Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Winter will be extremely advantageous for the Kherson region imo. If the Rusky soldats think its bad now, wait till the cold bites in and they have no winter uniforms, food or water.

Added to that, the rock hard frozen flat terrain means Ukraine armored vehicles don't have to stick to main roads anymore.
 
How does the time factor weigh in all this?

On one hand, Russia is coming apart at the seams. Sanctions are going to reach a crunch point eventually. But time also gives them time to start fixing some of the issues they've struggled with and get their weapons industry back in gear. Can they produce fast enough to keep up six months from now? Will they reach a point where competence starts floating to the top, as the corrupt and incompetent basically fail and die? At what point does the mobilization become more than just cannon fodder?

For Ukraine, I imagine they only improve over time with training and military capacity.
 
B20 said:
Not much talked about, but my lay instincts reckon this is a very significant factor in all this.

What we've learned from the very start of this conflict is that US intelligence here is superb. Not just in terms of mapping, but also their ability to intercept russian communications at virtually all levels. They are playing a completely different game than the rest.
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US intelligence is top notch, but on the operational level a lot of the targets are sourced from partisans and civilians in occupied territories as they provide a lot of real-time data by taking pictures, etc. on russian positions.
 
VorZakone said:
Including men from Moscow and St Petersburg?
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Yeah. And the supposed number of 300k isn't actually written anywhere — only in Shoigyu's words, which obviously can't be trusted.
 
harms said:
Yeah. And the supposed number of 300k isn't actually written anywhere — only in Shoigyu's words, which obviously can't be trusted.
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Personally think it's "partial" because they physically can't run a full mobilisation. Looks better having an open ended "partial" mob than a full one that is only 1/3 achievable.
 
harms said:
There's already no limit on current mobilization, it's "partial" in the same way that this war is a "special military operation".
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Harms, sorry if you've already been asked (and the rest of the Russians in the thread) but are you a candidate to be movilised?
 
B20 said:
How does the time factor weigh in all this?

On one hand, Russia is coming apart at the seams. Sanctions are going to reach a crunch point eventually. But time also gives them time to start fixing some of the issues they've struggled with and get their weapons industry back in gear. Can they produce fast enough to keep up six months from now? Will they reach a point where competence starts floating to the top, as the corrupt and incompetent basically fail and die? At what point does the mobilization become more than just cannon fodder?

For Ukraine, I imagine they only improve over time with training and military capacity.
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Yeah, what have been slowly deteriorating for years or even decades isn't going to be fixed in a couple of months — especially with the most complicated components of modern warfare (microprocessors and other similar stuff) being unavailable to them due to the sanctions.

Same for the general competence over incompetence — the entire system that Putin was building for 2 decades is built on nepotism and corruption. Fixing it will take drastic reforms and full focus of motivated government apparatus. Russian one is currently rushing towards an abyss at full speed.

edit: and then there's obviously the brain drain.
 
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carvajal said:
Harms, sorry if you've already been asked (and the rest of the Russians in the thread) but are you a candidate to be movilised?
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Not unless they change the laws again, my health category excuses me from any military service altogether (thank feck).
 
B20 said:
How does the time factor weigh in all this?

On one hand, Russia is coming apart at the seams. Sanctions are going to reach a crunch point eventually. But time also gives them time to start fixing some of the issues they've struggled with and get their weapons industry back in gear. Can they produce fast enough to keep up six months from now? Will they reach a point where competence starts floating to the top, as the corrupt and incompetent basically fail and die? At what point does the mobilization become more than just cannon fodder?

For Ukraine, I imagine they only improve over time with training and military capacity.
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Time is against Russia. They won't be able to improve their weapons industry much, and there won't be any competence left after lots of the smarter men left the country already.
 
Beans said:
Would you if you went through what he's gone through? I might be wrong, but you might be inspired to do what you can to speed the recovery process, assuming there is one.

If Russia gets pushed back to their border i expect they'll continue to try to get back in for as long as Putin lives. It would prevent Ukraine from joining the EU at least.
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To be honest, i think he should be president at the beginning of the recovery using the gravitas collected in the conflict and thats it.

