Looks like we are officially in correction territory.
Financial Markets
- Thread starter Raoul
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
Trump was an absolute bell end coupling the success of the markets with the success of his presidency. The timing of the markets falling just as people are going to the polls is somewhat poetic. That being said, I doubt it will stick to him as nothing does.
Yep. He will have massive amounts of egg on his face when markets fall back to the levels they were when he took over from Obama.....just in time for the next potus elections.
Urgh, my S&P 500 ETF was one of the few things doing well in my Sipp
Imo another crisis/recession is around the corner.
Feels like a full-on bear market ensues. Tax cuts, currency wars and other false growth flags have been driving the last leg of this bull-run for me. Do I cut my losses on emerging market fund down -16% or cling on in the hope of making that back. This is why I aren't a fund manager.
I think stock markets will recover in the short term, definitely. Yet a year or two from now I can sense a full blown recession all the ingredients are there right now for it.
I even changed my roles recently with that view in mind by securing a position which I feel has a high job security to ride out the eventual storm.
Which emerging markets your fund covers though @Jippy?
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I've got Baillie Gifford Greater China and Hermes Global Emerging Markets, but messed up and they're both quite heavy into Chinese tech, eg Tencent and Alibaba- both have been battered in the sell-off.
He either misjudged or simply doesn't understand the business cycle.
Try to get into the ones buying lithium mining companies. Couple of days ago, after the chilean antitrust regulator gave green light, the chinese Tianqi bought 25% of SQM (a chilean mining company that was state owned, but Pinochet privatized it and gave it to his son in law). China is making sure they will have all the necessary elements to produce batteries for smartphones, cars, etc.
Production set to double by 2021.
Great business for Chile lol. Now we gonna be inundated by Chinese cars.
While Bolivia, who also have massive lithium reserves, but state owned, have just made a deal with fecking Germany to create a Lithium company and produce lithium batteries for the German car industry. Now that's' a proper deal!
Anyway, lithium is a good market. It's only going up up up.
Both are also technology centred, given these tech comp. now are at very core of our economies they’ll take a proper beating if the worst is to materialise. Personally, I would try and diversify slightly (gold etf?) but what do I know.
This is very interesting, thanks.
I'll have a dig around on this, cheers, but have been horribly stung by miners in the past.
Yeah I need to diversify- there are a couple of long/short equity funds I like, but they aren't accessible on Hargreaves Lansdown
GM is cutting over 14000 jobs in North America. Do feel we are overdue for a recession.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46350057
Way ahead of schedule for a recession as far as the GOP are concerned. The actions required to guide the country out of a recession and protect the public during it go against their every fibre. It will be a blood bath.
IIRC Bush didn't handle the beginning of the 2008 recession well, Obama was the one that took the reins. I expect similar from the GOP this time around
Agree entirely with that, but they'll borrow a shedload more in the near term. By the time Trump's borrowing disaster hits home he'll be gone anyway.
the GOP - rinse & repeat.
the fcukers!
the fcukers!
You guys are talking like a recession is right around the corner - any more quantitative indicators that point in that direction?
And where it is most likely going to start, similar to how the housing market crashed the last time and started the domino?
And where it is most likely going to start, similar to how the housing market crashed the last time and started the domino?
Too long in bull market? US bond yield spread is forecasting a recession?
Tough to tell where it starts because Obama only put band-aids and weak structural changes to finance while Trump de-regulated tonnes of industries all at once. Its probably not going to be as severe or as consolidated as the great recession but more a steady decline and correction.Trump's neo-mercantilist tariffs are going to have bad echoes for the US during the next 5 years. USA healthcare is still fecked up bad as far as misaligned incentives go but thats more slow rot.
Cheers for the info.
I have a much more Euro-centric view of things but I know that the next recession is most likely to kickstart in the US again.
I can say that growth has slowed down heavily in Germany (which pulls down the whole Eurozone) and there are three effects for that. Two of those are in-house problems / domestic problems and the third effect is exports are taking a hit. Besides fewer exports, we had capped production numbers in the car industry because of new environmental regulations, a pretty fecked up affair that is but it was only short term. The last effect is the state of the labour market. Economists used to predict around 2 percent growth per year but we don‘t really have the workforce for that.
I have no idea how the US has kept on delivering much higher growth rates, at some point the labour market must have been empty? Automation, smarter immigration policies and a more dynamic labour law are the reasons I would expect, still you need skilled people to put all this into place... What I mean is you need more IT experts because of automation, not less.
Smoke and mirrors mostly. The other thing that gets me is that growth for growth sake is not good. It can be fake. I'd rather 2% sustainable real growth than 4% growth due to 'juking the stats' and increasing the real life human cost.
The labour market isn't empty because this unemployment number is another misleading statistic in this economy. Its easy to get a job. Its very hard to get a good job.
By that here is an example of a family friend I heard about - single mom works two jobs part-time for 25-30 hours week yet gets no healthcare. So after working 50-60 in hourly wage jobs then paying a tonne for healthcare for herself and her two kids she barely has enough left to cover all expenses (high rent, travel costs, babysitting after school, etc). So while the stats look good the stats are hiding the real picture. This system is of course great for the investor class - its why stock returns had been good and investors make money but consumers and workers suffer to prop that up. But great GDP stats don't pay the damn cost of medical for the majority.
Last week my brother bought Nvidia shares at 158. Today they are at 168.
It seems the down trend is over and they are getting back at it.
It seems the down trend is over and they are getting back at it.
I wouldn't go that far. The markets are extremely volatile and days are up and down.
For sure. Nvidia shares were crazy high during the last years because of the crypto world (and the need for miners), but now that all that is probably over, who knows if the shares will rise to good value again.
I'm just passing the information. I don't think my brother knows much about Nvidia or the stock market, so I'm sure one of his wall-street friends told him it was a good idea...
edit. share value back to 157. haha
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Ouch my S&P tracker is taking a beating.
Very long right?
Hydrogen manufacturers are a decent bet too. Check out the work some Norweigen companies are doing on fuelling station technologies.
This
Market in free fall at the moment. Bear market here we come.
Money far too easy for too long. Could get ugly. I follow https://twitter.com/hussmanjp ideas. Not really looking forward to 2019!
Mnuchin is an idiot.
Your Twitter account?
Not mine. Its a good account to follow for markets.
I don't see what's odd about the price drops we've seen. The share prices rose fast in the past couple of years on the back of next to nothing, not increased production, not even higher profits except for the ones the tax cut generated. Now the prices are going back to where they were and where dividends vs interest rates justify.
The sad thing is that some people will have bought at the Trump-hype peak and may have risked pensions and even taken out loans to do it. The real sharks have a lot of experience of cashing in on the unlucky and those who need money now. If the market overshoots to the point where actual businesses start to struggle, it'll mean something more, and of course automatic trading could trigger some real rollercoasters and actual runs on otherwise stable businesses.
Yesterday's "the port engine is not on fire" speech about the US banks being ok won't have helped. It'll be interesting to know where the money's going for Christmas this year - gold bars and New Zealand real estate?
Great thread
'Very few' would indicate there are huge sums that likely will go in to the market at some point then. If I did believe everyone had sold I'd say now is the time to hang on, if not be looking to buy.
I was going to ask the same question.