Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

... I'm assuming you'll accept the United Nation's own OSCE as a source?

War crimes of the armed forces and security forces of Ukraine: torture and inhumane treatment

https://www.osce.org/files/f/documents/e/7/233896.pdf

Every military in every country in the world has at least a few bad apples. The difference with Russian troops is that it's systemic - they are actively encouraged by their commanders to behave in such ways as part of their doctrine of war-fighting.
 
Every military in every country in the world has at least a few bad apples. The difference with Russian troops is that it's systemic - they are actively encouraged by their commanders to behave in such ways as part of their doctrine of war-fighting.

I don't think that we need to dismiss the allegations. They can be investigated and if guilt is established the perpetrators should be punished.
 
Every military in every country in the world has at least a few bad apples.
You read all 74 pages of proven systemic war crimes ordered from the highest level of the "democratic" Ukrainian government in just 90 seconds? I've under-estimated your intelligence.
 
Granted it's not quite your psychiс friend but I'm assuming you'll accept the United Nations' own OSCE as a source?

War crimes of the armed forces and security forces of Ukraine: torture and inhumane treatment

https://www.osce.org/files/f/documents/e/7/233896.pdf

That first photo is of a Ukrainian citizen tortured to death by the Ukrainian SBU back in 2014, when this conflict began. And from there you have 74 more pages of something other than "Putin invaded because he hates democracy!"

So I suppose you would accept an osce investigation into the actions of the Russian army in Ukraine ?

Then what would be the point of the invasion; because there were crimes we send an army to commit many more and all kinds of crimes ? Explain that to me.
 
I don't think that we need to dismiss the allegations. They can be investigated and if guilt is established the perpetrators should be punished.

I agree - and I haven't dismissed the allegations.
 
France has shown itself to the rest of the democratic world that in time of crisis it is not a country that can be relied upon.
France showed that back in 2003 when they tried to prevent the US from bringing democracy to Irak... But they've learned since then and led the way in bringing democracy to Libya.

On a more serious note, what are you basing this on? They encouraged Finland and Sweden to join Nato and issued a strong statement supporting the process, bringing Nato closer to Russia (not really something "appeasing" for Putin).



Their foreign minister was in Ukraine this week and announced sending in more heavy artillery...

 
So I suppose you would accept an osce investigation into the actions of the Russian army in Ukraine ?

Then what would be the point of the invasion; because there were crimes we send an army to commit many more and all kinds of crimes ? Explain that to me.
I haven't read all that guy's posts but he strikes me as someone who thinks that we all think Ukraine is the bestest and most morally righteous country in the world.

I assume most posters here on the Caf would know Ukraine is actually quite corrupt and most likely not ready for EU-membership. But guess what, that is all besides the point anyway. In this conflict Russia is the clear aggressor.
 
You read all 74 pages of proven systemic war crimes ordered from the highest level of the "democratic" Ukrainian government in just 90 seconds? I've under-estimated your intelligence.

I suggest you take your absurd attempts to paint an equivalence between the Ukrainian and Russian governments - all designed to somehow justify Russia's invasion - and shove them where the sun don't shine.
 
So I suppose you would accept an osce investigation into the actions of the Russian army in Ukraine ?

Then what would be the point of the invasion; because there were crimes we send an army to commit many more and all kinds of crimes ? Explain that to me.

To your first point, absolutely yes, I not only 'accept' that but I welcome it, and one is currently going on (not only from OSCE by the way). The Russian army is committing war crimes now in Ukraine and those who are doing it and ordering it should be held responsible, especially Putin. How many times do I need to type this? I'll try once more: EVERY last shred of moral high ground Putin perceived he had over the 'war-mongering West' was napalmed the day (March 16th) he deliberately bombed Ukrainian children in the Mariupol theatre.

And forgive me for being blunt but your 2nd 'point' is silly. You very obviously have no idea what any of this conflict is about beyond what you've been drip-fed about "Russia is invading a flourishing democracy because it's a threat to Putin's autocracy!" On February 23rd Putin explained his rationale for the invasion and he also stated his 3 aims. You are free to disagree with him but in order to do that you must first know what he actually said. It's clear to me that you don't.

It's late here and I'm done for the night.
 
This is the calculus the US and other leading western states are likely banking on. Russia’s resources are increasingly limited as war and sanctions gradually erode them from within, whereas Ukrainian morale and resources from the west are virtually unlimited. So at some undefined point in the future, there will be a tipping point where Russian resolve collapses and Putin is either murdered or deposed from within.

