Keir Starmer Labour Leader

Contrarian view:

His polling is still doing ok. It wasn't more than a month ago that the centrists here were trumpeting a polling lead (which never existed in the averages AFAIK), but despite a fall since then they're still close. Just a little bit off the 2017 result, which was the best performance for the party since 2005.

I think it's interesting that in 2017, there was a hard Brexit party just above 40, and a soft Brexit party just under 40, and as their stances got confused they both dived, and then you had Boris coming in and Labour changing its stance, giving a hard Brexit party at 45 and a neutral/remain party at 30. Right now, it looks like the 2017 status quo, in terms of both Brexit policy and polling (though probably "soft" Brexit is not the right way to describe Starmer's policy since leaving his Brexit job).
 
berbatrick said:
Contrarian view:

His polling is still doing ok. It wasn't more than a month ago that the centrists here were trumpeting a polling lead (which never existed in the averages AFAIK), but despite a fall since then they're still close. Just a little bit off the 2017 result, which was the best performance for the party since 2005.
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His personal ratings have fallen dramatically and particularly with BAME voters. He's in a bad way.
 
DOTA said:
His personal ratings have fallen dramatically and particularly with BAME voters. He's in a bad way.
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i think corbyn's personal ratings were also bad except for a small spell around the 2017 election.

haven't followed this much in the past, has there been any labour leader with good ratings since ~2004? definitely not corbyn or milband, brown's were awful when he lost, and i think blair's had nosedived by 2005 too?
 
berbatrick said:
i think corbyn's personal ratings were also bad except for a small spell around the 2017 election.

haven't followed this much in the past, has there been any labour leader with good ratings since ~2004? definitely not corbyn or milband, brown's were awful when he lost, and i think blair's had nosedived by 2005 too?
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https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/political-monitor-satisfaction-ratings-1997-present

I dunno. Think it's all in that link but I'm not about to read it.
 
DOTA said:
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/political-monitor-satisfaction-ratings-1997-present

I dunno. Think it's all in that link but I'm not about to read it.
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Wow Blair's numbers collapsed in 2002, years before I thought.

I think what this data clearly shows is that there are no structural barriers for Labour to overcome, and it is all about the unpopularity of far-leftist cranks like Corbyn. As wiser people have said (though their wisdom has deserted them of late), a competent leader would be 20 points ahead of the incompetent Tories.
 
Jippy said:
No-one cares about PMQs anyway. Even when he did put in some good early performances it barely registered.
It's the least of his problems.
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Quite agree. I only listen to it on the radio if I happen to be listening at the time.
Not since Tony Blair has Labour had a PM who knew how to perform on the public stage.
It is still a very long time before Labour are able to win back the public confidence.
 
Simbo said:
Well when you put it like that, the left is the best option by far.
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It’s a real frustration for me as a ‘casual’ follower of politics (more casual than 90% of people in this thread anyway) that whenever I devote any time to look at it in more detail I inevitably end up banging my head against the nearest wall in no time
 
DOTA said:
I think Rashford showed you can reach normally disinterested people if you pick the right issue and message well. As did Farage.
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You can but on very specific issues and we're counting examples on one hand here. I'm just highlighting the disconnect between extremely engaged individuals on here who think 'most people' catch the highlights of PMQs with the reality that probably under 5% watch the news, let alone give a shit about PMQs.
 
berbatrick said:
Wow Blair's numbers collapsed in 2002, years before I thought.

I think what this data clearly shows is that there are no structural barriers for Labour to overcome, and it is all about the unpopularity of far-leftist cranks like Corbyn. As wiser people have said (though their wisdom has deserted them of late), a competent leader would be 20 points ahead of the incompetent Tories.
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Not a massive surprise. The writing was on the wall in 2002 for the illegal war to follow. Labour inflicted massive self harm with that conflict that is still yet to be fully overcome.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...lin-powell-memo-chilcot-inquiry-invasion-iraq
 
Fluctuation0161 said:
Not a massive surprise. The writing was on the wall in 2002 for the illegal war to follow. Labour inflicted massive self harm with that conflict that is still yet to be fully overcome.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...lin-powell-memo-chilcot-inquiry-invasion-iraq
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Hate to break it to you but that war was also fully endorsed by the Tories who were in opposition at the time so we'd have gone to war under either main party not just Labour.

