General Election 2017 | Cabinet reshuffle: Hunt re-appointed Health Secretary for record third time

[Kentonio]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...t-protected-antonio-tajani-says-a7694036.html

Brexit deal will be vetoed if citizens' rights are not protected, President of European Parliament says
Antonio Tajani says the issue is a 'red line' and its exclusion will derail any agree

If true, I love the EU

They've been very clear since the start that citizens rights were first and foremost to them. No talk of bargaining chips from their side of the channel.

 

[nimic]

The top income tax rate is hardly relevant. This study gives a different impression. Any sources for your data?

This is just red, clickable text in my Firefox. Chrome gives a long unusable link, but I believe this is what you meant. Of course, it's locked to people without access.

 

[Mozza]

Yes, it is. Its an investment fund funded by the country's reserves to prop up the pension pot. Its not a sovereign wealth fund. Its not a private wealth fund.

You keep dodging. Japan has a debt to GDP ratio of 250%. You should be comfortable with Labour borrowing huge amounts of money (we have debts at under 100% of gdp) to set up an infustructure investment fund

 

[PedroMendez]

This is just red, clickable text in my Firefox. Chrome gives a long unusable link, but I believe this is what you meant. Of course, it's locked to people without access.

I was referring to the TaxingWages2017 study, but I botched the link.
The table shows the average amount that an employee has to pay as percentage of his income. I highlighted the often cited Nordic countries and the UK. While the UK is certainly on the lower end of the spectrum, not Sweden, Norway or Denmark are on top, but countries of central Europe. That is just one part of the tax system, but the person, that I responded to didn't cite any of his sources and I doubt that a more meaningful discussion would be useful.

average amount that an employee has to pay as percentage of his income.
Country income tax / social security (employee) / social security (employer)/ total

Belgien 20,8 10,9 22,3 54,0
Deutschland 15,9 17,3 16,2 49,4
Ungarn 11,7 14,4 22,2 48,2
Frankreich 10,8 10,5 26,8 48,1
Italien 16,4 7,2 24,2 47,8
Österreich 10,8 13,9 22,4 47,1
Finnland 17,9 7,1 18,7 43,8
Tschechien 9,4 8,2 25,4 43,0
Schweden 13,6 5,3 23,9 42,8
Slowenien 9,8 19,0 13,9 42,7
Lettland 15,0 8,5 19,1 42,6
Slowakei 7,5 10,2 23,8 41,5
Portugal 13,4 8,9 19,2 41,5
Griechenland 7,7 12,6 19,9 40,2
Spanien 11,6 4,9 23,0 39,5
Estland 12,5 1,2 25,3 38,9
Luxemburg 16,2 11,4 10,8 38,4
Türkei 10,4 12,8 14,9 38,1
Niederlande 15,2 12,2 10,1 37,5
Dänemark 35,9 0,0 0,8 36,7
Norwegen 17,5 7,3 11,5 36,2
OECD-Durchschnitt 13,4 8,2 14,4 36,0
Polen 6,1 15,3 14,4 35,8
Island 26,9 0,3 6,8 34,0
Japan 6,8 12,5 13,1 32,4
USA 16,9 7,1 7,7 31,7
Kanada 13,8 6,8 10,8 31,4
Großbritannien 12,6 8,4 9,7 30,8
Australien 23,0 0,0 5,6 28,6
Irland 13,8 3,6 9,7 27,1
Südkorea 5,2 7,6 9,4 22,2
Israel 9,4 7,5 5,3 22,1
Schweiz 10,0 5,9 5,9 21,8
Mexiko 8,5 1,2 10,4 20,1
Neuseeland 17,9 0,0 0,0 17,9
Chile 0,0 7,0 0,0 7,0

 

[montpelier]

Where have all the soft-Brexit & Remainy Conservatives gone?

