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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
Smores said:
The GE sounds like it'll have to be next year now btw.

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Let's say confidence motion on Monday 21st
They can't agree a leader in 14 days (4th November) Then I think 25 days...
So actually end of november / start of December is possible
Probably another couple of weeks before it would need to be next year (keep in mind benn act only asks for extension till end of january... As it stands... I think EU might say end of may to give time for a referendum)
 
sun_tzu said:
Let's say confidence motion on Monday 21st
They can't agree a leader in 14 days (4th November) Then I think 25 days...
So actually end of november / start of December is possible
Probably another couple of weeks before it would need to be next year (keep in mind benn act only asks for extension till end of january... As it stands... I think EU might say end of may to give time for a referendum)
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One more year! One more year!
 
sun_tzu said:
Yet so far they have not... And by blind vote I assume you mean anonymous which of course won't ever be the case... So again we have no majority in parliament for anything at the moment
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Sorry, I meant anonymous.

May deal vs BJ deal vs 2nd Ref vs Revoke

That’s what the voting will be on Super Saturday?

2nd referendum wins by default.
 
sammsky1 said:
So that’s the hardcore no deal mob in agreement. Around 80 BJ hardon fanboys. Bid deal!
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In agreement with something that they rejected 2 years ago. @Smores proposition seems very sensible but it shouldn't stop at BJ.
 
sammsky1 said:
Sorry, I meant anonymous.

May deal vs BJ deal vs 2nd Ref vs Revoke

That’s what the voting will be on Super Saturday?

2nd referendum wins by default.
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In theory it's just a vote on accepting Boris deal (provided that's agreed at the EU summit)

In practical terms I think there will be numerous amendments
Official labour... Demanding labour are allowed to negotiate unicorns?
Official Snp... Second indy ref tagged onto a confirmation referendum?
Lib amendment... Reject and revoke
Probably a reject and try a Norway deal
Probably reject and try WTO option
Probably accept subject to a confirmatory referendum

Would depend on speaker selecting them but I think the second ref is the one that would have most backing
 
sun_tzu said:
In theory it's just a vote on accepting Boris deal (provided that's agreed at the EU summit)

In practical terms I think there will be numerous amendments
Official labour... Demanding labour are allowed to negotiate unicorns?
Official Snp... Second indy ref tagged onto a confirmation referendum?
Lib amendment... Reject and revoke
Probably a reject and try a Norway deal
Probably reject and try WTO option
Probably accept subject to a confirmatory referendum

Would depend on speaker selecting them but I think the second ref is the one that would have most backing
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Yeah. That’s also been my deep suspicion on Labour BrExit. What is different about the deal they would construct and negotiate?
 
sammsky1 said:
Yeah. That’s also been my deep suspicion on Labour BrExit. What is different about the deal they would construct and negotiate?
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They say they want to be in a customs union with the EU... But not THE customs union... Essentially they want to be able to negotiate their own deals and veto any EU deals... Unicorns ... Not achievable so essentially they would probably have to stay in the customs union (and not negotiate their own deals) or end up with a similar deal to Mays with close reglationary alignment
 
sun_tzu said:
They say they want to be in a customs union with the EU... But not THE customs union... Essentially they want to be able to negotiate their own deals and veto any EU deals... Unicorns ... Not achievable so essentially they would probably have to stay in the customs union (and not negotiate their own deals) or end up with a similar deal to Mays with close reglationary alignment
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So they still have the same Irish border issue?
 
sammsky1 said:
So they still have the same Irish border issue?
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If we (all UK) are in the customs union I think not...
A customs union where we negotiate seperatw deals outside the EU and in "a" customs union then. I think probably yes

But frankly the idea that the EU are going to let us have a say in their deals and take advantage of all EU trade deals plus still go off and negotiate our own takes us back to the cherry picking at the start... Pure unicorn stuff
 
sun_tzu said:
If we (all UK) are in the customs union I think not...
A customs union where we negotiate seperatw deals outside the EU and in "a" customs union then. I think probably yes

