Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Krakenzero said:
Thanks. So, OK-ish news?

I imagine that a full membership without a secured border is unfeasible for the EU, so an end of the war is mandatory for Ukraine to join. Maybe that would take a couple of years.
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No, it is great news. Nobody saw Ukraine getting candidacy for the EU in 2022 or anytime soon before this war. It means that Euromaidan and everything else since has brought them closer. There’s still a long way to go, but Ukraine has never been closer to the EU.
 
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TMDaines said:
No, it is great news. Nobody saw Ukraine getting candidacy for the EU in 2022 or anytime soon before this war. It means that Euromaidan and everything else since has brought them closer. There’s still a long way to go, but Ukraine has never been closer to the EU.
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That's because nobody saw Ukraine being invaded and reduced to rubble in 2022, but that doesn't change the fact that it is still only a media-oriented gesture of solidarity. Morally very important but practically meaningless. At this point the EU Commission can say nothing other than "Sure, we'll accept you as a candidate", it would look absolutely terrible if they said anything different. "Sorry, you still have at least 15 years' work to do, you're still in Kolomoiyskiy's pocket, Zelenskiy!" would invalidate literally everything else they've been saying about how "Ukraine will win so long as we stay unified!" Despite what you wrote in your last line, Ukraine has never been further from joining the EU than it is today. I guarantee you that the likes of Germany, France and Italy do NOT want Ukraine in the EU, now even more so than before February 24th. And as I wrote before, the UK (the government, not the people) is absolutely gutted right now about today's 'decision', empty gesture or not. I can't wait for a Cabinet member (Truss or Wallace would be great, Boris beyond my wildest dreams) to be asked for their thoughts on the EU giving candidate status to Ukraine.
 
DT12 said:
That's because nobody saw Ukraine being invaded and reduced to rubble in 2022, but that doesn't change the fact that it is still only a media-oriented gesture of solidarity. Morally very important but practically meaningless. At this point the EU Commission can say nothing other than "Sure, we'll accept you as a candidate", it would look absolutely terrible if they said anything different. "Sorry, you still have at least 15 years' work to do, you're still in Kolomoiyskiy's pocket, Zelenskiy!" would invalidate literally everything else they've been saying about how "Ukraine will win so long as we stay unified!" Despite what you wrote in your last line, Ukraine has never been further from joining the EU than it is today. I guarantee you that the likes of Germany, France and Italy do NOT want Ukraine in the EU, now even more so than before February 24th. And as I wrote before, the UK (the government, not the people) is absolutely gutted right now about today's 'decision', empty gesture or not. I can't wait for a Cabinet member (Truss or Wallace would be great, Boris beyond my wildest dreams) to be asked for their thoughts on the EU giving candidate status to Ukraine.
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You’re getting very worked up about it in the small hours of your morning. Nighty nighty.
 
Quality control
TMDaines said:
You’re getting very worked up about it in the small hours of your morning. Nighty nighty.
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I always forget, anything remotely approaching actual conversation is above your paygrade isn't it? You prefer the terse and pithy social media one-liners.

Not to worry, Glaston's back, he'll tell you all about what Russian tanks were blown up today and when Putin's going to die of cancer. This thread had a decent week, back to normal now. Nighty nighty as you say.
 
Stanley Road said:
It's a token gesture but a good one. Candidate status for nato would be interesting if it existed
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With different terminology it was essentially offered by George W Bush back in 2008 (shortly after Putin's Munich speech), hence this war now.

This guy is not popular in the West now because he veers from the fatuous 'good v evil' Disney narrative, but these 2 minutes and 41 seconds are worth your time:

 
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One last post for tonight and then I really will bid 'nighty night' to that chap up there. It's prompted by the return of Glaston, whose 8000 indiscriminate tweets a day I cannot claim to have missed.

Remember how about 6 weeks back someone posted a tweet (from a person with almost no followers) about how the Russian army had anally raped 2 twin toddlers to death? Certain posters came in here and said that "orcs" deserve to be tortured and buried alive (I sincerely don't think people who claim to be most opposed to fascists realise how susceptible they are to becoming them).

