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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
spiriticon said:
Parliament voted to trigger Article 50, not just May herself. And besides, you need to trigger it before the EU will even start negotiate. You won't get an idea of what deal you may or may not get if you don't even start it.

What was needed in the 2 years after A50 was triggered is a bit more fecking structure and REAL compromise, not just politicians voting for their ideal scenario and voting down everything else.
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You know what, I'm going to retract what I just said (apart from the shitshow bit). I was wrong. Cameron said at the time of the referendum that he'd invoke Article 50 immediately in the event of a leave victory.

I still maintain that going into negotiations without having the foggiest idea of what will be acceptable for your own side is a spectacular mistake.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
When will parliament realise that the real negotiations start after the UK leaves and that the WA is just to get out.
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Never, that's the point, it will never be (openly) admitted by Parliament although it still has to be faced, if they want to avoid a no deal Brexit. If they had listened to what the EU told them from the off and then realised earlier the implications of what was being said then a no deal Brexit would have had to have been enacted from the get go.

It was all bluster from May from the word go and the EU knew it, the fact we are still being strung along proves it. All that the UK parliament can now do is to get/force May to revoke A50, complete the abject surrender take the humiliation and shit show the victors will throw at us and then put themselves to the sword by demanding a GE and beg for mercy from the electorate.

I can see that happening can't you??
 
Maticmaker said:
Never, that's the point, it will never be (openly) admitted by Parliament although it still has to be faced, if they want to avoid a no deal Brexit. If they had listened to what the EU told them from the off and then realised earlier the implications of what was being said then a no deal Brexit would have had to have been enacted from the get go.

It was all bluster from May from the word go and the EU knew it, the fact we are still being strung along proves it. All that the UK parliament can now do is to get/force May to revoke A50, complete the abject surrender take the humiliation and shit show the victors will throw at us and then put themselves to the sword by demanding a GE and beg for mercy from the electorate.

I can see that happening can't you??
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The initial withdrawal discussions should have taken six months and moved onto the future relationship discussions. There was only ever going to be one withdrawal agreement and yet even now they are still going on about renegotiating the backstop.

No, at this moment I still think No Deal is inevitable , whether in May, June or November, I'll plump for June.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
No, at this moment I still think No Deal is inevitable , whether in May, June or November, I'll plump for June.
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We are into the 'never never land' scenario or Groundhog day writ large, the only way out is to revoke A50 otherwise we keep going around the loop, goodness knows what business/industry will make of it?
 
GloryHunter07 said:
I completely disagree, cant see no deal unless there is a big shift in Parliamentary arithmetic.
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I can't a see a single decision taken unless there is a big shift in parliamentary arithmetic. Ironically what the UK is currently doing is what they "feared" the EU would do with the backstop.
 
Think the only way no deal happens is if it goes back to the UK electorate and they vote for it. It clearly terrifies the UK government and the EU.

JPRouve said:
I can't a see a single decision taken unless there is a big shift in parliamentary arithmetic. Ironically what the UK is currently doing is what they "feared" the EU would do with the backstop.
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Maybe this is the real 'backstop' - backstuck.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Because the EU have given the UK another chance to sort out an agreement but that won't go on forever.
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Another couple of years would be nice, keeps the Tory away from domestic policy and allows for the voter base to become more remain.

Breixteers are terrified of a long delay as they know day by day the remain position gets stronger.
 
Smores said:
Another couple of years would be nice, keeps the Tory away from domestic policy and allows for the voter base to become more remain.

Breixteers are terrified of a long delay as they know day by day the remain position gets stronger.
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I really see at as they hope May and Corbyn will finally agree on something, or yes they cancel it altogether. But if in say 5 or 6 weeks time they both keep to the same line, I think they may give up hope.
 
If they revoke article 50, surely they don't just swan in with the house coat and slippers on as if nothing happened.
They've lost all credibility whichever way this ends up.
 
Ian Reus said:
If they revoke article 50, surely they don't just swan in with the house coat and slippers on as if nothing happened.
They've lost all credibility whichever way this ends up.
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In that scenario the healing would only start once a non-Conservative, EU-friendly Prime Minister and government are elected. But yes, the EU will probably have one eye on the UK at all times so to speak. The damage is already being done, businesses/institutions are leaving/have left and our influence in the EU is declining. I'm sure the federalists would also use it as a stick to beat us with every time we object to further integrating proposals.

It's still a much preferable situation to leaving mind you.
 
JPRouve said:
I can't a see a single decision taken unless there is a big shift in parliamentary arithmetic. Ironically what the UK is currently doing is what they "feared" the EU would do with the backstop.
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I can see parliament agreeing on Single market 2.0 or some such, that was the direction of travel when they were doing indicative votes.
 