But frankly the idea that the EU are going to let us have a say in their deals and take advantage of all EU trade deals plus still go off and negotiate our own takes us back to the cherry picking at the start... Pure unicorn stuff
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Jobs first Brexit!
 
sun_tzu said:
In theory it's just a vote on accepting Boris deal (provided that's agreed at the EU summit)

In practical terms I think there will be numerous amendments
Official labour... Demanding labour are allowed to negotiate unicorns?
Official Snp... Second indy ref tagged onto a confirmation referendum?
Lib amendment... Reject and revoke
Probably a reject and try a Norway deal
Probably reject and try WTO option
Probably accept subject to a confirmatory referendum

Would depend on speaker selecting them but I think the second ref is the one that would have most backing
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What if a second referendum doesn't give the desired answer? Do we go for a third, because even if it was a confirmatory vote, MP's would still find a way to overturn it.
If remain wins, where does that leave 17 million people who voted leave the first time round? Where does it leave future referendums? May as well scrap them going forward if you're going to overturn a vote before it's even been implemented.

Whilst a second referendum might be tempting to some, as it could give them the result they desire, it will do nothing more than divide the country even more, which is why i think Labour want to go down the GE route first, promising a second ref, meaning they have the mandate to do one, and people obviously support the idea.
 
sammsky1 said:
So that’s the hardcore no deal mob in agreement. Around 80 hard on BJ fanboys. Bid deal!
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If the deal is hard enough to please the ERG, it will lose support from a lot of moderates who backed May's deal. With the current makeup of Parliament, there is no deal that will please a majority.
 
Brownie85 said:
What if a second referendum doesn't give the desired answer?
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A confirmatory vote clearly makes sense from an impartial point of view. Now that we know(most of) what's involved. Better to be sure before the worst of the damage is done.... There WILL be damage btw. That's not up for debate. Whether that damage is worthwhile is where the debate can be had, but once the full damage is done it cannot be quickly undone.

Do we go for a third, because even if it was a confirmatory vote, MP's would still find a way to overturn it
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I wouldn't be against future referendums on EU membership. I may even vote leave myself should something significant change. But there is absolutely no chance that parliament would put a confirmatory vote back to the people and not go through with it, should they return a leave vote once more.

If remain wins, where does that leave 17 million people who voted leave the first time round?
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They are still free to vote in any future referendums and elections. Just like the rest of us. None of us have a right to be on the 'winning' side. Democracy is a process, wiith many decisions to be made.

Where does it leave future referendums? May as well scrap them going forward if you're going to overturn a vote before it's even been implemented.
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For certain there needs to be tighter regulations around any future referendums. Whether they should in future be binding, I don't know. It is very difficult to assess how much effect any particular act of illegality has had.

Whilst a second referendum might be tempting to some, as it could give them the result they desire, it will do nothing more than divide the country even more, which is why i think Labour want to go down the GE route first, promising a second ref, meaning they have the mandate to do one, and people obviously support the idea.
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I struggle to see how the country can be much more divided.

Corbyn is the only grown-up trying to bring things together in the fairest way possible. It won't work though, the cries of marxist are too loud for most to hear him.
 
Pexbo said:
If the deal is hard enough to please the ERG, it will lose support from a lot of moderates who backed May's deal. With the current makeup of Parliament, there is no deal that will please a majority.
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That was kind of my point
 


God knows how he is going to convince Arlene and the DUP to go with this. Being from the North its probably the best it would get for us (except for remaining) as it would give us the best of both worlds and maybe give the economy here a good boost. That's if the deal goes through.
 
Isn't a border in the Irish Sea a far worse outcome than the backstop as far as Biris and the ERG concerned? So his plan is to negotiate a worse deal.than May's that they all hated and voted against?
 
Wibble said:
Isn't a border in the Irish Sea a far worse outcome than the backstop as far as Biris and the ERG concerned? So his plan is to negotiate a worse deal.than May's that they all hated and voted against?
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It's a bit worse than that. If the reports are correct, it's the initial proposition made by the EU and Ireland that was rejected by the UK and led to the backstop option.
 