That point in the future will be reached sooner if the West manage to cut Russia off from China, and for that to happen there needs to be some sort of a comprehensive deal -a truce in the "cold trade war"?- with China to make them throw the Russian regime under the bus. Push the commercial conflict with China down the line. And hope the regime in China learns a lesson from Putin's fate...
 
France showed that back in 2003 when they tried to prevent the US from bringing democracy to Irak... But they've learned since then and led the way in bringing democracy to Libya.

On a more serious note, what are you basing this on? They encouraged Finland and Sweden to join Nato and issued a strong statement supporting the process, bringing Nato closer to Russia (not really something "appeasing" for Putin).



Their foreign minister was in Ukraine this week and announced sending in more heavy artillery...


Tens of thousands of dead civilians in Ukraine because of Russian aggresion but according to Macron the important thing is that Russia dosent get humiliated. To me that sound like France doesnt give a shit about Ukraine or the Ukrainians, they only want Russias cheap gas and oil no matter the cost of human suffering.
 
And forgive me for being blunt but your 2nd 'point' is silly. You very obviously have no idea what any of this conflict is about beyond what you've been drip-fed about "Russia is invading a flourishing democracy because it's a threat to Putin's autocracy!" On February 23rd Putin explained his rationale for the invasion and he also stated his 3 aims. You are free to disagree with him but in order to do that you must first know what he actually said. It's clear to me that you don't.

It's late here and I'm done for the night.

Where did I write something about a flourishing democracy in Ukraine ? And I‘ve read what Putin said, for example to denazify the Ukraine … well yes I disagree
;)
thanks for the answer anyway
 
Tens of thousands of dead civilians in Ukraine because of Russian aggresion but according to Macron the important thing is that Russia dosent get humiliated. To me that sound like France doesnt give a shit about Ukraine or the Ukrainians, they only want cheap gas and oil no matter the cost of human suffering.
And that's America's domain dammit!!!

Ok with that easy but admittedly cheap shot I really am off for the night.
 
Tens of thousands of dead civilians in Ukraine because of Russian aggresion but according to Macron the important thing is that Russia dosent get humiliated. To me that sound like France doesnt give a shit about Ukraine or the Ukrainians, they only want Russias cheap gas and oil no matter the cost of human suffering.

If Western Europe was sensible we would all move to 100% renewables as soon as practically possible, and not flinch in that task.
 
To your first point, absolutely yes, I not only 'accept' that but I welcome it, and one is currently going on (not only from OSCE by the way). The Russian army is committing war crimes now in Ukraine and those who are doing it and ordering it should be held responsible, especially Putin. How many times do I need to type this? I'll try once more: EVERY last shred of moral high ground Putin perceived he had over the 'war-mongering West' was napalmed the day (March 16th) he deliberately bombed Ukrainian children in the Mariupol theatre.

And forgive me for being blunt but your 2nd 'point' is silly. You very obviously have no idea what any of this conflict is about beyond what you've been drip-fed about "Russia is invading a flourishing democracy because it's a threat to Putin's autocracy!" On February 23rd Putin explained his rationale for the invasion and he also stated his 3 aims. You are free to disagree with him but in order to do that you must first know what he actually said. It's clear to me that you don't.

It's late here and I'm done for the night.

Could you succinctly state your view of this war? I'm genuinely interested. Do you believe Russia had legitimate reasons to invade Ukraine ?
 
Tens of thousands of dead civilians in Ukraine because of Russian aggresion but according to Macron the important thing is that Russia dosent get humiliated. To me that sound like France doesnt give a shit about Ukraine or the Ukrainians, they only want Russias cheap gas and oil no matter the cost of human suffering.
I don't think he's ever said that. And I find it weird to be sending some of France's deadliest material to Ukraine if he really thought it was so important to avoid Russia's humiliation.

Oil has been stopped already... France consumes very little Gas in general. It is only 15% of their energy consumption (Nuclear energy first). And only 15% of that gas comes from Russia. Amounting to less than 2,5 % of France's energy consumption.
 
I don't think he's ever said that. And I find it weird to be sending some of France's deadliest material to Ukraine if he really thought it was so important to avoid Russia's humiliation.

Oil has been stopped already... France consumes very little Gas in general. It is only 15% of their energy consumption (Nuclear energy first). And only 15% of that gas comes from Russia. Amounting to less than 2,5 % of France's energy consumption.
 
