Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

buchansleftleg said:
Is this strike rate purely down to the effectiveness of air defences or are we in the situation where Russia is just doggedly doing the same thing over and over again?

I'd imagine these shahed drones must be programmed with a route and surely these could be varied? Or are they drones where they need to increase altitude to get a position fix before descending back down to near terrain level?

Or are they just simple point and shoot weapons like the V1 bomb in WW2?
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They follow a preprogramed route guided by commercial GPS sattelite signals and they don't have any way to communicate with ground crews so once they are fired the route or destination can't be changed. Russia is probably trying different routes all the time to find weakneses in Ukraines defense grid.
They are powered by a 40hp two stroke engine which gives them a cruise speed of about 150-200km/h, this low speed makes them pretty easy to target with various AA guns like the Gepard or even older Soviet guns like the ZU-23 equipped with some form of night vision optic. The biggest challenge is that they are able to fly at low altitude so you need to have a lot of guns with a short distance between them to be able to cover all the ground.
Short range missile based systems like Avenger or Crotale for example are also good options to down them with but missiles for those systems come at a higher cost compared to ammunition for the guns so guns should be the perfered option.
Medium ranged systems like NASAMS or IRIS-T are of course more then capable of intercepting them but those should only be used as a last resort since the missiles are only available in limited numbers and very expensive.
 
the hea said:
They follow a preprogramed route guided by commercial GPS sattelite signals and they don't have any way to communicate with ground crews so once they are fired the route or destination can't be changed. Russia is probably trying different routes all the time to find weakneses in Ukraines defense grid.
They are powered by a 40hp two stroke engine which gives them a cruise speed of about 150-200km/h, this low speed makes them pretty easy to target with various AA guns like the Gepard or even older Soviet guns like the ZU-23 equipped with some form of night vision optic. The biggest challenge is that they are able to fly at low altitude so you need to have a lot of guns with a short distance between them to be able to cover all the ground.
Short range missile based systems like Avenger or Crotale for example are also good options to down them with but missiles for those systems come at a higher cost compared to ammunition for the guns so guns should be the perfered option.
Medium ranged systems like NASAMS or IRIS-T are of course more then capable of intercepting them but those should only be used as a last resort since the missiles are only available in limited numbers and very expensive.
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If they use commercial GPS, is there possibly a way to jam that signal or otherwise deny it to them? I guess Russia has their Glonass alternative to GPS... and I imagine Ukraine/US have already looked into possibilities of jamming.
 
MTF said:
If they use commercial GPS, is there possibly a way to jam that signal or otherwise deny it to them? I guess Russia has their Glonass alternative to GPS... and I imagine Ukraine/US have already looked into possibilities of jamming.
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Yes, everything can be jammed. But they will come down somewhere. So whenever possible it's the best solution to shoot them down by stationing a proper AA-gun system somewhere in their expected flight path. And there are more capable AA-guns than electronic warfare systems.
 
MTF said:
If they use commercial GPS, is there possibly a way to jam that signal or otherwise deny it to them? I guess Russia has their Glonass alternative to GPS... and I imagine Ukraine/US have already looked into possibilities of jamming.
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GPS jamming is certinly possible and from my understanding it is one of the most commonly used EW equipments in the war. The problem is that they work both ways, in an area where a jammer is used it will make all GPS guided equipment useless both Ukrainian and Russian and like @stefan92 said they will however land somewhere.
 
Carolina Red said:
You know, the last guys I saw fighting under a flag like that lost too.
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At least the Russians made an interesting crest in the middle of theirs.

As for Mr. Pickle, its short videos like these that probably allow him to make occasional controversial ones questioning the war effort.
 
the hea said:
Reports are saying that around 25 UAVs have attacked Moscow this morning.
You reap what you sow.
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Finally, this should become a daily reoccurrence for the pressure to start building from within to end this war. The regime in Kremlin did a pretty good job disconnecting ordinary russians from the realities of the war allowing them to be indifferent.
 
unchanged_lineup said:
I've seen one account saying that full mobilization is on the way and this could be a standard Putin false flag to justify it.
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That would be a pretty desperate move considering that Russia tried to avoid that by every means. I imagine that could lead to insurgencies within Russia.
 
Zehner said:
That would be a pretty desperate move considering that Russia tried to avoid that by every means. I imagine that could lead to insurgencies within Russia.
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Not to mention putting the economy under even more strain. They've been pretty good at navigating through the sanctions and evading the collapse of their economy that many predicted, but removing half a million men from the workforce could finally break the camels back.
 
unchanged_lineup said:
I've seen one account saying that full mobilization is on the way and this could be a standard Putin false flag to justify it.
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Who will they mobilize now that they already went through middle-aged men (under 50 for privates and NCOs, and under 65 for officers)?

RoyH1 said:
Not to mention putting the economy under even more strain. They've been pretty good at navigating through the sanctions and evading the collapse of their economy that many predicted, but removing half a million men from the workforce could finally break the camels back.
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Considering that remote provinces and ethnic regions already lost so many in the workforce due to selective mobilization, they will inevitably go after Moscovites and Petersburgians.
 
