Ubik
Nothing happens until something moves!
- Joined
- Jul 8, 2010
- Messages
- 19,133
Nope, no one did.Didn’t they correctly predict the 2015 GE?
Nope, no one did.Didn’t they correctly predict the 2015 GE?
Ahh okay fair enough.Nope, no one did.
Prediction based on a sample of around 500 internet respondents.
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I think the youth turnout this year is going to be hugely underestimated. i think the youngsters have found a candidate that they really believe in and i think they will be out in force to vote. Whether it will make enough of a difference is yet to be seen of course.As I said above, I think there'll be an increase but it'll probably be a fairly slight one.
We've killed Caroline, though
There's bound to be a miscalculation or two mate.We've killed Caroline, though![]()
Yeah you're not wrong, i am in the south Dorset constituency and Richard Drax is a dreadful human being, but it's a true blue area so he will definitely win on Thursday.As much as I live and love London, us registering more Labour voters means little to nothing. We've been red for half a century. As have most of our cosmopolitan cities. It's the Midsommer Murders Chedder-upon-the-wolge and Little Britain Styx parts of Britain we need to turn to have any kind of impact.
Any knowledge of why they aren't fielding candidates this time?(I'm pretty sure most of the working types down here vote Lib Dem and Mebyon Kernow mind)
Yeah, that is probably likely to happen.This guy got the last election result pretty spot on.
If he's right again, I fear the next 5 years http://iaindale.com/posts/2017/06/0...inal-predictions-a-tory-landslide-is-still-on.
Labour candidate for that constituency is active on twitter and a remainer too. Increased registration numbers is promising but Canterbury has been blue forever. Thornberry did run Brazier close in 2001 though (2,000 majority) so good decision to have her campaigning there a few days ago.Had lol'ed at the idea of Canterbury being competitive but that's a big old jump.
Almost every poll is reporting an overwhelming Labour swing in wales though which is great news.Haha you're mostly right, although I think there's more to it than that.
London is largely Labour it's true, but you are surrounded by the Tory heartlands - Hertfordshire, Kent and the like.
But you're right that much of the blue vote comes from the South-west including here in second home and retirement villa central: Cornwall (I'm pretty sure most of the working types down here vote Lib Dem and Mebyon Kernow mind) - then there's a few constituencies in'tut North that are blue, not to mention the Welsh borders, even parts of Wales these days.
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problem is a large chunk of the conservative vote is of a generation that doesn't have much online presencePrediction based on a sample of around 500 internet respondents.
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problem is a large chunk of the conservative vote is of a generation that doesn't have much online presence
would the shy tory vote be an issue online? thought that would mainly be a phone and in person polling?...and those of us who don't like admitting to having certain Conservative values because of the inevitable flaming in places like this- I can freely say I voted Tory in 2015 because I joined the Lib Dems since then. At the time though, it was something I was pretty reluctant to tell people. Shy Tories if you will.
would the shy tory vote be an issue online? thought that would mainly be a phone and in person polling?
When I was living there it felt very Tory and the students very lazy, but that was ~2010 which was the height of Labour fatigue. No Cleggmania that I really recall though. By the looks of it those figures suggest there's 8k more registered, 10k majority... The YouGov model has it a tossup so you never know.Yeah, that is probably likely to happen.
Labour candidate for that constituency is active on twitter and a remainer too. Increased registration numbers is promising but Canterbury has been blue forever. Thornberry did run Brazier close in 2001 though (2,000 majority) so good decision to have her campaigning there a few days ago.
I think too much would be needed for it to be competitive: most of Lib Dems + Green voters voting for Labour as well as most of the new registrations and the UKIP vote (no UKIP candidate there this time but most will probably go Conservative) but will be interesting to see the impact Duffield has had to see if the margin of victory for Brazier isn't as big as he'd have liked.
ow he may of??...sorry, I thought DOTA made that projection using the data from the RedCafe poll above. In which case people might be shy as votes in these polls are sometimes publically visible?
EDIT: not this time mind.
I can neither confirm nor deny whether this is an accurate description of my methodology....sorry, I thought DOTA made that projection using the data from the RedCafe poll above. In which case people might be shy as votes in these polls are sometimes publically visible?
EDIT: not this time mind.
You've actually undersold Caroline by .2% there. Shame.I can neither confirm nor deny whether this is an accurate description of my methodology.
ow he may of??
but most internet polls are anonymous..... i just think the main issue witht them is those kind of polls arn't really filled in by a large part of the core conservative vote
I swear it was 3.8 at the time.You've actually undersold Caroline by .2% there. Shame.
yeah exactly, so i doubt the polls are as close as is been made out.Yes, that's a very good point.
It's the main reason why our feeds on Facebook seem to be full of Labour supporters, because most people on FB are a little younger.
Green surges, was sceptical in 2015 and I'm sceptical now. Surge-sceptical in general.I swear it was 3.8 at the time.
We're seeing a surge!
yeah exactly, so i doubt the polls are as close as is been made out.
What is worrying is if you think during the last election the polls had labour and conservatives neck and neck, and most polls now have conservative in the lead..... just makes you worry just how big their lead really is!
You'll look very silly when Lucas and Bartley are tossing a coin to see who gets to be PM.Green surges, was sceptical in 2015 and I'm sceptical now. Surge-sceptical in general.
i hope your right, but think your in for a bit of disappointment, i think its going to be a landslide to the tories, the polls still have the issues of shy tory voters and large chunk of them been done online.I actually think it might be a bit closer this time than people are thinking.
Did you know, the ICM Poll which has Labour so far ahead doesn't take some younger voters into account because they don't believe they'll even turn out and vote?
If those youngsters actually go for it, it'll be quite a ride on Thursday night.
i hope your right, but think your in for a bit of disappointment, i think its going to be a landslide to the tories, the polls still have the issues of shy tory voters and large chunk of them been done online.
but w'll see.
how u expecting the lib dems to do?
i thought about 10...... but their polling pretty simlar to 2015Ahh I won't be disappointed, I'm going for the Lib Dems.
To answer your question, better than last time surely! Maybe 15-20 seats?![]()
I feel like we need a range of gif options for after the exit poll is released. Big Tory majority is obviously this one
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