IMHO, i believe that the skills for leading at war not always works for day to day politics but more important, his extreme high popularity due to this extreme unique event would make him make mistakes and no one would opose him when something would go wrong because he would be an alive historical figure equaly to churchill for ukranians
 
harms said:
There's already no limit on current mobilization, it's "partial" in the same way that this war is a "special military operation".
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I have read the same thing.

Zeihan's comment on the mobilization is that Russia is already struggling with the logistics of supplying their current forces, and that logistics will be the limiting factor in how effective they are. He sees these new troops as essentially untrained and poorly armed, and unable to stop Ukrainian advances in the short term. How does that sound to you?

A big unknown is what percentage of Russian equipment is actually functional.

4bars said:
To be honest, i think he should be president at the beginning of the recovery using the gravitas collected in the conflict and thats it.

IMHO, i believe that the skills for leading at war not always works for day to day politics but more important, his extreme high popularity due to this extreme unique event would make him make mistakes and no one would opose him when something would go wrong because he would be an alive historical figure equaly to churchill for ukranians
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Yes, his goodwill would emphatically lubricate the political process and help draw investment as they'll see him as a stable leader. If he does make mistakes people will be happy to sweep them under the carpet.

It's worth mentioning he was unpopular before the war, I know nothing about all that, perhaps a seed of doubt could be planted from those struggles. But I'm hopeful, the world badly needs authentic leaders who will actually represent their voters instead of their donors.
 
Beans said:
I have read the same thing.

Zeihan's comment on the mobilization is that Russia is already struggling with the logistics of supplying their current forces, and that logistics will be the limiting factor in how effective they are. He sees these new troops as essentially untrained and poorly armed, and unable to stop Ukrainian advances in the short term.

A big unknown is what percentage of Russian equipment is actually functional. I saw a tweet supposedly from a mechanic calling for Russia to shut down their air force as their inability to get parts had prevented necessary
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Yeah, I was replying to the idea that Putin won't dare to enforce full mobilization — he already did, he just calls it differently (a policy that had worked well for him so far).
He'll get the manpower but whenever it's going to transfer into any military success is a huge, huge question.
 
Beans said:
Which geographical hurdles are those? Rivers? It’s pretty flat and open in eastern Ukraine as I understand it.

One Ukraine military leader said that progress would be mostly halted by winter.
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Or it could go pretty fast, the Ukrainian army is more than likely going to be kitted out in proper winter gear, the Russian will be frozen sitting ducks, with military vehicles that went cheap on winter tiers.
 
harms said:
Yeah, I was replying to the idea that Putin won't dare to enforce full mobilization — he already did, he just calls it differently (a policy that had worked well for him so far).
He'll get the manpower but whenever it's going to transfer into any military success is a huge, huge question.
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Sorry I forgot that incomplete response was still in the box when I responded to the other comment, I've edited it slightly, I couldn't find that tweet about the mechanic.
 
B20 said:
Not much talked about, but my lay instincts reckon this is a very significant factor in all this.

What we've learned from the very start of this conflict is that US intelligence here is superb. Not just in terms of mapping, but also their ability to intercept russian communications at virtually all levels. They are playing a completely different game than the rest.
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I think that the recon/intel support provided by OTAN (mainly the US) is almost as important as the weapons that are sent. Western spy satellite are way, way more efficient than russians' and that's only the "known" technologies. The ukrainian army seems to know exactly where to go and where russian weak spots are. I'm almost certain that NATO can pretty much account for any important troop movement on the ground. Spy satellites coupled with IA could do that (on top of com interception).
 
LARulz said:
But can he retreat and keep power? They'd be in a worse position than before no matter what and surely his close circle won't accept that because they'd have done it all for nothing in their eyes

Full mobilization would cause chaos and a nuke I still think is just a no go as I can't see whatever the chain is, all agreeing
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I think so, Putin doesn't need public opinion, he has demonstrated complete control. He can tell the people whatever the feck he wants, broadcast it 24/7 and follow the usual playbook for dissenters.
 
What do Russians in small cities think about all this? This video is enlightening. My take is that the situation in Russia is basically hopeless. Yes, Putin may fall, but sooner or later someone like Putin (or worse) will again take power.

 
frostbite said:
What do Russians in small cities think about all this? This video is enlightening. My take is that the situation in Russia is basically hopeless. Yes, Putin may fall, but sooner or later someone like Putin (or worse) will again take power.

