Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Browsing the CE is such a good experience lately.

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Yep, same here...
 
Bad tea or did he catch a cold by standing too long near a open window?



Would be a bad thing for Putin if he dies (Kadyrov that is) as it could destablize that area since Ramzan was little more than a regional stooge emplaced to keep a lid on separatism.
 
Can you explain to the dozy amongst us who are too tired to research, exactly what that means please
Kadyrov is loyal to Putin and controls Chechnya. Ichkeria is the Chechen Republic that wants independence. It’s an interesting dynamic, many Russian Chechens have died fighting for Russia and if Kadyrov goes maybe there will be another war there.
 
Can you explain to the dozy amongst us who are too tired to research, exactly what that means please

Kadyrov's father switched allegiances in the second Chechen war to support Russia around 2000 (instead of fighting against them). Putin, in his early days in office then made him the President of Chechnya, thereby giving Putin a loyal proxy who would stabilize Chechnya on his behalf and squash any further successionist movements. The older Kadyrov was assassinated in 2004 and Putin subsequently groomed his son Ramzan to replace him, which he has done ever since.

With Ramzan now allegedly in a coma, his death would probably destabilize Putin's grip on that region, which would be doubly bad timing given that most of his resources are tied up in Ukraine, and his own regime at home is growing weaker by the month (the Prigozhin mutiny that sent Putin' scurrying back to St. Petersburg being the most recent example).

That's why a few pundits are suggesting Kadyrov's demise would be bad for Putin.
 
Kadyrov is loyal to Putin and controls Chechnya. Ichkeria is the Chechen Republic that wants independence. It’s an interesting dynamic, many Russian Chechens have died fighting for Russia and if Kadyrov goes maybe there will be another war there.
Kadyrov's father switched allegiances in the second Chechen war to support Russia around 2000 (instead of fighting against them). Putin, in his early days in office then made him the President of Chechnya, thereby giving Putin a loyal proxy who would stabilize Chechnya on his behalf and squash any further successionist movements. The older Kadyrov was assassinated in 2004 and Putin subsequently groomed his son Ramzan to replace him, which he has done ever since.

With Ramzan now allegedly in a coma, his death would probably destabilize Putin's grip on that region, which would be doubly bad timing given that most of his resources are tied up in Ukraine, and his own regime at home is growing weaker by the month (the Prigozhin mutiny that sent Putin' scurrying back to St. Petersburg being the most recent example).

That's why a few pundits are suggesting Kadyrov's demise would be bad for Putin.
Thanks fellas. Is there a realistic chance of an uprising? Or just fanciful talk?
 
“If the war stopped today, it would take Russia between three and five years to restore military might and capabilities to the level they would need to strike the next neighboring country.”

 
Further to the above.



To be honest, I wouldn't get my hopes up. Even if it's true and he is dieing, or so seriously ill that he can't continue to govern chechnya (and that's a big IF, because he'll get the best treatment possible), Putin will prepare for his, maybe even right now and groom the next successor, as he did with with Ramsan Kadyrov.
Last time I read about chechnya, his family held all the positions of power. Maybe an inner fight for succession could weaken their grip on chechnya, but Putin will never allow it. He will simply name a successor in case Ramsan dies and that's it. They won't go to war with Putin, that would mean losing all privileges, wealth and most likely their life. His family live like kings in chechnya, Putin bought their loyalty and I think he has nothing to fear, even if Ramsan dies.
 
Looks like the southern offensive has stalled, barely any movement in the last week.

Was hoping for more, the Tokmak front was the one area with significant progress, but good news is hard to come by these days.

If they don't get much further in the next month, mud season arrives, and then Russia have time to build new fortifications and minefields, sigh....
 
Looks like the southern offensive has stalled, barely any movement in the last week.

Was hoping for more, the Tokmak front was the one area with significant progress, but good news is hard to come by these days.

If they don't get much further in the next month, mud season arrives, and then Russia have time to build new fortifications and minefields, sigh....

I think their progress is constant, though slow. All these liberating news stories kind of excite people, but if you look at the map, those are just small areas, and they have been in that area fighting for weeks. And they will keep doing it for another small area, village, etc. after that, and the news will show that.

It is hard to be truly excited for them until they get to some big cities like Tokmak, for obvious reasons.

