# Project Fear
Brexited | the worst threads live the longest
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
# Project Fear
Writ large!!
I wish I was that optimistic. Honestly I can see no indication that the UK wants anything other than a complete break from the EU. In the misguided belief that everyone else will fall over themselves wanting to accept us with open arms.
And the hardliners would not accept anything other than this.
He's taking the piss out of you.
Of course there will be problems with Covid as there has been and will be for some time to come. Thus on top of this the UK are also leaving the transitional period at exactly the worst time imaginable.
The problem is that the free movement of goods and people will end forever (or until the UK rejoins) with or without Covid at the end of the year. Whatever happens with Covid the UK cannot ship what they like to the EU.
You said the Uk can technically do what they like from next year- if they stay as an island isolated from the rest of the world they can - if they want to trade and interact with the rest of the world including or excluding the EU, they can't. Whatever they export to whichever country, in or outside the EU, they have to comply with the regulations of the country they are exporting to.
I fear the shock will be too much for some.
Check, Change , Go.
Don't know where you're going, but you wouldn't have to do all these things if the UK hadn't left the EU, but when you weigh up the benefit of 'insert fantasy' , who could argue.
Check what guidance for what?
How to obtain a loan to pay your roaming charges when you come back from holiday next year.
Sunny uplands people:
Clap clap.
Really...? are you sure...? Oh my goodness I will have to go and lie down! Thanks for your translation I would never have guessed
Yes of course there will be deals of varying kinds, undertaken with varying countries, the difference is the UK's deals will be tailored to our needs, not to 27 other countries.
There will be 'easy' deals where what we want or we supply dovetails nicely with what others want and/or can supply to or from us, and there will be tough deals' where to get what we want we have to give more, etc. Trade is trade, if the product or service offered, or on offer, meets the needs of the supplier/recipient, and the price is right, deals will be done, they always have been. Yes there will be a 'swings and roundabouts' situation at times.
The UK has a large market to offer, not as big as the EU, but then again not all EU countries benefit from all EU deals,' made to measure' or as Boris likes to say 'oven ready' deals are what count, having control of the tape measure is key to that and we will have that control.
Its a road to a brand new world for UK trade and we are driving the bus ourselves.
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actually our WTO terms (tariff quotas) we propose have to be accepted by a lot more than 27 countries but hey I'm sure putin isnt the kind of person to remember the years and years we objected to Russia's terms ... oops hes already objected hasnt he https://mlexmarketinsight.com/insig...blocks-uks-post-brexit-tariff-proposal-at-wto
I think I've had this discussion with the original Brexiters in this thread a dozen times already. Deals are one thing, the only one of significance the UK has so far is with Switzerland which would happen if you were in the EU, the NFU or the W - they want your gold and jewellery.
No-one knows what standards the UK will have, no UK negotiators have any experience in negotiating (Liz Truss is in charge!! Fox was bad enough) and the production of your major export, cars, is owned by non-UK companies and when you leave the EU the price will jump by 10% and you sold lots to the US and China, which you weren't prevented from doing , who are not in the EU and unlikely to buy more than they have been doing°
The production of whatever you produce will have to meet the standards of the country you are exporting to, eg if you export to Australia, it's Australia's standards you have to produce to, including the packaging,.
Remembering one of the Brexiter arguments, we're fed up having to produce to EU standards, well have we got news for you.
But as I've said all along this is not the main problem, it's the delays, documentation, miles more bureaucracy ironically, it was all so simple being in the EU. But it's only when next year comes around that people will realise the mistake they made, because no-one has listened to the warnings and it's still "project fear" untli it becomes "project what the hell have we done" .
Even outside of WTO, it's wrong to claim that deals will be tailored for the UK, these aren't UK's deal they are bilateral deals and the larger market seating around the table will be the one driving negotiations, if the UK negotiate with the EU, China, India or the US, it's not the UK who will dictate the terms of deals.
Yes of course and if they want to trade with us they will, its called negotiation; hopefully Dominic Cummings will have sorted out the Civil Service Mandarins and we will get some that know what they are doing, if not then admittedly in certain matters it could be tricky.
Yes Paul I've read most of it myself, you are still only looking at things from a particular position...which has now change.
Brexit as happened and I also originally thought it was being driven from the wrong end for the wrong reasons. Theresa May could have stopped it but didn't, so we are all Brexiteers now whether we like it or not. There will be winners and losers as there always is but having your hand on the tiller and reading from your map, gives you a better chance. The post Covid world and the threat of climate change will closed down old markets and open up new ones, we need to heading in the right direction and discovering what we can do and what we can't in this brave new world.
Yes I’m sure that will make all the difference! Exciting times, rule Britannia!
