I'm losing track a bit, but what will a further three month extension really achieve? If new legislation blocks no deal do we end up with May's?
The national unity government seems unlikely so is there any route to repeal or second referendum?
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The national unity government seems unlikely so is there any route to repeal or second referendum?
That's what I'm wondering. Does it default to May's deal?
They're saying it gives time to negotiate a new deal, but we already know the EU won't negotiate the backstop and won't open the WA again, except for perhaps some minor concessions, so I'm not too sure.
At this point for me it just needs to be out back to the public. Mays deal or Remain.
Thanks. Though Megatrotsk was a good attempt at toppling the champion.
Another extension?
This is like Ashley Young's contract, something that nobody wants that will never end.
This is like Ashley Young's contract, something that nobody wants that will never end.
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- Farage would back Johnson if he made no-deal promise
Today Programme
BBC Radio 4
Getty ImagesCopyright: Getty Images
Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage says his party members would not stand against Conservative candidates in an election if Boris Johnson promised to leave the EU without a deal.
“If Boris Johnson says look, we're leaving, we're going to have a clean break, we will after that negotiate a trade agreement and no more... Of course, if Boris Johnson said that we the Brexit Party would put country before party," he said.
"We'd say to Mr Johnson right, we want to help you in any way we can - but I'm afraid that's not what the prime minister wants to do."
Mr Farage added: "If Boris Johnson has got the courage to do the right thing, I will be his best friend and back him all the way."
Let the extension bill pass
Say this means the remoaner parliament has given the EU a reason not to negotiate
Switch to no deal / no negotiations jump into be with farrage and call a general election?
Most of Farage's supporters are just disgruntled conservatives anyway. They are not going to vote against their own in a major election.
If and when such a Bill appears for Royal Assent and Boris is still in place as PM, that is exactly what he will do and HM will be obliged to heed her PM, if she doesn't then the real fun starts!
Sounds about right.
Look at the support for Boris generally, for proroguing in particular, the sentiments among Tory voters about rebel MPs, the questions on delays, Farage, and courts.
The upshot is that Britain is electorally a Leave country. The gap in polling is not yet what it was when May called her election. Whether anyone here wants to admit it or not, Labour's campaign in the 2017 GE was a historic gain, slashing a 15-20% points deficit to 2% at the day of polling. Either Corbyn pulls another rabbit out of the hat, which is unlikely when the election is effectively a referendum on Brexit, or Boris gets his mandate. The numbers, at least, suggest that what he is doing has significant popular support.
Previous campaign:
I've yet to see or hear an explanation from a single Tory MP rolled out onto the news as to why no deal is required as a negotiating tactic to agree alternative arrangements with the EU.
Nowhere near so simple.
I think cummings probaby skipped the part about giving your enemies a golden bridge to retreat over
Best PM
Boris 45%
Swinson 19%
Dont Know 19%
Corbyn 17%
Kin ell if Labour had a decent leader there is no way Boris would go for an election... just look at the character match ups... corbyn is a toxic liability
Statesman : Boris +35
Intelligent : Boris +32
Strong : Boris +65
Caring : Corbyn +6
Common touch : Boris +5
Charismatic : Boris +76
Labours only hope is that the conservatives run as bad a campaign as they did last time (pretty unlikely I think)
That's just incredible.
You think so? For HM not to accede to the request of her current PM would indeed be 'revolutionary' and hence complicated.
For Boris not to have the whip hand a VNC has to be put and he has to lose, or he has to declare a GE that is accepted by the House (under the Fixed term Act). HM could, on advice in lieu of a GE either enact or defer any decision on Royal assent, but since she has already agreed to the proroguing of Parliament ostensibly to allow for a new Government programme to be formed, this would render the Monarchy's normal position of being neutral, open to scrutiny.
It would end up at the Supreme Court to rule if the Prime Minister was acting unconstitutionally in his advice to the monarch.
Just reading that sentence back makes me realise how completely bonkers our political system is.
God it's depressing isn't it. No-one seems to give a shit that he's a morally bankrupt, power hungry compulsive liar...
Absolutely mental and terrifying how easily people can be hoodwinked by the press and a good marketing team. I keep having to say this to people week after week. These Eton bred career politicians could not give a flying toss about any of us. It never seems to sink in. But hey, Ed Miliband can't eat a bacon sandwich and Jeremy Corbyn is a scruffy commie.
Corbyn is meek and uninteresting. He's a charisma vacuum. He leaves very little impression on the average voter that only engages with politics on a surface level.
What this whole escapade makes me realise is that democracy is a truly terrible way to run a country. It is definitely the best system we have, but it’s still awful.
Let’s just ask a load of uniformed idiots what we should do with the country, what could possibly go wrong?
Let’s just ask a load of uniformed idiots what we should do with the country, what could possibly go wrong?
Look at the support for Boris generally, for proroguing in particular, the sentiments among Tory voters about rebel MPs, the questions on delays, Farage, and courts.
The upshot is that Britain is electorally a Leave country. The gap in polling is not yet what it was when May called her election. Whether anyone here wants to admit it or not, Labour's campaign in the 2017 GE was a historic gain, slashing a 15-20% points deficit to 2% at the day of polling. Either Corbyn pulls another rabbit out of the hat, which is unlikely when the election is effectively a referendum on Brexit, or Boris gets his mandate. The numbers, at least, suggest that what he is doing has significant popular support.