I then made my first post in this thread asking if people ever considered that maybe such cartoonish reports were not actually true, and I was called a Kremlin-bot c*nt for doing so.

The reason I mention this is because you may have noticed a severe drop-off in the number of reports of Russian soldiers anally gang-raping children to death over the last month. During the first 2 months of the war the media was full of reports of this war crime, that atrocity, this child rape, that child rape. But of late...nothing. It's almost like the Russian army raped themselves out in the first emotional 6 weeks of the war.

Well, a few weeks ago the Ukrainian Parliament fired their commissioner for human rights, Lyudmila Denisova (the woman cited in numerous tweets on here back in March and April, including the "anal raping of twin todders" tweet that turned some posters on here into fascists).

https://www.newsweek.com/lyudmila-d...removed-russian-sexual-assault-claims-1711680

They fired her because she admitted to making stuff up about rapes, sexual violence and war crimes (her impeccable reasoning for doing so was: "It got us the attention of the Western media"). The Ukrainian Parliament said that it was detrimental to their cause to have blatantly untrue nonsense promulgated by their own government, even if it did find an audience among Western social media users with piss-poor critical thinking skills who instantly retweet it all to foment psychotic outbursts in credulous idiots.

I know what reaction this post will get from the usual suspects, and I really don't care anymore. Some of you need to know this stuff, because it sure as hell won't be posted by Glaston and the like.

Nighty night, TM.
 
DT12 said:
That's because nobody saw Ukraine being invaded and reduced to rubble in 2022, but that doesn't change the fact that it is still only a media-oriented gesture of solidarity. Morally very important but practically meaningless. At this point the EU Commission can say nothing other than "Sure, we'll accept you as a candidate", it would look absolutely terrible if they said anything different. "Sorry, you still have at least 15 years' work to do, you're still in Kolomoiyskiy's pocket, Zelenskiy!" would invalidate literally everything else they've been saying about how "Ukraine will win so long as we stay unified!" Despite what you wrote in your last line, Ukraine has never been further from joining the EU than it is today. I guarantee you that the likes of Germany, France and Italy do NOT want Ukraine in the EU, now even more so than before February 24th. And as I wrote before, the UK (the government, not the people) is absolutely gutted right now about today's 'decision', empty gesture or not. I can't wait for a Cabinet member (Truss or Wallace would be great, Boris beyond my wildest dreams) to be asked for their thoughts on the EU giving candidate status to Ukraine.
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Think of what it means to the Ukrainian people, after everything they stood up to in 2014 and beyond. It may be a gesture, but it is a significant one to them.
 
DT12 said:
... Not to worry, Glaston's back, he'll tell you all about what Russian tanks were blown up today and when Putin's going to die of cancer. This thread had a decent week, back to normal now. Nighty nighty as you say.
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Not to worry (if you want Russia to win), because DT12 said on June 4th that "Donbas would fall to Russia by the end of June" and (also on June 4th) eagerly misquoted the UK MOD to claim that Russia will take all of Luhansk within the next 2 weeks.

Well, here we are almost 3 weeks later and all of Luhansk still has not been taken, far less the entire Donbas ... so the Russians better get their skates on because, according to DT12, there are only 7 days remaining before the Donbas falls.
 
GlastonSpur said:
Not to worry (if you want Russia to win), DT12 said on June 4th that "Donbas would fall to Russia by the end of June" and (also on June 4th) eagerly misquoted the UK MOD to claim that Russia will take all of Luhansk within the next 2 weeks.

Well, here we are almost 3 weeks later and all of Luhansk still has not been taken, far less the entire Donbas ... so the Russians better get their skates on because, according to DT12, there are only 7 days remaining before the Donbas falls.
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Luhansk is 95% in Russian control. Donetsk is 55% under Russian control. Those are the facts and they are in line with my predictions 3 weeks ago.

You on the other hand claimed that your psychic friend said Putin is finally going to succumb to his cocktail of bowel, bladder, bone, brain and bollock cancer, and to my eyes he looked fighting fit at the BRICS conference today.

But like I said, you're back now and I yield the thread to you, what you do here is what most people come looking for.
 
