option would be a second referendum.
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And what happens if leave wins again? Where do we go from there? Do we keep on going until the MP's get a result they're happy with?
A second referendum would cause more of a divide than the first, quite probably an irreversible divide. It's a huge mess at the moment in which absolutely no one can agree on how to move forward. An "accidental" no deal looks pretty likely in all fairness.
 
NinjaFletch said:
Which is why I don't share either your opinion that you have to give in to May's brinkmanship today, or that the No Deal vote is pointless.

It might become pointless, because the risk of a No Deal Brexit through incompetence is so high, but there is an actionable, unilateral way in which Parliament can ensure that No Deal is not an option.
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But if parliament have control over the future negotiations including possibly staying in the CU or SM....

What is the unilateral way to stop no deal?
 
Brownie85 said:
And what happens if leave wins again? Where do we go from there? Do we keep on going until the MP's get a result they're happy with?
A second referendum would cause more of a divide than the first, quite probably an irreversible divide. It's a huge mess at the moment in which absolutely no one can agree on how to move forward. An "accidental" no deal looks pretty likely in all fairness.
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Wouldn't that depend on what's on the ballot paper? If it's Mays deal or remain then you'd pass May's deal. The logic behind a second referendum is that we now know more about the outcome than we did before, that wouldn't be the case with subsequent repeated referendums so there's a clear distinction.
 
Smores said:
Wouldn't that depend on what's on the ballot paper? If it's Mays deal or remain then you'd pass May's deal. The logic behind a second referendum is that we now know more about the outcome than we did before, that wouldn't be the case with subsequent repeated referendums so there's a clear distinction.
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The issue is though, is that there's no majority for a second referendum in parliament, and i'd imagine, there's no real desire for one in the country either (most likely wrong on that, i really don't know for sure). Labour could back a second referendum, but i'd imagine there would be quite a few that would abstain or rebel against it, i think 40 or so MP's were rumoured to be dead against it.

There's no majority for anything it seems, and the government won't call a GE or revoke A50, so are they deliberately pushing for no deal? The whole thing is an absolute mess
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Yes but that's what I was saying, to stop no deal either there has to be a deal or you cancel brexit.
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Yes, I know. But that means the No Deal vote isn't pointless, because it is something Parliament does have control over.

If they feck it up from there, which is a possibility, then that's one thing, but it's not like Canute trying to stop the tide from coming in.

Honestly, what I'm more confused about is Brexiteers who are keen for a deal rejecting this one on (if we're being honest) pretty invented grounds.
 
NinjaFletch said:
Yes, I know. But that means the No Deal vote isn't pointless, because it is something Parliament does have control over.

If they feck it up from there, which is a possibility, then that's one thing, but it's not like Canute trying to stop the tide from coming in.

Honestly, what I'm more confused about is Brexiteer's who are keen for a deal rejecting this one on (if we're being honest) pretty invented grounds.
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I agree with you there.

All we hear is "no deal is unacceptable" and "it'll be disastrous" yet they have a deal on the table that they won't accept, but they don't want no deal either.
Labour reject it because it doesn't meet their 5 (or is it 6) requirements - but theres no majority for their version of brexit in parliament. I understand the backstop is an issue, but nothing can be done on our future relationship until the deal is passed.
 
NinjaFletch said:
Yes, I know. But that means the No Deal vote isn't pointless, because it is something Parliament does have control over.

If they feck it up from there, which is a possibility, then that's one thing, but it's not like Canute trying to stop the tide from coming in.

Honestly, what I'm more confused about is Brexiteers who are keen for a deal rejecting this one on (if we're being honest) pretty invented grounds.
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Because there is no magic solution to release the UK from the backstop and the UK will be tied in because of the GFA - Remainers of course want to stay but this deal is the next best thing after a BINO because you won't totally leave the EU but neither Remainers or Brexiters like the deal.
But whatever the final outcome is, there'll be many unhappy people, probably everyone.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Because there is no magic solution to release the UK from the backstop and the UK will be tied in because of the GFA - Remainers of course want to stay but this deal is the next best thing after a BINO because you won't totally leave the EU but neither Remainers or Brexiters like the deal.
But whatever the final outcome is, there'll be many unhappy people, probably everyone.
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I agree, but that's what I don't understand. The opposition of Remainers makes sense; we have a better deal so why do we want a worse one? In many respects there's a bit of perverse logic to No Deal, too, as long as you're happy to rip up the GFA. At least, those Brexiteers are happy to admit that their hatred of foreigners trumps any kind of actual economic argument.

But it's those Brexiteer MPs who profess to want a deal, but won't vote for this one I don't get. They're either idiots, if they think they can get something better, or lying. Possibly both.
 
