Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[HTG]

You cannot possibly quote the numbers of military personnel without mentioning that Ukraine is one of the largest countries in Europe stuck in a literal existential fight for their existence and sovereignty. If Britain, Germany, France, Spain and Italy were threatened ww2 style in this era the numbers would skyrocket.

Exactly. The size of an army in peace times isn’t that meaningful. If war were to come, that’s quickly changed. As we have seen with Ukraine.
I mean Germany alone once send 3 million men to Russia. And our population was actually smaller then than it is now.

 

[B. Munich]

Can’t tell if Lineker was being sarcastic when he described our habit of beating lower division teams in the cup as impressive…

Considering their birth rates they need a massive influx of immigrants

That's definitely true. It's known that Russia are deporting thousands and thousands of Ukrainians from the occupied provinces.

Stalin wasn’t even able to create meaningful and lasting settlements in Siberia by force. The land must be habitable. Huge parts of Russia aren’t or barely are. Ukraine on the other hand is. And it’s incredibly fertile.

Siberia might not be suitable for settlements but it still has vast natural resources. It's the foundation for Russia's GDP as they don't have any meaningful modern industries.
Russia got around 143 million people and over 22 million square kilometers of land. Even if only 30% would be inhabitable, it's more than enough. I doubt Russia needs more agriculture.

I am referring to military victories that often comes with land. The typical Russian can't care less of his standard of living. What they care about is that he lives in a country that can terrify the crap off its neighbors. That notion needs to be tested to be proven true which is exactly what the Russians had been doing since the Czars

Not that sure. In November and December I have been Thailand and the place is full with Russians. They are by far the biggest group of Farangs (white guys).
First they must have money to afford an extended holiday. Therefore, there are plenty of Russians who have a lot to lose of this war escalates further.

I also didn't have the impression that these Russians were particularly fond of Putin's murderous war in the Ukraine. They rather enjoy their holiday and life instead of fighting for a megalomaniacal dictator.
That's just my impression of course

 

[devilish]

You cannot possibly quote the numbers of military personnel without mentioning that Ukraine is one of the largest countries in Europe stuck in a literal existential fight for their existence and sovereignty. If Britain, Germany, France, Spain and Italy were threatened ww2 style in this era the numbers would skyrocket.

Its army was nearly 292k in 2016 which is around to what Poland has currently. Turkey's army is 809k.

My point is not that of denigrating anyone but to show that war defense against Russia require a gargantuan in terms of human resources and finances, something no individual European country can do without conscription and huge financial sacrifices. Which is why we need to get our crap sorted and pool all our efforts together. Its ridiculous and equally dangerous that one of the richest continents in the world require the protection of a country outside of that continent.

 

[devilish]

That's definitely true. It's known that Russia are deporting thousands and thousands of Ukrainians from the occupied provinces.


Siberia might not be suitable for settlements but it still has vast natural resources. It's the foundation for Russia's GDP as they don't have any meaningful modern industries.
Russia got around 143 million people and over 22 million square kilometers of land. Even if only 30% would be inhabitable, it's more than enough. I doubt Russia needs more agriculture.


Not that sure. In November and December I have been Thailand and the place is full with Russians. They are by far the biggest group of Farangs (white guys).
First they must have money to afford an extended holiday. Therefore, there are plenty of Russians who have a lot to lose of this war escalates further.

I also didn't have the impression that these Russians were particularly fond of Putin's murderous war in the Ukraine. They rather enjoy their holiday and life instead of fighting for a megalomaniacal dictator.
That's just my impression of course

Those are the exiles ie those who fled the country. I assure you its a minority. As geopolitical expert Dario Fabbri likes to say, no regime is able to stay for long without the consensus of the majority of its people. Its also naive to believe that people of different cultures and countries share our same perspective of the world. What's crucial to us might be irrelevant to others and viceversa.

 

[Gehrman]

Its army was nearly 292k in 2016 which is around to what Poland has currently. Turkey's army is 809k.

