Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

WI_Red said:
If any German sees "they're being mean" as a valid excuse to question aid for Ukraine they were never serious about it to begin with.
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Right, some think it is wrong to get into conflict with Russia over Ukraine at all. Those people won't be convinced by the way Ukraine acts towards Germany, on the contrary.
 
stefan92 said:
Actually this is Ukraine's fault alone. Yes, they see Steinmeier as responsible for the close German-Russian relationship, but saying he isn't wanted in the country was a huge blunder. Invite him, maybe on the condition that he repeats in Kiyv what he has already said (that he sees that policy asa mistake now).
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Why would Zelenksyy prioritise meeting the German President? He's not the country's political leader and the German Chancellor is the equivalent figure. I'm struggling to understand why Germany is proposing their (ceremonial) President is the one to visit.
 
stefan92 said:
Right, some think it is wrong to get into conflict with Russia over Ukraine at all. Those people won't be convinced by the way Ukraine acts towards Germany, on the contrary.
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We all have idiots in our countries (we have Tucker Carlson and all of Fox News ffs). It gets scary when those idiots wield enough political power to effect change.
 
TMDaines said:
Why would Zelenksyy prioritise meeting the German President? He's not the country's political leader and the German Chancellor is the equivalent figure. I'm struggling to understand why Germany is proposing their (ceremonial) President is the one to visit.
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While his power is limited he is still the head of the state and therefore our highest representative. He is supposed to speak for all Germans and to be independent from political parties during his reign, while the chancellor is just speaking for the government.

Yes, Scholz would be the one who does lead the government, but insulting the president in this way is seen as insulting the whole German people by many. It's a ceremonial thing in a way.
 
WI_Red said:
We all have idiots in our countries (we have Tucker Carlson and all of Fox News ffs). It gets scary when those idiots wield enough political power to effect change.
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Looking at the last 30 years Russia was a reliably partner for Germany, while Ukraine was a corrupt bastard threatening to steal our gas from the pipelines (this is why Nord Stream exists).

We surely are shifting allegiance slower than we should, but you should consider this when you judge German politicians on this topic. It is a much different starting point compared to the US, where Russia essentially always was the rival and no one cared for Ukraine.

This kind of political attacks just slows that process down even more. I'm absolutely not happy about this, but this is how I see the situation.
 
GlastonSpur said:
Russia suffering ‘extremely high’ losses in Ukraine, say Western officials:

"... They did not put a figure on the death toll among Russian troops, but Ukrainian military chiefs claim it is nearly 20,000, though this may well be an exaggeration.

The number of injured and incapacitated Russian soldiers is estimated to be three or four times as high as the death toll ..."

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/wor...s-war-invasion-western-officials-b993779.html
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The utterly horrific part of this is that the Russians are apparently using mobile crematoriums to incinerate their own war dead without offering any information to their families back in Russia. They are probably doing the same to Ukrainians murdered to cover up their crimes.
 
stefan92 said:
While his power is limited he is still the head of the state and therefore our highest representative. He is supposed to speak for all Germans and to be independent from political parties during his reign, while the chancellor is just speaking for the government.

Yes, Scholz would be the one who does lead the government, but insulting the president in this way is seen as insulting the whole German people by many. It's a ceremonial thing in a way.
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I guess it gets quite messy who meets with whom, because the Head of Government and Head of State of one country doesn't neatly map to the respective roles of another. For all intents and purposes, the world recognises the German Chancellor as the de facto "leader" of their country. For example, the four Presidents who have visited Ukraine today from Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland are all from parliamentary republics or semi-presidential systems. Only the Lithuanian President could be described as the de facto leader of their country. They have all only met with the Ukrainian Prime Minister, Denys Shmyhal, as a far as I am aware before touring some towns, although are supposed to be visiting Zelenskyy at some point.

I don't really understand why Germany isn't sending the Chancellor. If you want time with the Ukrainian President, you send your equivalent in seniority, not the secondary guy or ceremonial president. The UK sent their PM; Austria sent their Chancellor; the EU sent their President of the Commission; the Czech Republic, Slovenia and Slovakia all sent their PMs previously.
 
TMDaines said:
I guess it gets quite messy who meets with whom, because the Head of Government and Head of State of one country doesn't neatly map to the respective roles of another. For all intents and purposes, the world recognises the German Chancellor as the de facto "leader" of their country. For example, the four Presidents who have visited Ukraine today from Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland are all from parliamentary republics or semi-presidential systems. Only the Lithuanian President could be described as the de facto leader of their country. They have all only met with the Ukrainian Prime Minister, Denys Shmyhal, as a far as I am aware before touring some towns, although are supposed to be visiting Zelenskyy at some point.