It was a shambles decision too and clearly was nothing to do with safety. If anything the world became a lot.more dangerous off the back of those wars.
 
More and more disappointed in him and his leadership of the party.

I'll probably still end up voting labour next election because the Tories are such cnuts and the electoral system doesn't provide much choice in this country but if things don't change, it will be with quite a heavy heart.

I was really willing to give him a chance and defend him before too. What a shame.
 
Nou_Camp99 said:
Hate to break it to you but that war was also fully endorsed by the Tories who were in opposition at the time so we'd have gone to war under either main party not just Labour.

It was a shambles decision too and clearly was nothing to do with safety. If anything the world became a lot.more dangerous off the back of those wars.
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Labour were in government at the time, which is my point.

You will rarely, if ever, find me defending the Tories! And I'm not doing here. Just pointing out the self harm inflicted by the Labour party started many years ago. Was compounded with losing Scotland and here we find ourselves. Just over 12 months after many were blaming Corbyn for all of Labour's problems.
 
africanspur said:
More and more disappointed in him and his leadership of the party.

I'll probably still end up voting labour next election because the Tories are such cnuts and the electoral system doesn't provide much choice in this country but if things don't change, it will be with quite a heavy heart.

I was really willing to give him a chance and defend him before too. What a shame.
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Agreed. His leadership pledges were something I could get behind.

But it seems he is a typical politician and will say whatever it takes to gain position, but lacks substance, conviction and accountability.
 
africanspur said:
More and more disappointed in him and his leadership of the party.

I'll probably still end up voting labour next election because the Tories are such cnuts and the electoral system doesn't provide much choice in this country but if things don't change, it will be with quite a heavy heart.

I was really willing to give him a chance and defend him before too. What a shame.
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That is pretty much my opinion as well.
To say that I expected better is an understatement. Nevertheless, I do appreciate that it is very difficult for the opposition to make much of an impact during a pandemic. It is obvious that he struggles mainly due to his lack of charisma.
All I can realistically hope for is that the electorate open their eyes and minds to the total incompetence of Boris and his appalling government in time for the next election...
 
Fluctuation0161 said:
Labour were in government at the time, which is my point.

You will rarely, if ever, find me defending the Tories! And I'm not doing here. Just pointing out the self harm inflicted by the Labour party started many years ago. Was compounded with losing Scotland and here we find ourselves. Just over 12 months after many were blaming Corbyn for all of Labour's problems.
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I agree but I'm just saying that the Tories would have taken us too. They overwhelming voted in favour of taking action too just like Labour.

We were deceived by the Yanks and awful 'information' on WMD's.
 
esmufc07 said:
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Have you missed the nationalist, nostalgic surge of the last five years? Whatever the true value of Trident as both a deterrent (very questionable) and in making the UK a genuine independent nuclear power (don’t the US control it?), there’s no way Starmer, as leader of the Labour opposition, can commit to giving it up and win an election. Along with the UN security council seat, it’s the last fig leaf for the concept of the UK as a major player. An idea 52% of the population seem to buy into heavily.
 
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Opinium poll for the Observer has revealed.

A year into the pandemic, the poll gives the Tories a 7-point lead over Labour, up from 5 points a fortnight ago. It is the biggest lead since July, with the Conservatives on 43% of the vote and Labour down 1 point on 36%. It also suggests greater public support for the government’s handling of the latest phase of the pandemic and the roadmap out of lockdown measures.
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As ineffective as Labour have been, it's mad how the government's past mistakes are all swept under the carpet and forgiven by the public for getting the vaccine rollout right... and the only thing they have arguably done for that is source contracts for them. The NHS and army are mainly responsible for it's successful rollout.
 
