Politics at Westminster | BREAKING: UKIP

The way matters are progressing another hung parliament seems to be increasingly likely, although producing a more muddled and less durable coalition than the one at present.
This hasn't been a coalition in any meaningful sense, it has just been Clegg and co propping up a Tory government for their own self-aggrandisement.
 
Think this man could be the one to reach out to Labour and beyond.
Alan Johnson
alan-johnsonweb_2897952b.jpg
 
I reckon Chuka's next for Labour, everyone's far enough up his arse.
he is the bookies favourite just ahead of yvette cooper but if he would carry the votes from the unions / left of the party I'm not sure - it could be another case of instead of voting for who they like (Ed Balls / D Milliband) people vote for someone in the middle to stop the one they dont want getting in - though in fairness that's proved a pretty bad mistake in this instance
 
You can see why they might eb reticent now, nobody wants to appear in disarray and be absorbed by internal debates this close to an election.

An i'm not sure that even his brother would be charging off into the distance with an unassailable lead, parties are not simply lacking convincing characters but strong and visionary political agendas.
It would be suicidal indeed to do it now, which is why they're complete morons for even contemplating it. I wouldn't mind if Labour were down in the polls and headed for further opposition, but they're in the lead and a majority isn't an unlikely outcome. They've been stalking around since he won waiting for a chance to stick the knife in, but they're massive pussies and probably still wouldn't have done it even if the Great David had still been around, who's a far better leadership prospect than anything else they could come up with. I love Alan Johnson, but I doubt he'd be willing to aid in any regicide, nor am I sure he would want to be leader at any rate.
 
I read the other day that some wihin labour are 'worried about winning in 2015' because they hate ed so much. I'd not be averse to those people getting chucked out if found to be honest, pretty much everything I dislike about modern politics.
 
I read the other day that some wihin labour are 'worried about winning in 2015' because they hate ed so much. I'd not be averse to those people getting chucked out if found to be honest, pretty much everything I dislike about modern politics.

To be fair, their reservations about Miliband are understandable since he's terrible. Although it's not good for politics to see so many sharpening their knives in order to ensure they don't have to come out against him themselves. If they want him gone, this should've been done a lot earlier, although they've left it too late and the rumours will only harm Labour's chances next year.
 
Kiss of death and Johnson is an arse anyway, despite his impeccable credentials. Ed has been a disappointment but it's too late to change now.

There is also the sense of that ship having sailed [and similarly the time to remove Ed with any dignity], with the candidacy immediately following Brown being his moment.

How concerned are you and other Labour supporters on here by these poll numbers for the SNP at present? Are you confident that ultimately they won't manifest come the general election? Depending on how badly the Lib Dems perform, they could be an important albeit controversial actor next year.
 
No one will probably do it this close to the election, but the more the rumours continue, the more of a joke Miliband and his party appear to be. An opposition leader should be looking like a strong, electable figure this close to an election.
 
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/pol...r-six-months-as-Ed-Milibands-woes-worsen.html

A three point swing from Labour to the Tories in the past month, although the margin is so small that the story only has legs were to be consolidated.



Knives are primed - http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/nov/08/ed-miliband-crisis-labour-mps-back-leadership-change

Let's see if anyone has the bollards to stab. Knowing the shadow cabinet, probably not.

If that is true then Johnson has to declare his support for Ed sooner rather than later, for any continued silence or equivocal remarks would speak for themselves.

Do we have any floating voters on the Caf? How many of you would be more likely to back Labour should Johnson become leader of the party under these circumstances?



Whilst i may be treading water at present i can't see myself swimming over to the red beach, but then i was never likely to. :smirk:
 
If that is true then Johnson has to declare his support for Ed sooner rather than later, for any continued silence or equivocal remarks would speak for themselves.
He already has done:

“For the avoidance of doubt, I have no intention of going back to frontline politics,” he told the Times. “I support Ed Miliband, I’m a candidate at the next general election, so I’ve got an interest in it and I think it’s eminently winnable. Even if I was completely despondent – as I’m not – the law of political gravity is that you do not spend two or three months of a precious six-month period up to the general election having an internal fight about who the leader should be.”
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/nov/08/embattled-ed-miliband-labour-plotters-circle-coup

The older Blairites at least have the nous to know a suicidal act when they see one.
 
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/pol...r-six-months-as-Ed-Milibands-woes-worsen.html

A three point swing from Labour to the Tories in the past month, although the margin is so small that the story only has legs were to be consolidated.





If that is true then Johnson has to declare his support for Ed sooner rather than later, for any continued silence or equivocal remarks would speak for themselves.

Do we have any floating voters on the Caf? How many of you would be more likely to back Labour should Johnson become leader of the party under these circumstances?