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Situation is hopeless. Even the "opposition" are imperialists, it's just in their DNA.

 
Such a contrast of small cities to Moscow... (and I mean you can find a few reasonable people in Moscow ... not many, just a few)

 
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I dont know anything about military topic. I mean nothing at all. And i read around hete that the Kherson front is the better defended for russian army and thats why the eastern front experience more gains. But would be better to focus on kherson/western front? I mean, as much as they advance east, RA can always fold to R territory and attack back. While western, if the push southwest, they can not be outflanked on they northwest side. Or is the tactic to go south with the longest front posible to outstrechetch the R defenses instead of bottling west to east?
 
frostbite said:
What do Russians in small cities think about all this? This video is enlightening. My take is that the situation in Russia is basically hopeless. Yes, Putin may fall, but sooner or later someone like Putin (or worse) will again take power.

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Very sad, all people who's children and grand children will be killed over in the Ukraine. Utterly brainwashed and too stubborn to question the news they receive. I feel the same frustration watching that video as I did watching videos of people explaining why they voted Brexit. Sigh. We just have to hope that the internet generations are wiser when they grow older.
 
4bars said:
I dont know anything about military topic. I mean nothing at all. And i read around hete that the Kherson front is the better defended for russian army and thats why the eastern front experience more gains. But would be better to focus on kherson/western front? I mean, as much as they advance east, RA can always fold to R territory and attack back. While western, if the push southwest, they can not be outflanked on they northwest side. Or is the tactic to go south with the longest front posible to outstrechetch the R defenses instead of bottling west to east?
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If Ukraine takes back Kherson, they took back Kherson and open the road to Crimea. If Ukraine takes back the East down to the coast, they can cut off Crimea (and Kherson). So a win in the East makes it easier to win the Southwest.
 
4bars said:
I dont know anything about military topic. I mean nothing at all. And i read around hete that the Kherson front is the better defended for russian army and thats why the eastern front experience more gains. But would be better to focus on kherson/western front? I mean, as much as they advance east, RA can always fold to R territory and attack back. While western, if the push southwest, they can not be outflanked on they northwest side. Or is the tactic to go south with the longest front posible to outstrechetch the R defenses instead of bottling west to east?
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If you can cut off half their professional army in the west then you'll absolutely smash their ability to come back at you in future years as they'll have lost vast numbers of men and amounts of equipment. A routed disorganised army in Russia trying to sally over a well defended border region might not have much luck even if a lot of the Ukrainians are actually fighting over nearer to Kherson.
 
stefan92 said:
If Ukraine takes back Kherson, they took back Kherson and open the road to Crimea. If Ukraine takes back the East down to the coast, they can cut off Crimea (and Kherson). So a win in the East makes it easier to win the Southwest.
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But lets say, once cut off as UA reach mariupol, couldnt russia attack from middlish section east from russia territory and from melitopol front and pocket the south eastern U front?

RA has a massive advantadge that UA wikl not enter into russian territory
 
4bars said:
But lets say, once cut off as UA reach mariupol, couldnt russia attack from middlish section east from russia territory and from melitopol front and pocket the south eastern U front?

RA has a massive advantadge that UA wikl not enter into russian territory
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Sure Russia could, but the question is - using which kind of army? If Russia was able to push forward they could do so from the current front, which is just parallel to the border. But they can't, they are retreating. So it's not likely that they will push from that direction, and even if they do they only have recruits left with very little experience and training and very little appropriate equipment. The strong army units already are in Ukraine and trapping them means they can't attack again soon.
 
stefan92 said:
Sure Russia could, but the question is - using which kind of army? If Russia was able to push forward they could do so from the current front, which is just parallel to the border. But they can't, they are retreating. So it's not likely that they will push from that direction, and even if they do they only have recruits left with very little experience and training and very little appropriate equipment. The strong army units already are in Ukraine and trapping them means they can't attack again soon.
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Lots of if, but whatever do must be the correct thing to do as more than probable they have the best intel and strategies possible with US and europe backing them up
 
If what I’m hearing is accurate, the electoral commission from AFU might soon be in Kherson to examine the votes.
 
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