Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
Devil_forever said:
What the feck is wrong with you people? @Damien @Sultan how is this not a ban able offence? I never knew the left was so civilised.
Click to expand...

Boris said that he would rather die in a ditch than ask for an extension. So the first comment is simply commenting on what he said and the second is obviously a joke based on that so it isn't anything to get upset about.

If someone jokes that they hope Corbyn gets trampled by a herd of unicorns nobody will take it as a serious hope or threat.
 
Last edited:
We have toddlers in charge of the US and the UK. Stunningly childish.
 
Or bicker endlessly with no resolution ever.

Either or.
 
The extra letter, not signing the request is grandstanding for idiots. He's giving the Murdoch press the front page story about how he is defiant, to divert attention from the fact that he's done what he said he wouldn't, and asked for an extension.
 
To be fair it was a stupid bill in the first place, 'we want an extension because we can't agree what to do'. What will you do with an extension if you got one? 'we can't agree/don't know'.
 
711 said:
To be fair it was a stupid bill in the first place, 'we want an extension because we can't agree what to do'. What will you do with an extension if you got one? 'we can't agree/don't know'.
Click to expand...

Letwin or Benn?
 
711 said:
To be fair it was a stupid bill in the first place, 'we want an extension because we can't agree what to do'. What will you do with an extension if you got one? 'we can't agree/don't know'.
Click to expand...

It was a "we want an extension to avoid no deal". If May and Johnson hadn't repeatedly run down time to try and bully parliament into voting for what they offered, it likely wouldn't have been necessary.

The problem here is nothing to do with inability to agree deals. It's the way that May and Johnson have used deadlines and "the British people" as sticks to beat parliament with to avoid scrutiny of their work, and their inability to work across parliament under the guise of it damaging negotiating power.

Contrary to what people think, a good negotiation doesn't rely on threats, it relies on communication and understanding yours and the other side's goals. These things likely never factored into the EU negotiations, it was just a tool to try and get parliament to tow the line, and it didn't work. Rightfully so, this should take as long as it takes to get an agreement through with proper scrutiny, and anyone who disagrees with that really doesn't have the interests of the country at heart, but rather their own need to be right and have their own prejudices confirmed.
 
DavelinaJolie said:
It was a "we want an extension to avoid no deal". If May and Johnson hadn't repeatedly run down time to try and bully parliament into voting for what they offered, it likely wouldn't have been necessary.

The problem here is nothing to do with inability to agree deals. It's the way that May and Johnson have used deadlines and "the British people" as sticks to beat parliament with to avoid scrutiny of their work, and their inability to work across parliament under the guise of it damaging negotiating power.

Contrary to what people think, a good negotiation doesn't rely on threats, it relies on communication and understanding yours and the other side's goals. These things likely never factored into the EU negotiations, it was just a tool to try and get parliament to tow the line, and it didn't work. Rightfully so, this should take as long as it takes to get an agreement through with proper scrutiny, and anyone who disagrees with that really doesn't have the interests of the country at heart, but rather their own need to be right and have their own prejudices confirmed.
Click to expand...
This whole thing has been done in the spirit of, “we’re British, we do what we want”. Unfortunately, that attitude has fallen on its arse before we’ve even left the EU, never mind what’s going to happen afterwards
 
T00lsh3d said:
This whole thing has been done in the spirit of, “we’re British, we do what we want”. Unfortunately, that attitude has fallen on its arse before we’ve even left the EU, never mind what’s going to happen afterwards
Click to expand...

I still can't get over this 'Global Britain' picture

3600.jpg


I always thought it exemplified the anachronistic nature of the people who want the leave the EU the most, they want to rebuild the Britain of the 1850's with the attitudes of the 1950's. It's just absurd that the rest of us have to be dragged down with them because most of the right wing press has similar views, rather than pity them which is what we should be doing.
 
esmufc07 said:


Click to expand...

Boom... they have the numbers if that's true I think...
Suspect eu would reply to the boris letter offering a long enough extension to facilitate it
But after that I dunno... I'd guess boris wont put forward the legislation for a 2nd ref so there would still have to be a confidence motion... and either a gnu to see the referendum through or an election where presumably conservatives and brexit will campaign on non second referendum
 
sun_tzu said:
Boom... they have the numbers if that's true I think...
Suspect eu would reply to the boris letter offering a long enough extension to facilitate it
But after that I dunno... I'd guess boris wont put forward the legislation for a 2nd ref so there would still have to be a confidence motion... and either a gnu to see the referendum through or an election where presumably conservatives and brexit will campaign on non second referendum
Click to expand...
Wouldn't count on it.
I can see many Labour MP's in leave constituencies rejecting it or abstaining. They'd feel like they were turning their backs on their constituents by disregarding their wishes. Plus if it's a referendum attached to the acceptance of a deal, Lib Dems and SNP will reject it anyway as they're heavily anti-brexit. They'll want a standalone ref
 
:lol: @ the DUP having to back a second referendum.

