Interesting this in light of the comments made by Mr. Integrity after our cup win.
City and Financial Doping | Charged by PL with numerous FFP breaches
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
Interesting this in light of the comments made by Mr. Integrity after our cup win.
My point is that public pressure is important. And I think the other clubs should ensure that the heat is always turned up until they get what they deserve
He would probably claim that their 'sports science' is much more advanced everywhere he has been.
Lead by Dr Needles.
I'm all for data driven approaches, but this is exactly how analytical models should not be used. Correlation does not imply causation.
A caution that applies to R2, as to other statistical descriptions of correlation and association is that "correlation does not imply causation." In other words, while correlations may sometimes provide valuable clues in uncovering causal relationships among variables, a non-zero estimated correlation between two variables is not, on its own, evidence that changing the value of one variable would result in changes in the values of other variables. For example, the practice of carrying matches (or a lighter) is correlated with incidence of lung cancer, but carrying matches does not cause cancer (in the standard sense of "cause").
If the media were talking about this daily when there is no new developments, people would soon start to bore and fatigue of the story and City would start calling it a vendetta.
You need to be reasonable in your expectations. If City start throwing their weight around in the transfer market this summer, that’s a reasonable time to start asking questions and reviewing finances again but until either something like that happens or there’s new developments on the legal front there’s no reason for this story to keep filling column inches and yes, I appreciate that if it was Man United it would fill column inches every single day and there’s some irony in there for sure.
This isn't being used as evidence or foundation in any accusations. It simply supports the trove of documentation and evidence from other sources.
I'm all for supporting but this hides that they're the only team that's been performing consistently at 85+ points per season over the last few years. Liverpool's is affected by 2021 and current year. If you do a similar exercise for us under Sir.Alex between 2007-2013, you'd get similar results. It shows they've been the dominant club in the league during this period. Attributing this to a gap to hidden wages is casual circumstantial evidence at best.
If anything, analysis such as this undermines the real evidence finding effort undertaken by parties.
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Dodgy accounting and drugs.
Most said the timeframe would be 2-4 years, so I ain't holding my breath until something happens?
Doesnt it usually begin with correlation in order to determine causation? Its a starting point at least?
It is circumstantial, but it's an interesting visual depiction of a case that is based on evidence that isn't circumstantial. Correlation doesn't mean causation, but that doesn't mean we automatically dismiss such models as irrelevant. League points generally correlates to money spent, we've always known this. And what we know about City is they have outperformed this correlation while also fraudulently reporting their spend.
Reading the fine print of the analysis:
"Figures show 'expected points', which are based on the results a team could have expected from scoring opportunities it created & conceded in each game"
So basically xG. The theory now goes:
-> A team spending "X" amount of money is expected to create "N" many chances
-> Those "N" many chances are based on another model which is also based on a bunch of assumptions not disclosed
-> Man City have created more scoring chances than what's expected of their wage bill
-> Hence they must have cheated their wage bill
It's very difficult to break something like this down into various factors. This out performance can be a result of many many things like having a better manager, better style of play, having boat load of midfielders without a striker (it's xG after all?) etc. That's why I made the reference to United between 2005-06 to 2012-2013 seasons. We averaged 86.5 points, far above any of our nearest rivals. That was mostly due to SAF.
Am I saying they didn't cheat? Of course not, that's obvious. This analysis looks more like fitting data into theory than the reverse and I'm not surprised something like this has come post the FA announcement & didn't precede it.
Exactly.
Plus, the nearest dots are Man United and Chelsea. It's not like those sides have been consistently great in the period in question. They've been archetypes in how to waste money and underperform relative to resources.
Actually, remove those dots for being outliers here, and see the line tilt up
Honestly I agree with you. It was a clicky-bait conclusion on the part of the tweeter -- riding on the prevailing narrative of City.
The problem with this analysis is that it's using an Expected Points model.
The Expected Points model is actually quite off when it comes to guessing the points for teams at the top and bottom of leagues. Clubs in the top 4, collectively, have higher Pts than xPts, and clubs at the bottom, collectively, have lower Pts than xPts.
For example, the model claims Liverpool should have obtained 83 points in 18/19 (they got 97), and 74 points in 19/20 (they got 99). It claims Arsenal should have 49 points; they have 57. City, on the other hand, tend to get an xPts that is closer to the real value.
So there is a conceptual problem here. The author is using the fact that City is an outlier in this plot ... when in actual performance, it is Liverpool and the other clubs in the top 4 which are outliers with respect to the actual points.
The model seems to have a problem with exaggerating the relationship between xG and points. Since City get the most xG in the league by far every season, it thinks they should have a gazillion more points than its rivals.
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Why charge them at all then? Someone thinks they shouldn’t get away with it. But they probably will.
Not just saying this because I hate city
But it actually astounds me how irrelevant they are. Some of the best players in the World. Record breakers. PL title after PL title. Always in the latter CL stages... And nobody gives a feck
March 1st was the last reply about this. And everyone else seems to have just forgotten too. How huge a story would this have been if it was United, Liverpool, Arsenal?
I can't get over how pointless that club is. Hopefully their owner gets bored soon and they can go back to the Championship where a club of their stature should be
But it actually astounds me how irrelevant they are. Some of the best players in the World. Record breakers. PL title after PL title. Always in the latter CL stages... And nobody gives a feck
March 1st was the last reply about this. And everyone else seems to have just forgotten too. How huge a story would this have been if it was United, Liverpool, Arsenal?
I can't get over how pointless that club is. Hopefully their owner gets bored soon and they can go back to the Championship where a club of their stature should be
There was more uproar in our penalty award against Southampton while 7-0 up under Ole
I reckon the name should always be with an asterisk (*Manchester City*), to flag that they are fakes and irrelevant. Was done by a good few media outlets, regarding President* Trump.
Very true. I suppose plebs like us know it's going to drag on for years and can't get too excited, but it's surprising the press aren't making a big thing of it. Except it's only City, as you say.
These big laws in football are just like real life. If your rich and powerful you can skirt around them. Little less money etc and you find yourself punished.
Not to say these sides don’t deserve it, but a little consistency across the board would be refreshing.
City will get punished. It’ll just be a huge fine and that’s it. Just so other corrupt people can get paid
They're such a shit, small, irrelevant and plastic club that this just gets swept under the carpet. It barely gets mentioned.
Not quite.
City’s breaches are allegedly far more severe and take more time to punish, could be years before we see an outcome
EFL seem to be far better and more efficient at handing these out than the Premier League.
Yeah almost certainly sadly. That’s often why happens with those who can pay. Just a slight inconvenience and carry on the same.
I wouldn't have thought City would be much worried about a 6 point deduction.
Help us PL, you are our only hope.
Do you guys have a Guido Rossi in the UK? Only chance remaining.
Even if they win it, it won't be a real treble.
inhales copium
inhales copium
Horrifically irrelevant, slimy little club.
Their weirdo fans still think it’s some kind of Cinderella story, that P£p’s there because he loves the club….
Honestly wouldn’t shock me to see him try to jump ship to United if Qatar take over - limitless funding plus an actual big football club will be hit wet dream.
Their weirdo fans still think it’s some kind of Cinderella story, that P£p’s there because he loves the club….
Honestly wouldn’t shock me to see him try to jump ship to United if Qatar take over - limitless funding plus an actual big football club will be hit wet dream.
Heard Niemans is going to represent City.
They make me proud to be English
No clue how legit this is but thought it was worth somewhat of an update ….
A city fan saying the charges have gone away
They know that their lawyers money talk