This is all about re-assimilating UKIP into the Tory party for me. They have done it quite brilliantly really. It looks like a plan to me, sit tight for a year, spin the line about 'will of the people' & the theme of putting the Great back into Britain, but commit to nothing except letting it be seen that it's hard-Brexit or nothing - trigger the Article 50, shore up the position by holding a General Election. All is well with the World.

 

[Smores]

Not really. If the government is locked in to a deficit of 100b in the year on top of a 500b debt, it's not realistic to reduce the debt pile. A lot of that deficit/borrowing is locked in for years and will take time to reduce. Halving it would be an excellent result but would still result in an increase in the debt. A reduction in the deficit is the most significant indicator of whether the government's measures are working or not, at least in the mid term.

What you've just posted seems to suggets you think goverment policy is the primary influence on the deficit?

You're putting goverment policy above fiscal measures, global economic environment and generally where we are on the boom-bust cycle?

 

[11101]

You keep dodging. Japan has a debt to GDP ratio of 250%. You should be comfortable with Labour borrowing huge amounts of money (we have debts at under 100% of gdp) to set up an infustructure investment fund

I'm not dodging anything. Japan's debt has nothing to do with their pension fund, that's not where the debt came from. Its high because their economy has been stagnating for years with productivity and cultural issues, and the huge earthquake two years after the global recession didn't help. It's also not really 250% of GDP as around half of it is owned by the Bank of Japan ie they own their own debt.

An infrastructure fund in the UK would be great if we had the money to fund it, but until we get rid of the deficit we dont. Borrowing even more to create it is just stupid, frankly.

 

[altodevil]

Can we talk about Theresa may's weird face instead or something

 

[11101]

What you've just posted seems to suggets you think goverment policy is the primary influence on the deficit?

You're putting goverment policy above fiscal measures, global economic environment and generally where we are on the boom-bust cycle?

Its an example.

Fiscal measures are mostly temporary anyway and don't help much with long term trends, and you can view the UKs performance against global trends. Its still pretty much the same - Labour increase the debt and the Tories reduce it.

Id support borrowing to build real infrastructure like Heathrow's new runway but never just to plump the NHS up further or waste it on pointless PFI projects. We're better off trimming the inefficiency out of what we have.

 

[Smores]

Its an example.

Fiscal measures are mostly temporary anyway and don't help much with long term trends, and you can view the UKs performance against global trends. Its still pretty much the same - Labour increase the debt and the Tories reduce it.

Id support borrowing to build real infrastructure like Heathrow's new runway but never just to plump the NHS up further or waste it on pointless PFI projects. We're better off trimming the inefficiency out of what we have.

Hmm not sure you answered my question but i think you know thats rubbish anyway. The economic cycle over which a party governs is a significant impact on those figures.

I don't think anyone would disagree with reducing inefficiencies/waste thats a moot point. Investment into the NHS isn't just 'plumping' it up or 'throwing money at' as the tories like to carefully phrase.

We have a huge opportunity to invest to build in infrastructure, housing, green technologies, robotics. We're not allowed though because of party dogma on budgets and debt, in a way Labour have to go high on figures so the tories can do half and claim responsibility.

 

[Stanley Road]

I love the EU

I just vomited

 

[rcoobc]

I just vomited

Someone has to protect our rights

 

[Mozza]

I'm not dodging anything. Japan's debt has nothing to do with their pension fund, that's not where the debt came from. Its high because their economy has been stagnating for years with productivity and cultural issues, and the huge earthquake two years after the global recession didn't help. It's also not really 250% of GDP as around half of it is owned by the Bank of Japan ie they own their own debt.

An infrastructure fund in the UK would be great if we had the money to fund it, but until we get rid of the deficit we dont. Borrowing even more to create it is just stupid, frankly.

Dodge, dodge, dodge. A third of our debt is owed to the Government to itself so the room to borrow is huge compared to your example of Japan. Borrow, build some brand spanking new assets for the country. Flog them to pension schemes if you're queasy about holding long term debt. Your argument that we are too indebted to borrow is busted

 

[Smores]

I predict we'll see a lot of the Labour Shadow Cabinet and virtually non of the actual cabinet during this campaign. May simply trust them.

