Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Zippy20 said:
First they don't even send in a large proportion of the forces they amassed at the border, but a lot of new recruits with old equipment, then they apparently let them do some risky operations, that mostly seem to fail.
This doesn't make any sense at all to me, especially as every analyst stresses that time matters and they need to win quickly...someone who has gone 'full tonto' would probably just send in the best soldiers and equipment he has to cause as much destruction as possible, no?
I'm still not convinced that this war isn't just some weird kind of negotiation tactic for Putin.
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What's the upside of this type of negotiation tactic?
 
Ukrainian people should be very proud of themselves. If they are able to hold the city centre of Kiev one more day it turns into a totally different war than Russia expected, and the Russian army will gradually loose power on the ground because of vulnerable logistics.

Even If Russia is able to go all the way in Kiev, they will struggle to secure their own forces and consolidate if the Ukrainian people decide to continue their fight in the streets; guerrilla warfare. Russia will never be able to control Ukraine if the Ukrainian stand together and continue fighting. Europe and US will guarantee support with weapons and money.

If Russia starts really really heavy bombing (by airplanes) causing a lot of civilian damage and death, I think it’s a fair chance NATO will consider to secure Ukrainian airspace.

The best Russia can achieve in this war is that Ukraine emits some territory in eastern Ukraine. Everything else is a dead end for Russia, and they’ll realise it very soon.

I think Ukraine should consider to “exchange” the troublesome territory in the east against Russian withdrawal. Ukraine will anyway have achieved a lot and benefit in the longer run, and Russia can pretend they achieved what they wanted.

Ukraine can then continue to move towards Europe and be part of the European family without worrying about Russia. Russia is check mate.
 
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The sooner people realize Putin isn't some evil genius the better. He's just evil.

I think it's entirely plausible that he and his inner circle believe their own propaganda, wouldn't be the first dictator to do so. Maybe he really thought he could just send his troops in and they would be welcomed or only opposed in a lethargic manner. It wouldn't be the first time a Russian head of state miscalculated badly.
 
UncleBob said:
What's the upside of this type of negotiation tactic?
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No idea...maybe he seriously miscalculated the response from everyone and thought that it would cause more division in NATO? Just something feels off about how the Russians go about this.
 
Jippy said:
OK, fair enough, I was just viewing you as a British poster and didn't realise your ties to Ukraine through for your wife and son. I can appreciate now why you have such strong feelings on this and obviously the citizenship question for your son must've been very difficult.

My issues were twofold- there are clearly plenty of keyboard warriors willing to condemn Ukrainians to death by insisting they fight or are cowards. Whether they'd stand up and fight is a very different question.

The other is my loathing of the British government and it's institutions and the prospect of dying in their name, say defending the Royal family. Clearly framed through the lens of defending your home and family is different and I get that.

I've also just moved country and don't feel such strong ties to my new home yet and am not a proper citizen either (eg I can't buy property here).
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Yes, I hear you. I’m quite disillusioned with being British in recent years post-Brexit vote. The start of the pandemic gave me a real sense of civic duty again though, but that quickly became eroded by our government and Royal Family etc.

I don’t know how I would feel about dying to defend Britain now, but at the start of the pandemic, I very quickly felt compelled to do something and still haven’t gone back to my day job, still working on contract tracing and vaccine logistics. So maybe that call would be there should the ultimate happen? I don’t know.

Right now, I am just living with guilt about feeling powerless to help Ukraine here. I’m not sure what I can do.

Edit: typo
 
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Jippy said:
OK, fair enough, I was just viewing you as a British poster and didn't realise your ties to Ukraine through for your wife and son. I can appreciate now why you have such strong feelings on this and obviously the citizenship question for your son must've been very difficult.

My issues were twofold- there are clearly plenty of keyboard warriors willing to condemn Ukrainians to death by insisting they fight or are cowards. Whether they'd stand up and fight is a very different question.

The other is my loathing of the British government and it's institutions and the prospect of dying in their name, say defending the Royal family. Clearly framed through the lens of defending your home and family is different and I get that.

