Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

harms said:
Yeah, it's absolutely brutal. Our economy was shit in the first place but what had happened over the past few days was nothing short of catastrophic — and it's only the beginning. Since we'll obviously going to see more and more consequences in the next few weeks & months. By all projections if nothing changes we're going to drop back to the early 90's level — and, considering that "do you want back to the 90's" was one of Putin's most effective counter-arguments to any critique of his internal policy it'll probably cause a huge reaction... in a bit though. People need to feel long-term consequences, right now what we see can be written off by some (who don't really understand more global economical processes) as a panic reaction.
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I vaguely remember those days. That means bread lines etc?
 
GlastonSpur said:
What's happening is essentially the struggle of freedom against control and oppression. The major part of global history since the year dot has always boiled down down to this.

The only security threat that a free and independent Ukraine poses is the threat posed to Putin's gangster-state regime by the existence - and example to the Russian people - of democracy and freedom.

The above also applies to NATO - a defensive alliance of free and democratic nations. The idea that NATO would ever invade Russia is laughable, all the more so given Russia's nuclear weapons.

Putin fears the spread of freedom and democracy into Russia. Everything else is lies from a thug dictator who, even a week ago, denied that Russian troops would invade Ukraine (beyond being already in Crimea).

There are credible people (e.g. from Bellingcat) who say that Russia cannot finance this large-scale military invasion for more than another 2 - 3 weeks.

I therefore think, if Kiev is still in Ukranian hands after this time, that the risk of Putin using nuclear weapons is, unfortunately, significantly higher than most people suppose. I believe that he might well use a tactical nuke in Ukraine if that becomes his only way of avoiding military humiliation.

What NATO's response would be, if he does use a tactical nuke, is anyone's guess.

Finally, please note: I'm here to discuss the Ukrainian situation - nothing else.
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Where on Earth have you been?!?! You can’t do this to us.
 
GlastonSpur said:
What's happening is essentially the struggle of freedom against control and oppression. The major part of global history since the year dot has always boiled down down to this.

The only security threat that a free and independent Ukraine poses is the threat posed to Putin's gangster-state regime by the existence - and example to the Russian people - of democracy and freedom.

The above also applies to NATO - a defensive alliance of free and democratic nations. The idea that NATO would ever invade Russia is laughable, all the more so given Russia's nuclear weapons.

Putin fears the spread of freedom and democracy into Russia. Everything else is lies from a thug dictator who, even a week ago, denied that Russian troops would invade Ukraine (beyond being already in Crimea).

There are credible people (e.g. from Bellingcat) who say that Russia cannot finance this large-scale military invasion for more than another 2 - 3 weeks.

I therefore think, if Kiev is still in Ukranian hands after this time, that the risk of Putin using nuclear weapons is, unfortunately, significantly higher than most people suppose. I believe that he might well use a tactical nuke in Ukraine if that becomes his only way of avoiding military humiliation.

What NATO's response would be, if he does use a tactical nuke, is anyone's guess.

Finally, please note: I'm here to discuss the Ukrainian situation - nothing else.
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Good post.
 
Hound Dog said:
Does the Swift ban mean that it will be impossible for Russian residents to receive any money from abroad?

If so, that's remote workers fecked.
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I'm not entirely sure to be honest, I think it's still possible but way more complicated. Putin has already restricted Russian residents from opening foreign bank accounts, restricted the amount of cash that you can take abroad to $10k etc. and it's only the beginning.

Classical Mechanic said:
I vaguely remember those days. That means bread lines etc?
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Yeah. We're not there yet, obviously, we're falling from a relatively high perch (compared to the 90's), but I would even expect food shortages at some point if all continues like this. Not in Moscow probably, but in the regions. Our agriculture is very reliant on foreign seeds, for example, we buy most of our wheat abroad etc.
 
TheReligion said:
I’m sorry you’re having to go through this :(
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If it all leads to Putin finally fecking off (and, ideally, a regime change, not a continuation of the same thing with a different face), I'll take that. I'd mention Ukraine as well but I don't think that those sanctions will change his policy in the next few weeks, sadly, he probably would've started to slow down otherwise (ideologically as well on the ground), but he only escalates everything more and more.
 
GlastonSpur said:
What's happening is essentially the struggle of freedom against control and oppression. The major part of global history since the year dot has always boiled down down to this.

The only security threat that a free and independent Ukraine poses is the threat posed to Putin's gangster-state regime by the existence - and example to the Russian people - of democracy and freedom.

