So how should England deal with Egypt's formation?
If England use the 4-2-3-1 that carried them through qualifying, that should cause Egypt problems, providing they can overcome the difficulty of playing against a system they are unused to encountering. The logic of why 3-5-2 struggles to cope with a single striker is most simply put by Nelsinho Baptista, the experienced Brazilian coach who has developed software to explore the weaknesses of one system when matched against another. "Imagine Team A is playing 3-5-2 against Team B with a 4-5-1 that becomes 4-3-3," he said. "So Team A has to commit the wing-backs to deal with Team B's wingers. That means Team A is using five men to deal with three forwards.
"In midfield Team A has three central midfielders against three, so the usual advantage of 3-5-2 against 4-4-2 is lost. Then at the front it is two forwards against four defenders, but the spare defenders are full-backs. One can push into midfield to create an extra man there, while still leaving three v two at the back. So Team B can dominate possession, and also has greater width."
Advertisement
That, though, presupposes a certain quality from the wingers, and the truth is that African football – Egypt, who when fit can call on Mohamed Aboutrika and Mohamed Barakat, aside – is short of creators in general and wide creators in particular. If the winger cannot impose himself on the wing-back, then the wing-back can push the winger back, leaving the opponent's centre-forward isolated. If the wing-back is especially successful, he can effectively drive the opposing winger so far that he effectively occupies the same zone as his own full-back. That then means that the side using 3-5-2 can over-man in central midfield. That happens naturally when 3-5-2 plays 4-4-2, or, against 4-3-3, if the libero can step up to become an auxiliary midfielder, something at which Hany Said is adept.
Notably, in the past two Cup of Nations finals, Egypt's opponents have switched formation to play with a lone forward. In Ghana, Cameroon played a 4-4-2 against Egypt in their first group game, were comprehensively outplayed, and were lucky to lose only 4-2. In the final, they switched to 4-2-3-1, and successfully frustrated Egypt
before a Rigobert Song error gifted them victory. This year, Ghana similarly reshuffled their 4-4-2 to 4-2-3-1, and effectively countered Egypt until a late Mohamed Nagui winner. In both cases, Egypt, although the better team, struggled to find any rhythm, and might have been in trouble against sides of greater potency.