It's a poll showing general sentiment, not the political dynamic at the constituency level. Take Richmond, for example: If a sizeable number of Lib Dems defect to Labour, you are in all likelihood handing the seat back to the Tories.
General Election 2017 | Cabinet reshuffle: Hunt re-appointed Health Secretary for record third time
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
It's a poll showing general sentiment, not the political dynamic at the constituency level. Take Richmond, for example: If a sizeable number of Lib Dems defect to Labour, you are in all likelihood handing the seat back to the Tories.
More Lib Dems in the last-but-one YouGov wanted May as PM than Corbyn (tabs on the latest one haven't been released yet).
That could be smart.
Curious, if you back Corbyn at 21, and let's say the gap narrows in the polls to 3-4%, which is within margin of error territory, does Betfair then require both ends to reach an agreement? Presumably the person who lays the bet has to be willing to sell at a loss? Or does it work differently?
Sorry for mini derail, but Betfair is now interesting me
Once you back or lay the bet it's locked in to the pool, rather than between each other so you don't need an agreement to get out. If you want to get out of the bet later on you have to take the current market price. So let's say I back Corbyn at 21, the polls narrow and the price moves to 10s, so I decide to cashout, I'd be essentially accepting a new bet from a different user to do so. The original user who laid my bet at 21 would keep their bet at those odds, it's just I've 'sold' it to someone else.
That someone else wins at 10s if Corbyn wins, but the original guy who laid the bet still pays out at 21s. The difference between the two is my profit. Hope I've managed to explain it well but I'm not sure!
Thanks, that's a very good explanation. Similar to a general exchange, just without a centralized price setter. Very interesting.
Had I large sum of money, I'd do the opposite. That is, lay Corbyn to win at about 40-1 as the gap narrows (presuming this is possible).
I'm working from the vantage point of the Conservatives will win, it's only a matter of landslide or slight gain.
I'm tempted at bets on either a hung parliament or Corbyn. Didn't go with my gut on Brexit and regretted it. I'm kind of having a similar feeling now.
This election is like Liverpool v City where I want both to lose.
A last minute equaliser with lots of red cards would be great.
If people do vote Tory or anyone cos of what they read in the media, then they get what they deserve.
I despise democracy tbh. I don't believe that the majority of people are worthy of voting. My mother, who lives in David Davis's constituency, likes him, voted Brexit and is now voting LibDem at the GE.
She worries that May/Corbyn could damage her granddaughters' future, yet she helped ensure that they will unlikely ever be able to work or live in Europe.
Most people are idiots. We need Plato's benign philosopher king.
Cruciate for Diane Abbott. Too much, maybe.
I love the idea of true communism tbh but it will always be ruined by greedy feckers and turned into a dictatorship.
I'm not pro-Tory but at some point you have to recognise that all the polls are probably not massively wrong. Why would anyone who wants to get rid of a Tory government not be angry at a Labour leader making such a piss-poor go of doing it? He's a politician about to lead his party to probably it's worst election performance in more than 100 years. I don't get why he isn't the subject of ire rather than treating him like a special needs fat kid whose trying his hardest at sports day and gets a sympathy applause.
Genuinely don't get why people are so protective over a leader who is pretty much guaranteeing another 5 year term for a party everyone agrees is making life harder for working people in this country. I'm flabbergasted at people who claim to hate the Tories being so supportive of a man they know deep down is probably the number 1 reason behind their massive poll lead and inevitable massive majority on 8th June
Genuinely don't get why people are so protective over a leader who is pretty much guaranteeing another 5 year term for a party everyone agrees is making life harder for working people in this country. I'm flabbergasted at people who claim to hate the Tories being so supportive of a man they know deep down is probably the number 1 reason behind their massive poll lead and inevitable massive majority on 8th June
The same leader that has managed to cut the same polls you have mentioned in to single figures with over 2 werks to go? The same leader that has managed to get a potentially record amount of young voters registered to vote? Those youngsters aren't polled either i would imagine.
Vote tory by all means but this is a silly post imo.
Sad but true Jippy, unfortunately Lee Kwan Yew died a couple of years ago but he's probably the closest we'll ever see. Even then his regime could be fairly authoritarian but Singapore today is testament to the fact that the betterment of society as a whole was his only real goal.
I'm fairly committed to the Left without being active or silly (I hope) about it. I strongly dislike most Tory attitudes & viewpoints.
I didn't think Corbyn was electable in any way at all & was being a silly sausage in many ways.
I think he has campaigned well & looked very good actually.
Isn't going to win, mind. But I think he's come across very well - for transmitting the message & style, so on.
I didn't think Corbyn was electable in any way at all & was being a silly sausage in many ways.
