Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Gehrman said:
To some extent I agree, but the difference between say Switzerland and Thailand or pick almost any third world country are miles apart.

https://www.transparency.org/en/news/how-cpi-scores-are-calculated
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The difference for more refined, world class corruption you go to top cities like London.

London not only houses the worst of the oligarchs but some of the dirtiest most evil criminals around the world from China, Pakistan and other asian countries. London knows about this but it's billions in revenue that I don't think they want to crack down upon.

At least other countries aren't housing foreign murderers by their own will.
 
Kentonio said:
Crazy the way that even during an airstrike people still instinctively stick to paths.
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It's hard to deviate from our programming. I've tried at times to remind myself that if faced with any extreme situation like an active shooter or a fire, that it becomes perfectly fine to break things like windows, knock large things over, or anything else that gets you out. But I'm sure I'd end up just following paths and looking for doors.
 
MTF said:
It's hard to deviate from our programming. I've tried at times to remind myself that if faced with any extreme situation like an active shooter or a fire, that it becomes perfectly fine to break things like windows, knock large things over, or anything else that gets you out. But I'm sure I'd end up just following paths and looking for doors.
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Yeah, same.
 


Sorry if already posted. Was wondering if anyone had an opinion on this?

My understanding is that Mearsheimer is one of the most knowledgeable figures on this topic. Would that be accurate?
 
GDaly95 said:


Sorry if already posted. Was wondering if anyone had an opinion on this?

My understanding is that Mearsheimer is one of the most knowledgeable figures on this topic. Would that be accurate?
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Was discussed at length in the Geopolitics thread a couple of months ago. Do a search on Mearshimer and they should come up there.
 
calodo2003 said:
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I don't think Russia nor the USSR have any history of a successful amphibious operation as their military successes are generally on land. No shame in saying that they suck at sea; even the mighty Spartans were known to suck at sea in ancient times.
 
GDaly95 said:


Sorry if already posted. Was wondering if anyone had an opinion on this?

My understanding is that Mearsheimer is one of the most knowledgeable figures on this topic. Would that be accurate?
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He's in the vast minority in blaming NATO, as he admits.
 

Germany asking Lithuania to compromise on our sovereignty. This weak muppet is getting seriously on my nerves.
 
4bars said:
Is what propaganda does
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Seems to me he's stuck in the mentality of the Cold War, he says that he still see things in that same way, which is totally typical of older people, being unable to adapt to revolutionary changes. Later in his life Einstein refused to accept certain results in physics, as smart as he was.

Yes, the USSR had a "sphere of influence", but now they're the 11th biggest economy in Europe. Their only hope seems to be threat of nukes, and if counties refuse to negotiate with the terrorist Putin, he'll have to take the land he wants by force.

If he does launch tactical nukes, the US will likely use conventional weapons on Russian forces and cause proportional destruction. I don't see how that helps Putin, unless the horror of it all causes populations to decide to surrender to Russia. Otherwise you get no advantage and escalation leads to mutually assured destruction.

Putin can end the world any time he wants; if he wanted to, you'd think he'd have done it already. Sadly if that's his goal, then that will happen (unless someone in the launch command chain stops him). In the meantime, he seems to be keen to keep the US from intervening, and I think they'll keep from using nukes, as it would likely not play out well.
 
Rajma said:

Germany asking Lithuania to compromise on our sovereignty. This weak muppet is getting seriously on my nerves.
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That is an understatement.

And the folks from the Kremlin really want to deliver goods to Kaliningrad, the maritime option has not been shut (yet) as far as anyone is concerned.
 
Beans said:
Seems to me he's stuck in the mentality of the Cold War, he says that he still see things in that same way, which is totally typical of older people, being unable to adapt to revolutionary changes. Later in his life Einstein refused to accept certain results in physics, as smart as he was.