DT12 said:
Luhansk is 95% in Russian control. Donetsk is 55% under Russian control. Those are the facts and they are in line with my predictions 3 weeks ago.

You on the other hand claimed that your psychic friend said Putin is finally going to succumb to his cocktail of bowel, bladder, bone, brain and bollock cancer, and to my eyes he looked fighting fit at the BRICS conference today.

But like I said, you're back now and I yield the thread to you, what you do here is what most people come looking for.
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Got a link to the percentages? I haven't been following recent events all that much.
 
RedSky said:
Got a link to the percentages? I haven't been following recent events all that much.
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No need for percentages with Donbas - that’s one town away from being under Russian control. Donetsk though I’ve seen 45% pop up, obviously much more fighting to happen there. Seems the gamble is hoping they tie up Putin in the East and can retake Kherson where they’ve made gains. I’m amazed how long it taking Russia to be honest but attrition for both sides must be horrendous.
 
DT12 said:
Luhansk is 95% in Russian control. Donetsk is 55% under Russian control. Those are the facts and they are in line with my predictions 3 weeks ago.

You on the other hand claimed that your psychic friend said Putin is finally going to succumb to his cocktail of bowel, bladder, bone, brain and bollock cancer, and to my eyes he looked fighting fit at the BRICS conference today.

But like I said, you're back now and I yield the thread to you, what you do here is what most people come looking for.
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95% control of Luhansk is pretty much what the Russians had nearly 3 weeks ago. You claimed they'd have it all inside 2 weeks from June 4th.

If Donetsk is 55% under Russian control, that means they must take take the remaining 45% (and the rest of Luhansk) inside the next 7 days if your claim is to come true. Clearly this won't happen.

But rather than admit that both your claims have collapsed, you come out with obvious bollocks, namely that what has happened is "in line with my [i.e. your] predictions 3 weeks ago."
 
tomaldinho1 said:
No need for percentages with Donbas - that’s one town away from being under Russian control. Donetsk though I’ve seen 45% pop up, obviously much more fighting to happen there. Seems the gamble is hoping they tie up Putin in the East and can retake Kherson where they’ve made gains. I’m amazed how long it taking Russia to be honest but attrition for both sides must be horrendous.
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'Donbas' is the regions of Luhansk and Donestsk. I think in the sentence I've underlined you meant to write "Luhansk" rather than "Donbas"
 
tomaldinho1 said:
No need for percentages with Donbas - that’s one town away from being under Russian control. Donetsk though I’ve seen 45% pop up, obviously much more fighting to happen there. Seems the gamble is hoping they tie up Putin in the East and can retake Kherson where they’ve made gains. I’m amazed how long it taking Russia to be honest but attrition for both sides must be horrendous.
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This is not the the case. If you meant the Luhansk region of the Donbas, then the Russians still need to take two towns/cities: Severodonetsk and Lysychansk
 
DT12 said:
'Donbas' is the regions of Luhansk and Donestsk. I think in the sentence I've underlined you meant to write "Luhansk" rather than "Donbas"
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Yes, exactly that. Luhansk is essentially occupied, Donetsk under a lot of pressure.
GlastonSpur said:
This is not the the case. If you meant the Luhansk region of the Donbas, then the Russians still need to take two towns/cities: Severodonetsk and Lysychansk
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It sounds like the Russians have just shelled Lysychansk non stop, I’m not sure how much of a town is left to be honest. Severodonetsk is 85% (and that’s pro Ukraine media) controlled by Russians and have also seen a lot of reports about Ukrainian fall backs across the East.
 
GlastonSpur said:
95% control of Luhansk is pretty much what the Russians had nearly 3 weeks ago. You claimed they'd have it all inside 2 weeks from June 4th.
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Russia controlled nowhere close to 95% of Luhansk 3 weeks ago. Are you taking this nonsense from the same place you took the claim that the Russian army would collapse within 2 weeks back in March because its "only tank factory" could no longer service the military? The claim you posted on 3 separate occasions before someone had to step in and tell you that you needed to start looking at the dates of the tweets you were posting?

