Tom Van Persie
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- Dec 12, 2012
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RIP Sir Frank Williams. A true legend.
How Verstappen can win title at Saudi Arabian GP
- If he wins the race with the fastest lap (26 points) and Hamilton finishes sixth (8 points) or lower
- If he wins the race without the fastest lap (25 points) and Hamilton finishes seventh (6 points) or lower
- If he finishes second with the fastest lap (19 points) and Hamilton finishes 10th (1 point) or lower
- If he finishes second without the fastest lap (18 points) and Hamilton finishes outside the top-10
Bad luck.Aren't all these scenarios improbable? What would make Lewis finish 6th or lower?
I'm a newbie here, who's also not sure who's at fault for the crash between Max and Lewis a few weeks ago.
Bad luck.
All it takes is a tyre puncture and his race is fecked.
No he's not. He's usually pretty good with tyres too. Truth is, unless he gets Max's luck from earlier this season and he has a weird tyre failure or gets crashed into, he's nailed on to win the championship.Ah, noted. Is he at higher risk of a tyre puncture than others? Only reason I can think of is he needs to drive more aggressively or his tyres are different
That's the issue. People have been too bold in their claims that he's now the favourite - yes the car looks so much better, but there are so many variables that can go wrong for Lewis. Strategy feck ups, tire blows, engine malfunctions, yellow flags, red flags, crashes, even just a mistake. Him and Mercedes have to be 100% perfect, whereas Verstappen can come around 4th in one of these races and win the other and still win the WDC.I just got a feeling something will go wrong for Lewis in one of these two race weekends.
This really is a bizarre take. The nature of the season and current standings means that neither of these two drivers is anywhere near nailed on to win it. It’s completely open. That’s why it’s so exciting.No he's not. He's usually pretty good with tyres too. Truth is, unless he gets Max's luck from earlier this season and he has a weird tyre failure or gets crashed into, he's nailed on to win the championship.
That's the issue. People have been too bold in their claims that he's now the favourite - yes the car looks so much better, but there are so many variables that can go wrong for Lewis. Strategy feck ups, tire blows, engine malfunctions, yellow flags, red flags, crashes, even just a mistake. Him and Mercedes have to be 100% perfect, whereas Verstappen can come around 4th in one of these races and win the other and still win the WDC.
No he's not. He's usually pretty good with tyres too. Truth is, unless he gets Max's luck from earlier this season and he has a weird tyre failure or gets crashed into, he's nailed on to win the championship.
Given that Verstappen is ahead in the standings, Hamilton couldn't win the championship next race, but Verstappen theoretically could. These bullets just show that would theoretically be possible - nothing more, nothing less.Ah, noted. Is he at higher risk of a tyre puncture than others? Only reason I can think of is he needs to drive more aggressively or his tyres are different
I do also think Hamilton is favorite now. He's blown Verstappen away with his engine two races in a row now, and according to Mercedes, he didn't even use his Brazil engine last time. Based on that info, Hamilton is most likely to win the next races, and if he does so, he wins the champtionship.This really is a bizarre take. The nature of the season and current standings means that neither of these two drivers is anywhere near nailed on to win it. It’s completely open. That’s why it’s so exciting.
I just disagree, sorry. There are just so many elements to F1 that a simple analysis of faster car = best chance to win race = favourite just doesn’t stack up beyond being a straw man. If both drivers were on level points then yeah sure. But they aren’t. Max has an inherent advantage because of that and therefore you can’t just ignore it in concluding. Like I said, so much can go wrong - which isn’t just based on bad luck - that could mean Hamilton doesn’t win both races. And on top of that this engine point seems to have been made into a bit of a misnomer. Hamilton didn’t have the fastest straight line speeds and actually he made up a lot of his time in a few key corners in Qatar. Add on top of that that we are only speculating that Merc Have the faster car at these tracks which may be wrong given it’s chopped and changed all season (albeit the evidence I agree does suggest it is likely to be the case). Anyway, i think your opinion that he is favourite is fine and I can understand it even if I disagree. I just things like “he is nailed on for the championship” are quite clearly and factually too far).Given that Verstappen is ahead in the standings, Hamilton couldn't win the championship next race, but Verstappen theoretically could. These bullets just show that would theoretically be possible - nothing more, nothing less.