Whilst i may be treading water at present i can't see myself swimming over to the red beach, but then i was never likely to. :smirk:

What's so great about Johnson anyway?(Didn't he sack the drug advisor for criticised drug policies).I get that Ed's pretty rubbish but he's sort of rubbish in Gordon Brown way which isn't such a bad thing compared to the alternative of Cameroon who's actual a cnut.

While this election will be again about the fight for the centre ground(mostly the centre right) I do think there's a slightly but small growing left and(I would vote for the Greens if it actual meant something) but I still get the feeling of pointlessness. I just can't help getting the feeling I'm in a country full of mostly cnuts.
 
:o

Ah, well that certainly doesn't resemble something equivocal. And if anything represents a telling-off for his colleagues in the shadow cabinet. The cynical side of you still wonder what his answer might be if the deed is done mind.
As per the article they don't want to do it unless he essentially agrees to take over in advance. Not sure where they get the idea that the rest of the parliamentary party, unions and membership would agree to such a coronation. Likelier result would be civil war within the party greater than anything under Blair and Brown, even further fall in trust in the eyes of the public, and another Conservative-led coalition. Then again they might prefer that to an Ed Miliband premiership. I'm just longing for a switch to PR so that Labour can finally split into two separate entities, it's over as a united force.
 
What's so great about Johnson anyway?(Didn't he sack the drug advisor for criticised drug policies).I get that Ed's pretty rubbish but he's sort of rubbish in Gordon Brown way which isn't such a bad thing compared to the alternative of Cameroon who's actual a cnut.

While this election will be again about the fight for the centre ground(mostly the centre right) I do think there's a slightly but small growing left and(I would vote for the Greens if it actual meant something) but I still get the feeling of pointlessness. I just can't help getting the feeling I'm in a country full of mostly cnuts.

i suppose he falls into mostly unobjectionable category, and one who didn't find himself neck deep in the expenses scandal.

I would question your certainty about the middle ground deciding matters though. I know that this has often been the rule in the past, yet with the polls hinting at a surge for both UKIP and the SNP the proportion of those who veer farther to the left or right could determine the fate of many a constituency. As well as the number who stay at home of course.
 
As per the article they don't want to do it unless he essentially agrees to take over in advance. Not sure where they get the idea that the rest of the parliamentary party, unions and membership would agree to such a coronation. Likelier result would be civil war within the party greater than anything under Blair and Brown, even further fall in trust in the eyes of the public, and another Conservative-led coalition. Then again they might prefer that to an Ed Miliband premiership. I'm just longing for a switch to PR so that Labour can finally split into two separate entities, it's over as a united force.

I knew who the players were when the Brownites and the Blairites were briefing against each other, in this instance the factions of scheming couriters are less well defined. If the pattern of the past is repeated we might see the PPS of some junior shadow minister told to stick their head above the parapet [which could fizzle out ignominiously create a worse perception].
 
i suppose he falls into mostly unobjectionable category, and one who didn't find himself neck deep in the expenses scandal.

I would question your certainty about the middle ground deciding matters though. I know that this has often been the rule in the past, yet with the polls hinting at a surge for both UKIP and the SNP the proportion of those who veer farther to the left or right could determine the fate of many a constituency. As well as the number who stay at home of course.
Yeah your properly right.As my only reasoning for the middle ground deciding matters is that I think people in a general election with revert to type and chose between the big two. Although at the moment it's showing that's not that case. Also I know it's going to happen but I still struggle to believe that some people are actually going to vote UKIP in a general election.
 
Also I know it's going to happen but I still struggle to believe that some people are actually going to vote UKIP in a general election.

Let's see how some of their candidates hold up to the scrutiny of the media in the run up... Remember Mr bongo bongo man
It won't take too many things like that for a lot of people who say they will vote UKIP to have second thoughts.
 

Such conviction will only make these plotters wish for his leadership to a greater extent, for all that it appears they chose the unwilling candidate to elevate to power. Methinks that those behind this need to improve their skills at intrigue.


Let's see how some of their candidates hold up to the scrutiny of the media in the run up... Remember Mr bongo bongo man
It won't take too many things like that for a lot of people who say they will vote UKIP to have second thoughts.

Have they not already suffered from this during both council and European elections yet remained fairly resurgent?

There are also constituencies of varying locales that have been neglected by one or more of the traditional parties, UKIP and even the Greens find themselves with a head-start simply for not being one of the main three.

Even should a damaging quantity of stories emerge as the campaign progresses it does not necessarily follow that they'll flock back to Tories/Labour/Lib Dems, i would exepct many of those voters to opt to stay at home instead.
 
The latest IpsosMORI poll shows support for two main parties is at 61% meaning it is possible that even with the Lib Dems (who are surely going to be annihilated anyway) it may not be possible to form a majority. Some kind of "rainbow coalition" may be needed, or we may be entering a world of minority governments.
 
The latest IpsosMORI poll shows support for two main parties is at 61% meaning it is possible that even with the Lib Dems (who are surely going to be annihilated anyway) it may not be possible to form a majority. Some kind of "rainbow coalition" may be needed, or we may be entering a world of minority governments.

