Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Pretty crazy to think how far this war has reached.

I still don't understand Putin's logic. His best case is he gets the Donbas and Crimea and forms a buffer of some sort. Is that really worth all of this? Hard for me to understand that it is. I'm hoping for some sort of resolution no this though.

I have no doubt under the table negotiations are being held. Just hope they speed it up.
 
NicolaSacco said:
Disappointing but it’s better than nothing, and if the gas embargo actually happens then it’s pretty potent. I can’t believe Hungary imports *that* much Russian fuel as a proportion of the EU.
Click to expand...

Meanwhile India has increased their import of Russian oil so I have my doubts as to how much this will impact Putin.
 
shamans said:
Pretty crazy to think how far this war has reached.

I still don't understand Putin's logic. His best case is he gets the Donbas and Crimea and forms a buffer of some sort. Is that really worth all of this? Hard for me to understand that it is. I'm hoping for some sort of resolution no this though.

I have no doubt under the table negotiations are being held. Just hope they speed it up.
Click to expand...

These events taken on a logic of their own as leaders (particularly a “strongman” like Putin) try to save face and avoid the potentially fatal consequences of being humiliated. Donbas and the land corridor is no real prize compared the economic, military and diplomatic damage incurred (and they would be inheriting a wasteland) but it is enough to claim victory of sorts and weaken Ukraine.
 
shamans said:
Pretty crazy to think how far this war has reached.

I still don't understand Putin's logic. His best case is he gets the Donbas and Crimea and forms a buffer of some sort. Is that really worth all of this? Hard for me to understand that it is. I'm hoping for some sort of resolution no this though.

I have no doubt under the table negotiations are being held. Just hope they speed it up.
Click to expand...

His logic is pretty simple. Invade and take over Ukraine to make it a Russian proxy in the Belarus mold, so that the ideals of a stronger, democratic version of Ukraine never have a chance to flight along his borders, and eventually within Russia itself. Ultimately, Democracy is Putin's kryptonite, especially when espoused by neighborly intra-slavic means. He knows it will destroy his corrupt dictatorship if he doesn't do anything to stop it.
 
Last edited:
shamans said:
Meanwhile India has increased their import of Russian oil so I have my doubts as to how much this will impact Putin.
Click to expand...

I guess it depends what India pays. There will always be a market for Russian fossil fuels, but the less available buyers the cheaper the price. If Russia could have simply transferred its oil from Europe to India at the same price it would have done so years ago.
 
MoskvaRed said:
These events taken on a logic of their own as leaders (particularly a “strongman” like Putin) try to save face and avoid the potentially fatal consequences of being humiliated. Donbas and the land corridor is no real prize compared the economic, military and diplomatic damage incurred (and they would be inheriting a wasteland) but it is enough to claim victory of sorts and weaken Ukraine.
Click to expand...

Saving face is important especially for people like Putin. This is why I'm a little worried with increased aggression towards Russia but of course it's not like there's a choice right now. I'm certain foreign affairs experts are smart enough to realize Putin needs a face saving here.

That said, the opposite also applies. I'm sure western powers want Putin to realize they won't back down and give him the pleasure of saving face because then anyone could hold them ransom in the future. It's a difficult game to play.
 
NicolaSacco said:
I guess it depends what India pays. There will always be a market for Russian fossil fuels, but the less available buyers the cheaper the price. If Russia could have simply transferred its oil from Europe to India at the same price it would have done so years ago.
Click to expand...

No it's definitely at a cheaper price. Russian oil right now is like 90 something a barrel when it's 110 in the "open" market. That's still enough to offset the impact of a sanction though. I don't think these sanctions are useless but I just wonder how effective they are.

I can't know for sure though. Some articles I read make it seem the sanctions have absolutely destroyed the economy and some sound like they're doing fine exporting the same stuff to alternate countries.
 
shamans said:
Pretty crazy to think how far this war has reached.

I still don't understand Putin's logic. His best case is he gets the Donbas and Crimea and forms a buffer of some sort. Is that really worth all of this? Hard for me to understand that it is. I'm hoping for some sort of resolution no this though.

I have no doubt under the table negotiations are being held. Just hope they speed it up.
Click to expand...