 

[Ubik]

This doesn't seem well thought out.

 

[Smores]

Dodge, dodge, dodge. A third of our debt is owed to the Government to itself so the room to borrow is huge compared to your example of Japan. Borrow, build some brand spanking new assets for the country. Flog them to pension schemes if you're queasy about holding long term debt. Your argument that we are too indebted to borrow is busted

Its recognised globally right now that infrastructure investment is needed even Trump a republican campaigned on huge infrastructure investment.

Private industry just isnt interested and most of the money particularly pension funds goes to existing infrastructure as its less risky. We need lots of projects particularly in the north.

 

[Dobba]

This doesn't seem well thought out.

Agreed. 'Do You Care About Other People?' should be the only option. The Tories have plenty of apologists without a pot to piss in.

 

[Unmutual]

This doesn't seem well thought out.

When you need to win over a couple of million people who voted Tory two years ago, starting out by insulting them strikes me as a daft move.

 

[Dobba]

When you need to win over a couple of million people who voted Tory two years ago, starting out by insulting them strikes me as a daft move.

Where is the insult in that chart? Is the party they vote for cutting disability benefit coming as a surprise to these cretins?

 

[Sweet Square]

Clive continuing a great and forgotten Labour tradition.

 

[Smores]

When you need to win over a couple of million people who voted Tory two years ago, starting out by insulting them strikes me as a daft move.

Where's the insult? Its voting intention based so unless indicating someone is intending to vote wrongly is an insult im confused.

Its hardly serious, just a useful way of pointing out they cater to the rich and act like they care for people.

 

[Ubik]

When you need to win over a couple of million people who voted Tory two years ago, starting out by insulting them strikes me as a daft move.

Pfft, we were told 2 years ago that you don't need Tory votes to win elections.

 

[Unmutual]

Where's the insult? Its voting intention based so unless indicating someone is intending to vote wrongly is an insult im confused.

Its hardly serious, just a useful way of pointing out they cater to the rich and act like they care for people.

If you're reading it as a strict logic chart, you're missing the point. Its a meme that suggests people who vote Tory are rich & selfish.

 

[Ubik]

If you're reading it as a strict logic chart, you're missing the point. Its a meme that suggests people who vote Tory are rich & selfish.

Don't forgot those that are too thick to recognise the elegant truth.

 

[Silva]

If you're reading it as a strict logic chart, you're missing the point. Its a meme that suggests people who vote Tory are rich & selfish.

The main reason put forward in this thread by Tory voters is they want lower taxes. Are we meant to pretend that's not selfish?

 

[Unmutual]

The main reason put forward in this thread by Tory voters is they want lower taxes. Are we meant to pretend that's not selfish?

It's not if they believe lower taxes benefits people other than themselves.

Besides, forget the moral judgements for a second and focus on utility - how does this help Labour win over Tory voters?

 

[Dobba]

Besides, forget the moral judgements for a second and focus on utility - how does this help Labour win over Tory voters?

People who will be voting Tory at this election are happy for the most vulnerable people in society to continue to be shafted. I think everyone else can and should take 30 seconds out of campaigning to point at them and call them what they are. Especially if it leads to 'journalists' making sure everyone knows they're an idiot who can't follow a two step (at most) flowchart.

 

[PedroMendez]

This chart tells us only something about the people who agree with it.

 

[Cheesy]

When you need to win over a couple of million people who voted Tory two years ago, starting out by insulting them strikes me as a daft move.

Not particularly surprising though, considering this is the party who tried to win back people who switched to the SNP by saying they'd effectively voted Tory.

 

[Ubik]

Tories were ahead by 19 points among C2DEs in the last YouGov.

 

[Stanley Road]

Clive continuing a great and forgotten Labour tradition.