Christ I can't believe I'm getting bogged down with someone like you. I'm serious, the thread is yours, knock yourself out, you're what's looked for here. Someone who for years has been the laughing stock of this forum for his batshit insane ideas is now the go-to for unimaginably complex geopolitical matters. It's somehow fitting for the world in which we live.
 
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DT12 said:
Russia controlled nowhere close to 95% of Luhansk 3 weeks ago. Are you taking this nonsense from the same place you took the claim that the Russian army would collapse within 2 weeks back in March because its "only tank factory" could no longer service the military? The claim you posted on 3 separate occasions before someone had to step in and tell you that you needed to start looking at the dates of the tweets you were posting?

Christ I can't believe I'm getting bogged down with someone like you. I'm serious, the thread is yours, knock yourself out, you're what's looked for mostly here. Someone who for years has been the laughing stock of this forum for his batshit insane ideas is now the go-to for unimaginably complex geopolitical matters. For what it's worth, it gives me a good laugh.
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3 weeks ago, Russia essentially needed to take Severodonetsk and Lysychansk in order to control all of Luhansk. They still need to take Severodonetsk and Lysychansk.

Deliberate misquoting seems to be your stock-in-trade. I didn't say back in March (or at any other time) that the Russian army would collapse within 2 weeks, but again you seem to think that a tweet from someone else is the same thing as a tweet from me (I don't even have a personal Twitter account).

What I have said is that Russia will not win this war, is well on course to have a shrivelled GDP that will soon be less than that of even Holland, and is suffering massive losses of men and equipment that will take decades to recover from, if it ever does. Russia's future now is essentially that of junior partner to China.
 
GlastonSpur said:
Deliberate misquoting seems to be your stock-in-trade. I didn't say back in March (or at any other time) that the Russian army would collapse within 2 weeks, but again you seem to think that a tweet from someone else is the same thing as a tweet from me (I don't even have a personal Twitter account).
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I have explicitly said that these claims you make are from uncritically-assessed tweets you post. I know they are not your tweets. My point is this: if tomorrow I see a tweet that says "The earth is flat!", I will not retweet that post, because I have the intellectual capacity to know that it is not true, and retweeting it would only contribute to the sum total of stupidity in the world. You however do not have that intellectual capacity, hence all the absolute shite you retweet on here. Hiding behind "It's not my tweet!" doesn't cut it. In this post-truth Trumpian social media world of ours you need to be responsible for what you help propagate (you who claim to be so opposed to the dissemination of nonsense propaganda). If you had any aсtual understanding of this war then you would know not to give the garbage you post on here the unwarranted oxygen of a retweet. You don't, so you don't.
 
I’ve not being following this thread that closely so have to ask: are you Russian Dt12?
If not, are you a supporter of russias invasion of Ukraine?
 
tomaldinho1 said:
Yes, exactly that. Luhansk is essentially occupied, Donetsk under a lot of pressure.

It sounds like the Russians have just shelled Lysychansk non stop, I’m not sure how much of a town is left to be honest. Severodonetsk is 85% (and that’s pro Ukraine media) controlled by Russians and have also seen a lot of reports about Ukrainian fall backs across the East.
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The difference is that Lysychansk is on the other side of the Siverskyi Donets river so it will be much harder for the Russians to storm and take this position. The only way this may occur is if they can complete the encirclement of the Luhansk region but they haven't yet been able to do this. Instead they are massing artillery attacks and pushing Ukrainian forces back in a front on approach. This means that they haven't defeated the Ukrainian army in the field as UKR forces are able to continue to trade space for time in an organized fashion.
 
DT12 said:
I have explicitly said that these claims you make are from uncritically-assessed tweets you post. I know they are not your tweets. My point is this: if tomorrow I see a tweet that says "The earth is flat!", I will not retweet that post, because I have the intellectual capacity to know that it is not true, and retweeting it would only contribute to the sum total of stupidity in the world. You however do not have that intellectual capacity, hence all the absolute shite you retweet on here. Hiding behind "It's not my tweet!" doesn't cut it. In this post-truth Trumpian social media world of ours you need to be responsible for what you help disseminate (you who claim to be so opposed to the propagation of nonsense propaganda). If you had any aсtual understanding of this war then you would know not to give the garbage you post on here the unwarranted oxygen of a retweet. You don't, so you don't.
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You have cited tweets from elsewhere (without quoting them) and then have mis-represented them in order to try and lend credence to your claims - e.g. (as of nearly 3 weeks ago) that the entire Luhansk region will fall inside 2 weeks.