Previous campaign:
While I also believe Corbyn to be somewhat useless, it's amazing how the Tory PR machine have managed to convince large swathes of the nation's voters that he's unelectable and dangerous. Especially as their offer is the manipulative, lying, bullying and actually dangerous Johnson-Cummings duo. I would much rather the former than the latter. But with his brand so toxic, I feel very uneasy about a GE where Corbyn represents the best chance of averting no deal.
Corb-limey! Red Jezza ignores rampant Naziism in Labour Party!
true... just how incompetent does somebody have to be for Boris to be the popular option
... crazyI posted on this the other day:
"They need to pass legislation to prevent no deal, followed by a Vote of no confidence. The most dangerous part if they manage to get a bill passed is royal assent.
Without the VoNC we'll be back to 1708, where he can ask the queen to refuse royal assent to the bill, and constitutionally she will be pretty much bound to refuse it. (The overwhelming view being that she must act on the advice of the executive). However, with a VoNC they will no longer be a 'responsible government.'
Put simply, nobody actually knows whether legislative power is the gift of the executive or of parliament. And nobody knows whether royal assent is part of the normal package of prerogative powers [which must be acted upon when the government advises it] or whether that would simply be replacing the monarchs veto power with the prime ministers.
The other reason they need a VoNC to pass is due to the discussion above; without it, the government can simply threaten the EU to upset the apple cart if they don't deny the extension. The only way around this issue would be legislation that reads something like "The Prime Minister must negotiate an extension of 6 months to article 50. If he fails to do so, article 50 is hereby revoked by act of parliament.""
I did poke around a little further after this and....
New stuff: Even without the VoNC there is significant doubt whether the queen will listen. There are 2 opposing precedents, one from 1954 and one from 1976 iirc. The first in 1954 was the clerk of the house of commons, who stated that when giving royal assent, the queen does not depart from the convention of her other royal pregogatives (ie. she listens to the advice of the PM). The second in 1976 was in response to a letter to the queen from a member of the public, and said that "upon further research, we discovered that ministerial advice is not in fact tendered before royal assent is granted." and that its "established constitutional convention that Royal Assent is not withheld from Bills which have been passed by both Houses of Parliament" oyal Assent is not withheld from Bills which have been passed by both Houses of Parliament https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1007341
I don't think she'd refuse it, but I do think the government would appeal.
Lazy... there are far better photosCorb-limey! Red Jezza ignores rampant Naziism in Labour Party!
It's an indictment of democracy that charisma and appearances matter more than substance. Arguably people who engage with politics only on a surface level would be doing a greater service to their democracies by not voting.
Just goes to show how appalling Corbyn is though.
That's why we supposedly have a representative democracy; referendums are almost always a fecking terrible idea in them. Of course, Cameron knew better...
Incredibly unsurprising?
It's nothing new, Boris Johnson's ability to appeal to ordinary people is practically his raison d'etre and if you only take a cursory glance at politics, you'll never be exposed to anything that will cause you to feel differently about him. Having said that, I do think the gloss has worn off somewhat and more are inclined to see through him.
Be interesting to see how Johnson holds up during the full glare of an election. I also wonder whether the Conservative message of 'Corbyn is a danger' will cut through in the same way that it once might have. It worked a treat for Cameron in 2015... because well, Miliband. But 2017 should serve as a warning to the Conservatives.
That's interesting because some of the longest running anti EU sentiment comes from the hard left.
And I am quite certain that the majority race throughout the EU is Caucasian, which happens to be the majority race in the United Kingdom.
So it's probably not a case of rich people and racists voting leave. Some did, but then some also voted to remain.
I don't think politicians are devoid of substance. They are no instagram models. The substance is the policies that they espouse and the politics they represent. And it's substantial because it leads to decision making and legislation that affects the citizenry and sometimes (depending on country and circumstance) the whole world. There's nothing insubstantial in that.
That's wilfully disingenuous.
Vast majority of people don't want to get deeply involved in politics because its fairly complex (to the average Joe), its very dry and its bloody depressing.
Democracy is just the least bad system about.
He is right. There's many European countries, including this one, where the far left see the EU as some sort of imperialistic vehicle for the elites. The far right and far left have been united in their dislike of the EU for different reasons and in some countries (Italy, Greece) they have even formed coalition governments under that very banner.
In this day and age it probably is, this is mainly because we do not have a written constitution. Everything is set by precedent, if there is no precedent then effectively someone makes it up! Also one of the things that at first glance may not be obvious, but is, is that we are all subjects of the Crown, we refer to ourselves as citizens of the UK, but what does that mean, if there is no written constitution that guarantees our future freedoms and such are based only on what happened in the past? (remember, so called Human Rights Acts can be reversed)
Will any future Government ever again put forward a binary choice in a referendum, without stating what size of outcome result will be considered as an acceptable majority? Come to think of it will any future Government ever offer a referendum again... unless a written Constitution guarantees it?
Brexit is a massive watershed for everyone in the UK, its political and social reverberations will be felt long after any economic disturbance has died away. Whether there will still be a UK, whether the 'English' will get their own parliament, whether Brexit will eventually lead to at least a referendum on a united Ireland, and to Scottish Independence, or even the first Marxist PM? Everything to play for and an exciting time to be alive really... if you want to look at it that way?