I don't really understand why Germany isn't sending the Chancellor. If you want time with the Ukrainian President, you send your equivalent in seniority, not the secondary guy.
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It appears like Steinmeier would have been part of that Baltic group today. It isn't about meeting Zelensky, it is about not being welcome in Ukraine.

No one has an issue when meetings happen on an equivalent level, as there also is a meeting of members of German and Ukrainian parliaments these days, which is no issue for example.
 
stefan92 said:
Looking at the last 30 years Russia was a reliably partner for Germany, while Ukraine was a corrupt bastard threatening to steal our gas from the pipelines (this is why Nord Stream exists).

We surely are shifting allegiance slower than we should, but you should consider this when you judge German politicians on this topic. It is a much different starting point compared to the US, where Russia essentially always was the rival and no one cared for Ukraine.

This kind of political attacks just slows that process down even more. I'm absolutely not happy about this, but this is how I see the situation.
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I don't think you even need to take such a wide scope. I think it's as simple as asking: why would you try to so bluntly offend a country whose help you want/need?
Steinmeier already admitted mistakes regarding Russia policy, they probably could have used his visit to appeal to stress Germany's share of the responsibility for this war. Instead the talk is about diplomatic manners and the people who are pro Russian or "just" against far reaching committments towards Ukraine have gotten some free talking points.
 
stefan92 said:
Looking at the last 30 years Russia was a reliably partner for Germany, while Ukraine was a corrupt bastard threatening to steal our gas from the pipelines (this is why Nord Stream exists).

We surely are shifting allegiance slower than we should, but you should consider this when you judge German politicians on this topic. It is a much different starting point compared to the US, where Russia essentially always was the rival and no one cared for Ukraine.

This kind of political attacks just slows that process down even more. I'm absolutely not happy about this, but this is how I see the situation.
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It looks like Germany has been living in a fool’s paradise - on the one hand, wanting a special energy relationship with Russia while, on the other, being reliant on the US when it comes to military security. If you want to stick two fingers up at the Americans (as the French sometimes like to do), you at least need some credible military muscle to back it up. It seems that things are finally changing on both fronts but maybe not quick enough to save Ukraine from being carved up.
 
stefan92 said:
It appears like Steinmeier would have been part of that Baltic group today. It isn't about meeting Zelensky, it is about not being welcome in Ukraine.

No one has an issue when meetings happen on an equivalent level, as there also is a meeting of members of German and Ukrainian parliaments these days, which is no issue for example.
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News reports were that Zelenskyy rejected a meeting with Steinmeier, not that that Steinmeier was persona non grata to enter Ukraine, but who knows? Again, not sure why Germany is pushing Steinmeier forward to visit, instead of the German Chancellor.
 
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MoskvaRed said:
It looks like Germany has been living in a fool’s paradise - on the one hand, wanting a special energy relationship with Russia while, on the other, being reliant on the US when it comes to military security. If you want to stick two fingers up at the Americans (as the French sometimes like to do), you at least need some credible military muscle to back it up. It seems that things are finally changing on both fronts but maybe not quick enough to save Ukraine from being carved up.
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Spot bloody on.
 
Raoul said:
The utterly horrific part of this is that the Russians are apparently using mobile crematoriums to incinerate their own war dead without offering any information to their families back in Russia. They are probably doing the same to Ukrainians murdered to cover up their crimes.
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The mayor of some city (I don't recall which) has recently said that they have more than 1,000 dead Russians in refrigerator storage waiting for Russian families to claim them.

They may have a long wait, since Putin's regime is unlikely even to inform the families concerned that these soldiers are missing, let alone dead.
 
TMDaines said:
News reports were that Zelenskyy rejected a meeting with Steinmeier, not that that Steinmeier was persona non grata to enter Ukraine, but who knows? Again, not sure why Germany is pushing Steinmeier forward to visit, instead of the German Chancellor.
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It is a bit conflicting, but as far as I gathered:
- Polish president Duda proposed a group visit of the Polish, Baltic and German presidents to Kiyv
- They all meet in Warsaw
- Zelensky informs the group that Steinmeier isn't welcome in Ukraine
- if the group didn't meet Zelensky today, this is proof that Zelensky did not reject a meeting with Steinmeier personally, as he also didn't meet the others. Still only Steinmeier didn't make the trip, so he clearly is a persona non gratis in Ukraine.

Doing that to the president of a country you are at the same time begging to gift weapons etc is unheard of I think.