I think he has campaigned well & looked very good actually.
Isn't going to win, mind. But I think he's come across very well - for transmitting the message & style, so on.
Interesting how some people on my Facebook feed that had plenty to say about the leaked Labour manifesto are strangely silent about the Tory one.
They've really shot themselves in the door foot with that. Blatantly obvious they're relying on Brexit fears to drive them over the finish line.
They've really shot themselves in the door foot with that. Blatantly obvious they're relying on Brexit fears to drive them over the finish line.
Jesus! Yeah that's pretty racist and sorta of xenophobic.
Yeah a majority is miracle stuff.
Oh and the tweet in the spoiler is when Corbyn account got hacked, well so he says.
Your a lot closer than you think.
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Anyone who thinks it's going to bad under the Torys, and I think it will be, but I shudder to think the mess Corbyn will leave behind.
Then everyone will blame the Torys again, for having to sort it out.
Then everyone will blame the Torys again, for having to sort it out.
This twitter account.
Ordinary bookmakers don't really set odds either. Well they set them initially, but very soon alter them according to the amount of money bet on each outcome. If you attempt to bet a large sum at the odds offered they are likely to refuse it, or offer to take it but at lower odds. The whole objective of making a book is to ensure that that they make a profit whichever side wins, they don't personally care which it is.
Nope. The political needle swings left and right and when it goes too far in either direction it needs pushing back. Currently it's so far right it's about to fall off the fecking dial. Four more Tory years is going to create the kind of mess the country might not recover from for a very long time. You can't destroy half the countries public services and then just put them back the day after we eventually get another Labour government. The NHS is teetering on the brink right now.
I sort of agree, but how do you explain the almighty feck up of the last Labour Government, which essentially got us into this mess in the first place? How far to the left was Blair?
The majority of people on this forum are actually openly critical of the guy, check the Corbyn thread. And much of society and the media, in general, seems to hate him. Most people who defend him are doing so not because they think he's the best thing since sliced bread, but because they think he's a better option than May. It's a two horse race so you're always going to get a few people are strongly support one side, which we also have here. The truth is most people are not enamoured with either option, me included.
I complain about him quite a bit and at times I'm angry with his decisions but I'm still voting for him. To me it's a choice between evil or incompetent, a choice between definitely shit or possibly shit. If the Tories committed to increasing corporation tax and spending it on public services, I reckon a lot of the people like me who're voting for the lesser of two evils would vote for May instead.
You say almighty feck up, but look at it as a whole. They came into power, pushed everything left and for quite a while improved the country a lot. It was only towards the end of their time in office that they started coming undone and the country needed a change. They didn't actually push that far left especially after the first term because they were basically center right anyway, but they were still to the left of the previous government.
Take out the Iraq War (because let's face it, the Tories would have done exactly the same) and that Blairite government was overall one of the best we've had. I say that as someone who never voted for them at the time incidentally.
To clarify, the number that's being put about as "new registrations" is really just new applications to register. Plenty of those will already be registered, others won't be eligible. We had the same thing during the EU referendum.
Youngsters very much are polled, them overstating their likelihood to vote and their willingness to take polls is actually one of the factors that's led to Labour's vote being overestimated in the past.
Here's your answer
Umm, exactly.
Blair was an unusually popular pm, except particularly in two respects:
The Iraq war, which the Conservatives wholeheartedly supported.
He failed to introduce regulation to protect the UK from the world banking and financial meltdown, however the Conservatives themselves always want less regulation, not more.
In general I don't think Blair was far to the left at all, although I think Brown was more that way.
What do you mean?
It's the gift that keeps on giving for the media, never has a more inept clown led the opposition.
You could also include PFI, civil liberties, the EU, immigration, motorists, farmers, super bugs, New Labour's target oriented culture, top-down education 'reforms' e.t.c. e.t.c.
Feckin hell. Amazing. Has someone got a massive bung on the Tories? Expect suspicious betting patterns
Barry Gardiner is very good whenever I see him.
His point was that when the pendulum swings too far to the left, or right, it needs rebalancing. The fact that Blair was so close to the centre rather debunks that opinion.
Except it doesn't. Under the conservative government before Blair, the needle had swung considerably to the right. Blair being a centrist meant it still swung back left under his administration. Not particularly over into the left of the gauge, but rather back towards the centre. Its now swung hard back to the right (probably further than we've seen in modern political times) and we have a choice between sending it even further right, or taking a dramatic swing back slightly left of centre.
The view in the U.K. is that May still has a lot of centrist aspects to her politics. Her stance on employee rights and free market scepticism has disappointed the right in her party, for example
It doesn't debunk that opinion at all.