RedDevilQuebecois said:
Who will they mobilize now that they already went through middle-aged men (under 50 for privates and NCOs, and under 65 for officers)?



Considering that remote provinces and ethnic regions already lost so many in the workforce due to selective mobilization, they will inevitably go after Moscovites and Petersburgians.
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You have provided the answer yourself. Several sources agree in that the Russian military conscripts heavily in the provinces and ethnic regions, so now the bourgeois big cities will face the same treatment which is something I'm pretty sure Putin and his cronies didn't want to do.
 
RoyH1 said:
You have provided the answer yourself. Several sources agree in that the Russian military conscripts heavily in the provinces and ethnic regions, so now the bourgeois big cities will face the same treatment which is something I'm pretty sure Putin and his cronies didn't want to do.
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And I thought there were already a solid share of (perhaps lower-class) Moscovites and Petersburgians already joining the ranks.

Beyond the matter of the region of origin of the troops, how many more adult males can the Kremlin hope to mobilize before they resort to enlist women or (may God forbid) teenagers?
 
unchanged_lineup said:
I've seen one account saying that full mobilization is on the way and this could be a standard Putin false flag to justify it.
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The only reason full mobilization hasn’t happened and won’t in the future is well known as they would have nothing to equip and arm them with.
 
Very unusual shape for a drone. That thing sure does not look like it's built to travel long distances at all; it may not even make the distance between Manchester and Liverpool.
 
RedDevilQuebecois said:
Very unusual shape for a drone. That thing sure does not look like it's built to travel long distances at all; it may not even make the distance between Manchester and Liverpool.
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Low aspect ratio wings like that are easier to design, have more space for fuel, and are better for maneuverability if they're hoping to avoid air defences. They don't need these things loitering for hours.
 
Rajma said:
Finally, this should become a daily reoccurrence for the pressure to start building from within to end this war. The regime in Kremlin did a pretty good job disconnecting ordinary russians from the realities of the war allowing them to be indifferent.
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But this strategy comes with the risk of Russian civilian casualties. Image what the images of a school being hit with numerous children killed might do for the western world’s continuous support to the Ukraine. It won’t take much to sway the general public to start pushing for a peace deal.
 
Devil77 said:
But this strategy comes with the risk of Russian civilian casualties. Image what the images of a school being hit with numerous children killed might do for the western world’s continuous support to the Ukraine. It won’t take much to sway the general public to start pushing for a peace deal.
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Yes, collateral damage is always possible with such attacks, but on the strategic level in the west the decisions have already been made at the highest levels, public opinion won’t be able to alter that any time soon, especially after what Ukrainians had to go through. However, the war coming to Russia could very much speed up the end of the war on Ukrainian terms, especially after the successful counteroffensive. Russian internal apparatus’s will collapse on itself, this is just part of the shaping operations and mood setting in Russia before the final straw that brings down the camel.
 
Its not like Ukraine has had a bombing of Dresden monent. However that only emboldened the german populations resolve towards the war effort through propaganda. It seems unfair that Russia itself shouldnt be striked but i think attacks in Russia will only result in more Russians signing up.
 
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the hea said:
Reports are saying that around 25 UAVs have attacked Moscow this morning.
You reap what you sow.
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Emotionally all for this, but logically just cannot see a tactical benefit in doing such.

Have they ascertained who launched these drone attacks?
 
calodo2003 said:
Emotionally all for this, but logically just cannot see a tactical benefit in doing such.

Have they ascertained who launched these drone attacks?
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Logic is very simple, the factual events unfolding from the war are currently not reconciling with Russian TV viewers and the idea is that they will finally begin to see that their SMO is not really going according to the plan as proudly stated daily by their Putin and propaganda. The obvious questions will start to pop up more and more in the society: Why are we lied to? Do we really need this? Did we have drone attacks before the February of last year? Now they’re mostly indifferent and since it’s not impacting their daily lives that much, not many are willing to express their frustrations with this SMO. The consequences of SMO are needed to be felt in order for frustrations to start building up internally.
 
calodo2003 said:
Emotionally all for this, but logically just cannot see a tactical benefit in doing such.

Have they ascertained who launched these drone attacks?
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No clue. Ukraine aren't claiming it, stating its Russian "internal problems".
 
Rajma said:
Logic is very simple, the factual events unfolding from the war are currently not reconciling with Russian TV viewers and the idea is that they will finally begin to see that their SMO is not really going according to the plan as proudly stated daily by their Putin and propaganda. The obvious questions will start to pop up more and more in the society: Why are we lied to? Do we really need this? Did we have drone attacks before the February of last year? Now they’re mostly indifferent and since it’s not impacting their daily lives that much, not many are willing to express their frustrations with this SMO. The consequences of SMO are needed to be felt in order for frustrations to start building up internally.
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The problem here is the potential for backfiring. Rather than questioning the invasion, the population might become more willing to support it instead and stand behind the Russian military.

Obviously I don't know which scenario will play out but if I was Ukraine I'd avoid upsetting the Russian population...
 
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