We dont even need to do any fancy points averaging. We just wont finish above liverpool, city or chelsea. So theres one shot at top 4. If everything stays the same, i fancy Conte to get spurs going, what moyes is doing at west ham doesnt look a fluke plus they sold a stake to a czech billionaire which means january funds and Arsenal look like they will probably beat most of the teams they should beat, albeit by a cagey 1-0(which we dont do).
At this rate, if we stick with him, unless he more or less wins every remaining league game, I dont think we will get the europa league.