I've also just moved country and don't feel such strong ties to my new home yet and am not a proper citizen either (eg I can't buy property here).
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I think the question of what people would do if they were faced with an invasion is on a lot of people’s minds at the moment. Personally I’ve no real patriotic feelings towards the British government but instinctively I feel like I’d have to defend my country if it came down to it.
 
fergieisold said:
I think the question of what people would do if they were faced with an invasion is on a lot of people’s minds at the moment. Personally I’ve no real patriotic feelings towards the British government but instinctively I feel like I’d have to defend my country if it came down to it.
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At that point the government is just a tool to defend your home, family etc. Unless I was oppressed somewhere I'd always fight for that too.
 
Zippy20 said:
No idea...maybe he seriously miscalculated the response from everyone and thought that it would cause more division in NATO? Just something feels off about how the Russians go about this.
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Still wouldn't explain the use of old equipment/inexperienced personnel. I'm sure Russia knows Ukraine wouldn't be a walkover for fresh recruits and some Russian military personnel have even mentioned they're in Ukraine for Military training.

Unless he wants his main army prepared in case of a response from Nato.
 
the_cliff said:
Still wouldn't explain the use of old equipment/inexperienced personnel. I'm sure Russia knows Ukraine wouldn't be a walkover for fresh recruits and some Russian military personnel have even mentioned they're in Ukraine for Military training.

Unless he wants his main army prepared in case of a response from Nato.
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It's Russia. Are we certain the post USSR stuff actually works outside of dick swinging parades?

Edit: On the other hand if he really wanted to escalate this to more countries it would kind of make sense not to use the best stuff on the weakest country first.
 
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Zippy20 said:
No idea...maybe he seriously miscalculated the response from everyone and thought that it would cause more division in NATO? Just something feels off about how the Russians go about this.
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From a logical point of view, everything seems off. If you view it on the basis of Putins own comments, then it makes sense.
 
Polar said:
Ukrainian people should be very proud of themselves. If they are able to hold the city centre of Kiev one day more it turns into a totally different war than Russia expected, and the Russian army will gradually loose power on the ground because of vulnerable logistics.

Even If Russia is able to go all the way in Kiev, they will struggle to secure their own forces and consolidate if the Ukrainian people decide to continue their fight in the streets; guerrilla warfare. Russia will never be able to control Ukraine if the Ukrainian stand together and continue fighting. Europe and US will guarantee support with weapons and money.

If Russia starts really really heavy bombing (by airplanes) causing a lot of civilian damage and death, I think it’s a fair chance NATO will consider to secure Ukrainian airspace.

The best Russia can achieve in this war is that Ukraine emits some territory in eastern Ukraine. Everything else is a dead end for Russia, and they’ll realise it very soon.

I think Ukraine should consider to “exchange” the troublesome territory in the east against Russian withdrawal. Ukraine will anyway have achieved a lot and benefit in the longer run, and Russia can pretend they achieved what they wanted.

Ukraine can then continue to move towards Europe and be part of the European family without worrying about Russia. Russia is check mate.
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Russia have the military power to drag this with months, make no mistake. NATO will not intervene with direct combat as it will trigger a direct war so securing the airspace is not that probable at the moment.

To me looks like Putin is not going full pelt yet probably to limit the casualties otherwise with the current era of social networks it will have a huge echo everywhere. I doubt he himself thought he will capture Kyiv in two days. I mean sure, Ukraine has 1/10 of the military power of Russia, but it's still a 50m country, so it always would've been hard.

Ukrainians dragging this is the best it could happen(yes I know all the casualties involved but it's inevitable) as it might spark some internal conflict in Russia as well as Putin spending more and more resources in the war.

Melitopol falling last night is a problem as it gives them almost full control over Sea of Azov the the ability to launch attacks through the sea.
 