Whereas if I post a reference to a tweet, the actual tweet is included (and not my preferred version of it). Moreover, the particular tweet that I referenced that you seem to be obsessed about came from someone with a lot of followers, which would suggest that their view was at least worthy of consideration, regardless that it later proved to be wrong.

I consider the vast majority of any tweets that I've cited to be relevant, interesting and worthwhile additions to the discussion. If you don't, then too bad ... you can always fall back on comforting Russian propaganda, which, as I recall, claimed that Russian forces had taken Severodonetsk several weeks ago.
 
NotThatSoph said:
I'm not so sure the step is significant, though maybe it is. Given that it's a very long way from candidate to member, and that Ukraine is extremely far from qualifying in normal circumstances, I think it's reasonably likely that this is a purely symbolic gesture. If the EU is prepared to drastically lower criteria for Ukraine specifically then ok, but if not then Ukraine will have to do a lot and if they manage to start that journey they'd presumably gain candidate status on merit anyway along the way. I'm not that familiar with the process, though, so I could be talking nonsense.
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I have to admit I'm going back and forth on this in my head. On the one hand, it's meaningful, as candidate status gives Ukraine and Moldova a credible path to EU membership, while without that status, you've got nothing.

On the other hand, that credible path can be very steep, or otherwise so problematic that it's basically another kind of limbo. (I gave the examples of Turkey and Serbia before.) In which case this is nothing but hollow symbolism.

On the third hand (getting into anatomical issues here), the truly problematic candidate situations are currently either due to opposition (Serbia and Turkey aren't really working on getting closer to membership) or relationships between countries. (North Macedonia was first blocked by Greece, now by Bulgaria; Kosovo's independence isn't recognized by a few countries, etc. - as it happens there was an overview article about exactly this subject in my Dutch newspaper today. :) ) Ukraine and Moldova are both unlikely to get into that kind of situation.

But on yet another hand (sorry, lost count), Ukraine and Moldova have a huge climb ahead of them to meet the membership criteria, and both territorial conflicts (Russia, Transnistria) that won't just go away.

So yeah, lots of ways to look at this. Ultimately, I think I do agree it is largely symbolic - but with a real (if far-off) benefit behind it.
DT12 said:
I have explicitly said that these claims you make are from uncritically-assessed tweets you post. I know they are not your tweets. My point is this: if tomorrow I see a tweet that says "The earth is flat!", I will not retweet that post, because I have the intellectual capacity to know that it is not true, and retweeting it would only contribute to the sum total of stupidity in the world. You however do not have that intellectual capacity, hence all the absolute shite you retweet on here. Hiding behind "It's not my tweet!" doesn't cut it. In this post-truth Trumpian social media world of ours you need to be responsible for what you help propagate (you who claim to be so opposed to the dissemination of nonsense propaganda). If you had any aсtual understanding of this war then you would know not to give the garbage you post on here the unwarranted oxygen of a retweet. You don't, so you don't.
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As I said, I appreciate the perspective you bring to the thread, but I don't get why you have to be so hostile to others. Glaston isn't treating you this way, but you keep making it very ad hominem to him in particular, with all kinds of low blows. If you really can't stand him, just put him on ignore. Otherwise I can easily see you end up with some warnings. (And not because of your views.)
 
Well I will say reading @GlastonSpur earlier tweets you'd think Ukraine was surrounding Moscow but it's tough to follow this war.

I'm always suspicious of media especially in the age of Twitter so I never really believed the Russians were suffering as much losses as proposed. Was hard to imagine an army of that size struggling.

but it turns out that was all true. So for me anyway, the first reports are just not worth getting into and the situation clears after a few weeks usually.
 