That's great, gonna put that on my wall at work

Edit: Done

 

[Smores]

Im sure people spent all of the US election being fine with anything that demonised his supporters. I don't see the tory voters as any better than those republican voters.

 

[Dobba]

Im sure people spent all of the US election being fine with anything that demonised his supporters. I don't see the tory voters as any better than those republican voters.

They're worse. They've seen years of what their chosen political party does to vulnerable people, either directly or through the services they need and have decided they're fine with it continuing. At least the Trump lot had naivety as an excuse, no matter how feeble.

 

[montpelier]

I reckon that one's internal negotiation taking place is more along the lines of ''I deserve more'' than ''I want more'' coupled with the FACT that the scroungers down the bottom are getting plenty more than they either need or deserve anyway.

So not regarded as what they would designate as ''selfish'' when the decision is being taken.

Also, ''everyone has or should have the same opportunities.'' Or they can believe really very firmly & honestly in working towards that. Later on preferably, in most cases.

 

[Cheesy]

https://www.ft.com/content/83e7e87e-fe64-11e6-96f8-3700c5664d30

Interesting economic read.

Between 2007 and 2015, the UK was the only big advanced economy in which wages contracted while the economy expanded. In most other countries, including France and Germany, both the economy and wages have grown.

Italy and Portugal are yet to reach their pre-crisis levels on both measures, while in Finland and Spain real wages grew in periods of economic contraction.

The UK sits on its own as a rich economy that experienced a strong economic performance while the real wages of its workers dropped.

Britain’s GDP went back to pre-crisis levels in the third quarter of 2013 and it is now nearly 10 per cent larger than in the second quarter of 2008. Yet in 2014 wages were almost 10 per cent lower than seven years before. During the same period, salaries in France and Germany grew 7 per cent.

The contraction of UK real wages was reversed in 2015, but it is not going to last. “We expect a squeeze on income growth over the next few years,” writes Jonathan Loynes, chief economist at Capital Economics in a note, “but it should be limited by past standards.”

There are various reasons for the exceptional case of the UK, not least a shift towards lower-paid jobs, low productivity levels and growth, a strong rise in employment and higher inflation.

Only the US and Canada have greater flexibility in labour market regulation than the UK, according to the OECD. Thanks to a more flexible job market, people were able to find jobs quicker than in other countries. Employment expanded by 2.4 per cent in the six years to 2013, while in France there was no job expansion and the EU as a whole experienced job losses.

After the crisis, labour supply increased, but these “unusual increases in labour supply” were absorbed by the market, writes the OECD in its latest country survey. Pension reform and other policies contributed to the increase in supply with a rising number of older workers and incentives to work rather than live off benefits. Meanwhile “sustained inflows of well-educated immigrants have boosted the working-age population”, says the OECD.

Such employment expansion coincided with the loss of labour bargaining power due to the risk of unemployment and “slack” remaining higher than pre-crisis levels. Unemployment, underemployment and involuntary part-time working, for example, were far above their levels in 2008. Coupled with low and falling levels of unionisation, employment growth came at the expense of a fall in real wages.

The expansion has begun to slow, not just because of the Brexit vote, but also because the economy is close to full employment, reducing downward pressure on wages.

Inflation is likely to squeeze real wages in the next couple of years just as it did after the crisis.

Between 2007 and 2015 the UK had one of the highest inflation rates among big advanced economies, largely because of high energy prices and the depreciation of the pound.

Consumer prices expanded at an annual rate of over 5 per cent at their peak in September 2011, well above the rate of expansion of nominal earnings.

Now inflation is rising rapidly once again.

It is expected to exceed 2.5 per cent this year because of the pound falling further. But in a tight labour market, high inflation “may make it harder for firms to award small pay increases”, says Capital Economics.

Employment growth was driven largely by self-employment and part-timers, while the number of full-time jobs shrank. “The rapid rises in employment over the past few years have been made up by a larger than usual share of low-skilled jobs which tend to be lower paid,” says Capital Economics.