Compton22 said:
As ineffective as Labour have been, it's mad how the government's past mistakes are all swept under the carpet and forgiven by the public for getting the vaccine rollout right... and the only thing they have arguably done for that is source contracts for them. The NHS and army are mainly responsible for it's successful rollout.
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If this were an election then Labour attack posts would write themselves. I think Starmer is doling out the rope still. He might even be taking the rawk approach of want Bozo to stay in the role for as long as possible.
 
A big part of it is that his main priority is not to win over voters, it is to reshape the Labour Party. If he leads for four and a bit years, loses a few more seats but successfully removes the left of the party and encourages right wing donors, sufficiently so that his successor is as right wing as him, he'll consider his term successful. I'm not convinced he remotely knows how to do that though, based on his actions so far, so what's actually gonna happen I imagine is he'll fail miserably in every regard and the next leader will be a compromise candidate like Ed Miliband was.
 
DOTA said:
A big part of it is that his main priority is not to win over voters, it is to reshape the Labour Party. If he leads for four and a bit years, loses a few more seats but successfully removes the left of the party and encourages right wing donors, sufficiently so that his successor is as right wing as him, he'll consider his term successful. I'm not convinced he remotely knows how to do that though, based on his actions so far, so what's actually gonna happen I imagine is he'll fail miserably in every regard and the next leader will be a compromise candidate like Ed Miliband was.
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Wasn't he supposed to be a similar left-centre compromise?
 
berbatrick said:
Wasn't he supposed to be a similar left-centre compromise?
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It wasn't really a compromise situation in the end. That would only have worked if Jess Phillips hadn't run away once she realised she doesn't have an interest in politics.

Only two of them lasted more than five minutes.
 
Compton22 said:
As ineffective as Labour have been, it's mad how the government's past mistakes are all swept under the carpet and forgiven by the public for getting the vaccine rollout right... and the only thing they have arguably done for that is source contracts for them. The NHS and army are mainly responsible for it's successful rollout.
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The billionaire owners of the media, for the most part, benefit from the Tories being in power. Coverage will always be favorable to them over Labour. They even managed to convince many people that a life long anti racist campaigner was in fact a racist.

Also, Starmer himself is not holding the government to account enough. So even the BBC are not being forced to cover the government failings with any regularity.
 
Mart1974 said:
If this were an election then Labour attack posts would write themselves. I think Starmer is doling out the rope still. He might even be taking the rawk approach of want Bozo to stay in the role for as long as possible.
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Starmer has been rolling out the rope for so long now that broken ankles are the best we can hope for.
 
Fluctuation0161 said:
The billionaire owners of the media, for the most part, benefit from the Tories being in power. Coverage will always be favorable to them over Labour. They even managed to convince many people that a life long anti racist campaigner was in fact a racist.
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He might or might not have been a racist but he was sure as hell at best negligent about anti Jewish racism. Don't blame the media for his uselessness on that score, it just undermines whatever other relevant points you might have to make.
 
Compton22 said:
As ineffective as Labour have been, it's mad how the government's past mistakes are all swept under the carpet and forgiven by the public for getting the vaccine rollout right... and the only thing they have arguably done for that is source contracts for them. The NHS and army are mainly responsible for it's successful rollout.
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You have to give (and the public will give) the govt some credit for the vaccine strategy here, both in terms of how they bet on and sourced the vaccines - choosing an experienced medical venture capitalist was really smart - and now on the speed of the rollout. Nothing labour can do about it, the govt is making the weather here. That's just the politics of it but it won't last. Covid as the dominant political issue will be over in a few months, and the govt will be subject to more normal laws of political gravity soon. The public doesn't seem inclined to blame the govt for much of the covid incompetence yet - much as the public rallies to govt in times of war - but seems to me this govt remains a disaster waiting to happen. So still all to play for.
 