GloryHunter07 said:
I can see parliament agreeing on Single market 2.0 or some such, that was the direction of travel when they were doing indicative votes.
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I struggle to see how it fixes the current problems. It's based on easily joining EFTA and easily creating a custom union with the EU.
 
JPRouve said:
I can't a see a single decision taken unless there is a big shift in parliamentary arithmetic. Ironically what the UK is currently doing is what they "feared" the EU would do with the backstop.
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From all reports it very much sounds to me like both parties will be setting the groundwork for the indicative votes to make sure they pass. I think it'll be transferable votes
 
Smores said:
Another couple of years would be nice, keeps the Tory away from domestic policy and allows for the voter base to become more remain.

Breixteers are terrified of a long delay as they know day by day the remain position gets stronger.
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You'd have to get rid of Macron first. The extension barely made it to October. He wants a no deal and he is ready.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
I really see at as they hope May and Corbyn will finally agree on something, or yes they cancel it altogether.
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Spot on Paul, its the only way out.
After a few more weeks of Corbyn saying 'she is a stubborn bitch (or words to that effect) and May saying "its my deal or no Brexit", then they will announce together, they cannot agree, except to cancel Brexit by revoking A50!

Corbyn's prize for his complying is that May will step down and then either force a GE, or oblige Corbyn with a no confidence vote in which the government will deign to abstain and what remains of the tory party goes ape-shit! This may happen in June but more likely October, nice irony don't you think?
 
GloryHunter07 said:
Which problems (there are so many)?
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In order to fix the irish border problem you need a free trade and a custom agreement. Joining EFTA while staying members of the EEA should fix the free trade agreement issue but it can only be done without altering your current FTA, the new custom union will require the UK to leave the EU first because they can't be on both sides of the table which is the reason behind the withdrawal agreement and the backstop. So the main reason behind the rejection of the WA still exists and the question of the Schengen agreement should pop up because all EFTA members signed an agreement on that topic.

The way I see it, CM 2.0 has the same issues than the WA agreement and if MPs are willing to compromise on these issues then they can't explain why they rejected the WA.
 
JPRouve said:
In order to fix the irish border problem you need a free trade and a custom agreement. Joining EFTA while staying members of the EEA should fix the free trade agreement issue but it can only be done without altering your current FTA, the new custom union will require the UK to leave the EU first because they can't be on both sides of the table which is the reason behind the withdrawal agreement and the backstop. So the main reason behind the rejection of the WA still exists and the question of the Schengen agreement should pop up because all EFTA members signed an agreement on that topic.

The way I see it, CM 2.0 has the same issues than the WA agreement and if MPs are willing to compromise on these issues then they can't explain why they rejected the WA.
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I think last night’s optics - May locked outside while Macron decided the country’s fate - kills any serious chance of getting support for Norway plus/Common Market 2.0.
 
JPRouve said:
In order to fix the irish border problem you need a free trade and a custom agreement. Joining EFTA while staying members of the EEA should fix the free trade agreement issue but it can only be done without altering your current FTA, the new custom union will require the UK to leave the EU first because they can't be on both sides of the table which is the reason behind the withdrawal agreement and the backstop. So the main reason behind the rejection of the WA still exists and the question of the Schengen agreement should pop up because all EFTA members signed an agreement on that topic.

The way I see it, CM 2.0 has the same issues than the WA agreement and if MPs are willing to compromise on these issues then they can't explain why they rejected the WA.
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My laymans interpretation is that most of the opposition to the WA was Party political.
 
Another extension? Whatever happened to the "Brexit means Brexit" stance? Surely there are going to be a whole lot of people who will be unhappy with this.
 
Ramshock said:
Speak for yourself, I and everyone over here who I know voted for remain were considering the border as part of the vote. Even some leave voters admitted it preyed on their minds before voting leave.
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More power to you. Personally, I'll admit that I didn't give it much consideration in the vote compared with other factors and nor did others that I know.

That said, had I been planning/considering to vote for Leave then I suppose I would have taken more time to research that sort of thing. Since I was voting for the status quo I suppose I didn't really need to worry about it causing significant changes.
 
Sigma said:
The European elections may become a defacto second referendum.
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Somehow the two major parties will have to come up with an actual European Election Manifesto. I presume the Tories will be written by central office so 'Leave with the Deal', although I could very easily be wrong, and Labour will be 'Waffle, waffle, don't mention Leave or Remain, especially Remain as Jeremy wouldn't like it'. I'm fairly sure I'll be voting Liberal.
 
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