I do also think Hamilton is favorite now. He's blown Verstappen away with his engine two races in a row now, and according to Mercedes, he didn't even use his Brazil engine last time. Based on that info, Hamilton is most likely to win the next races, and if he does so, he wins the champtionship.
Yes, anything can happen and therefore it's completely open still; but barring accidents/luck, I think it's clear that Hamilton currently has the best papers.
Oh, I agree - 'nailed on' is too strong, for all the reasons you've provided. But if I had to place a bet right now: given that Hamilton and Verstappen have both been incredibly steady racers this season, that Hamilton has had a clear advantage the last two races, and that I can't predict luck, I'd bet on Hamilton.I just disagree, sorry. There are just so many elements to F1 that a simple analysis of faster car = best chance to win race = favourite just doesn’t stack up beyond being a straw man. If both drivers were on level points then yeah sure. But they aren’t. Max has an inherent advantage because of that and therefore you can’t just ignore it in concluding. Like I said, so much can go wrong - which isn’t just based on bad luck - that could mean Hamilton doesn’t win both races. And on top of that this engine point seems to have been made into a bit of a misnomer. Hamilton didn’t have the fastest straight line speeds and actually he made up a lot of his time in a few key corners in Qatar. Add on top of that that we are only speculating that Merc Have the faster car at these tracks which may be wrong given it’s chopped and changed all season (albeit the evidence I agree does suggest it is likely to be the case). Anyway, i think your opinion that he is favourite is fine and I can understand it. I just things like “he is nailed on for the championship” are quite clearly and factually too far).
Yes they are improbable, but not impossible.Aren't all these scenarios improbable? What would make Lewis finish 6th or lower?
I'm a newbie here, who's also not sure who's at fault for the crash between Max and Lewis a few weeks ago.
And that’s fair. I think critically for Hamilton is that it is in his hands to the extent that ignoring all the many things that can happen, if he drives fast and wins he wins the title. And I agree evidence suggests he should have the faster car these races. So I think we are on the same page there. We just weight the potential “things that could go wrong” differently when picking who we’d bet on I guess. I would bet Max because a) I don’t think Red Bull will be much slower if at all (and that narrows the leeway Lewis has in any errors), and b) F1 is so unpredictable that his points advantage just gives him the edge - can not be perfect and still win the title, perhaps. It’s like in football, you might be the better team but if you’re down 1-0 at half time, you’d still have to weigh in a lot of factors before deciding if you really think the come back is on!Oh, I agree - 'nailed on' is too strong, for all the reasons you've provided. But if I had to place a bet right now: given that Hamilton and Verstappen have both been incredibly steady racers this season, that Hamilton has had a clear advantage the last two races, and that I can't predict luck, I'd bet on Hamilton.
This really is a bizarre take. The nature of the season and current standings means that neither of these two drivers is anywhere near nailed on to win it. It’s completely open. That’s why it’s so exciting.
How's it bizarre? The difference in pace the past few races was huge. If nothing weird happens Hamilton should win. Unless Red Bull suddenly find some pace like Merc have but I find that highly unlikely. Of course anything can happen, but the likely scenario is Hamilton wins.Max’s fans are worried..
I’ve already explained why in a number of posts above.How's it bizarre? The difference in pace the past few races was huge. If nothing weird happens Hamilton should win. Unless Red Bull suddenly find some pace like Merc have but I find that highly unlikely. Of course anything can happen, but the likely scenario is Hamilton wins.