What a condescending load of twaddle. I read that as a polite way of saying 'Suck it up, losers'.
putin is already turning a blind eye to the 18 years of Uk objections to Russia joining the WTO... and the thought of cummings has china prepared to totally overlook the Huawei decision, and HK visis... infact they are probably terrified cummings will go back to the old playbook of sending gunboats to attack civilians till they agree to sell opium and re-lease them HK...
well at least in brexit land ... sadly i think the reality of our world status is gonna be hit home very hard in the WTO and future negotiations (but hey everybody loves us right... at least we were not a country who ruled a third of the globe, sold slaves and took resources from the countries we invaded... everybody wants to be our friend
)I assume you're referring to Huxley's dystopian nightmare?
Definitely not! .... but I suppose it could turn out that way.
There's only one position, that of logic. You've effectively torn up the best deal you could possibly ever hope for and for the future you have no control of anything, you'll be doing what every country tells you to do, almost every other country in the world is bigger than you or part of a bloc of countries that are bigger than you, even the countries that Britain conquered centuries ago are now more powerful.
Sorry but it just not compute at all and makes no sense whatsoever. Like JRM said, maybe in 50 years you may have got back some of what you already had. You've really been had.
Brave new world....
I wish I was even half as optimistic as you seem.
For example.
Who is leading the 5G technology. Not the UK.
Who is designing and building our new nuclear power station. Not the UK.
Who is leading the production of Wind Turbines. Not the UK.
Who is leading the development and production of Electric Cars. Not the UK.
We are excessively reliant on the service sector. So much so that our shambolic government are trying to bribe people to go out for a half price meal. So rediculous.
We are turning our back on one of the biggest trading blocks in the world. And for what?
TAKING CONTROL BACK
Control of what.
Borders. That is just cutting your nose off to spite your face.
It is a headline grabber to satisfy small minded people.
You sound like someone who doesn't have control
So who’s hands is it in?
Four years since the vote, four years to move from chanting "taking back control" to chanting "taking back control". At that pace I wouldn't expect any upside in this century.
Some Brexiteers talk as if the UK is a country all others will be lining up to do trade deals with under any circumstances and, on the flip side, some others, especially on here, talk as if the UK, with the world's 6th largest economy, is essentially Afghanistan.
The point for me is that I love the EU, what it represents and the opportunities it offers to so many people, including in the UK. But that doesn't mean that, as sad as I'll be to leave, the UK won't be able to sign other trade deals or will get shafted on every one. Lots of countries sign trade deals with countries and blocs far larger than them (Australia and NZ for instance) without handing over the keys to their countries or bending over non-stop.
On top of that, from a purely economic point of view. Even if we get our trade deals with the USA, Canada, Mexico, Mercosur, ASEAN, Japan, Korea, Aus, NZ, EAEU (unlikely with all of them of course but not as impossible as people think), yada yada, I struggle to see how this will offset the negatives of more bumpy trade with the EU, especially in the short-medium term.
I'll finish with..and await the inevitable onslaught. While I personally disagree with it (and from a selfish perspective bemoan the lost opportunities my kids and their kids will have in the future), I can kind of understand some frustrations from the Brexit negotiators regarding FoM. I know the EU is based on free movement and I know the UK is in a unique position etc etc. It is of course possible though to sign a FTA without free movement (ie almost all other FTAs in the world).
The point for me is that I love the EU, what it represents and the opportunities it offers to so many people, including in the UK. But that doesn't mean that, as sad as I'll be to leave, the UK won't be able to sign other trade deals or will get shafted on every one. Lots of countries sign trade deals with countries and blocs far larger than them (Australia and NZ for instance) without handing over the keys to their countries or bending over non-stop.
On top of that, from a purely economic point of view. Even if we get our trade deals with the USA, Canada, Mexico, Mercosur, ASEAN, Japan, Korea, Aus, NZ, EAEU (unlikely with all of them of course but not as impossible as people think), yada yada, I struggle to see how this will offset the negatives of more bumpy trade with the EU, especially in the short-medium term.
I'll finish with..and await the inevitable onslaught. While I personally disagree with it (and from a selfish perspective bemoan the lost opportunities my kids and their kids will have in the future), I can kind of understand some frustrations from the Brexit negotiators regarding FoM. I know the EU is based on free movement and I know the UK is in a unique position etc etc. It is of course possible though to sign a FTA without free movement (ie almost all other FTAs in the world).
I may be reading too much but to me it seems that you are caricaturing the non-brexiteers side. No one suggested that the UK wouldn't get deals, what people have said is that against almost all the markets that you mentioned the UK are in a defavorable position either because the UK doesn't produce something that these countries need/want or because these markets are much larger than the UK and that's in response to the premise of Brexit which have been that the UK would be in a better negotiating position and would get better deals.