Could you succinctly state your view of this war? I'm genuinely interested. Do you believe Russia had legitimate reasons to invade Ukraine ?
I'll answer this more completely tomorrow (knackered now) but very briefly: legitimate reasons to invade? Absolutely no. Legitimate concerns and grievances? Absolutely yes (and pretty much nobody denies this, even the UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres stated it after he met Putin last month and said his biggest regret was that the UN didn't get involved sooner as a mediator in the Donbas war that started in 2014). But no concerns and no grievances justify invading Ukraine, much less justify the horror of what he's now doing. He had countless other routes he could have taken to address his concerns. Putin's biggest complaint is that nobody in the West listens to him but he'd have more success finding a willing audience there if he stopped poisoning his critics on their soil and messing around with their elections.
 
I'll answer this more completely tomorrow (knackered now) but very briefly: legitimate reasons to invade? Absolutely no. Legitimate concerns and grievances? Absolutely yes (and pretty much nobody denies this, even the UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres stated it after he met Putin last month and said his biggest regret was that the UN didn't get involved sooner as a mediator in the Donbas war that started in 2014). But no concerns and no grievances justify invading Ukraine, much less justify the horror of what he's now doing. He had countless other routes he could have taken to address his concerns. Putin's biggest complaint is that nobody in the West listens to him but he'd have more success finding a willing audience there if he stopped poisoning his critics on their soil and messing around with their elections.
Well that is when this invasion started so unless Guterres thinks he could have convinced Putin to pull back his forces to pre 2014 invasion borders I don't see what the UN could have accomplished.
 


Ok. This sounds humiliating in itself. Saying we gotta avoid humiliating Russia is enough humiliation. But it is still doesn't mean what you wrote:

You said : " but according to Macron the important thing is that Russia dosent get humiliated. To me that sound like France doesnt give a shit about Ukraine or the Ukrainians, they only want Russias cheap gas and oil no matter the cost of human suffering. "

I am not saying France (or Germany, or Poland, or anyone) cares enough about Ukrainians for humanity or something like that. Governments normally care about their own interests, and Ukraine happens to align with those interests. And France is certainly doing as much as could be expected of them in helping Ukraine (non-EU, non-Nato member). It is sad the West isn't doing more, but actually it is doing a lot compared to what was expected...
 
If I were "scared" I would simply take my family and move to my native England, it would be very easy for me to do that.

As for your post, you may well be correct but I obviously don't think so. Again, look at how the messaging from the West has been shifting over the last month. Back in March and April everyone was gung-ho for supporting Ukraine "for as long as it takes". In my opinion this was driven by the belief that Russia's war was being so ineptly carried out that Putin would be suffocated into a quick defeat ("there'll be nothing left of the Russian economy by June!"). But that is not going to happen. Back in March the New York Times was one of the biggest proponents of the idea that America should give all the money and weapons Ukraine needs in order to 'win'. Fast forward a couple of months and now we're getting this, from the editorial board:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/19/opinion/america-ukraine-war-support.html

In addition, more and more articles on the American news sites are starting to mention "the midterms" when writing about America's financial support of the war, as in "Biden needs to be wary of the midterms". Why? If, as Pelosi and Schumer and all the rest keep saying, "America will stand with our Ukrainian friends until victory is won" (sound familiar Afghanis?) then why do the midterms matter? We know the answer of course. America's debt is currently about 130% of GDP, prices are through the roof, gas prices have doubled, Biden has countless problems back in America, his ratings are subterranean and come November it is going to be increasingly difficult to explain to Americans why he's continuing to send billions of dollars to Ukraine. Especially when more people will be realising that this war has nothing to do with "defending Ukrainian democracy" or whatever other fatuous nonsense they've been saying about the reasons for this invasion. 'Zelenskiy' is saying he won't make any compromises and he won't even start negotiations until the Russian army has withdrawn to its pre-February 24th position. That is never going to happen. Therefore, unless the Biden Admin want to be exposed as liars, it means they're going to have to fund Ukraine's war indefinitely. And as I've suggested, all those who are hoping the printing press will continue to just print more money to pay for it all are going to be sorely disappointed. With everyone from the governor of the Bank of England...

https://www.ft.com/content/0a8f0465-12ed-412b-94cb-571f9fb6f0d4

...to the CEO of JPMorgan Chase...

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/01/jam...ricane-caused-by-the-fed-and-ukraine-war.html

...saying financial armageddon is on the way, and the Biden Admin making the blunder of calling it all a "Putin price hike" (well then why are you looking to extend it rather than press Zelenskiy to sue for peace?), continuing to fund Ukraine's war will be risky at best, political suicide at worst. Americans don't care about "Ukrainian freedom". They simply don't. The Americans (including in this thread) who are demanding Ukraine fight on to the last Ukrainian soldier and, ideally, the last European euro are doing so because this war is riveting entertainment for them, and because - an American trait - they don't believe that the bill will ever come. "Printing press go buuuuurrrrrr", right? Wrong. Not this time.