The EU will never give an extension with a Tory in office.
 
sun_tzu said:
Boom... they have the numbers if that's true I think...
Suspect eu would reply to the boris letter offering a long enough extension to facilitate it
But after that I dunno... I'd guess boris wont put forward the legislation for a 2nd ref so there would still have to be a confidence motion... and either a gnu to see the referendum through or an election where presumably conservatives and brexit will campaign on non second referendum
Click to expand...

Obviously you never know with this lot but i don't see them blocking a second ref if it gets the numbers. It would not only be depriving parliaments of it's voice but the people also and the optics on that aren't great.

Johnson will think he can win it and see it as a huge achievement if he did.
 
Brownie85 said:
Wouldn't count on it.
I can see many Labour MP's in leave constituencies rejecting it or abstaining. They'd feel like they were turning their backs on their constituents by disregarding their wishes. Plus if it's a referendum attached to the acceptance of a deal, Lib Dems and SNP will reject it anyway as they're heavily anti-brexit. They'll want a standalone ref
Click to expand...
As long as the other option is remain I think libs and snp are on board
Most of the labour people who would oppose also opposed letwins amendment and that got through
I said before yesterday I thought the 2nd ref would be the most likely to pass anyway and if it's TRUE the DUP are onside that's a 20 vote swing...

I'm not sure a gnu can hold together to deliver it though
 
Smores said:
Obviously you never know with this lot but i don't see them blocking a second ref if it gets the numbers. It would not only be depriving parliaments of it's voice but the people also and the optics on that aren't great.

Johnson will think he can win it and see it as a huge achievement if he did.
Click to expand...
It takes 6 months to run a referendum though... I cant see him staying in power that long even if he did sign up to it... but in terms of people vs the parliament and delivering on the 1st referendum I think he would have to refuse to go along and resign knowing it probably results in a ge (unless somehow a gnu could be stitched together but that looks unlikely to hold up for 6 months I think)
 
sun_tzu said:
As long as the other option is remain I think libs and snp are on board
Most of the labour people who would oppose also opposed letwins amendment and that got through
I said before yesterday I thought the 2nd ref would be the most likely to pass anyway and if it's TRUE the DUP are onside that's a 20 vote swing...

I'm not sure a gnu can hold together to deliver it though
Click to expand...
Just because Letwin passed, doesn't mean a second referendum would.
Letwin was a chance to ensure that no-deal didn't happen, and they succeeded. Having a second referendum is completely different, and as i say, many Labour MP's in heavy leave voting areas will be dead against it out of fear of upsetting their constituents. Hell, even Labour MP's themselves don't think they have the numbers for that very reason.

Lucy Powell, the Labour MP for Manchester Central, tells Sophy Ridge on Sunday "the votes probably are there now for a deal" and that "colleagues are trying to grapple with these very difficult issues".

"I really, really worry about us turning our back on those communities," she adds of constituencies Labour MPs represent that voted by a majority to Leave.

"Those advocating a second referendum know the numbers aren't there," Powell thinks.
Click to expand...

You have to remember, a lot of Labour constituencies voted leave, and the MP's representing them want to respect their wishes. They could be whipped to vote for the amendment, but nothing is stopping them from abstaining, meaning that it'll be very difficult for it to pass. Plus, they've had numerous chances to have a second ref, even with May's deal, and if an extension is secured, Corbyn will want an election straight away.
 
Brownie85 said:
Just because Letwin passed, doesn't mean a second referendum would.
Letwin was a chance to ensure that no-deal didn't happen, and they succeeded. Having a second referendum is completely different, and as i say, many Labour MP's in heavy leave voting areas will be dead against it out of fear of upsetting their constituents. Hell, even Labour MP's themselves don't think they have the numbers for that very reason.