My point is not that of denigrating anyone but to show that war defense against Russia require a gargantuan in terms of human resources and finances, something no individual European country can do without conscription and huge financial sacrifices. Which is why we need to get our crap sorted and pool all our efforts together. Its ridiculous and equally dangerous that one of the richest continents in the world require the protection of a country outside of that continent.

Ukraine has been preparing for this since Crimea in 2014. Your point lacks context.

 

[devilish]

Ukraine has been preparing for this since Crimea in 2014. Your point lacks context.

In 2013 it was 121.5k

 

[B. Munich]

Those are the exiles ie those who fled the country. I assure you its a minority.

That's what many of friends back in Germany say also.
I actually doubt it. Living in Thailand, especially in the tourist hotspots like Phuket or Pattaya isn't cheap anymore.

I don't believe Russians who fled the country actually have this kind of money to live here.
The Russians I saw were families often with kids. They were typical tourists and did the typical tourist stuff. A family of 4 will easily spend 5k to 6k Euro in a month here, not counting the cost of the flights.
These aren't poor refugees who tried to escape the war.

 

[harms]

Do you have any leak, info about the real reason(s) why Zaluzhny was dismissed? It looks to me like Zelenskiy shot himself a missile in the foot.

I'm not @demetre but from what I've read the most realistic scenario seems to be that Zelenskiy felt threatened by Zaluzhny's political potential. The lack of success of the counter-offensive didn't seem to affect public's perception of the army (and Zaluzhny) as they're rightly seen as heroes who give their all to defend their country. But it did affect Zelenskiy's own rating. Here's a survey that says that the army's (and, by proxy, Zaluzhny's) approval rating is between 93 to 95 % (depending on the region) and Zelenskiy's is 75-76%, which is still a lot but it's way less than it was at the beginning of the invasion.

Plus, there were always rumours that the two didn't get along very well — Zaluzhny did a lot of things his own way, didn't consult the presidential's office before giving big interviews (like the one for The Economist) etc. As the situation on the front is currently in a relative (bloody and horrible) stalemate, Zelenskiy probably decided that if there ever was the time for this move, it was now.

 

[VorZakone]

 

[Gehrman]

That would be putins "hitler invaded russia moment".

 

[VorZakone]

 

[Vitro]

That's what many of friends back in Germany say also.
I actually doubt it. Living in Thailand, especially in the tourist hotspots like Phuket or Pattaya isn't cheap anymore.

I don't believe Russians who fled the country actually have this kind of money to live here.
The Russians I saw were families often with kids. They were typical tourists and did the typical tourist stuff. A family of 4 will easily spend 5k to 6k Euro in a month here, not counting the cost of the flights.
These aren't poor refugees who tried to escape the war.

They’re not refugees but they are the affluent. Russia is a poor and inequitable country and so are the large majority of its citizens, who are not able to leave the country or spend that kind of money. They are likely to be more educated and will have different views on politics.

 

[whitbyviking]

I know someone here in Norway who is part of the armed forces in intelligence and they have been preparing for years for a Russian attack and that timescale was mentioned. He’s not a full time soldier, but is involved in military planning on a regular basis.

 

[whitbyviking]

They’re not refugees but they are the affluent. Russia is a poor and inequitable country and so are the large majority of its citizens, who are not able to leave the country or spend that kind of money. They are likely to be more educated and will have different views on politics.

They are likely to be criminals or high ranking members of Putin’s cabal. A lot of the expensive tourist hotspots are full of Russians who are very clearly criminals or military, generally with obscenely expensive designer gear.

 

[VorZakone]

I know someone here in Norway who is part of the armed forces in intelligence and they have been preparing for years for a Russian attack and that timescale was mentioned. He’s not a full time soldier, but is involved in military planning on a regular basis.

Preparation is normal, all countries will have plans for different scenarios. Has your acquaintance suggested that they've received new intel that suggests a more serious Russian threat?

 

[the hea]

I know someone here in Norway who is part of the armed forces in intelligence and they have been preparing for years for a Russian attack and that timescale was mentioned. He’s not a full time soldier, but is involved in military planning on a regular basis.