Looking more like Fyre Festival with each passing day

The only difference being the organizers won’t end up in jail
 
NinjaFletch said:
I agree, but that's what I don't understand. The opposition of Remainers makes sense; we have a better deal so why do we want a worse one? In many respects there's a bit of perverse logic to No Deal, too, as long as you're happy to rip up the GFA. At least, those Brexiteers are happy to admit that their hatred of foreigners trumps any kind of actual economic argument.

But it's those Brexiteer MPs who profess to want a deal, but won't vote for this one I don't get. They're either idiots, if they think they can get something better, or lying. Possibly both.
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But taking parliament faction by faction.
ERG don't want a deal.
Labour whether they're remain or leavers have been told to vote against it.
DUP - well it's the DUP
SNP/Lib/Tory Remainers - against because they want to Remain
Tory's who will vote for the deal.

That covers most of them.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Because there is no magic solution to release the UK from the backstop and the UK will be tied in because of the GFA - Remainers of course want to stay but this deal is the next best thing after a BINO because you won't totally leave the EU but neither Remainers or Brexiters like the deal.
But whatever the final outcome is, there'll be many unhappy people, probably everyone.
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While I respect your views, you are aware I take it that what the clarification does is to put emphasis on the EU as well as the UK to resolve the Irish Border issue including the framework as to how this should be done. And the consequences of lack of progress gives the UK the criterion to challenge and take to an Arbitration Panel.
IMHO, the risk of the UK being tied to the EU has reduced significantly. And that is significant.
 
Brownie85 said:
And what happens if leave wins again? Where do we go from there? Do we keep on going until the MP's get a result they're happy with?
A second referendum would cause more of a divide than the first, quite probably an irreversible divide. It's a huge mess at the moment in which absolutely no one can agree on how to move forward. An "accidental" no deal looks pretty likely in all fairness.
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Fully agree and if you look back at my previous posts you will see that I am not in favour of a second referendum. I was simply stating the agreed process.
 
Buster15 said:
While I respect your views, you are aware I take it that what the clarification does is to put emphasis on the EU as well as the UK to resolve the Irish Border issue including the framework as to how this should be done. And the consequences of lack of progress gives the UK the criterion to challenge and take to an Arbitration Panel.
IMHO, the risk of the UK being tied to the EU has reduced significantly. And that is significant.
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Yes but at this moment in time there is no solution to the Irish border issue, and all sides can try to find one, but as yet nobody knows what that is.
But at the end of the day if there is no solution that exists a hard border will go up if the UK insist on leaving the backstop.
The problem doesn't just go away and something that could be impossible to resolve may endure for eternity.
 
ERG and DUP seem to be avoiding explicitly saying they'll vote against it just that they cannot support it. How close could it be if they abstain?
 
Honest John said:
Cox is doing his utmost to sell this at the moment.
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He is indeed and I have to say that he is talking far more sense than any of the MPs.
I agree with him in that it is all about risk. The likelihood of the risk happening and then the consequence of that occurrence.
The important thing is that the risk of the UK being tied to the
Paul the Wolf said:
Yes but at this moment in time there is no solution to the Irish border issue, and all sides can try to find one, but as yet nobody knows what that is.
But at the end of the day if there is no solution that exists a hard border will go up if the UK insist on leaving the backstop.
The problem doesn't just go away and something that could be impossible to resolve may endure for eternity.
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The likelihood of no solution to the Irish Backstop has been significantly reduced because the latest agreement places the ownership of the solution fairly and squarely on the EU as well as the UK.
We are told that the EU doesn't want the Backstop as don't the UK nor Ireland. That being the case a solution seems to me to be likely.
 
saivet said:
What would be the point in abstaining?
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JRM just asked a question of the AG which was robustly answered. Perhaps it is just me but it seemed to me that JRM was just going through the motions of asking a question.
 
Buster15 said:
He is indeed and I have to say that he is talking far more sense than any of the MPs.
I agree with him in that it is all about risk. The likelihood of the risk happening and then the consequence of that occurrence.
The important thing is that the risk of the UK being tied to the


The likelihood of no solution to the Irish Backstop has been significantly reduced because the latest agreement places the ownership of the solution fairly and squarely on the EU as well as the UK.
We are told that the EU doesn't want the Backstop as don't the UK nor Ireland. That being the case a solution seems to me to be likely.
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I'm starting to get the feeling that the DUP and ERG will reject anything put in front of them in order to get a no deal scenario.
Yes the WA isn't ideal, but nothing is going to be ideal when it comes to the irish border. They know the backstop isn't going anywhere, and the likelihood of being trapped in it is low, but that's not good enough. At the end of the day, no matter what agreement is put in front of MP's, there is always going to be an element of risk to it, regardless.
 
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