You have to remember, a lot of Labour constituencies voted leave, and the MP's representing them want to respect their wishes. They could be whipped to vote for the amendment, but nothing is stopping them from abstaining, meaning that it'll be very difficult for it to pass. Plus, they've had numerous chances to have a second ref, even with May's deal, and if an extension is secured, Corbyn will want an election straight away.
Click to expand...
I know all that... I also know that based ok the last referendum amendment it would have passed if the DUP were onside
I also think there are now many conservatives who are independent but previously were ordered to vote against
Hence now I think it has the votes
 
sun_tzu said:
I know all that... I also know that based ok the last referendum amendment it would have passed if the DUP were onside
I also think there are now many conservatives who are independent but previously were ordered to vote against
Hence now I think it has the votes
Click to expand...
"The DUP wants to 'get Brexit done' but it must be a Brexit for the whole of the United Kngdom. Our position has been clear and it has been consistent.

"DUP MPs supported the Letwin amendment as the only avenue available to properly scrutinise the deal on offer and attempt to secure changes that could address some of the concerns we have.

"It was a situation that could have been easily avoided had the Prime Minister kept to words he penned to Jean-Claude Juncker just a matter of two weeks ago.

"The DUP does not seek a second referendum; merely implementation of the first.

"The people of the United Kingdom were asked whether the UK should leave the EU, not whether Great Britain should leave Northern Ireland behind. We want to leave as one nation. That remains our goal.

"If the Prime Minister remains willing to achieve that outcome he will find DUP MPs as willing partners in that project.“
Click to expand...
Well, that was short lived.

The DUP doesn't want a second referendum, so they likely won't back one. They'll keep rejecting the deal until they get what they want added to it.
Plus, you say independents will back a second ref, why so? Their jobs are the ones at most risk, so upset your constituents at your own peril. You're also assuming that all Labour MP's will vote for a second referendum, none abstaining and none siding with the government. Big assumption to make that if you ask me!
 
esmufc07 said:
Click to expand...


Politics is a great deal about appearances and without knowing much about what he stands for as an individual, he seems a lot more coherent, firm and inspiring than the rest of the Labour front bench.

He got a big cheer when he appeared on the big screen yesterday in the London March after the Letwin amendment passed. Abbott, Thornberry and McDonnell all appeared too, but none of them got anywhere near as good a reception. I reckon if Labour lose the next election they could do a lot worse than give Starmer a chance.
 
To be fair a second referendum was only short by 12 votes last time (280-292). Obviously a few abstentions whom would presumably vote this time, but I don’t think it is beyond the realms of possibility that it could pass.

If we do get an extension to 31 January and Boris’ deal is rejected then what else is there to do? It’ll either have to be a GE or a 2nd Ref surely? Unless we’re just going to edge to the next deadline and repeat what we’ve done since March
 
esmufc07 said:
To be fair a second referendum was only short by 12 votes last time (280-292). Obviously a few abstentions whom would presumably vote this time, but I don’t think it is beyond the realms of possibility that it could pass.

If we do get an extension to 31 January and Boris’ deal is rejected then what else is there to do? It’ll either have to be a GE or a 2nd Ref surely? Unless we’re just going to edge to the next deadline and repeat what we’ve done since March
Click to expand...
It's my guess, and nothing more, that if the EU grant an extension and Boris' deal is rejected, he'll call for a General Election and Labour will accept it. Corbyn has already said once an extension is in place, he'll commit to an election, but the problem is, would he actually be able to get a majority? Who knows?

I see it playing out like so:
Deal comes to Parliament, Second Ref amendment beaten, Deal is rejected, Boris calls for an election - gets one.

We then have an election early December
 
esmufc07 said:
To be fair a second referendum was only short by 12 votes last time (280-292). Obviously a few abstentions whom would presumably vote this time, but I don’t think it is beyond the realms of possibility that it could pass.

If we do get an extension to 31 January and Boris’ deal is rejected then what else is there to do? It’ll either have to be a GE or a 2nd Ref surely? Unless we’re just going to edge to the next deadline and repeat what we’ve done since March
Click to expand...
2nd ref will require a longer extension.... probably till June (I.e. when the next eu financial period starts)
Suspect eu would rather just offer extension till June (subject to referendum motion passing) to save another extension in jan
Under the Benn act we are obliged to accept longer extension
 
Last edited:
All the fuss about the letter is a bit ridiculous - the EU can clearly see what's happening in parliament - it's not a secret. They'll grant one if there is good reason.

I wonder who the MPs are who voted to hold the referendum in the first place, who also voted to trigger A50 without knowing what leaving the EU meant and then would vote to hold another referendum. They have to be the pits.
 
esmufc07 said:
To be fair a second referendum was only short by 12 votes last time (280-292). Obviously a few abstentions whom would presumably vote this time, but I don’t think it is beyond the realms of possibility that it could pass.

