Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

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T00lsh3d said:
Well it’s been widely reported that all effort has gone into no deal planning rather than negotiating a deal, so I’d expect the ‘deal’ version to be literally on the back of a fag packet judging by this
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Quite. I'm not entertaining the idea that this is a document anyone in government takes seriously. I'm sure their actual advice is much more comprehensive, much more specific and much more alarming.
 
WensleyMU said:
Could toit be do with the military or police and be deemed a national security issue?
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I could only guess. Certainly imaginable that publishing it could make a situation worse that they are trying to plan mitigation for.


Therefore it would have been really great to have this come from a government one can trust...
 
They released this nonsense to distract from this, I guess.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49670123

The government is refusing to publish details of communications between No 10 aides about Parliament's suspension, despite MPs voting for their release.

Cabinet minister Michael Gove said the MPs' request was "unprecedented, inappropriate and disproportionate".

He said the nine advisers concerned, including Boris Johnson's controversial aide Dominic Cummings, would have "no right to reply".

To go ahead would "offend against basic principles of fairness", he said.
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Abizzz said:
Point 15 really has gotta be bad considering some of the stuff they've left in there.
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15. Materials used in the manufacture of Union Jack flags may be in short supply. Also, a severe shortage of Werthers originals is anticipated
 
Pogue Mahone said:
The thing about free market capitalism in the context of food production is that it’s caused a race to the bottom. Animals raised in horrendous conditions and biodiversity wiped out all around the world in an effort to produce the cheapest possible product.

If you care about that at all then the whole “let the public decide” argument makes no sense at all. Chlorinated chicken has become symbolic of all the shitty behaviour you endorse in a completely unregulated market. The issue isn’t just about how much chlorine you can safely consume, obviously.
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Yes, the chlorine in this case is used as a replacement for good standards of hygiene and welfare throughout the chain.
 
WensleyMU said:
It looks grim, but then it is meant to. It's a worst case scenario. These things should exist for just about every eventuality in some form or another.

Seems very short though, and hardly official. Is it just a summary or is that the extent of it?

I know I will get jumped on but I am NOT suggesting this is acceptable.
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No, it's not.
 
T00lsh3d said:
15. Materials used in the manufacture of Union Jack flags may be in short supply. Also, a severe shortage of Werthers originals is anticipated
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I don't know, they blacked out the 15. too, this really has to be serious. My bet is on a shortage of money laundering detergent.
 
According to Rosamund Urwin the redacted part read:
"15. Facing EU tariffs makes petrol exports to the EU uncompetitive. Industry had plans to mitigate the impact on refinery margins and profitability but UK Government policy to set petrol import tariffs at 0% inadvertently undermines these plans."
"This leads to significant financial losses and announcement of two refinery closures (and transition to import terminals) and direct job losses (about 2000).
Resulting strike action at refineries would lead to disruptions to fuel availability for 1-2 weeks in the regions directly supplied by the refineries."
She also confirms the change in title from "base" to "reasonable worst case" scenario.
 
rotherham_red said:
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Tbf I think pretty much any trader would be identifying short positions
Equally some will be identifying long positions based on a hard brexit as well (basically companies with good underlyings that have a large % of earnings in foreign currency... Particularly dollars)
And I think there will be a lot more than 8 billion in play... That's nothing in the grand scheme of hedge funds
 
If you click on that tweet of mine above it also has a thread on para 15.

Basically says the government plan to set 0% tarrifs undermines efforts by refineries to mitigate and will cause 2000 job losses and strike action which could see fuel shortages for 1-2 weeks
 
Fingeredmouse said:
According to Rosamund Urwin the redacted part read:
"15. Facing EU tariffs makes petrol exports to the EU uncompetitive. Industry had plans to mitigate the impact on refinery margins and profitability but UK Government policy to set petrol import tariffs at 0% inadvertently undermines these plans."
"This leads to significant financial losses and announcement of two refinery closures (and transition to import terminals) and direct job losses (about 2000).
Resulting strike action at refineries would lead to disruptions to fuel availability for 1-2 weeks in the regions directly supplied by the refineries."
She also confirms the change in title from "base" to "reasonable worst case" scenario.
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The refineries can go feck themselves. They are playing both sides and will be fine.
 
Abizzz said:
Point 15 really has gotta be bad considering some of the stuff they've left in there.