Yeah, there's that as well. Another element to factor in would be that RB have generally out-strategized Mercedes during races this season, which is not in Hamilton's advantage if things come down to the wire.And that’s fair. I think critically for Hamilton is that it is in his hands to the extent that ignoring all the many things that can happen, if he drives fast and wins he wins the title. And I agree evidence suggests he should have the faster car these races. So I think we are on the same page there. We just weight the potential “things that could go wrong” differently when picking who we’d bet on I guess. I would bet Max because a) I don’t think Red Bull will be much slower if at all (and that narrows the leeway Lewis has in any errors), and b) F1 is so unpredictable that his points advantage just gives him the edge - can not be perfect and still win the title, perhaps. It’s like in football, you might be the better team but if you’re down 1-0 at half time, you’d still have to weigh in a lot of factors before deciding if you really think the come back is on!
Yeah it’s gonna be amazing.Yeah, there's that as well. Another element to factor in would be that RB have generally out-strategized Mercedes during races this season, which is not in Hamilton's advantage if things come down to the wire.
All in all, as @ZIDANE says, it's promising to be a very exciting end to the season.![]()
I've heard something along the lines that RB might consider Jeddah a bit of a lost cause so want a fresh engine for Abu Dhabi. Fact is, if all goes to form and there's no disasters Max would finish second with a 5 place penalty anyway. So if RB think they're most likely going to finish second in the race regardless, its not a bad plan.Seeing reports that max may need a new engine and grid penalty? Seems too late unless reliability issue?
I suspect in most people's minds any sympathy for Max would have gone out of the window given his, and RB's, antics this season.No he's not. He's usually pretty good with tyres too. Truth is, unless he gets Max's luck from earlier this season and he has a weird tyre failure or gets crashed into, he's nailed on to win the championship.
Don't think it's too late, as @macheda14 pointed out though, Max only needs 4th and a 1st. So if Red Bull think Hamilton is favourite to win Saudi Arabia anyway, why not take a 5 place penalty so you start 7th, aim for at least 4th and then turn it into a winner-takes-all shootout in Abu Dhabi where Max has the fresher ICE. There's obviously some risk being in the pack especially on a new street circuit with quite fresh tarmac but if you think that the Mercedes will be too quick in the last two races as things stand (which I kind of doubt but anyway), it makes sense to take that gamble.Seeing reports that max may need a new engine and grid penalty? Seems too late unless reliability issue?
The approach for Mercedes in that case could be to use the same engine as last time for Saudi, then switch it back to the Brazil one for the final race so that it’s only the second time it’s used.
Of course they won’t know to do this until it’s too late, but if they get a big lead on Sunday then they could turn the engine right down anyway to limit the wear.
It should be a cracking last two races and I just hope that the title is decided on the track and not due to a DNF or otherwise. Hamilton has all the momentum, but then has to take the bigger risks as he has to win, whereas Verstappen can afford to drive a little more risk averse (depending on position, of course) as he has the cushion of the points advantage, for Jeddah, at least. Abu Dhabi could be a straight shoot out. Whoever wins the title will have deserved it over the course of the season. Can Max and Red Bull hold their nerve?
Yup - and I really hope that the decision to run around behind a safety car just long enough to not have to refund racegoers in spa doe not prove pivotal (I think max was 1st and lewis 2nd and half points awarded so 4 point lead to max)Quite so.
With an 8 point lead, Max and RB obviously have a big advantage.
Lewis has probably got to win the last 2 and get a minimum of 50 points.
Max simply has to make no mistakes and win one race and finish the other well.
RB tactics have been stronger than Mercedes.
It will come down to very fine margins and Lewis experience and mental toughness will be an advantage.
Just hope it goes down to the last race.
I really hope nothing iffy happens this weekend, and we can take the championship down to the last race.
We haven't had a last race title showdown in a long time it feels.
Yeah, that didn't really feel like a proper battle either - I never once doubted Hamilton would win that.It was Rosberg's 2016, itsn't it?
Even that was a dull last race for me. Nothing really happened except for Lewis driving slowly at the front.