Withdrawing and recanting are two different things. You can withdraw as a witness without recanting the statements you've already made. Recanting is new material.
I don't think this changes anything in relation to what I've said.
We've been told, "the alleged victim requested the police to drop their investigation in April 2022". That suggests a withdrawal, not recanting.
The CPS statement then says, "In this case a combination of the withdrawal of key witnesses and new material that came to light meant there was no longer a realistic prospect of conviction."
Reading those two statements. The most plausible explanation, in my opinion, is the alleged victim withdrew hench requesting investigation dropped. This is then referenced by the CPS as one of the winess(es) which withdrew. The new material is then very likely referencing an extended audio (which we know exists) or other evidence.
What alternative explanation are you trying to suggest?
- In April 2022 the alleged victim didn't try to cancel the investigation and Richard Arnold lied about that?
- Instead they recanted their statement.
- There wasn't an extended audio which provided an explanation, Richard Arnold also lied about this.
- When the case was dropped the 2 or more witness withdrawals aren't referring to the alleged victim.
- The "new material" is actually the alleged victim recanting their statement despite trying to cancel the investigation from April 2022.
Plausible? Yeah anything is plausible. It's unlikely though unless you believe Richard Arnold told multiple lies in his public statement. It would also imply many of those involved in the investigation lied to.
If your theory requires multiple individuals to have lied on record then I think you'd agree its probably less likely to have happened compared to other scenarios which don't depend on a fabricated investigation/statement from United and where both CPS/United statements would collaborate one another.
Again, of course what you're saying could be plausible. I just personally think it's much less likely and feels like a bit of a forced explanation with round pegs in square holes. I think we will likely have to agree to disagree on this one as I can't see either of us backing down. I respect your view and admit it could be a plausible explanation, I just think my own presumption is the more likely out of the two at present as it gits with what we've been told so far rather than being dependant on one investigation being filled with lies.