Donald Trump - GUILTY!

Mike Smalling said:
I think you might be misunderstanding my post. I’m not saying this would move a single MAGA voter. I’m saying that people who don’t follow politics closely, and might not even know much about his cases might hear the “convicted felon” label and be turned off.

The MAGA people are only the most visible part of Trumps voter base. He needs a lot of normal people as well. A conviction will move some of these.
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Correct. The GOP base is much more galvanized around MAGA, whereas the Dems are more of an uncomfortable coalition between moderate/centrists and progressives, which gives the advantage to Republicans. Even so, both are slightly outnumbered by independents, which is not good news for Trump, particularly in light of the fact that Haley is still getting double digits despite having dropped out months ago.

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Morty_ said:
Why would that matter? If you are still with Trump, after all this time, a conviction isn't going to change anything, they will just scream "deep state!" and so on.

There is no reason why this should be the red line for them.
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The ones who are still Trump aren't enough to win, as @Raoul says he needs independents to win and there have been plenty of polls that show that there are many people who won't vote for him if he's a convicted felon, Trump loses 2-3% of independents he's toast
 
Red in STL said:
The ones who are still Trump aren't enough to win, as @Raoul says he needs independents to win and there have been plenty of polls that show that there are many people who won't vote for him if he's a convicted felon, Trump loses 2-3% of independents he's toast
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Well, i don't think the polls are really wrong about it, its more that people are lying to themselves and to others.

Its a natural response to say, "of course i'm not going to back a convicted criminal", but when your favorite candidate actually gets convicted, most will just find a way to rationalize it.

Not unlike how women voters were gonna abandon Trump in 16, after the Hollywood-tape, but then the majority of white women voted for him anyway.
 
Mike Smalling said:
A conviction would allow Biden's campaign to run adds calling him a convicted felon, and he can call him that in the debates as well. Trump might be teflon, but that's a bad label no matter what. I do think that will probably influence some low information voters, but it definitely won't be a collapse in the polls.
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Oh, like people would not know that he is convicted? Any adds against trump will be useless. At this point anyone had made its mind about Trump. Something new at the last minute should appear.

Trump has his voters galvanized already. Is a matter of suppressing vote for Biden for him to win, which is happening at an alarming rate.
 
4bars said:
Oh, like people would not know that he is convicted? Any adds against trump will be useless. At this point anyone had made its mind about Trump. Something new at the last minute should appear.

Trump has his voters galvanized already. Is a matter of suppressing vote for Biden for him to win, which is happening at an alarming rate.
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Finally, we more or less agree on something.
 
4bars said:
Oh, like people would not know that he is convicted? Any adds against trump will be useless. At this point anyone had made its mind about Trump. Something new at the last minute should appear.

Trump has his voters galvanized already. Is a matter of suppressing vote for Biden for him to win, which is happening at an alarming rate.
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People who are going to vote for Trump will not care one bit if he is convicted or not. In fact, I think a conviction may even help him, he will weaponise it against the judiciary.
 
Who on earth is still making up their minds about trump at this point?
 
Morty_ said:
Finally, we more or less agree on something.
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My friend, I am sure that we agree in most of the things about trump. Polling is not one of them and believe me, I hope your guts are right, polling is broken and Biden wins. Trump can't be the next POTUS
 
Morty_ said:
Well, i don't think the polls are really wrong about it, its more that people are lying to themselves and to others.

Its a natural response to say, "of course i'm not going to back a convicted criminal", but when your favorite candidate actually gets convicted, most will just find a way to rationalize it.

Not unlike how women voters were gonna abandon Trump in 16, after the Hollywood-tape, but then the majority of white women voted for him anyway.
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Which means polls are utterly useless in any context!
 
4bars said:
Oh, like people would not know that he is convicted? Any adds against trump will be useless. At this point anyone had made its mind about Trump. Something new at the last minute should appear.

Trump has his voters galvanized already. Is a matter of suppressing vote for Biden for him to win, which is happening at an alarming rate.
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I think that’s a fundamental misunderstanding of how different groups of voters in the US approach the presidential election. Some are very engaged one way or the other and have made up their minds long ago. Others barely follow the news and make their decision based on vibes days or weeks before the election.

We’re biased to think everyone is as informed as ourselves but that simply isn’t the case.
 
Mike Smalling said:
I think that’s a fundamental misunderstanding of how different groups of voters in the US approach the presidential election. Some are very engaged one way or the other and have made up their minds long ago. Others barely follow the news and make their decision based on vibes days or weeks before the election.

We’re biased to think everyone is as informed as ourselves but that simply isn’t the case.
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I am not going to dispute that as I am no from the US, but I have the feeling (like individual feelings matter much) that Trump and the time we live in with social media, people made up his mind already. The only premise that this still accomplish is Biden that is the only one that can lose or win while Trump needs to focus his efforts in vote supression.

And yes, I assume so also that the last weeks will be very important as is when the bombardment of elections will start
 
Mike Smalling said:
I think that’s a fundamental misunderstanding of how different groups of voters in the US approach the presidential election. Some are very engaged one way or the other and have made up their minds long ago. Others barely follow the news and make their decision based on vibes days or weeks before the election.

We’re biased to think everyone is as informed as ourselves but that simply isn’t the case.
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True. There's a swath of voters who are politically neither here nor there and will end up voting for whoever they find more likable, which will largely be informed by the debates.
 
4bars said:
My friend, I am sure that we agree in most of the things about trump. Polling is not one of them and believe me, I hope your guts are right, polling is broken and Biden wins. Trump can't be the next POTUS
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Well, its up to the rust-belt lottery, yet again.

Electoral college is such nonsense....
 
calodo2003 said:
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That's old news tbh. What isn't though is that his former producer said he has lots of shit on Trump and it's all on tape. Now the NDA has expired it may all come out. Sadly though, none of it will bother any of his voters. They either won't believe it, will say it's fake news and the Biden deep state is out to get him or they simply won't give a feck as many will agree with him.
 
langster said:
That's old news tbh. What isn't though is that his former producer said he has lots of shit on Trump and it's all on tape. Now the NDA has expired it may all come out. Sadly though, none of it will bother any of his voters. They either won't believe it, will say it's fake news and the Biden deep state is out to get him or they simply won't give a feck as many will agree with him.
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It ain't the base this clip would possibly sway.
 
CNN saying its likely not a hung jury given the speed of the verdict.
 
Wouldn't surprise me if he gets away on some of the charges, but would be astonished if he gets cleared on all the counts.
 
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