If we do get an extension to 31 January and Boris’ deal is rejected then what else is there to do? It’ll either have to be a GE or a 2nd Ref surely? Unless we’re just going to edge to the next deadline and repeat what we’ve done since March
Click to expand...

All Brexiteers including current Tory MPs and Brexit Party stooges would fully back a second referendum if they could use it to force through a hard Brexit or if they thought they could exploit it as a vehicle towards No Deal.

As it is though, they know that there is zero chance that No Deal is on the card and they know that Boris's deal won't have the support to win a second referendum against Remain.

The main problem that the Leave MP's have with a second referendum is that they know how complex the issue of Brexit is, we've already seen it in Parliament. There is 17.4 million ideas of what Brexit should be and only 1 idea of what Remain should be. Trying to put a deal on the ticket that satisfies enough of that 17.4m to win a referendum is a difficult task. For a good percentage of them, "No Deal" is the only Brexit that matters and that will never be an option. For another good percentage of them "No Deal" is a fairy tale where we have all the benefits of being in the EU with none of their perceived grievances and that deal does not and never will exist.

I think they realise it would be a difficult task to get 17.m+ people to be energised to vote for a very pragmatic deal which concedes on almost all of the advertised benefits and comes with an absolute tonne of benefits.

Boris and co are trying their best to move the goalposts to the point where getting any deal accepted and leaving the EU is seen as a political win because it's now Leave vs Remain instead of "Us vs The EU".
 
Pexbo said:
I think they realise it would be a difficult task to get 17.m+ people to be energised to vote for a very pragmatic deal which concedes on almost all of the advertised benefits and comes with an absolute tonne of benefits.
".
Click to expand...

To be fair I think the only way a 2nd ref can actually settle things is if the leave vote goes down (say 15m) and the remain vote goes up (to 20m)

More people overall Vote
The leave vote goes down
And remain gets higher total vote and higher % than leave did before

57% to 43%

I don't think that's likley though (unless they drop age to 18 and allow EU nationals resident in UK to vote... Though that in its self would be seen as a stitch up

On that basis perhaps 24m to 16m (60% to 40%)

Although remain seems to be ahead in the polls certainly not by that much and they were ahead before as well

So yeah I think remain starts slight favourite but to settle things they would need a resounding win which I'm not sure is achievable

Still I voted remain before and hope I get the chance to do so again
 
Last edited:
MadMike said:
Depending on the question, it's very likely Brexiteers (Tory + TBP) will tell the people to bastein to delegitimise it. So yeah I expect a much lower turn out.
Click to expand...

Good then an easy remain win. They can moan it's not legitimate because the turnouts lower but it won't matter.

Of course you might see the brexit party gain some votes in the future but i doubt they'll be much appetite to go at it again.
 
Smores said:
Good then an easy remain win. They can moan it's not legitimate because the turnouts lower but it won't matter.

Of course you might see the brexit party gain some votes in the future but i doubt they'll be much appetite to go at it again.
Click to expand...

I don't think you've thought this through. It's a Tory govt. They will not enact a referendum result that was done against their will and with a much lower turnout than the previous one.
 
Maticmaker said:
I thought that was the voters choice in 2016?

Groundhog day... again?
Click to expand...

No it wasn't, in 2016 it was wild promises and lies vs remain.

Now it would be a defined leave (that it's easy to prove will leave us all worse off) vs remain.
 
One thing is for sure, if the remain camp go at it with the same patronising tone of the last 3 years they will get walloped. They must outline what direction they think the EU is taking and why this is good. They will not win extra votes simply by talking about money
 
Steven Seagull said:
One thing is for sure, if the remain camp go at it with the same patronising tone of the last 3 years they will get walloped. They must outline what direction they think the EU is taking and why this is good. They will not win extra votes simply by talking about money
Click to expand...
True there will need to be a positive message this time
Also I think remain will fragment between the end destination (trade deal with USA and a Singapore type model being the priority Vs deal with Europe and close alignment )... This time one suspects leave will be pushed much harder to define this as well as the implications in northern Ireland ... Put simply saying technology means we won't need checkpoints and it will be the easiest deal in history won't be acceptable answers this time

Plus all these quotes will be run continually to remind people of the first campaign
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.in...-may-nigel-farage-eu-michael-gove-8636801?amp

Remain needs to up it's game... But they do have a lot to work with
 
You must log in or register to reply here.