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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

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Kentonio said:
Our is definitely Northern Ireland. The second is my supposition, but I don't see how else it makes even the vaguest semblance of sense. I'd venture a guess that it's total horseshit even without the Republic.
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Yeah, that's where I'm getting stuck I guess.

My issue is probably that I am taking them too seriously. Maybe I should just see this as politicians blabbering as if they were in full campaign mode, and are trying to outbullshit each other. My problem is that this makes no sense when discussing your relationship with the EU, as there is no election, there is an actual relationship to foster (or damage) and define. But I guess everything these politicians say is with an eye on the next UK elections, and they are already getting their rhetorics (propaganda and excuses) in. This probably applied even when Frost was talking to EU representatives this week.

It's such a weird dynamic - it's hard to wrap my head around.

(I know I'm not saying anything groundbreaking here. Thinking out loud I guess.)
 
Cheimoon said:
Yeah, that's where I'm getting stuck I guess.

My issue is probably that I am taking them too seriously. Maybe I should just see this as politicians blabbering as if they were in full campaign mode, and are trying to outbullshit each other. My problem is that this makes no sense when discussing your relationship with the EU, as there is no election, there is an actual relationship to foster (or damage) and define. But I guess everything these politicians say is with an eye on the next UK elections, and they are already getting their rhetorics (propaganda and excuses) in. This probably applied even when Frost was talking to EU representatives this week.

It's such a weird dynamic - it's hard to wrap my head around.

(I know I'm not saying anything groundbreaking here. Thinking out loud I guess.)
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Northern Irish politics has a very loose relationship with rationality at the best of times. Unionists want to burn bridges and make any relationship as untenable as possible. They see the eu and its nature of removing barriers as a threat. Their primary MO these days seems to be total independence and seperation from the rest of the island, payrolled, with no oversight, by the British. Even the cool aid drinking, fantasy land unionist recognises this isn't in the slightest bit realistic and its far more likely that the opposite happens which has made them a bit fatalistic. They recognise they're kind of doomed and give off the air of a group who will go down kicking and screaming, fighting till the bitter, bitter end.
Its not entirely empty threats or bluster, there are some teeth, probably not as bad as they threaten but its there - thats their leverage.
 
Cheimoon said:
Yeah, that's where I'm getting stuck I guess.

My issue is probably that I am taking them too seriously. Maybe I should just see this as politicians blabbering as if they were in full campaign mode, and are trying to outbullshit each other. My problem is that this makes no sense when discussing your relationship with the EU, as there is no election, there is an actual relationship to foster (or damage) and define. But I guess everything these politicians say is with an eye on the next UK elections, and they are already getting their rhetorics (propaganda and excuses) in. This probably applied even when Frost was talking to EU representatives this week.

It's such a weird dynamic - it's hard to wrap my head around.

(I know I'm not saying anything groundbreaking here. Thinking out loud I guess.)
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It's good practice to never take anything Sammy Wilson or anyone from the DUP for that matter says the slightest bit seriously. Their grasp on reality is very loose and fast changes to suit whatever waffle they currently trying to spew.
 
caid said:
Northern Irish politics has a very loose relationship with rationality at the best of times. Unionists want to burn bridges and make any relationship as untenable as possible. They see the eu and its nature of removing barriers as a threat. Their primary MO these days seems to be total independence and seperation from the rest of the island, payrolled, with no oversight, by the British. Even the cool aid drinking, fantasy land unionist recognises this isn't in the slightest bit realistic and its far more likely that the opposite happens which has made them a bit fatalistic. They recognise they're kind of doomed and give off the air of a group who will go down kicking and screaming, fighting till the bitter, bitter end.
Its not entirely empty threats or bluster, there are some teeth, probably not as bad as they threaten but its there - thats their leverage.
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Indeed that perfectly describes the DUP in 2021.
 
caid said:
Northern Irish politics has a very loose relationship with rationality at the best of times. Unionists want to burn bridges and make any relationship as untenable as possible. They see the eu and its nature of removing barriers as a threat. Their primary MO these days seems to be total independence and seperation from the rest of the island, payrolled, with no oversight, by the British. Even the cool aid drinking, fantasy land unionist recognises this isn't in the slightest bit realistic and its far more likely that the opposite happens which has made them a bit fatalistic. They recognise they're kind of doomed and give off the air of a group who will go down kicking and screaming, fighting till the bitter, bitter end.
Its not entirely empty threats or bluster, there are some teeth, probably not as bad as they threaten but its there - thats their leverage.
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stevoc said:
It's good practice to never take anything Sammy Wilson or anyone from the DUP for that matter says the slightest bit seriously. Their grasp on reality is very loose and fast changes to suit whatever waffle they currently trying to spew.
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Sounds nice to have these people around in such a sensitive situation...
 