Edit: I think this will also lead to a situation that no high ranking politician from Germany will travel to Ukraine soon. It would be too big of a protocol issue if for example the chancellor is preferred over the president. This situation does severe damage to our diplomatic relations and Ukraine needs to work on fixing these if they want Germany as an ally.
 
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MoskvaRed said:
It looks like Germany has been living in a fool’s paradise - on the one hand, wanting a special energy relationship with Russia while, on the other, being reliant on the US when it comes to military security. If you want to stick two fingers up at the Americans (as the French sometimes like to do), you at least need some credible military muscle to back it up. It seems that things are finally changing on both fronts but maybe not quick enough to save Ukraine from being carved up.
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Do you honestly believe that would have changed anything about Russia's invasion of Ukraine? The media make a huge deal out of the energy imports but all of russian exports to Germany combined (loads of wheat and metals in there too) is less than 2% of the russian economy and thats before you subtract the amount spent on importing stuff from Germany again (which is roughly 75% of the value of all the exports).
 
stefan92 said:
It is a bit conflicting, but as far as I gathered:
- Polish president Duda proposed a group visit of the Polish, Baltic and German presidents to Kiyv
- They all meet in Warsaw
- Zelensky informs the group that Steinmeier isn't welcome in Ukraine
- if the group didn't meet Zelensky today, this is proof that Zelensky did not reject a meeting with Steinmeier personally, as he also didn't meet the others. Still only Steinmeier didn't make the trip, so he clearly is a persona non gratis in Ukraine.

Doing that to the president of a country you are at the same time begging to gift weapons etc is unheard of I think.
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It's a bit unclear whether Steinmeier was barred from entry, or was snubbed to a degree and then chose not to go himself once he understood that Zelenskyy wouldn't be excited to meet with him.

Deutsche Welle said:
Steinmeier had planned to visit the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, alongside the heads of state of Poland and the Baltic republics of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia.

However, the Ukrainian leadership rejected those plans. While this was ostensibly because of Steinmeier's past fostering of detente with Russia, Ukraine has also made clear that it expects a visit from German Chancellor Olaf Scholz rather than from the president, whose role is largely ceremonial.

https://www.dw.com/en/ukraines-steinmeier-snub-ruffles-german-feathers/a-61459870
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Just to make clear: if I were the Ukrainian leadership, I personally wouldn't have rejected a visit by the German President out right (which I am still not clear they necessarily did), but nor would I have rolled out the red carpet and offered one-on-one time with the Ukrainian President. The German President would have been more than welcome to go with other ceremonial presidents for PR purposes though. If Germany is serious about working with Ukraine, then they should send their leader and chief decision maker.
 
TMDaines said:
Just to make clear: if I were the Ukrainian leadership, I personally wouldn't have rejected a visit by the German President out right (which I am still not clear they necessarily did), but nor would I have rolled out the red carpet and offered one-on-one time with the Ukrainian President. The German President would have been more than welcome to go with other ceremonial presidents for PR purposes though. If Germany is serious about working with Ukraine, then they should send their leader and chief decision maker.
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I fully agree with this, this would have been the right approach and I think everyone in Germany including our president would have understood such a schedule.

Regarding our chancellor... Yeah well, we had three bad candidates to become chancellor in the last election, Scholz essentially won by doing nothing while Baerbock (now foreign minister) and Laschet made mistakes. It sadly is his style and expecting leadership from him might be futile.
 
Abizzz said:
Do you honestly believe that would have changed anything about Russia's invasion of Ukraine? The media make a huge deal out of the energy imports but all of russian exports to Germany combined (loads of wheat and metals in there too) is less than 2% of the russian economy and thats before you subtract the amount spent on importing stuff from Germany again (which is roughly 75% of the value of all the exports).
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It’s had an impact over the last 15-20 years in that Europe’s largest economy has been at the forefront of pushing a “softly, softly” approach towards Putin.

As for the present, stopping oil and gas purchases might not stop the Russian war machine directly but it would send an incredibly powerful message that Europe is prepared to see this one through, even if it means taking an economic hit.
 
GlastonSpur said:
The mayor of some city (I don't recall which) has recently said that they have more than 1,000 dead Russians in refrigerator storage waiting for Russian families to claim them.

They may have a long wait, since Putin's regime is unlikely even to inform the families concerned that these soldiers are missing, let alone dead.
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I think that is the whole of Ukraine, not just a city.
 
The BBC reports:

"Ukraine continues to deny Russian reports of more than 1,000 marines surrendering in the strategic, besieged port city of Mariupol.

Speaking to the BBC, Petro Andriuschenko, an adviser to the mayor of Mariupol, has dismissed Russia's statements as "impossible".

