Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Currently there seem to be developments in two areas.

More solid are reports about a Ukrainian assault on the Svatove/Kreminna front line (continuation of the Izyum/Lyman operations). It looks like that front might collapse soon (rather days than weeks), Russian telegram channels already reached the "Don't panic" stage in their reporting about that area.

Much more doubtful are reports from the Kherson area.
414fea1f70120889.png
It seems reasonable to assume that Ukraine took Kinburn peninsula by an amphibious assault (the left green circle), which is a difficult area for heavy equipment. But there are some reports that they moved quite a long way to the east and took villages there (the smaller green circles). If that should be true (which I doubt) it would mean that they already took a huge part of the left bank of the river, just days after the huge Russian retreat happened exactly there. Where are the Russians? Why should a small amphibious assault unit be able to perform such a large operation? At the moment I believe this to be just rumours and wishful thinking.

If true, perhaps Russia aren't putting any of their elite troops or equipment anywhere near the front lines where HIMARs can strike. Perhaps they thought they'd guard it with only cannon fodder. Essentially any push forward will be made with the Ukrainians knowing who and what is their to defend the regained territory.

I still don't truely understand how they plan on defending it though. How do they get heavy equipment to that locaion?
 
Whilst we want that to be the case, I feel that Russia will pay nothing when it’s all said and done.

It depends if legally Russian foreign assets can be diverted to Ukraine or not. If Oligarch assets could be diverted to Ukraine, that would be pretty big and effective.
 
The Russians have zero appetite for this war, makes situations like this almost inevitable.
Mark Hertling some months ago said, for an army to be successful, the soldiers must have a sense of purpose, right or wrong. You can't have soldiers thinking why the feck they are there.
 
Mark Hertling some months ago said, for an army to be successful, the soldiers must have a sense of purpose, right or wrong. You can't have soldiers thinking why the feck they are there.

Aye, even in Vietnam there was some great constant brain washing of good vs. commies, but ultimately even that wasn’t enough.
Doesn’t feel like Putin has managed the propaganda campaign even remotely well enough to convince these Russians that it’s a war worth fighting.
 
Mark Hertling some months ago said, for an army to be successful, the soldiers must have a sense of purpose, right or wrong. You can't have soldiers thinking why the feck they are there.
Also clear objectives are important, what exactly are the aims of Russian commanders as it stands they couldn’t tell you themselves let alone convey those with any sense of purpose to those on the frontlines.
 
I know it's not supposed to be funny but it does look like a stormtrooper fight.

You're not wrong, the way that mad bastard leading the charge spins round frantically trying to find the grenade just thrown at him, before jumping out the way just in time :lol: Absolute Cajones on that guy.
 
Air sirens all over Ukraine, a massive barrage of missiles expected from the sea.
Apparently again only from the Caspian Sea. Looks like the Black Sea Fleet is still out of action, the last attack on Sevastopol appears like a massive strategic success.
 
Some at least are reaching targets :/ residential buildings in Kyiv hit, power station in Mykolaiv.
 
What does this say about Putin that he launches sustained missile attacks on Ukrainian cities whilst refusing to attend the G20 but having Lavrov blame the west in another mad rant at the G20 on his behalf?

This is going to get worse. Russia's total defeat is necessary. Or Putin needs to be assasinated.
 
Is scary out there!


Sad that these guys had to go down like this, especially as many of them are probably in Ukraine against their own will. On the other hand, completely unexpected given that the Ukrainians are defending the existence of their own country.
 
What does this say about Putin that he launches sustained missile attacks on Ukrainian cities whilst refusing to attend the G20 but having Lavrov blame the west in another mad rant at the G20 on his behalf?

This is going to get worse. Russia's total defeat is necessary. Or Putin needs to be assasinated.

I think the Western strategy is to simply weaken Putin from within by getting Ukraine to win the war. Its a much cleaner and sane way to get rid of Putin without actually going to war with Russia.
 
I think the Western strategy is to simply weaken Putin from within by getting Ukraine to win the war. Its a much cleaner and sane way to get rid of Putin without actually going to war with Russia.
However, there will be almost no intact Ukrainian cities left soon - the number of casualties, especially civilian, on Ukraine's side will start to become a number so high that it will become a driver for more decisive action.
 
However, there will be almost no intact Ukrainian cities left soon - the number of casualties, especially civilian, on Ukraine's side will start to become a number so high that it will become a driver for more decisive action.

Most Ukrainian cities other than those in Donbas plus Mariupol have come out of this relatively fine. Kyiv has gotten hit at times, but is still in good shape. Ditto with Lviv. Odesa has barely been touched at all. Once the war is over, all of them will be rebuilt with more modern buildings (as compared to Soviet holdover infrastructure of the present).
 
What does this say about Putin that he launches sustained missile attacks on Ukrainian cities whilst refusing to attend the G20 but having Lavrov blame the west in another mad rant at the G20 on his behalf?

This is going to get worse. Russia's total defeat is necessary. Or Putin needs to be assasinated.
Putin might be the rule / leader, but I think they have enough men who think like him so the regime would continue with a new leader.

I'm not saying I think WWIII will happen or to totally defeat Russia by the way, just that I don't think getting rid of Putin would solve the problem the west has with Russia and their current government
 
The fact that these soldiers don't immediately hit the ground when the first guy is hit, tells me that they are very poorly trained.
The fact they group into a tight pack is mental.
 
The fact that these soldiers don't immediately hit the ground when the first guy is hit, tells me that they are very poorly trained.

Its all at night. That and surprise factor probably hit them hard. However it all looks very amateurish. Once you suspect there is a sniper you gotta hit the ground or get out ASAP.
 
I fear the most difficult times for the civilians are yet to come. Energy infrastructure is already critically damaged in some parts and with temperatures starting to drop below 0, it will be a real challenge.

 
I fear the most difficult times for the civilians are yet to come. Energy infrastructure is already critically damaged in some parts and with temperatures starting to drop below 0, it will be a real challenge.


Apparently, it’s not over as Iranian drones have just been launched too going towards the Ukraine.
 
I don’t understand why United States and EU have not officially recognized Russia as a terrorist state/organization yet? What else they need to see to make sure? What the heck. I’m raging here.
 
I don’t understand why United States and EU have not officially recognized Russia as a terrorist state/organization yet? What else they need to see to make sure? What the heck. I’m raging here.

I agree with this.
 
I fear the most difficult times for the civilians are yet to come. Energy infrastructure is already critically damaged in some parts and with temperatures starting to drop below 0, it will be a real challenge.


Russia should have waited for the seriously cold weather to hit power supplies. They might have given Ukraine chance to repair some before it comes. I'm assuming a limited supply of cruise missiles though, I suppose.