One political commentator i heard said that there is an expectation within the civil service for the country to have two elections in quick succession.

When you consider all of the possible permutations it could be quite a coil that Westminster will find itself in.
For instance, the SNP may on the one end up giving Labour a mauling in Scotland, yet on the other represent a swift route to a majority in the Commons. However with Miliband's current stance on English votes for English laws, he'd have to be more than a tad brazen to go through with it i'd have thought.

Things wouldn't be much simpler for Cameron either, should he secure enough seats to form a second coalition that is. If he were to go through with a referendum characters like Farage and Boris will be front and centre, and we know that a section of the party view Johnson as a candidate for leader.
 
I'm enjoying how absurd the rich are looking in complaining about the potential Mansion-tax. Can't buy a garage for that these days, apparently.
 
I'm enjoying how absurd the rich are looking in complaining about the potential Mansion-tax. Can't buy a garage for that these days, apparently.

Yeah, Myleene Klass' comments were ridiculous.:lol:
 
I recognise you're one of the good guys pete, but that's a bit racist in itself for me. Let's just stop categorising people in all the ways that it is done and accept each other as individuals.
 
The system as-was certainly seems to be coming apart at the seams. Tories haemorrhaging MPs and votes to UKIP, Labour on the verge of being decimated in Scotland by the nationalists, Lib Dems just generally dying... Westminster come June 2015 is going to have a very uncertain outlook.
 
I know what you mean Ubik, but I recall that this was said even more when the 'gang of four' created the social democrats, who seemed a real force for a while, before they fizzled out and ended up having to sidle closer to the Liberals to save what was left of their own careers.

Whatever happens, the end result in modern politics is always a scramble to claim the middle-ground, simply to get elected. That's where some folk got the scottish referendum wrong - an independent scotland would not have guaranteed a permanent tory victory in england at all, it would just have shifted the fabled middle-ground over a bit. Rightly or wrongly.
 
I'm enjoying how absurd the rich are looking in complaining about the potential Mansion-tax. Can't buy a garage for that these days, apparently.

“You may as well just tax me on this glass of water' was the highlight for me.
 
I know what you mean Ubik, but I recall that this was said even more when the 'gang of four' created the social democrats, who seemed a real force for a while, before they fizzled out and ended up having to sidle closer to the Liberals to save what was left of their own careers.

Whatever happens, the end result in modern politics is always a scramble to claim the middle-ground, simply to get elected. That's where some folk got the scottish referendum wrong - an independent scotland would not have guaranteed a permanent tory victory in england at all, it would just have shifted the fabled middle-ground over a bit. Rightly or wrongly.
Possibly, I wasn't around at the time of the SDP so can't be certain we're not seeing a re-run of that, but even so it doesn't seem like just another schism in the left (or right in this case), it's a pretty wide-ranging and simultaneous rejection of the established parties by core parts of their vote. Turnout has long been declining, as has the share of the vote between the two bigger parties, two factors that seem far more like trends than phases and speak to a fairly widespread disaffection with the way politics is in the country right now (if anyone saw PMQs earlier, it's hard to blame anyone for feeling that way). Unfortunately this has allowed a pretty nasty force like UKIP an opportunity to seize, and they're doing a pretty damn good job of it (as indeed are the SNP north of the border). I really hope UKIP are just a short-lived fad but I fear they'll be in parliament now for a while yet, though hopefully not in government. It's going to be a very strange looking parliament, and I'm pretty sure the 5-year rule won't hold for it!

“You may as well just tax me on this glass of water' was the highlight for me.

I'd love to see her face when someone explains VAT to her :D
 
From the Guardian on tonights by-election:

Result in the 2010 general election

Conservatives (Mark Reckless): 49.1% (23,604)
Labour: 28.4% (13,651)
Lib Dems: 16.2% (7,800)
English Democrats: 4.6% (2,182)
Greens: 1.5% (734)


Conservative lead: 21 points
Conservative majority: 9,953


(I’ve taken the percentage figures from Dods parliamentary companion. They are marginally different from the ones in Wikpedia for some reason.)

Byelection polls

Survation for the Mail on Sunday on 4 October
Ukip: 40%
Conservatives: 31%
Labour: 25%
Lib Dems: 2%
Greens: 1%


Ukip lead: 9 points

ComRes on 21 October
Ukip: 43%
Conservatives: 30%
Labour: 21%
Lib Dems: 3%
Greens: 2%


Ukip lead: 13 points

Survation on 28 October
Ukip: 48%
Conservatives: 33%
Labour: 16%
Greens: 1.7%
Lib Dems: 1%


Ukip lead: 15 points

Ashcroft on 10 November
Ukip: 44%
Conservatives: 32%
Labour: 17%
Greens: 4%
Lib Dems: 2%


Ukip lead: 12 points