Australia and NZ is a pretty weird example too. I mean, they're right beside each other, and completely isolated from most other countries. Obviously they'll strike favourable trade deals. They're also probably one of the closest examples in the world to the Uk and Ireland relationship (minus the land border) and instead of trying to completely bollock that up in recent years, Australia have tried to integrate it even further (e.g. both countries closing borders except to each other during COVID-19).
It's almost as if... the best trade deals to make... are with the countries closest to you. How quaint.
It's almost as if... the best trade deals to make... are with the countries closest to you. How quaint.
Similar arguments to the above have been said to me in real life (and I've read similar stuff on here, admittedly from the same 1 or 2 posters) over the years as well. As time has gone on, I've started to find them equally as annoying as the caricatured (but at times accurate) Brexit slogans of take back control or the world will be queueing up to deal with the UK on UK terms.
There are only 3 countries with economies which are hugely more significant than the UK's (and one bloc).
I think this is what I mean though. I don't think the UK will be in a better negotiating position than these other countries at all. But I also don't think that the UK produces nothing that these countries want/ all these other countries have such larger economies than the UK and therefore don't really think that the UK will be going, begging as some seem to think/want, to do trade deals with other countries. Not least because free movement, a big factor in what many Brexiteers were upset by (whether they acknowledge it or not) is not a factor in most FTAs signed around the world.
I look around at Australia and NZ for instance at their FTAs and who they've signed them with and certainly it seems these much smaller economies have managed to sign deals without their citizens worrying too much about the Malaysians or Japanese dominating them. Or Singapore for instance, which has managed it and with a very wide range of countries as well.
Of course, the question should be was leaving the EU worth it, even for these other potential deals? And I would always say absolutely not, for so so many reasons.
But then I feel like you've said I'm caricaturing what some say about the situation, only to then basically say exactly that (all deals will be with countries that either don't really want what the UK is offering or have significantly larger markets than in the UK).
You've completely misunderstood what I've said, which I feel makes the sarcastic tone even more misplaced.
I'm saying that Australia and NZ have struck trade deals with a wide variety of countries, despite having significantly smaller economies and populations than most of those countries (I have in fact listed those countries with which Australia has a trade deal a couple of pages back, as an example of how they have clearly prioritised trade with 'local' countries, a very relative term for Australia).
Australia has the USA, Japan, Korea, China for instance. New Zealand HK, Malaysia, Thailand, China, Singapore, Chile. Amongst others, I've just plucked the deals for countries which have larger economies.
‘Covid makes Brexit make sense’ is such an insane viewpoint.
It wouldn’t make sense if we had seen a top 10 global Covid response. The fact that we’re bottom 5 makes your suggestion all the stranger.
You’re sitting in a burning building suggesting that in future, this fire could come in handy.
This is so true.
I also find the dislike many Brexiteers have for the EU as an institution incredibly distasteful. So many of them want the EU to fall, which you'd imagine would only happen in circumstances that would make a lot of peoples' lives so much worse.
Its a little like going through a breakup and wanting your ex to lose their job and end up homeless so you can feel vindicated in your decision.
Horrible stuff.
@africanspur the thing is I don't know if it's on purpose or just an omission but the idea isn't about "signing deals", it's about signing deals that are "more favorable to the UK". That distinction is important that's where you are caricaturing the non-brexiteers position and forgetting that it's the point made by brexiteers, in particular in this thread. Rare are the countries that do not have trade deals, the point was and has always been a comparison between your position in the negotiation table when you are members of a very large market and when you are alone, even smaller markets have less reasons to concede things, in particular the ones that are at the other side of the globe and don't trade that much goods with you.
I'm not really sure I understand your point. What was on purpose or by omission?
My point is that because of stupid opinions put forward by those on the Brexit side, many of us on the other side have resorted to making at times similarly stupid arguments and becoming more entrenched in this never ending cycle of silliness where one side talks as if the UK is the promised land and everyone will be begging to get some marmite and cheddar and the other as if the UK is a backwater that's about to start firing up the coal mines, putting kids back in workhouses, destroying all worker's rights and flying around the world with a bowl begging for any and all trade deals available.
Of course, the reality, as sad as it still is for me, is not going to be either of these 2 extremes. And yes of course larger blocks have more power but that doesn't mean that smaller economies, especially ones which are still as large as the UK's, will be signing a lot of unfavourable trade deals.
And this has literally nothing to do with the UK. I'd be saying the same if it was France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Netherlands, Mexico, Canada or Israel.
I also appreciate that these hardened opinions come from the instrangience of many people who voted for Brexit.