Same is happening in Finland, the Baltic countris and Poland. Everyone bordering Russia is getting ready.

 

[Revan]

Watched the interview. As predicted, Tucker practically gave a blow job to Putin. Not very challenging questions, barely interrupting him when Putin would go on his monologues/rants. A bit of waste of 2 hours.

I think Putin played Tucker very well, knowing that a lot of people who watch Tucker are MAGA crowd who bizarrely are on the side of Russia.

 

[calodo2003]

Oh...

 

[B. Munich]

To me it's an open thread to the Baltic states.
Once Russia will come and ask for a few land passage to Kaliningrad, they better accept this demand or they will follow the same fate as Poland in 1939 who didn't bow to Hitler's demands for the return of the Danziger corridor.

Putin completely lost it and Carlson isn't up intellectually and missing the background knowledge to challenge, dig deeper and expose Putin's weird and confusing thoughts.

 

[calodo2003]

 

[the_cliff]

 

[africanspur]

That's what many of friends back in Germany say also.
I actually doubt it. Living in Thailand, especially in the tourist hotspots like Phuket or Pattaya isn't cheap anymore.

I don't believe Russians who fled the country actually have this kind of money to live here.
The Russians I saw were families often with kids. They were typical tourists and did the typical tourist stuff. A family of 4 will easily spend 5k to 6k Euro in a month here, not counting the cost of the flights.
These aren't poor refugees who tried to escape the war.

Yep. Bit of a weird attempt on this thread to paint basically all Russians as destitute hick peasants.

I still see a lot of Russian families holidaying in Egypt for instance. Quite a few Ukrainian families too.

Its an incredibly unequal country but with a middle class that I imagine is finding it harder to spend their money in Europe as well now. I don't think all these people are just exiles.

 

[whitbyviking]

Preparation is normal, all countries will have plans for different scenarios. Has your acquaintance suggested that they've received new intel that suggests a more serious Russian threat?

He won’t go into detail naturally but they have a heightened view and approach to the threat from Russia. Reading between the lines they’re expecting something.

 

[VorZakone]

I wonder if Ukraine still has Bayraktar drones. Haven't seen a Bayraktar clip in ages.

 

[nimic]

I know someone here in Norway who is part of the armed forces in intelligence and they have been preparing for years for a Russian attack and that timescale was mentioned. He’s not a full time soldier, but is involved in military planning on a regular basis.

I'd be extremely skeptical of those claims, particularly when it comes to reading between the lines. If this was truly something more than just planning for all eventualities (given there is a war on in Europe and we neighbour the aggressor), then it would presumably either be basically public knowledge or else so secret that your friend telling you would be very illegal.

The "not a full time soldier" thing makes me hesitant as well.

 

[the hea]

I wonder if Ukraine still has Bayraktar drones. Haven't seen a Bayraktar clip in ages.

Baykar the company that makes them are building a factory in Ukraine.
https://www.reuters.com/business/ae...baykar-begins-build-plant-ukraine-2024-02-06/

As for the TB2 drones that Ukraine recieved in the early days I'd expect that a lot them will have been destroyed by now and if there are any left they are probably used as surveillance drones further away from the front lines. I think it would be very hard to operate a drone of that size near the fronlines with all the air defence units deployed there.

 

[whitbyviking]

I'd be extremely skeptical of those claims, particularly when it comes to reading between the lines. If this was truly something more than just planning for all eventualities (given there is a war on in Europe and we neighbour the aggressor), then it would presumably either be basically public knowledge or else so secret that your friend telling you would be very illegal.

The "not a full time soldier" thing makes me hesitant as well.

There are very few full time soldiers in Norway, they have a national service model and then they retain some people on a permanent basis but only part time, they join exercises every year and participate in regular activities.