DT12 said:
With different terminology it was essentially offered by George W Bush back in 2008 (shortly after Putin's Munich speech), hence this war now.

This guy is not popular in the West now because he veers from the fatuous 'good v evil' Disney narrative, but these 2 minutes and 41 seconds are worth your time:

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Has already been discussed ad nauseam in the Geopolitics thread. The likes of Mearschimer and now Walt, are the bread and butter among Putin apologists, which is not coincidentally why they cite them every 10 minutes.
 
Cheimoon said:
I have to admit I'm going back and forth on this in my head. On the one hand, it's meaningful, as candidate status gives Ukraine and Moldova a credible path to EU membership, while without that status, you've got nothing.

On the other hand, that credible path can be very steep, or otherwise so problematic that it's basically another kind of limbo. (I gave the examples of Turkey and Serbia before.) In which case this is nothing but hollow symbolism.

On the third hand (getting into anatomical issues here), the truly problematic candidate situations are currently either due to opposition (Serbia and Turkey aren't really working on getting closer to membership) or relationships between countries. (North Macedonia was first blocked by Greece, now by Bulgaria; Kosovo's independence isn't recognized by a few countries, etc. - as it happens there was an overview article about exactly this subject in my Dutch newspaper today. :) ) Ukraine and Moldova are both unlikely to get into that kind of situation.

But on yet another hand (sorry, lost count), Ukraine and Moldova have a huge climb ahead of them to meet the membership criteria, and both territorial conflicts (Russia, Transnistria) that won't just go away.

So yeah, lots of ways to look at this. Ultimately, I think I do agree it is largely symbolic - but with a real (if far-off) benefit behind it.
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Four hands, you're a long equation from being mistaken for an economist.
 
DT12 said:
I have explicitly said that these claims you make are from uncritically-assessed tweets you post. I know they are not your tweets. My point is this: if tomorrow I see a tweet that says "The earth is flat!", I will not retweet that post, because I have the intellectual capacity to know that it is not true, and retweeting it would only contribute to the sum total of stupidity in the world. You however do not have that intellectual capacity, hence all the absolute shite you retweet on here. Hiding behind "It's not my tweet!" doesn't cut it. In this post-truth Trumpian social media world of ours you need to be responsible for what you help propagate (you who claim to be so opposed to the dissemination of nonsense propaganda). If you had any aсtual understanding of this war then you would know not to give the garbage you post on here the unwarranted oxygen of a retweet. You don't, so you don't.
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The question is do you?

It is clear from your posts that you are in the defeatist camp. That's fair enough, there are defeatists in every struggle and some times they are right. As to whether you have any particular insight into the war I'm not so sure because defeatists so far have been proven wrong repeatedly in their predictions.

If you want a decent discussion, then it would help if you had the integrity to admit when your predictions prove factually wrong. You did predict defeat in Donbas by the now and it is clear that hasn't happened yet. Whether an eventual Russian success there would prove a wider contention that Ukraine has lost is understandably contentious. I wouldn't predict with any certainty the eventual outcome there or draw the conclusion that such a defeat for Ukraine was game over.

I thought at the start that Ukraine would turn into a bear trap for Russia and it has. The quick win reinstating Russian influence and fracturing the west hasn't happened and Russia is struggling to keep up an offensive capability on a scale that it needs too.

An eventual defeat of Ukrainian forces following a collapse is still possible but much less likely now than at the start of the war.

A collapse of Russian forces has already happened on several fronts. Whether a more general/total collapse is ahead is very difficult to predict because is will only come at the point of exhaustion. If the defeatists were always right then Verdun would be on the Franco German border for example. In wars the aggressor generally gains territory at first. Victory looks certain and the profits of doom abound. Then things change. It is looking like Ukraine is fighting Russia to a stand still. It might be we are in an Iran/Iraq war situation.

Or after stalling in offense and being worn down by attrition and growing Ukrainian capability brought on by western military support, Ukrainians could turn the tables and win back their country.
The people who predicted this war were saying at the time that Russia could sustain a fight for around six months ( longer if they go for general mobilization). Meanwhile we are 4 months into the two week special operation so we will see what we will see.
 
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