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Nou_Camp99 said:
I agree but I'm just saying that the Tories would have taken us too. They overwhelming voted in favour of taking action too just like Labour.

We were deceived by the Yanks and awful 'information' on WMD's.
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The public was deceived but the govt wasn't, they sexed up the evidence to make it appear as if Iraq was a direct threat to the UK, and the govt did it (a) because they felt it important to be on side with the US (b) because to many in New Labour, Saddam was a truly disgusting individual and there was a moral imperative to remove him if there was a chance of doing so (c) they thought it was low risk. They were wrong of course, and also because they didn't think thru the consequences (although not about Saddam being disgusting). Either way, it was a long time ago and I genuinely think labour needs to stop beating itself up about this.
 
nickm said:
He might or might not have been a racist but he was sure as hell at best negligent about anti Jewish racism. Don't blame the media for his uselessness on that score, it just undermines whatever other relevant points you might have to make.
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Actually, my whole post was relevant and accurate. Whether or not you deem certain points as undermining other parts is irrelevant.

Maybe you should read it again. Rather than changing the parameters.
 
nickm said:
He might or might not have been a racist but he was sure as hell at best negligent about anti Jewish racism. Don't blame the media for his uselessness on that score, it just undermines whatever other relevant points you might have to make.
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It's interesting that there's no general outcry over Starmer and his mates banning what would be Liverpool's first minority female mayor from standing in their next mayoral election because she's a bit of a socialist. The right wing Labour types are all liberal and progressive until it potentially involves taking power away from middle class men, and then suddenly they're not interested in promoting diversity or discouraging discrimination in the slightest. No money in standing candidates with principles tbf.
 
Fluctuation0161 said:
Actually, my whole post was relevant and accurate. Whether or not you deem certain points as undermining other parts is irrelevant.

Maybe you should read it again. Rather than changing the parameters.
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I don't think I can bear reading another post from you denying corbyns antisemitism issues let alone re reading the last one, so I'll pass thanks.
 
nickm said:
he public doesn't seem inclined to blame the govt for much of the covid incompetence yet - much as the public rallies to govt in times of war - but seems to me this govt remains a disaster waiting to happen. So still all to play for.
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I think their calculation is that the public at large don't want to see the opposition 'playing politics' at this time. I think its a dynamic that's probably played out in most countries where the public are not interested in the usual political discourse and bickering. It appears to be the case in Holland at least.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...dutch-politics-analysts-say-as-elections-loom
 
Classical Mechanic said:
I think their calculation is that the public at large don't want to see the opposition 'playing politics' at this time. I think its a dynamic that's probably played out in most countries where the public are not interested in the usual political discourse and bickering. It appears to be the case in Holland at least.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...dutch-politics-analysts-say-as-elections-loom
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They obviously don't want to see an opposition leader do nothing either which is why he's at his worse personal polling. Competence, decisive, strong leader have all reduced month on month and these are supposed to be his selling point.

It's impressive to lose ground whilst having the media not even bothering to attack you.

He's becoming a meme, leader of the no-position. They think it's making him credible but voters expect the alternative to have plans and views on big issues.

I'd excuse it if he was at least out selling himself to the electorate but he doesn't even have the charisma to do that.
 
The problem here is the tories are being reported on everywhere, in the public eye constantly. No reports on labour at all, all people see are tories and a lot of it positive news (Albeit incorrect or twisted)
 
Classical Mechanic said:
I think their calculation is that the public at large don't want to see the opposition 'playing politics' at this time. I think its a dynamic that's probably played out in most countries where the public are not interested in the usual political discourse and bickering. It appears to be the case in Holland at least.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...dutch-politics-analysts-say-as-elections-loom
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I think this sort of polling always ends up being biased towards the status quo, because Starmer isn't opposing the public treat that as the natural state of things and, when confronted with a hypothetical, say they don't like the alternative.
 
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