Also, this is officially saying that any healthcare for UK residents in the EU will not be covered anymore. Isn't that pretty big news? (Yea we knew, but it being a official government paper...)
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The EHIC won't be valid anymore, so if you go to the EU as a Brit on holiday you'll need travel insurance every time or be prepared to pay if something happens to you. If you plan on staying/living in an EU state, you'll need to have resident status in place, which requires that you have adequate private health insurance or pay into the national healthcare system of that country. oates and I are paying about 2,700 euros each year (as a couple) to have full access to the Italian health service. It's much cheaper if you have a low income.

The main problem is that people of state pension age in the UK have up until now been able to access full free healthcare in EU states whilst not taking on the costs and bureaucracy of becoming resident there.
 
sun_tzu said:
What is the basis for yellow hammer thought.. is it reasonable worst case scenario planning because if so then that is the base level of planning
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Potentially, the wording change suggests to me it's so they can declare it as worst case whilst ignoring the reasonable.
 
sun_tzu said:
Tbf I think pretty much any trader would be identifying short positions
Equally some will be identifying long positions based on a hard brexit as well (basically companies with good underlyings that have a large % of earnings in foreign currency... Particularly dollars)
And I think there will be a lot more than 8 billion in play... That's nothing in the grand scheme of hedge funds
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There's no easier way to make money in the world when you've got a politician in your pocket.
 
Jippy said:
Surely they'd have best, good, bad, worst and base? Or variations thereof.
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I might be wrong but I thought yellowhammer was supposed to be contingency planning and if I were contingency planning I'd probably base it on a reasonable worst case scenario?
I would have thought though buried in all the documents somewhere would be the brief and basis for yellowhammer (ie what it's base was)... But I certainly can't be arsed to trawl and find it but it might be out there somewhere
 
Penna said:
The EHIC won't be valid anymore, so if you go to the EU as a Brit on holiday you'll need travel insurance every time or be prepared to pay if something happens to you. If you plan on staying/living in an EU state, you'll need to have resident status in place, which requires that you have adequate private health insurance or pay into the national healthcare system of that country. oates and I are paying about 2,700 euros each year (as a couple) to have full access to the Italian health service. It's much cheaper if you have a low income.

The main problem is that people of state pension age in the UK have up until now been able to access full free healthcare in EU states whilst not taking on the costs and bureaucracy of becoming resident there.
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Yes, and informed and well organized expatriates like yourself knew/feared this was coming and have wisely taken precautions, but isn't this the first time the British government is officially saying this is what is going to happen?
 
sun_tzu said:
I might be wrong but I thought yellowhammer was supposed to be contingency planning and if I were contingency planning I'd probably base it on a reasonable worst case scenario?
I would have thought though buried in all the documents somewhere would be the brief and basis for yellowhammer (ie what it's base was)... But I certainly can't be arsed to trawl and find it but it might be out there somewhere
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I thought this too, but after reading those 5 pages am I mistaken in saying it's just a summation of the problems rather than a plan to tackle them?
 
unchanged_lineup said:
Tagline please, mods. "Needs another cat pic".
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Nothing wrong with cat pics!

Though let's be fair, Owlos post was funny (I can laugh at myself) but didn't really answer the question I was asking. Granted it is an incredibly complicated situation with no prior basis in law to compare it with.

And the above is a worst case scenario, whether they changed the title or not. No deal is the worst case, therefore the base scenario is the worst case.

So if I am going to get a cool tagline that gets me inundated with cat pics, then at least let it be for good reason.
 
WensleyMU said:
Nothing wrong with cat pics!

Though let's be fair, Owlos post was funny (I can laugh at myself) but didn't really answer the question I was asking. Granted it is an incredibly complicated situation with no prior basis in law to compare it with.

And the above is a worst case scenario, whether they changed the title or not. No deal is the worst case, therefore the base scenario is the worst case.

So if I am going to get a cool tagline that gets me inundated with cat pics, then at least let it be for good reason.
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Tis the way of the caf.
 
sun_tzu said:
I might be wrong but I thought yellowhammer was supposed to be contingency planning and if I were contingency planning I'd probably base it on a reasonable worst case scenario?
I would have thought though buried in all the documents somewhere would be the brief and basis for yellowhammer (ie what it's base was)... But I certainly can't be arsed to trawl and find it but it might be out there somewhere
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You'd surely cover the full spectrum of potential outcomes though?
 
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