I don’t know the full details but generally speaking the Norwegians don’t bullshit or gossip much and even if it is not a “real” threat they seem to be treating it as one and expecting/preparing for the worst. That was why it is “reading between the lines”, he’s not giving anything away that isn’t public knowledge, huge numbers of national service recruits go to the north where the Russian border is and there is regular news about airspace incursions/spying. The Russians even troll the Norwegians by taking immigrants to the far north and sending them across the border on bikes, google it, it’s not a joke.

If I remember rightly there was even a show on UK TV recently where they interviewed a border guard from the north of Norway and she more or less said Russia were the enemy and she was a “security guard” or some such. It’s just accepted over here. See the comments from the guy about Finland. They don’t trust Russia on historical reasons and they probably never will, when Russia is at war with another neighbour state then it is bound to raise tensions, preparations etc in other neighbour states. They’ll never tell you what they are up to but they don’t have any other enemies in Scandinavia/Finland

 

[whitbyviking]

@nimic

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...ine-war-norway-defence-minister-b2491211.html

 

[nimic]

There are very few full time soldiers in Norway, they have a national service model and then they retain some people on a permanent basis but only part time, they join exercises every year and participate in regular activities.

I don’t know the full details but generally speaking the Norwegians don’t bullshit or gossip much and even if it is not a “real” threat they seem to be treating it as one and expecting/preparing for the worst. That was why it is “reading between the lines”, he’s not giving anything away that isn’t public knowledge, huge numbers of national service recruits go to the north where the Russian border is and there is regular news about airspace incursions/spying. The Russians even troll the Norwegians by taking immigrants to the far north and sending them across the border on bikes, google it, it’s not a joke.

If I remember rightly there was even a show on UK TV recently where they interviewed a border guard from the north of Norway and she more or less said Russia were the enemy and she was a “security guard” or some such. It’s just accepted over here. See the comments from the guy about Finland. They don’t trust Russia on historical reasons and they probably never will, when Russia is at war with another neighbour state then it is bound to raise tensions, preparations etc in other neighbour states. They’ll never tell you what they are up to but they don’t have any other enemies in Scandinavia/Finland

@nimic

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...ine-war-norway-defence-minister-b2491211.html

I'm Norwegian myself, so I'm aware of this. I wasn't trying to make the point that Norway isn't worried about Russia, just that "we need to increase defense spending to be ready for an aggressive Russia" isn't really some military secret, it's official state policy.

The "enemy" thing is definitely true now, though it's worth pointing out that up until the Ukraine war Norway had a very reasonable working relationship with Russia, particularly in (and because of) the far north. That said, even with that the majority of military activity in Norway has been in the north since the cold war started - for the reasons you state.

 

[whitbyviking]

I'm Norwegian myself, so I'm aware of this. I wasn't trying to make the point that Norway isn't worried about Russia, just that "we need to increase defense spending to be ready for an aggressive Russia" isn't really some military secret, it's official state policy.

The "enemy" thing is definitely true now, though it's worth pointing out that up until the Ukraine war Norway had a very reasonable working relationship with Russia, particularly in (and because of) the far north. That said, even with that the majority of military activity in Norway has been in the north since the cold war started - for the reasons you state.

Never knew you were Norwegian, apologies for the unnecessary explanation

I’m not claiming secret knowledge so if that is what came across I’ll just confirm I’m not now, I was curious how Norway would wage a war on Russia, which is what I was trying to get out of him. The only thing he was willing to discuss were the obvious things that Norway wouldn’t compete in an old school feet on the ground so are looking at modern, digital warfare. Again not a classified secret I’d expect. He didn’t seem to have much respect for Russian military officers and their methods of waging war. Other than that I just got the impression he was suggesting things were being escalated by Norway, not sure if there is a war/invasion threat equivalent of the UK’s terror threat type thing.

As for the working relationship it’s an interesting point actually, I haven’t had much to do with Russian companies but in my limited interactions there were special measures put in place. Our Russian entity took a rig directly from us and that was a nightmare, also when they wanted to buy equipment from us. The requirements for releasing to them and what documents we could send/receive went through a huge amount of legal check and scrutiny. Seems there was an open working relationship but it was subject to far more secrecy than even communication between companies and people during exploration well drilling, which is unusual.