The issue here is not N Ireland. Through the GFA, the UK had fount a way to punch its products into the single market without the EU's permission and without EU regulation. That gives the UK a competitive advantage no one, not even EU members themselves have. That's the crux of the argument here.

I am very disappointed by how the EU is handling it. In my opinion, the EU should have thrown the book at the UK the moment they didn't kept their obligations. If the UK wants to scale things up then the EU can do the same. We all know who would end up without electricity and with empty shelves.
 
TheGame said:
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To be honest that isn’t a good political cartoon at all, the message is it’s too ambiguous, it’s an image could be shared by both remainers and Brexiteers alike.

Remainers: Britain had a solid deal (handshake) with the EU and chose to cut their arm off instead.

Brexiteers: Britain was under the grip of the fat and greedy EU and have made a sacrifice to get free and now feel elated and free.
 
Pexbo said:
To be honest that isn’t a good political cartoon at all, the message is it’s too ambiguous, it’s an image could be shared by both remainers and Brexiteers alike.

Remainers: Britain had a solid deal (handshake) with the EU and chose to cut their arm off instead.

Brexiteers: Britain was under the grip of the fat and greedy EU and have made a sacrifice to get free and now feel elated and free.
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Then everybody happy, gets to keep the job. Excellent cartoon
 
devilish said:
The issue here is not N Ireland. Through the GFA, the UK had fount a way to punch its products into the single market without the EU's permission and without EU regulation. That gives the UK a competitive advantage no one, not even EU members themselves have. That's the crux of the argument here.

I am very disappointed by how the EU is handling it. In my opinion, the EU should have thrown the book at the UK the moment they didn't kept their obligations. If the UK wants to scale things up then the EU can do the same. We all know who would end up without electricity and with empty shelves.
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For the moment, that's in your head. There's no evidence of any additional GB to NI trade flow that could indicate British goods being smuggled into the single market through Ireland - in fact GB-NI trade is decreasing.
 
MikeUpNorth said:
For the moment, that's in your head. There's no evidence of any additional GB to NI trade flow that could indicate British goods being smuggled into the single market through Ireland - in fact GB-NI trade is decreasing.
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That's the idea though. The integrity of the single market should not be left at the whims of a third country
 
MikeUpNorth said:
For the moment, that's in your head. There's no evidence of any additional GB to NI trade flow that could indicate British goods being smuggled into the single market through Ireland - in fact GB-NI trade is decreasing.
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If it was being smuggled, why would there be any records of increased trade flow?
 
devilish said:
The issue here is not N Ireland. Through the GFA, the UK had fount a way to punch its products into the single market without the EU's permission and without EU regulation. That gives the UK a competitive advantage no one, not even EU members themselves have. That's the crux of the argument here.

I am very disappointed by how the EU is handling it. In my opinion, the EU should have thrown the book at the UK the moment they didn't kept their obligations. If the UK wants to scale things up then the EU can do the same. We all know who would end up without electricity and with empty shelves.
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I've been feeling kind of the same, but its worth noting that after this latest offer the NI business orgs have come out praising the EU for listening to them and going above and beyond. When the UK inevitably spit in their faces again, its going to be much clearer who are the bad guys. It totally undermines the UK and DUP claims that the EU are the ones fecking NI over.
 
Kentonio said:
If it was being smuggled, why would there be any records of increased trade flow?
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The protocol stipulates that goods 'not at risk' of entering the EU avoid duties when moved from GB to NI. The fear expressed by @devilish and others is that exporters will falsely designate their goods as for 'NI only' on customs paperwork, and then be able to move them from NI into the EU due to its place in the Single Market. If this was happening at any scale you would see an increase in GB-NI trade as businesses took advantage of this potential backdoor.

When we talk about 'smuggling', we just mean avoiding duties, not literally sneaking them across the water on ghost boats like a pirate.
 
UK poultry company 2 Sisters warns of sharp rise in chicken prices


The head of Britain’s biggest poultry supplier has said that food is too cheap and warned that the price of chicken is set to rise substantially.

Ranjit Singh Boparan, the founder and president at 2 Sisters Food Group and owner of Bernard Matthews, says rampant inflation combined with the continuing lack of labour will ultimately result in higher prices.

He said Britons are facing a “Great Food Reset”, with less choice and higher prices.