Yes, the USSR had a "sphere of influence", but now they're the 11th biggest economy in Europe. Their only hope seems to be threat of nukes, and if counties refuse to negotiate with the terrorist Putin, he'll have to take the land he wants by force.

If he does launch tactical nukes, the US will likely use conventional weapons on Russian forces and cause proportional destruction. I don't see how that helps Putin, unless the horror of it all causes populations to decide to surrender to Russia. Otherwise you get no advantage and escalation leads to mutually assured destruction.

Putin can end the world any time he wants; if he wanted to, you'd think he'd have done it already. Sadly if that's his goal, then that will happen (unless someone in the launch command chain stops him). In the meantime, he seems to be keen to keep the US from intervening, and I think they'll keep from using nukes, as it would likely not play out well.
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He hasn't even officially initiated a full scale invasion of the Donbas in Ukraine. He is being very cautious not to touch NATO countries so "ending the world" seems quite the stretch
 
maniak said:
Is there any good reason that guy jumped into the lake? Just panic or is there any advantage to it in case of an explosion?
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By the way, if you’ll ever be in such a situation, unless you’re literally jumping out of the way of falling debree, don’t. It may sound counter-intuitive but being in the water when a blast wave hits is way worse than when it happens on the ground as the displaced mass of water doesn’t really have anywhere to go rather then through you, fecking up your intestines, while on the ground the shockwave loses its power much quicker.

Slowpoke with an unnecessary advice out.
 
Rajma said:

Germany asking Lithuania to compromise on our sovereignty. This weak muppet is getting seriously on my nerves.
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Why is he spending so much time worrying about the nuances of sanction policy and its various effects on parts of Russia when Russia is flat out steeling and blockading Ukrainian grain?

Its madness.

Also, doesn't Boris say the same thing re-NI and the protocol. He isn't helping the EU stance with statements like this.
 
RedDevilQuebecois said:
I don't think Russia nor the USSR have any history of a successful amphibious operation as their military successes are generally on land. No shame in saying that they suck at sea; even the mighty Spartans were known to suck at sea in ancient times.
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Russia's biggest defensive strength is it's shear land size, every time someone invades from the West (Napoleon, Hitler) they just retreat and start a war of attrition making it logistically very difficult for any advancing army to maintain sufficient supply lines.
 
shamans said:
He hasn't even officially initiated a full scale invasion of the Donbas in Ukraine. He is being very cautious not to touch NATO countries so "ending the world" seems quite the stretch
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First part is of course correct, I didn't say otherwise. I agree with the second part, but people are worried about standing up to him because of those nukes, I'm arguing that's not helpful. Without the nukes, there are soldiers from other countries in Ukraine to assist, surely.
 
RedDevilQuebecois said:
I don't think Russia nor the USSR have any history of a successful amphibious operation as their military successes are generally on land. No shame in saying that they suck at sea; even the mighty Spartans were known to suck at sea in ancient times.
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The Black Sea fleet is an immense source of pride to some Russians though, and it has been shown to be not that great at all.
 
Rajma said:

Germany asking Lithuania to compromise on our sovereignty. This weak muppet is getting seriously on my nerves.
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He is not asking you to compromise on your sovereignty, how does that claim make any sense?
 
harms said:
By the way, if you’ll ever be in such a situation, unless you’re literally jumping out of the way of falling debree, don’t. It may sound counter-intuitive but being in the water when a blast wave hits is way worse than when it happens on the ground as the displaced mass of water doesn’t really have anywhere to go rather then through you, fecking up your intestines, while on the ground the shockwave loses its power much quicker.

Slowpoke with an unnecessary advice out.
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Wouldn't it help with suspended shrapnel in the air? Wouldn't the water slow down the speed of it as well? I feel water pressing on you shockwave wouldn't be that much force in a large lake would it?

