Thanks, hadn’t seen that. It almost sounds a little comical though. Like something that would work in a cartoon or straight-to-DVD action movie.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
Thanks, hadn’t seen that. It almost sounds a little comical though. Like something that would work in a cartoon or straight-to-DVD action movie.
To be fair, that seems to be a solid summary of Russian efforts so far
Harsh but true
It seems like the tracking radar of the Moskva's air defence just has a 180° field of view. Distracting it with a drone means that the missiles could only be spotted by their weaker general surveillance radar, which was quite difficult due to how low the Neptune flies and how rough the sea was.
Its beyond incompetent for a 21st century navy. Multiple target tracking and and automatic prioritisation has been the norm since the early eighties at least.
That has to be a joke?Harsh but true
It seems like the tracking radar of the Moskva's air defence just has a 180° field of view. Distracting it with a drone means that the missiles could only be spotted by their weaker general surveillance radar, which was quite difficult due to how low the Neptune flies and how rough the sea was.
This thread goes more into depth on how it might have happened, though I can’t vouch for the source and have no detailed knowledge of these systems:
Okay so the best radar is constrained by azimuth (not uncommon if its a targetting radar), the inferior 360 deg radars cannot disginguish a missile from a wave top. I'd venture a guess the DSP development has not been stellar.
It's just going so ridiculously bad for Russia I'm left thinking what if there is an alternative endgame here that doesn't expressly involve Ukraine and it's just the distraction. The west is committing attention, materials and money there. What else are China and Russia doing that we can't see?
That said, the Moskva would be a pretty big sacrifice to make so I'm probably just being an idiot and over thinking things. Wars don't normally go this badly this quickly for an invading force with an overwhelming advantage in men and materials.
Dont look for a conspiracy when incompetence can explain it sufficiently well.
The Russians don't have any more military than this really, they're certainly not in on it if it is a ruse. Incompetence is usually a simpler explanation than a grand conspiracy.
This is your mistake. The troops Russia committed to the invasion aren't that much bigger than what Ukraine has available, especially not now as their reservists are also activated while Russia is officially still not in a war (and this means they can't force their reservists to fight, they still have to rely on people volunteeringly joining). Russia has no numerical advantage, only a huge advantage in heavy weaponry, but this is diminished by their poor tactics. Which are partially caused by the high number of material, as it is simply financially not possible to keep so many big stuff maintained and train all crews properly.
Those have been surprising facts to realize for many (me included) but once you know this it is pretty straightforward what is happening.
Is that a John Deere in front of it?
Edit well I’ll buy any magic beans that are on offer
To be fair that comment is based on the size of their standing army versus Ukraine's. Agree that when we think of the troops sent there versus what Ukraine has it's more of an even match, possibly even in Ukraine's favour when we consider the consequences of the invasion.
Russia's practice of leading from the front and the recent purges of military leadership for their failures in the field aren't helping them, that's for sure. Neither was sending a bunch of recruits to invade a country. Like I said, it's so ridiculously incompetent that it seems impossible, leading me to wonder if something else is afoot.
I still like the theory that Russia actually did not intend to wage war against Ukraine, but that Putin (due to whitewashed intelligence reports) really believed, that Ukraine would simply fall in line and very few people would actually resist.
So yes, I believe in the wording that Russia wanted to conduct a "special military operation", not a war. This became a war because Ukraine being united in their resistance, which came as a shock to the Russians. To me this explains a lot, including the purges of FSB and military leaders.
Another theory I like to add: You made it sound like China/Russia would be close allies. I very much doubt that and wouldn't be surprised if China is quite happy getting rid of Russia as a military power with good connections to the west and might have hoped for such an outcome to get cheap access to Russian resources (as the west doesn't want to deal with them anymore).
Exactly, is a representative of germany, a country that made divert UK flights with help to not fly over germany to not anger putin, a coubtry tgat sebt initially 5k helmets and notjing more. A country that was blocking the ban from swift, a country that keeps dumping money to russia kill ukranians vs the perspective to have economic problems. Germany has de right to look for its own interests but zelenski has the right to sent the message of "what are you waiting for to do the right thing".
Is more insulting what germany (and the EU) is doing financing the ukranian genocide than what zelenski did (by far) the same for other conflicts but zelenski has no tine to worry about uiguirs.
Yes, this is a good point. A Russian version of the Anschluss.