TMDaines said:
You can mock me all you want, but this is a serious point. A lot of people move around the world acquiring citizenship as they do, but then are affronted by the notion that they may be bound to perform a service for that country one day. It’s bad enough in the UK how many people act like it is a complete affront to perform jury service. We have already seen cases this week of Brazilian footballers who acquired Ukrainian citizenship to play for the national team now shocked that they aren’t allowed to leave the country when there is a full-scale invasion. What were they expecting? This is what acquiring citizenship ultimately means.

On a personal level, my wife is now a Ukrainian and British dual national, and so is our son. One of the reasons we had a slight hesitation to get Ukrainian citizenship for him is because we knew exactly this could happen one day. Ukraine and Russia have been on the precipice of a full-scale for eight years and we had no doubt that he would be in scope of possible national service and conscription should the time come. That’s ultimately a decision he will have to make as an adult.
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Its a good point, any one who has had family born in other countries / has spent time outside Britain understands this. My brother was born in Germany and would have had to have done national service (back in the day) if we hadn't registered him as British. My wife's brother had to do national service in South Africa as a condition of being naturalized. We don't ever really think about what obligations to the state might come with British citizenship, but they are potentially always there.
 
Abizzz said:
Edit: On the other hand if he really wanted to escalate this to more countries it would kind of make sense not to use the best stuff on the weakest country first.
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Ukraine is not weak. It's well militarized and engaging in a war with Russia is pretty big thing for the entire population. I mean there are many civilians that would gladly sign up to defend their country.
 
Enigma_87 said:
Russia have the military power to drag this with months, make no mistake. NATO will not intervene with direct combat as it will trigger a direct war so securing the airspace is not that probable at the moment.
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The last thing Russia would want to do is have this last for months. Conversely the one thing the West wants to do is make it last months. The longer it goes on, the weaker Russia gets and the better the chance there is of destabilizing Putin. That's why the next few days are crucial and I think the Russian response could get very aggressive.
 
Enigma_87 said:
Ukraine is not weak. It's well militarized and engaging in a war with Russia is pretty big thing for the entire population. I mean there are many civilians that would gladly sign up to defend their country.
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That's not how I meant it. I meant it relatively compared to say, Turkey, France or the UK.

I have huge respect for every Ukranian opposing him and hope we in the west do more to support them before it's too late.
 
ooeat0meoo said:
Maybe it's worth having a discussion about NATO because beyond Putin's theater of the absurd, there are lots of misguided people focused on the boogieman NATO.

Here's the history of NATO aggression, Kosovo in 1999, Afghanistan in 2001, and Libya in 2011. These were actions mostly justified due to major terror situations that had to be addressed. Am I missing anything? Now, I'm not trying to counter the Putin rhetoric which is complete nonsense. The west never even considered invading Russia, ever. I feel it's important to figure out how to respond to the kooky anti-war folks that lack a substantive argument against NATO. - Maybe it's best to set aside the nuclear weapons aspect in this exchange of ideas

I just don't see the mainstream media dealing with this issue.

Yeah, NATO members who participated in Afghanistan and Iraq committed blatant war crimes as were exposed by the 100,000's of Wikileaks files, but NATO's conduct in Europe and in particular Ukraine seems to be poised to simply prevent conflict.

It's worth repeating, for most of us it's common sense, but not for everyone.
Example: More than 50% of US Republicans polled favor Putin over Biden, which is incredibly insane.
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The war in Libya justified? How? a country where you have almost the entire nation above the line of poverty and turning it to remanents of a country!
 
Enigma_87 said:
Russia have the military power to drag this with months,
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You are very likely wrong here mate. They neither have economy nor smooth logistics enough to keep it up as now for months. They can of course be desperate and step up bombardements from distance, but I’m not 100% sure the international society will sit still and watch a maniac destroy a country and massacre civilians. So I think Putin depend a lot on ground forces doing their job, but in my opinion ground forces wouldn’t win this war as long as Ukrainians have the will to fight.
 
nickm said:
The last thing Russia would want to do is have this last for months. Conversely the one thing the West wants to do is make it last months. The longer it goes on, the weaker Russia gets and the better the chance there is of destabilizing Putin. That's why the next few days are crucial and I think the Russian response could get very aggressive.
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Yeah I agree. My point is I doubt that Putin expected Ukraine to fall within 2 days as per other reports. Dragging this for weeks and months doesn't work in his favor but I doubt his expectations would be to get it done for couple of days. Besides even if Kyiv falls tonight there will be many guerilla movements throughout the country. Ukrainians don't like him, especially in the West so even if he captures the major cities this will drag on for months for sure, especially if he decides to move to Lviv.
 