He says Ukraine still holds several areas of the city.

"They don't control our harbour, they don't control Azovstal [iron and steel works]," Andriuschenko says.

Russian forces were also not controlling half of the eastern district of Livoberezhnyi, the biggest part of Prymorskyi in the north or half of the city's central district.

The BBC cannot currently verify his comments as the full picture of what is going on in the city is still unclear."
 
GlastonSpur said:
" Nato decision within weeks, not months - Finnish PM" - the BBC reports:

"Finland will make a decision within weeks on whether to join Nato, its prime minister has confirmed.

Sanna Marin was speaking at a joint news conference in Stockholm with her Swedish counterpart, Magdalena Andersson.

Previously, most Finns had not wanted to join Nato, but latest polls have suggested a change in opinion.

Sweden is also considering signing up to the 30-member Western military alliance.

Russia has warned both countries against the idea, arguing that it would not bring stability to Europe.

Moscow said it launched its invasion in part to try and deter Ukraine from joining the alliance."
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NATO nukes 50 miles from St. Petersburg then. Nice.

Well played Vlad.
 
nimic said:
Where are the closest now? Germany? Poland? Not too far away to begin with, to be fair.
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I'd add even further that unless Russia has radars capable of detecting B-2 bombers (which they might have), we might as well consider that they're already in Moscow.
 
Raoul said:
NATO nukes 50 miles from St. Petersburg then. Nice.

Well played Vlad.
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That's different to NATO membership. Members don't automatically get American nukes. That's part of the Nuclear Sharing Agreement. Only Belgium, Netherlands, Germany, Italy & Turkey have US nukes.

Members are not obliged to have nukes, nor is the US obliged to provide them.
 
MadMike said:
That's different to NATO membership. Members don't automatically get American nukes. That's part of the Nuclear Sharing Agreement. Only Belgium, Netherlands, Germany, Italy & Turkey have US nukes.

Members are not obliged to have nukes, nor is the US obliged to provide them.
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I understand for Germany, Italy and Turkey because they were historically at the front lines of the Cold War, but why Belgium and the Netherlands?
 
nimic said:
Where are the closest now? Germany? Poland? Not too far away to begin with, to be fair.
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Baltic states? Although I’m not sure if NATO deploys nukes there, probably not.
 
harms said:
Baltic states? Although I’m not sure if NATO deploys nukes there, probably not.
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As posted above, it is definitely Germany and Turkey when we are talking about those that can be used by airplanes, as only some countries have a nuclear sharing agreement with the USA (which is additionally to the NATO treaty and not part of it). However you never know where the submarines are cruising that carry missiles with nuclear warheads (USA, France, UK are operating those as NATO members). Quite possible that some of them are quite close to Russian waters at the moment.
 
stefan92 said:
Actually this is Ukraine's fault alone. Yes, they see Steinmeier as responsible for the close German-Russian relationship, but saying he isn't wanted in the country was a huge blunder. Invite him, maybe on the condition that he repeats in Kiyv what he has already said (that he sees that policy asa mistake now).

They should have used the opportunity to really make a point of Germany changing allegiances.

Instead they acted in line to their ambassador to Germany who single-handedly causes a lot of Germans to say "yes we should help them, despite their (un)diplomatic behaviour" and some even to outright say that we shouldn't give those ungrateful greedy bastards anything.

Diplomacy isn't Ukraine's strength, at least when dealing with Germany. Understandable due to our Russia relations, but nonetheless it isn't really motivating Germany to help.

Honestly I would be perfectly fine if we loaded a train with tanks for Ukraine and just put their ambassador into it to get rid of him.
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The situation is the same here in Hungary as well. God knows how many refugees have arrived in the country and a lot of humanitarian aid was sent across the border. However, one of their leading politicians accused us of wanting to get Transcarpathia. The feeling in the past has been bitter towards each other and it just echoes the previous feeling.
 
rhajdu said:
The situation is the same here in Hungary as well. God knows how many refugees have arrived in the country and a lot of humanitarian aid was sent across the border. However, one of their leading politicians accused us of wanting to get Transcarpathia. The feeling in the past has been bitter towards each other and it just echoes the previous feeling.
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It's just sad that Ukraine's politicians absolutely aren't on the level of their military.
 
stefan92 said:
While his power is limited he is still the head of the state and therefore our highest representative. He is supposed to speak for all Germans and to be independent from political parties during his reign, while the chancellor is just speaking for the government.

Yes, Scholz would be the one who does lead the government, but insulting the president in this way is seen as insulting the whole German people by many. It's a ceremonial thing in a way.
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Where Zelensky insulted Scholz?
 
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