 

[VeevaVee]

knowing that a lot of people who watch Tucker are MAGA crowd who bizarrely are on the side of Russia.

It's insane. They claim to be these big patriots, yet side with their country's arch enemy, and have no issue with their cult leader being in bed with them.

 

[utdalltheway]

They’re always the opposite of what they claim. And 70m+ Americans are too stupid to realize it.
I figure 4m or so know it but it suits their purposes.
The GOP has done a great job on Americans; convincing them that only they have their best interests at heart.

 

[stefan92]

Baykar the company that makes them are building a factory in Ukraine.
https://www.reuters.com/business/ae...baykar-begins-build-plant-ukraine-2024-02-06/

As for the TB2 drones that Ukraine recieved in the early days I'd expect that a lot them will have been destroyed by now and if there are any left they are probably used as surveillance drones further away from the front lines. I think it would be very hard to operate a drone of that size near the fronlines with all the air defence units deployed there.

Technically it should have been impossible to operate the TB2 near the frontline from day one. The only way it was possible is because it is so low performing, that it is filtered out by the usual settings of air surveillance radars - too small, too slow to be recognized as an airplane. Russia had to learn that lesson the hard way, but then it comes down to reconfiguring your radar and coaching the operators on this topic.

 

[VorZakone]

 

[the hea]

Technically it should have been impossible to operate the TB2 near the frontline from day one. The only way it was possible is because it is so low performing, that it is filtered out by the usual settings of air surveillance radars - too small, too slow to be recognized as an airplane. Russia had to learn that lesson the hard way, but then it comes down to reconfiguring your radar and coaching the operators on this topic.

It's possible that Russian radars filtered out the TB2 echoes as clutter but the high levels of disorganization among the russian troops during the first months might also have been a big factor.
Setting up effective and overlapping air surveillance zones around an advancing force is no easy task.

 

[stefan92]

It's possible that Russian radars filtered out the TB2 echoes as clutter but the high levels of disorganization among the russian troops during the first months might also have been a big factor.
Setting up effective and overlapping air surveillance zones around an advancing force is no easy task.

True, but we saw a lot of videos were TB2s attacked active air defense system. This is the kind of attack that should never have been possible (but luckily were)

 

[VorZakone]

 

[That_Bloke]

No leaks, only opinions. Everyone convinced it's a political decision, because Syrskiy is more loyal to Zelenskiy and his crew.

Zaluzhny has massive support from both soldiers and the regular folk. To fire him right now, when morale in Ukrainian society is so low is crazy.

I'm not @demetre but from what I've read the most realistic scenario seems to be that Zelenskiy felt threatened by Zaluzhny's political potential. The lack of success of the counter-offensive didn't seem to affect public's perception of the army (and Zaluzhny) as they're rightly seen as heroes who give their all to defend their country. But it did affect Zelenskiy's own rating. Here's a survey that says that the army's (and, by proxy, Zaluzhny's) approval rating is between 93 to 95 % (depending on the region) and Zelenskiy's is 75-76%, which is still a lot but it's way less than it was at the beginning of the invasion.

Plus, there were always rumours that the two didn't get along very well — Zaluzhny did a lot of things his own way, didn't consult the presidential's office before giving big interviews (like the one for The Economist) etc. As the situation on the front is currently in a relative (bloody and horrible) stalemate, Zelenskiy probably decided that if there ever was the time for this move, it was now.

Thanks a lot, both of you.

 

[That_Bloke]

Oh...

Yeah, straight up BS and there's more in these two hours.

Still the boogeyman's view is something we need to hear. A shame that it was an utter idiot like Carlson interviewing him, it's going to gain a lot of traction in the MAGA cult.

Piers Morgan would've been so much better.

 

[Simbo]

Would be interested to see the data behind that. Of course any business will sell to anyone, unless it risks repercussions, but what exports to Belarus are not sanctioned?