Also, it's crazy how your instincts kick in. I was once really close to a massive suicide explosion (less than a mile) and it's crazy how I just knew that was a bomb without even looking at it and automatically I went to the floor as fast as possible. I think it's a way for your body to "hide". Maybe that's what the water does too. Give you an illusion you are hiding.
 
shamans said:
Wouldn't it help with suspended shrapnel in the air? Wouldn't the water slow down the speed of it as well? I feel water pressing on you shockwave wouldn't be that much force in a large lake would it?

Also, it's crazy how your instincts kick in. I was once really close to a massive suicide explosion (less than a mile) and it's crazy how I just knew that was a bomb without even looking at it and automatically I went to the floor as fast as possible. I think it's a way for your body to "hide". Maybe that's what the water does too. Give you an illusion you are hiding.
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It would help slow down debris if you managed to dive in deep enough, but you’d have to be quick. The water itself wouldn’t slow a shockwave down but the phase change between air/land and water would diffuse it, so the bit about your lungs exploding would mainly apply to an explosion that took place in the body of water where you were already submerged. The chances of seeing an impending explosion and jumping into water fast enough for the shockwave to destroy your organs are quite low.

Sorry if this is a derailment, but since it’s life or death advice and the thread isn’t moving so fast these days… :cool:
 
Carolina Red said:
Country A telling Country B what to do within Country B’s own borders.

Where’s the compromise of sovereignty there? /sarcasm
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He's not giving an order. He's not comprising their self-determination.
 
Carolina Red said:
Country A telling Country B what to do within Country B’s own borders.

Where’s the compromise of sovereignty there? /sarcasm
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It's a bit more complicated than this. If Lithuania was imposing their own sanctions on Russia/Kaliningrad it would be their own policies, and nobody can say anything about it. Here, they say it is about applying EU sanctions to Kaliningrad, which is a rather specific interpretation of these sanctions. And it is exposing all of the EU to some kind of retaliation from Russia. If Lithuania wants to impose a blockade on Kaliningrad on behalf of the EU, the rest of the EU has to agree on it first.
 
Pintu said:
It's a bit more complicated than this. If Lithuania was imposing their own sanctions on Russia/Kaliningrad it would be their own policies, and nobody can say anything about it. Here, they say it is about applying EU sanctions to Kaliningrad, which is a rather specific interpretation of these sanctions. And it is exposing all of the EU to some kind of retaliation from Russia. If Lithuania wants to impose a blockade on Kaliningrad on behalf of the EU, the rest of the EU has to agree on it first.
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Can the EU force them to open their borders to an unfriendly non-EU country?
 
Carolina Red said:
Can the EU force them to open their borders to an unfriendly non-EU country?
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Technically no, but still the external borders are EU borders and the sovereignty over these borders is de facto a collective one. Frontex runs on a €500 Million budget in order to help the member states manage their external borders.

Still, I think it is a smart move by Lithuania. It puts Kaliningrad on the agenda and forces EU states to take a position on it. Public opinion is not against putting more pressure on Russia.
 
Pintu said:
Technically no, but still the external borders are EU borders and the sovereignty over these borders is de facto a collective one. Frontex runs on a €500 Million budget in order to help the member states manage their external borders.

Still, I think it is a smart move by Lithuania. It puts Kaliningrad on the agenda and forces EU states to take a position on it. Public opinion is not against putting more pressure on Russia.
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They're not EU borders FFS, they're Lithuanian. If an individual nation wants to close their border to non-EU citizens or goods (believing they're complying with EC sanctions let's not forget) they are, and always have been, perfectly within their rights to do so.
 
TwoSheds said:
They're not EU borders FFS, they're Lithuanian.
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They are both (Schengen borders code).

If an individual nation wants to close their border to non-EU citizens or goods (believing they're complying with EC sanctions let's not forget) they are, and always have been, perfectly within their rights to do so.
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That's probably true. I didn't dispute it, I'm saying what they believe isn't necessarily what other countries believe to be the correct interpretation of these sanctions.
 
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