It's madness. The UK exports more to Ireland than the whole of South America, and we're about to just abruptly stop that?
Brexited | the worst threads live the longest
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
At a guess, would think he still wants to win the leadership but knows he won't if he did. Either that or he's as full of it as the rest of em
It's not like he's going to get many Leave votes - his path is almost surely through the remain wing of the Tory party!
I guess. Not many of them about though!
Not just that but a lot of Irish imports and exports are funneled through the UK too which you make money off. Pretty sure we have already started to increase numbers at our shipping ports as a result which is losing you money.
All but inevitable now. It's not even clear how it could be avoided, given that the Tories are about to elect a Brexiteer as leader.
Meanwhile in Tory Britain:
If the newly elected PM tries forcing no deal through then I'd anticipate a vote of no confidence to pass.
Don't try and make logic of it.
A vast swathe of the country don't care about logic but they think their feelings about 'control' and 'Britishness' are facts.
They expect the EU incl Ireland to cave in like a tent .. after all the UK contributes much more than they get from the EU.
He/She wouldn't have to force anything through though, all they have to do is not push any solution through and they'll get no deal by default.
Thank you for your usual reasoned summary.
Your point about the British public being lied to such that it is increasingly difficult to comprehend reality is absolutely right.
Like many nations, most people want to be lead by a strong leader. That is why Boris and Farage appear to have a strong following.
That of course couldn’t be further from the truth.
Neither have the intellectual capacity to resolve this awful mess. Especially because both are partly responsible for where we are in.
technically SNP I think (35 vs 11)LibDems?
I was thinking SNP as I was typing, tbh, but possibly LibDems get more individual voters?
Yes the UK desperately need a strong leader and preferably one that doesn't lie through his teeth. Boris will say something completely different tomorrow to what he says today, Farage only knows how to break things.
Unfortunately there's no-one who springs to mind as a suitable candidate. The Tory 10 are either dishonest or extremely dim or both, Corbyn is a limp lettuce and Farage would be even more catastrophic than all of them.
There seems no way out of the mess they have all caused.
I don't see Tories passing a vote of no confidence against their newly elected leader, or voting to trigger a general election while Brexit is still unresolved (Turkeys voting for Christmas).
I think we might get a GE before 2022, but it will be after we have crashed out of the EU in October.
You never know, since Boris changes his mind every 5 minutes anyway, he might change it about Brexit, when he realises the shit show that will ensue with no deal.
Yeah but once it becomes clear that that's what is going to happen then there is the opportunity to motion for a vote of no confidence.
I don't know why I retain any faith in parliament but I do remain of the belief that there would be a slim majority ready and willing to block no deal. The Cooper-Letwin bill passed with five votes in the end. Hard to call how opinions have changed in the meantime but you'd like to think that once No Deal was actually an impending reality rather than a 'bargaining tool' which some MPs bizarrely view it as then we'd see a similar outcome in September/October.
You never know, since Boris changes his mind every 5 minutes anyway, he might change it about Brexit, when he realises the shit show that will ensue with no deal.
What's the betting that failing to impress the EU, Boris as PM agrees to a second referendum (avoiding for the Tories a disastrous GE), and a promise to implement the outcome whatever. The choice will be binary once more, Leave(No deal) or Remain.
Boris will then have the 'boot on the other foot' as far as Farage and Brexit is concerned, he will plead for all Brexiteers to back him in such a referendum and not split the Leave vote. Labour will be hog-tied, do they call a vote of no confidence, which is hardly likely when as we are told the majority of Labour members want a second referendum, or do they try to form (and of course lead) a 'Grand' Remain coalition with Lib-dems and possibly Greens and Welsh and Scots Nationalists, and more importantly will the new leader of the Lib-Dems welcome yet another 'Grand Coalition' where they are the smaller party?
"Thunderbirds are go...anything can happen in the next six months"
Cause we live in a 'democracy'
You never know, since Boris changes his mind every 5 minutes anyway, he might change it about Brexit, when he realises the shit show that will ensue with no deal.
Politicans don't have a mind to change. They take 'positions'.
That's exactly why the decision is reversible.
But that's not how it works, I run a small services business that does business in Ireland. Will I continue no matter what the outcome of trade negotiations? Of course. Will my clients keep paying me? Of course.
These trade negotiations matter most to goods, yet services are 82% of the UK economy. Trade won't go to 0.
True... But if the value of said trade in services goes down by 5% due to tariffs for example then given how weighted the UK economy is towards services then most probably that's too big a hit for other sectors to make up and we are in recession... The pound tanks... Import costs and inflation goes through the roof and well it's a sub-optimal scenario
Depending on the brexit deal I will set up a company in South of Ireland to deal with my business there... It's an extra set of accounts but more than offset by tarrif charges (if there are any)... But all the tax on my Irish revenue will then go to Ireland not UK exchequer.
For sure trade (in services or goods) won't go to zero but equally id be surprised if there was zero impact (without a deal)
Don't worry, we don't tend to tax corporations here properly
But yeah, I imagine that will be the case for a lot of companies, pretty sure it's already happened, and our already fake GDP will get even more bloated as a result despite us probably entering recession as a result of no deal.
Tbf the taxation rates was certainly in the mix when gaming things throughDon't worry, we don't tend to tax corporations here properly
But yeah, I imagine that will be the case for a lot of companies, pretty sure it's already happened, and our already fake GDP will get even more bloated as a result despite us probably entering recession as a result of no deal.
Yes in 40 or so years!
UK Democracy in action;
Referendums on European Economic Community/European Union
1975 in and voted to remain in
2016 in but voted out
2056 out … but...?
I don't need to import anything and I don't see why there would be tariffs of 5%? None of my clients in the US, Hong Kong, LatAM or Africa charge that. Any drop in the value of the pound would be lovely!
I import and export so for me it would be a double edged sword
as net importer overall though its hard to argue on the short term that overall the effect wold probably be negative to the general populus
Just get rid of the backstop our Boris says. Easy in it.
The mythical 'alternative arrangements' will fix it.
Can't believe this charlatan will be PM.
Our charlatan is worse than yours.
This might sounds strange, but at least your charlatan is honest in that he has picked a side and is true to that side. Our charlatan flipflops so much not sure even people on his side believe he's their guy.
And so it should be.
Yes, an opportunity for Tories to vote themselves out of government along with those hard Brexit Labour MPs voting to stop the thing they desperately want.
It’s a slim chance.
A good way off the deadline yet. Don't forget May's deal is still on the table, and if a hard brexit is to be avoided parliament will have to vote for something, and I still think that at the last minute the existing negotiated deal might be it. Depends on Corbyn really, if he does nothing then a hard brexit it is, although there could be a Labour rebellion, or even better he allows a free vote and the deals through.
The vote only happens though if the PM allows it to happen. Does Boris allow a whipped vote on May’s deal after all the time he spent attacking it and promoting no deal as a viable option? Maybe, if he truly understand that no deal would be disasterous, but it would surely make him look very weak and make those who opposed May look like giant hypocrites and fools.
It would yes. Hopefully both leaders will drop the whips and allow a free vote, it might be in their own interests to do so. Or indicative votes could raise their head again?