He thought he could annexe the whole of Ukraine or at least the very oil and gas rich Black Sea. He didn't think sanctions would be this bad because Europe needs his oil and gas. He essentially gambled and lost. Getting a land bridge to the Crimea and increasing the land next to the black sea will increase Russia's economic output in terms of oil and gas production
 
shamans said:
No it's definitely at a cheaper price. Russian oil right now is like 90 something a barrel when it's 110 in the "open" market. That's still enough to offset the impact of a sanction though. I don't think these sanctions are useless but I just wonder how effective they are.

I can't know for sure though. Some articles I read make it seem the sanctions have absolutely destroyed the economy and some sound like they're doing fine exporting the same stuff to alternate countries.
Click to expand...

IIRC when Venezuela was sanctioned the measures took months, even years to make its full effect, and even then it was debatable if that was the main cause of the venezuelan economic crisis. Considering that, I wouldn't put too much hope in the sanctions as a gamechanger.

Nevertheless, if companies were selling oil at 110 a barrel with a cost of (let's say) 40 and now are selling it at 90 with likely higher costs (materials, logistics, less manpower available), that probably is gonna impact the economy overall. And an unstable economy tends to make leaderships and institutions unstable as well.
 
Last edited:
Krakenzero said:
IIRC when Venezuela was sanctioned the measures took months, even years to make its full effect, and even then it was debatable if that was the main cause of the venezuelan economic crisis. Considering that, I wouldn't put too much hope in the sanctions as a gamechanger.

Nevertheless, if companies were selling oil at 110 a barrel with a cost of (let's say) 40 and now are selling it at 90 with likely higher costs (materials, logistics, less manpower available), that probably is gonna impact the economy overall. And an unstable economy tends to make leaderships and institutions unstable as well.
Click to expand...

Indeed. Ships are forced on longer voyages when carrying Urals crude from Russia's western ports to Asia rather than Europe, with a one-way journey to China apparently often taking about two months.
 
shamans said:
No it's definitely at a cheaper price. Russian oil right now is like 90 something a barrel when it's 110 in the "open" market. That's still enough to offset the impact of a sanction though. I don't think these sanctions are useless but I just wonder how effective they are.

I can't know for sure though. Some articles I read make it seem the sanctions have absolutely destroyed the economy and some sound like they're doing fine exporting the same stuff to alternate countries.
Click to expand...

I guess we’ll see the effects when world fossil fuel prices in general go down, as they will do at some point.
 
VorZakone said:
It seems a lot of Ukrainians have been deported to Russia. Why are the Russians spending all that logistical capacity on deporting Ukrainians?
Click to expand...

Because they aim to erase Ukrainian national identity, history, culture, land ... everything.
 
VorZakone said:
It seems a lot of Ukrainians have been deported to Russia. Why are the Russians spending all that logistical capacity on deporting Ukrainians?
Click to expand...

GlastonSpur said:
Because they aim to erase Ukrainian national identity, history, culture, land ... everything.
Click to expand...

You also have to wonder if all these Ukranians being deported aren't just being murdered as part of a mass genocide.
 
ThierryFabregas said:
You also have to wonder if all these Ukranians being deported aren't just being murdered as part of a mass genocide.
Click to expand...
That is part of the legal definition of genocide; it doesn’t matter in that sense whether they are systematically murdered or not. Erasing their identity as Ukrainian by deportation and forced adoption of children, which is being fast-tracked (allegedly), contribute towards meeting the standards of whether a genocide is taking place.
 
Organic Potatoes said:
That is part of the legal definition of genocide; it doesn’t matter in that sense whether they are systematically murdered or not. Erasing their identity as Ukrainian by deportation and forced adoption of children, which is being fast-tracked (allegedly), contribute towards meeting the standards of whether a genocide is taking place.
Click to expand...

I'm more comfortable sticking with ethnic cleansing, but I guess word choice doesn't matter too much.
 
NotThatSoph said:
I'm more comfortable sticking with ethnic cleansing, but I guess word choice doesn't matter too much.
Click to expand...
Yeah, it is all terrible; I’m not sure if me being pedantic about it is necessary. But being that it’s meeting the criteria established by the UN I feel comfortable using it in this context regarding Russia’s actions taken as a whole.
 
GlastonSpur said:
Click to expand...


Only roughly 1,000 Russian POWs? I thought there would a lot more than that if we have to believe the reports of disgruntlement and low morale. The Iraqis surrendered in large numbers during the Gulf War when their army was more or less in the same messy state as the Russian army now.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.