Fascinating development. FFP is certainly the most interesting thing to happen in football off the field since Abramovich took over Chelsea and ushered in the billionaires age.
The fact that they have cast the net wide enough to include City in this first round imo signals a real intent to make this happen. It would have been easy to stick with banning clubs like
Atletico Madrid and offering them an easy way to get the ban lifted, or to set the bar so high that only PSG and (next season) Monaco are included. By making this list 20 or so teams strong they're making it clear that this isn't just for wild offenders, they're rounding up all teams in breach of the rules (by the way Liverpool would be in this list if they were in a UEFA competition this year).
The important thing to remember about FFP is that it is not a punitive measure. It is a
preventative measure. The difference is crucial. Yes its true that no preventative measure will ever be truly successful without the threat of punitive action behind it, but it makes a big difference in what constitutes a good outcome for UEFA.
The best outcome for UEFA is that all the teams in its tournaments follow FFP criteria. The worst outcome for UEFA is that they expel high profile teams.
So that means a few things. Firstly no-one is going to get kicked out this time round, and probably ever. Kicking teams out will only be for serial offenders who refuse to take on board the need to meet FFP criteria. Every team will be given multiple opportunities to get back on track.
Fines are far more damaging than they sound. If your owner is worth billions, whats a few million, right?
Here's the thing. If you're limited to £30M losses over 3 years then, say, a £5M fine is actually a bit of a pain. Its no problem for some billionaire to pay.
But the point is that the billionaire can't pay it, as FFP prevents sugar daddies from dipping into their pocket every five minutes. The only people for whom fines don't matter are those who are flagrantly ignoring the rules, in which case the fines will only be the first stage of an escalating fall out between them and UEFA. For those that are trying to meet FFP, fines are a major irritant and teams will want to avoid them.
I guess transfer embargoes will be for those that are not really taking any meaningful action to get their house in order, as a half way step to expulsion. It doesn't force them to sort the problem out, but it partially sandboxes the club in financial terms and at least prevents things from getting worse. I suspect this will happen only a few times for the worst offenders and in practice will be the real worst punishment.
Expulsions will probably never happen. But again, UEFA don't want it to happen. If PSG. The notion of the expulsion of clubs is just because you need the threat to make the whole system work.
Its important to recognise how much FFP has already changed things. Look at Chelsea. Why didn't they go in for Cavani and Falcao last season? Part of it was waiting for Rooney, who was half the price, but part of it was that those kind of splurges are now rare treats for them and we now know that FFP was the reason for that. Mourinho has made it clear that
selling Mata was at least in part due to FFP. City may be breaching FFP right now, but they're
trying to meet them at least in theory. There seems to be a general acceptance that clubs need to meet FFP - at the very least, no one wants to be closest to the whip.
As for our club - well frankly this is good news, though I feel a bit guilty about it. However it all works out its clear that the majority of clubs are now making efforts to meet FFP, or at least look like they are. Even if the lines UEFA have drawn are a little more flexible than they admit, the simple fact is that we are in a elite group of clubs that, basically, can spend more on players than other clubs. Even the most avid red in me recognizes that its pretty unfair. But its an advantage nonetheless.