“The days when you could feed a family of four with a £3 chicken are coming to an end. We need transparent, honest pricing. This is a reset and we need to spell out what this will mean,” Boparan said.

“Food is too cheap, there’s no point avoiding the issue. In relative terms, a chicken today is cheaper to buy than it was 20 years ago. How can it be right that a whole chicken costs less than a pint of beer? You’re looking at a different world from now on where the shopper pays more.”

A rise in poultry prices could hit low-income families disproportionately, as chicken is the most popular meat in the UK.

Boparan said cost rises related to wage inflation and investment in more automated production processes could see inflation reaching “double digits”.

Boparan highlighted inflationary challenges throughout the supply chain, with feed costs and wages both rising 15% in a year. In addition, the shortage of HGV drivers has led to wage inflation in the transport sector, while energy prices have gone up over 500% since last year.

Meanwhile, the price of carbon dioxide, vital in food transport, has risen nearly 500% in the past three weeks, while food packaging costs have gone up 20% in the last six months, he said.

“Inflation is decaying the food sector’s supply chain infrastructure and its ability to operate as normal,” Boparan said.

“That’s from farm to your plate. There are hundreds of farmers out there struggling, and they need our support just as much as anyone. Talk of ‘year zero’ might sound dramatic, but these are the facts: we really have to start thinking differently about what our food priorities are and what they cost.”

Bernard Matthews and 2 Sisters produce around a third of all the poultry products consumed in the UK.

The group has 600 farms and 16 factories, which employ 18,000 people.
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MikeUpNorth said:
The protocol stipulates that goods 'not at risk' of entering the EU avoid duties when moved from GB to NI. The fear expressed by @devilish and others is that exporters will falsely designate their goods as for 'NI only' on customs paperwork, and then be able to move them from NI into the EU due to its place in the Single Market. If this was happening at any scale you would see an increase in GB-NI trade as businesses took advantage of this potential backdoor.

When we talk about 'smuggling', we just mean avoiding duties, not literally sneaking them across the water on ghost boats like a pirate.
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We don't know if that is happening because the UK is withholding real time data on this matter to the only reliable partner in this story ie the EU. That was one of the many broken conditions on which the withdrawal deal lies upon.
 
devilish said:
I am very disappointed by how the EU is handling it. In my opinion, the EU should have thrown the book at the UK the moment they didn't kept their obligations. If the UK wants to scale things up then the EU can do the same. We all know who would end up without electricity and with empty shelves.
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My understanding is that nothing has happened so far because reaching consensus on responses to issues has been taking too long in the EU; but that they are now working on getting consensus on a comprehensive package of measures, so they can respond instantly if the UK indeed does what it's currently threatening with.
 
Cheimoon said:
My understanding is that nothing has happened so far because reaching consensus on responses to issues has been taking too long in the EU; but that they are now working on getting consensus on a comprehensive package of measures, so they can respond instantly if the UK indeed does what it's currently threatening with.
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There are procedures set out in the agreement if the UK violates the agreement. So far the EU have just extended grace periods.
The DUP will continue to object to whatever is put forward. At the moment the DUP are the government's useful idiots, or maybe it's the other way round.

The problem the government has is that Northern Ireland is not suffering the problems that mainland GB is. Doesn't look good for the sunlit uplands.
 
Drifter said:
UK poultry company 2 Sisters warns of sharp rise in chicken prices
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I'd be more sympathetic for this company if it wasn't flush with cash.

Pre-tax profits were up 61 per cent to £40.1 million for the parent company of 2 Sisters Food Group for its latest financial year. In the 12 months to August 1, Boparan Holdings reported sales up 1.8 per cent to £2.46 billion.17 Dec 2020
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JPRouve said:
I feel that you have a vested interest in rooting against the poultry industry. :angel:
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:nervous: shit, the French are in on it as well! How deep does the conspiracy go?
 
MikeUpNorth said:
The protocol stipulates that goods 'not at risk' of entering the EU avoid duties when moved from GB to NI. The fear expressed by @devilish and others is that exporters will falsely designate their goods as for 'NI only' on customs paperwork, and then be able to move them from NI into the EU due to its place in the Single Market. If this was happening at any scale you would see an increase in GB-NI trade as businesses took advantage of this potential backdoor.

When we talk about 'smuggling', we just mean avoiding duties, not literally sneaking them across the water on ghost boats like a pirate.
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This is of course already happening with businesses that sell to ROI. It doesn't register as an increase in GB-NI trade because most goods to ROI were already going via NI. Its not cost effective to set up an operation in NI just to get goods to mainland EU and ROI market is fairly small in the scheme of things.
 
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