He is a genius negotiator. Like the haggling scene from Monty Python's Life of Brian.
 
Wibble said:
He is a genius negotiator. Like the haggling scene from Monty Python's Life of Brian.
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I'm sure that Kuenssberg will report it as a shrewd deal though.
 
Wibble said:
He is a genius negotiator. Like the haggling scene from Monty Python's Life of Brian.
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It's odd but his aim isn't any particular deal it's to secure whatever output will boost his image/electability. I imagine they've done the polling and know this is still considered as getting brexit done and he'll be lauded for it.

Deep down we all know that previous words no longer matter in politics as long as the direction of travel is considered correct, it's batshit but that's where we are.

A) he gets it through and wins the heart of the brexiteers
B) he doesn't, he blames parliament and then gets to campaign on an actual deal promising to implement it
 
horsechoker said:
Yeah something seems off about this.
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I think he just wants a deal....he knows it won't get through parliament and doesn't care. It just needs to be different from May's deal.

He is playing the "drain the swamp" playbook from Trump so is hoping that people will be frustrated by Parliament saying "no" again.

That's why the tories are trying to make out a deal is "imminent" and are making positive noises...they know it won't get through parliament.
 
Wibble said:
Isn't a border in the Irish Sea a far worse outcome than the backstop as far as Biris and the ERG concerned? So his plan is to negotiate a worse deal.than May's that they all hated and voted against?
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The Brexiteer extremists are super paranoid that there will be a second ref unless they get this done quickly, and a lot of Labour MPs are fearful of a no deal unless a deal is reached. Others from Leave constituencies also fear a second ref.

Feels like Boris is gambling that fear will get this through parliament regardless of what the DUP do, and that he can hit his promise to leave by the 31st. Most Tory voters won’t care about NI being sold down the river and he’ll be the guy who delivered Brexit. Even if the deal is rejected by parliament he can run a GE on Brexit Boris vs Parliament against the will of the people and likely win.

If MPs want to stop him, they need to vote this shit down and immediately get him out of office with a GNU in place. Probably won’t happen, but right now his position is looking fairly strong otherwise.
 
Assuming Boris manages to get all the conservatives and all the dup (he may well not)
I think he could rely on a number of the now ex conservatives who voted for Mays deal in the past... Clarke Hammond gauke... I'm guessing he wouldn't need too many other votes

As I say I think it will have a referendum amandment tagged on to it and pass with the amendment
 
sun_tzu said:
Assuming Boris manages to get all the conservatives and all the dup (he may well not)
I think he could rely on a number of the now ex conservatives who voted for Mays deal in the past... Clarke Hammond gauke... I'm guessing he wouldn't need too many other votes

As I say I think it will have a referendum amandment tagged on to it and pass with the amendment
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Thinking about it, why would they pass it with a referendum amendment if they despise the deal so much?
They hate it and think it's bad for Britain, but will vote it through with a stipulation that the UK gets to vote on it with an option of remain. So based on that, with a lot of people not bothering to do their research on what the deal actually includes, they're happy to let the public decide? What if the public vote for the deal? The MP's obviously don't like it and don't want to pass it, so if a referendum states take the deal they're just going to do so?

My betting is they'd back everything on remain to win, and if it doesn't, they have no choice but to accept this deal, which they don't like. That is why Corbyn doesn't want to add a stipulation of a referendum before an election. He wants the chance to negotiate his own deal then put it to the public. He doesn't want the public to vote on a "damaging Tory Brexit", which is why, in my opinion, he'd whip against supporting a referendum on a Tory deal and flat out rejecting it and going for an extension/GE. Any pre-election referendum would be another straight Leave/Remain if Labour have their way i'd imagine.

Lib Dems won't want a referendum either, as they want to revoke A50 and if a referendum says take the deal, they'd have to oblige, which i'm pretty damn certain they won't want too
 
If Boris thinks it's the only way to get it through he might sign up and I think enough labour SNP and libs who want a 2nd referendum would back it as well
That said it would also require a longer extension and a government that could last 6 months... So voting for it would be no guarantee it happened
 
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