The number of managers fell more than 24 per cent in the eight years to the third quarter 2015, while the number of sales and service workers expanded by a similar amount.

So as manufacturing and financial services lost workers, the workforce in accommodation and food services expanded.

The trend is now reversing, and the number of managers, professionals and technicians grew in the last year, while the number of elementary occupations contracted. Which means that the composition of jobs should stop pushing the average real wages level down.

UK employment expanded at the expense of capital stock, which contributed to low (and falling) levels of productivity. In turn, lack of investment growth hampered productivity with negative effects on wages. “Whether pay drives productivity, or productivity drives pay, they go hand in hand,” as Sarah O’Connor, our labour correspondent, puts it.

Inflation and the dynamics of the labour market are pulling real wages in opposing directions. Ultimately further progress in living standards rests on boosting productivity growth, a challenge for the coming years.

 

[DenisIrwin]

 

[Blodssvik]

I was referring to the TaxingWages2017 study, but I botched the link.
The table shows the average amount that an employee has to pay as percentage of his income. I highlighted the often cited Nordic countries and the UK. While the UK is certainly on the lower end of the spectrum, not Sweden, Norway or Denmark are on top, but countries of central Europe. That is just one part of the tax system, but the person, that I responded to didn't cite any of his sources and I doubt that a more meaningful discussion would be useful.

average amount that an employee has to pay as percentage of his income.
Country income tax / social security (employee) / social security (employer)/ total

Belgien 20,8 10,9 22,3 54,0
Deutschland 15,9 17,3 16,2 49,4
Ungarn 11,7 14,4 22,2 48,2
Frankreich 10,8 10,5 26,8 48,1
Italien 16,4 7,2 24,2 47,8
Österreich 10,8 13,9 22,4 47,1
Finnland 17,9 7,1 18,7 43,8
Tschechien 9,4 8,2 25,4 43,0
Schweden 13,6 5,3 23,9 42,8
Slowenien 9,8 19,0 13,9 42,7
Lettland 15,0 8,5 19,1 42,6
Slowakei 7,5 10,2 23,8 41,5
Portugal 13,4 8,9 19,2 41,5
Griechenland 7,7 12,6 19,9 40,2
Spanien 11,6 4,9 23,0 39,5
Estland 12,5 1,2 25,3 38,9
Luxemburg 16,2 11,4 10,8 38,4
Türkei 10,4 12,8 14,9 38,1
Niederlande 15,2 12,2 10,1 37,5
Dänemark 35,9 0,0 0,8 36,7
Norwegen 17,5 7,3 11,5 36,2
OECD-Durchschnitt 13,4 8,2 14,4 36,0
Polen 6,1 15,3 14,4 35,8
Island 26,9 0,3 6,8 34,0
Japan 6,8 12,5 13,1 32,4
USA 16,9 7,1 7,7 31,7
Kanada 13,8 6,8 10,8 31,4
Großbritannien 12,6 8,4 9,7 30,8
Australien 23,0 0,0 5,6 28,6
Irland 13,8 3,6 9,7 27,1
Südkorea 5,2 7,6 9,4 22,2
Israel 9,4 7,5 5,3 22,1
Schweiz 10,0 5,9 5,9 21,8
Mexiko 8,5 1,2 10,4 20,1
Neuseeland 17,9 0,0 0,0 17,9
Chile 0,0 7,0 0,0 7,0

The Sweden number is wrong. It's the median which is in a lower income bracket. The average is higher.

 

[Ady87]

It's not if they believe lower taxes benefits people other than themselves.

Besides, forget the moral judgements for a second and focus on utility - how does this help Labour win over Tory voters?

It's not meant to I don't think..

 

[Ubik]

Im sure people spent all of the US election being fine with anything that demonised his supporters. I don't see the tory voters as any better than those republican voters.

Indeed, it's not at all like the Clinton "deplorable" line backfired massively.

 

[Cheesy]

Well that'll be a sure way to defeat.