Put bluntly, everyone was adamant back in March that the West must bankroll Ukraine's push for total victory because it was believed that the sanctions would quickly cripple Putin's war machine. They haven't, and they won't. And that's why France and Germany have been trying to push 'Zelenskiy' to sue for peace, and why in the last few days even America has said they're going to consider Italy's 4-step proposal for a peaceful settlement (a month ago they dismissed any such talk out of hand). Without NATO boots on the ground (something Ukraine has been desperately trying to make happen), there is no realistic scenario where the Ukrainians win, and they will have to cede territory. Literally everyone in politics knows this, they're just afraid to say it because they see what happens to people (Kissinger for example) who do, they get the facile "Neville Chamberlain and Hitler!" nonsense.

Furthermore (to sum up my main point), an economic collapse is coming, but for Ukraine, not Russia. Ukraine lived on its heavy industry, its grain exports, and the transit fees for Russian oil and gas. All have now gone and Zelenskiy needs something like 10 billion dollars A MONTH only to keep his economy afloat, without even considering the war costs (sidebar - how much money are the billionaire Ukrainian oligarchs sending to Ukraine from their Swiss chateaus? The British taxpayers sent 300 million last month, how much did Zelenskiy's boss Kolomoiyskiy send?). Russia can still export its resources to the non-Western world whereas Ukraine is now wholly reliant on its new 'sponsor' from across the pond, and as many countries have experienced, the US is a very capricious 'sponsor'.

I'll post this link from today, but I'll add the acknowledgement that The Hill is not exactly first rate journalism (still a sounder source than Glaston's psychic friend though). Nevertheless I think it raises points that are worth considering:

https://thehill.com/opinion/interna...-win-a-public-relations-war-against-the-west/


Simultaneously, the heretofore skimpy and universally negative reporting of Putin’s intentions has begun to morph into a dawning perception that the Russian leader’s strategy of conquering a land bridge to Crimea and gaining a chokehold on the entire Ukrainian economy, via total control of the Black Sea coastline, is not quite as inept as previously reported.

Another element of the conventional wisdom now crumbling is the idea that the crippling sanctions imposed by the U.S. and European Union nations would soon bring the Russian economy to its knees. Instead, there is evidence that the opposite may be occurring, with sanctions doing more damage to Western economies than to Russia’s. Far from being the “rubble” predicted by President Biden, the ruble hit a two-year high in May and Russian energy and agricultural exports were producing record high revenues, in large part because Europe and much of the rest of the world can’t do without them.

Related to these phenomena is the utter unreality of the war’s foundational myth — namely that the United States has rallied almost the entire world against a nearly totally isolated Russia. In truth, of the world’s 195 countries only 65 have agreed to join the American sanctions regime — meaning that 130 have refused, including China, India, Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia, most of Asia, Africa and Latin America, countries that together constitute the vast majority of the world’s population.

Consider also that the nations the U.S. currently targets with sanctions represent a powerful bloc strongly opposing what they regard as America’s economic bullying. A striking example of the rejection of U.S. assumptions of dominance was a recent meeting of the world’s leading financial nations — the G-20 Summit — when the U.S. delegation walked out on a speech by a Russian delegate and only three of the other 19 delegations followed suit.
feck me, did you really type all that shit? Let's hope the war is over ASAP without all your stressy bollox
 
Ok. This sounds humiliating in itself. Saying we gotta avoid humiliating Russia is enough humiliation. But it is still doesn't mean what you wrote:

You said : " but according to Macron the important thing is that Russia dosent get humiliated. To me that sound like France doesnt give a shit about Ukraine or the Ukrainians, they only want Russias cheap gas and oil no matter the cost of human suffering. "

I am not saying France (or Germany, or Poland, or anyone) cares enough about Ukrainians for humanity or something like that. Governments normally care about their own interests, and Ukraine happens to align with those interests. And France is certainly doing as much as could be expected of them in helping Ukraine (non-EU, non-Nato member). It is sad the West isn't doing more, but actually it is doing a lot compared to what was expected...
First of all, please don't mix in Poland with the likes of Germany and France. Poland is taking in milions of Ukrainian refugees all while donating more material than most other nations so they should not be compared to the likes of Germany and France. And no France is not doing as much as could be expected of them when their leader seems more intersted in saving face for the Russian murderes then anything else.
 