I don't believe they are. Too much historical tension between them. China I would actually suspect of using Russia for resources and to try and damage the west economically or politically before completely double crossing them and I'd assume Vlad to be at least somewhat astute to that possibility.
True. But in this case the invading military has been corrupted from top to bottom, orientated more to being accomplices to gangsterism within Russia than it is to fighting offensive wars, especially against an enemy who can actually fight back.
It is also badly trained, badly equipped, lacks proper NCOs (as we in the West would understand the roles and purposes of NCOs to be) and comprised to a significant degree of conscripts and those who have been more or less press-ganged into the army by force, intimidation or deception: there is a very high rate of suicide within the Russian army ... prior to this invasion the Mother’s Right nonprofit estimates that up to 44% of deaths among military conscripts are suicides, while only 4% happen in the line of duty.
Moreover, it is fighting a war that most of the Russian military don't want and don't understand.
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Obviously not the case here where everyone follow this closely, but the way news are reported sometimes, highlighting exhaustively every ukranian victory, I think some folks who watch 5 minutes of news a day are expecting the ukranian army to be marching through moscow by christmas.
Plus preperation on the side of the Ukrainians after 2014. Having US/NATO intelligence and weapons systems have given them a fighting chance, without it maybe the initial convoy gets to Kyiv and this is over weeks ago.
Russian lieutenant colonel said to be 40th dead senior officer:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/...said-to-be-40th-dead-senior-officer-d6kctsmmg
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/...said-to-be-40th-dead-senior-officer-d6kctsmmg
Yes, but you can't win a war without propaganda, or PR if you wish to soften it, it is also an info war. And I much prefer a benevolent kind that we get in west than what the Russian public gets served. You also have to understand that the eastern European countries, bordering Russia, would descend into collective panic if you'd exhaustively report every Russian victory. I'd say what we get in the news here to keep up the morale, that they are capable of winning the war within Ukrainian borders. I also feel like a lot of it is to ridicule the opponent, which has always been common during war time. And of course, there's some hope that the odd pro-Putin person might get a glimpse of it and, if you can't change their mind, at least demoralize their position a bit.
Looks like the Ukrainians have hit something in or near Belgorod (inside Russia) again tonight.
See: Russian Invasion of East Prussia, 1914
Never underestimate the Russian’s ability to cock up a numerical advantage with an absolute gulf in quality.
Yep, for all the talk of numerous past wars where Russia has improved after a disastrous start (like the Winter War or WW2), there are also numerous examples of situations where Russia started disastrously and continued on disastrously to the end (Russo-Japanese war, WW1).
Ya for all the talk from the German posters that their country was wronged over the disinvitation from Kyiv, they conveniently forget the multitude, and I mean, multitude of ways that they empowered and continue to empower Russia. Now I don't doubt that the German posters genuinely hope to see Ukraine succeed, it's more about looking at the issue at all angles including your own country before taking issue with others.
I don't think this theory is entirely correct. The current operation and battle plan is actually very similar to the operation that the Soviets used to successfully crush Czechoslovakia in 1968. It is not that Putin didn't expect resistance to happen but more so that he underestimated the fighting will and competency of the Ukrainian armed forces and population. While Zelensky portrayed calm and downplayed reports that Russia would invade, his government still rigorously prepared behind the scenes to defend against an attack, if necessary. The Dubcek government did not in contrast.
You’d think they’d be happy that the Moskva successfully intercepted and destroyed a Ukrainian missile.
Russian propagandists may think this sort of talk intimidates the West, but really it has only two effects: (a) sharpens Western perception that the Russian state machine is full of crazed ultra-nationalists who absolutely must be defeated; and (b) stirs up further unease amongst ordinary Russians that things are getting way out of hand and heading towards WWIII.
The missile was successfully denazified and Ukranian control was removed. #achievingthemgoals
I think its largely for domestic consumption that can be used to prepare the Russian public for whatever violence Putin wants to use next.
It's also to lay the groundwork if he decides to push for a declaration of war so he can use conscripts. The Russians have been talking about attacks in Russia over the last several days, which seems to point in that direction. If the Ukrainians can hold out and stop the Russian advance in Donbas, he'll have to do something to save face.
Why would China want to damage the West? They are so globally integrated economically it would be like cutting the nose to spite the face. Why damage their huge customer base in the West?
China has over $400Billion invested just in Europe alone.