Tweet from Polish FA president

Rough translation:

Enough with the words, time for action! Due to Russian's escalation of agression on Ukraine Polish national football team are not intended to play against Russia in World Cup playoffs. This is the only correct decision. We are in talks with Swedish and Czech FA to present common view to FIFA.
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matys said:


Tweet from Polish FA president

Rough translation:
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Fantastic stance from the Polish team. I hope all other national teams from UEFA refuse to play the WC playoffs should the Polish team suffer from this stance, and those already in the World Cup stand with them.
 
Russian propaganda still claiming they're not hitting civilian buildings. Just like how they never targeted hospitals in Syria.
 
UncleBob said:
And everyone knows what happened after.

Looks like Russia is going for high risk high reward. Perhaps wanting to show how easy it is to take Ukraine, or perhaps it's concerns about consequences if this isn't sorted out quickly.
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Do you mean another bloody war, rise of terrorism etc.? I’m trying to get your point.
 
Polar said:
You are very likely wrong here mate. They neither have economy nor smooth logistics enough to keep it up as now for months. They can of course be desperate and step up bombardements from distance, but I’m not 100% sure the international society will sit still and watch a maniac destroy a country and massacre civilians. So I think Putin depend a lot on ground forces doing their job, but in my opinion ground forces wouldn’t win this war as long as Ukrainians have the will to fight.
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They have huge gold reserve, little foreign debt (compared to USA for example) and the allies to surround Ukraine (Belarus mainly). He can launch attacks from all sides and controls the sea as well.

He can always hold and launch attacks from air and sea whilst all major cities are paralyzed.

International society will not intervene military as it risks an open war and many countries have indicated this so far. He can divert resources to East(mainly China) and still maintain the war. I mean it's not really black and white.

Make no mistake, he has prepared for this for 8 years - well enough to prepare for whatever sanctions are imposed and also have both the financial and military resources to pull it off.
 
Polar said:
You are very likely wrong here mate. They neither have economy nor smooth logistics enough to keep it up as now for months. They can of course be desperate and step up bombardements from distance, but I’m not 100% sure the international society will sit still and watch a maniac destroy a country and massacre civilians. So I think Putin depend a lot on ground forces doing their job, but in my opinion ground forces wouldn’t win this war as long as Ukrainians have the will to fight.
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You underestimate the callousnes of the international community. These same NATO and co who encourage Ukraine to disarm its nuclear arsenal Iin exchange for defing their territorial integrity from future aggression back in 1992. Are openly leaving them to the wolves and taking defensive positions as that aggression has arrived. Sanctions after all wont fight one to protect Ukrainian territory nor sovereignty.
 
Abizzz said:
That's not how I meant it. I meant it relatively compared to say, Turkey, France or the UK.

I have huge respect for every Ukranian opposing him and hope we in the west do more to support them before it's too late.
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Yeah of course it's not as good as the ones you mentioned but better than 90% of those currently in NATO. There are handful of countries that are better militarized.

Ukraine's problem is that they are completely alone in terms of military backing and power.
 
Enigma_87 said:
Ukraine is not weak. It's well militarized and engaging in a war with Russia is pretty big thing for the entire population. I mean there are many civilians that would gladly sign up to defend their country.
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Mentioned yesterday the Ukrainian folks who built my house last year went back to fight Russians the very minute it started, basically dropped everything and jumped into their cars. Those guys are some of the most awesome, honest, hard working people I’ve ever met. Thousands are giving up on their comfortable life in Poland to go back and protect their land and people.
 
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