To your first point, absolutely yes, I not only 'accept' that but I welcome it, and one is currently going on (not only from OSCE by the way). The Russian army is committing war crimes now in Ukraine and those who are doing it and ordering it should be held responsible, especially Putin. How many times do I need to type this? I'll try once more: EVERY last shred of moral high ground Putin perceived he had over the 'war-mongering West' was napalmed the day (March 16th) he deliberately bombed Ukrainian children in the Mariupol theatre.

And forgive me for being blunt but your 2nd 'point' is silly. You very obviously have no idea what any of this conflict is about beyond what you've been drip-fed about "Russia is invading a flourishing democracy because it's a threat to Putin's autocracy!" On February 23rd Putin explained his rationale for the invasion and he also stated his 3 aims. You are free to disagree with him but in order to do that you must first know what he actually said. It's clear to me that you don't.

It's late here and I'm done for the night.

You actually believe anything that Putin says? Good grief.

Putin invaded Ukraine for a combination of reasons, including (as a major reason) because he fears the example to the Russian people of a free and democratic Ukraine, but also because he wants to restore some mythical "Golden Age" of Russian Empire (with himself seen as saviour Tsar), wants to distract the younger generation of Russians from sliding away from Soviet values towards Western liberalism, and also because he is lost in delusions that he can shift the international order in Russia's favour by confronting the West.
 
America is fully engaged on the good side right now. But this wasn't that long ago:



On that basis I hereby reclaim the USA for England.

Gun-ownership will be banned, all American spellings will be changed, and American supporters of Spurs will become your new national role-models.
 
That point in the future will be reached sooner if the West manage to cut Russia off from China, and for that to happen there needs to be some sort of a comprehensive deal -a truce in the "cold trade war"?- with China to make them throw the Russian regime under the bus. Push the commercial conflict with China down the line. And hope the regime in China learns a lesson from Putin's fate...
This article (sorry for the paywall but you get the gist here) is relevant on that subject, as well as the impact of sanctions which has been in question…

 
I'll answer this more completely tomorrow (knackered now) but very briefly: legitimate reasons to invade? Absolutely no. Legitimate concerns and grievances? Absolutely yes (and pretty much nobody denies this, even the UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres stated it after he met Putin last month and said his biggest regret was that the UN didn't get involved sooner as a mediator in the Donbas war that started in 2014). But no concerns and no grievances justify invading Ukraine, much less justify the horror of what he's now doing. He had countless other routes he could have taken to address his concerns. Putin's biggest complaint is that nobody in the West listens to him but he'd have more success finding a willing audience there if he stopped poisoning his critics on their soil and messing around with their elections.

Understood, thanks for the reply - It's always nice to see a different perspective with these things. Such a messy situation. Personally, I agree with what Glaston has written below pretty much exactly. Not that it matters now I suppose, war is war. How it will end is the question now..


Putin invaded Ukraine for a combination of reasons, including (as a major reason) because he fears the example to the Russian people of a free and democratic Ukraine, but also because he wants to restore some mythical "Golden Age" of Russian Empire (with himself seen as saviour Tsar), wants to distract the younger generation of Russians from sliding away from Soviet values towards Western liberalism, and also because he is lost in delusions that he can shift the international order in Russia's favour by confronting the West.
 
As for your post, you may well be correct but I obviously don't think so. Again, look at how the messaging from the West has been shifting over the last month. Back in March and April everyone was gung-ho for supporting Ukraine "for as long as it takes". In my opinion this was driven by the belief that Russia's war was being so ineptly carried out that Putin would be suffocated into a quick defeat ("there'll be nothing left of the Russian economy by June!"). But that is not going to happen. Back in March the New York Times was one of the biggest proponents of the idea that America should give all the money and weapons Ukraine needs in order to 'win'. Fast forward a couple of months and now we're getting this, from the editorial board:
You have a really weird view of western journalism. There was never anything even remotely close to unanimity among them neither in making predictions nor in what should be done about the invasion and you very conveniently leave out that at the beginning of invasion the consensus was much closer to "it's only a matter of days, maybe weeks, before full occupation of Ukraine" and even a ton of relative optimists weren't really pointing to any real possibility of Ukraine holding anything, but were pointing that occupation might be too expensive for Russia to be viable.
Overarching trends might have changed (which to a certain extent is to be expected, since changes on the ground are not consistent Ukrainian gains anymore), but you could absolutely find those voices since start of the invasion (and regarding inflation in a lot of countries even before it). Those editorials really aren't nearly as special as you seem to imply.