For the mud season, I hope UKR is preparing the massive obstacle buildings in the NE as well. With rumors of another massive mobilization in Russia, that front may be vulnerable to them.
 
Looks like the southern offensive has stalled, barely any movement in the last week.

Was hoping for more, the Tokmak front was the one area with significant progress, but good news is hard to come by these days.

If they don't get much further in the next month, mud season arrives, and then Russia have time to build new fortifications and minefields, sigh....

Russia has thrown literally everything they have available to defend that front. I take it as a positive the fact Ukraine has been able to hold this bulge, exposed as they are, despite Russia's attempts to flank and counter.
 

When we talk about stalled offensives, tactics, what must be done and so on, it's easy to forget about the people on the ground, who walk through hell each day.
 
Russian television is slowly preparing its people for NK slaves workers (for more than are already there). Kim gets rich, Putin gets labor and weapons. A win-win situation for them, just not for the slaves workers.
 
Russian television is slowly preparing its people for NK slaves workers (for more than are already there). Kim gets rich, Putin gets labor and weapons. A win-win situation for them, just not for the slaves workers.

Allow me to cynically ask: Isn't it possible, that their working and living conditions might be better in Russia then in NK, and therefore even the workers profit?
 
Allow me to cynically ask: Isn't it possible, that their working and living conditions might be better in Russia then in NK, and therefore even the workers profit?

I'll be surprised if Kim allows common workers to leave NK and see what the rest of the world looks like. His control is based on everybody there thinking NK is the best country on earth.
 
I'll be surprised if Kim allows common workers to leave NK and see what the rest of the world looks like. His control is based on everybody there thinking NK is the best country on earth.
They've been sending them for years now, so it's not really a new thing. And they're still pretty isolated in their labor camps abroad.

 
I'll be surprised if Kim allows common workers to leave NK and see what the rest of the world looks like. His control is based on everybody there thinking NK is the best country on earth.
It gives him a lot of money and can be used for propaganda purposes too. Not sure if other countries had that happen, but it was reported a few years ago that there were companies in Poland employing North Korean workers.
 
Allow me to cynically ask: Isn't it possible, that their working and living conditions might be better in Russia then in NK, and therefore even the workers profit?

I don't think their condition will improve. They will feed them exactly the amount they need to work and they most certainly won't live in human conditions, because every ruble spent on them would mean less profit for Kim and Putin. I know they experience it already in NK, but they live at home with their families at the very least. Here, they will experience the same miserable life, just in a foreign country.
 
They've been sending them for years now, so it's not really a new thing. And they're still pretty isolated in their labor camps abroad.



Had no idea. I suppose it's from one labour camp to another.
 
Let's hope for a last goodbye, although I still doubt his illness is life threatening. (Yes, I know he uploaded a video recently walking in the rain, but who knows when it was filmed.)
 
I'm sure the armchair Caf experts will shut down a retired US Army Colonel with actual combat experience and a Bronze Star medal... but even if 50% of what he says is true, this is alarming:


It is Tucker Carlson so everything he says should be taken with a pitch of salt. Actually no, everything he says should be taken as the total opposite.

You can always find the crazy/corrupted high-ranking officer to speak your propaganda. Remember, Flynn had 3 stars. The US has a shitload of high-ranking officers. I think there are around 900 active generals/admirals, and probably as many retired. Colonel is below the 1-star general so probably are thousands of them. Finding one who speaks Russian propaganda is hardly a problem.
 


Don't think those change a lot to be fair.
Would assume that ukrainians going head on into cities is the last thing they would want to do, with attrition due to urban combat being a factor, and the fact, that there are only ruins left after.
I reckon the other heavily fortified settlement - Ocheratuvate would be next main target, then push south into small settlements there and try to get the road leading into Tokmak under drone/short range arty range and make russian life untenable, kind of make it like Kherson.
 
It is Tucker Carlson so everything he says should be taken with a pitch of salt. Actually no, everything he says should be taken as the total opposite.

You can always find the crazy/corrupted high-ranking officer to speak your propaganda. Remember, Flynn had 3 stars. The US has a shitload of high-ranking officers. I think there are around 900 active generals/admirals, and probably as many retired. Colonel is below the 1-star general so probably are thousands of them. Finding one who speaks Russian propaganda is hardly a problem.

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/national-security-daily/2023/08/18/milley-had-a-point-00111878