The above also applies to NATO - a defensive alliance of free and democratic nations. The idea that NATO would ever invade Russia is laughable, all the more so given Russia's nuclear weapons.

Putin fears the spread of freedom and democracy into Russia. Everything else is lies from a thug dictator who, even a week ago, denied that Russian troops would invade Ukraine (beyond being already in Crimea).

There are credible people (e.g. from Bellingcat) who say that Russia cannot finance this large-scale military invasion for more than another 2 - 3 weeks.

I therefore think, if Kiev is still in Ukranian hands after this time, that the risk of Putin using nuclear weapons is, unfortunately, significantly higher than most people suppose. I believe that he might well use a tactical nuke in Ukraine if that becomes his only way of avoiding military humiliation.

What NATO's response would be, if he does use a tactical nuke, is anyone's guess.

Finally, please note: I'm here to discuss the Ukrainian situation - nothing else.
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Having 2-3 weeks of funds available may be a bit misleading since it doesn't factor in the impact of the sanctions (which can't be accurately measured yet). Even if he were to get desperate and attempt to use much more destructive weapons to expedite gaining control of Kyiv, it still wouldn't help his financial situation, nor would it help Russia's economy being plunged into a deep depression. He can't hold on to power much longer under these circumstances and NATO/EU leaders know it.
 
Mihai said:
“The main body of the large Russian column advancing on Kyiv remains over 30km from the centre of the city having been delayed by staunch Ukrainian resistance, mechanical breakdown and congestion. The column has made little discernible progress in over three days.” according the the Ukrainian MOD. So, it's fair to assume that there are some sort of counter-attack measures to delay the convoy.
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It's hovering around freezing in Ukraine, I appreciate Russians know cold well, but it's still pretty miserable if sleeping outdoors on an ongoing basis not knowing when you'll be moving next.

I assume they're sleeping in the vehicles, but I doubt they can just keep the vehicles running for heat as I expect they need to conserve fuel.
 
harms said:
If it all leads to Putin finally fecking off (and, ideally, a regime change, not a continuation of the same thing with a different face), I'll take that. I'd mention Ukraine as well but I don't think that those sanctions will change his policy in the next few weeks, sadly, he probably would've started to slow down otherwise (ideologically as well on the ground), but he only escalates everything more and more.
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The whole situation is awful and divisive.

Id love to visit Russia one day and there’s no reason why we can’t all be more aligned without the political narrative and agenda pushing resentment.
 
Look up the work of Carole Cadwalladr if anyone is confused about the UK response. She needs all the support she can get.
 
VorZakone said:
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According to The Times, Putin has added the Klitschko brothers to a 24 man 'kill list'. He also reportedly sent highly-trained mercenaries, including the private militia the Wagner Group, to kill both the Klitschkos and other targets including President Zelenskyy. The militia reportedly flew in to Ukraine five weeks ago and have been tracking the targets on the list and are awaiting the go-ahead to execute them, which, according to The Times, is expected to come once the negotiations with the Ukrainians inevitably break down.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk//article...s-ordered-to-kill-ukraine-president-cvcksh79d

The plans for public executions are presumably to round up any of those missed by the militia in the coming days and weeks.

Once the existing government is decapitated, Putin will presumably look to install a puppet government in their place.
 
harms said:
Yeah. We're not there yet, obviously, we're falling from a relatively high perch (compared to the 90's), but I would even expect food shortages at some point if all continues like this. Not in Moscow probably, but in the regions. Our agriculture is very reliant on foreign seeds, for example, we buy most of our wheat abroad etc.
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It's very sad. I do feel for the Russian people and the young conscripts sent out on the frontline.

I remember the mid to late 90s and it seemed that Russia was modernising and becoming more western. I suppose for many in Russia this is an anathema in and of itself. That said, I can't help but think if Russia could've come along with the west and 'the global rules based order' it would be a lot better off than it is today. There were signs this could've happened early in Putin's reign but unfortunately here we are.
 
GlastonSpur said:
What's happening is essentially the struggle of freedom against control and oppression. The major part of global history since the year dot has always boiled down down to this.

The only security threat that a free and independent Ukraine poses is the threat posed to Putin's gangster-state regime by the existence - and example to the Russian people - of democracy and freedom.

The above also applies to NATO - a defensive alliance of free and democratic nations. The idea that NATO would ever invade Russia is laughable, all the more so given Russia's nuclear weapons.

Putin fears the spread of freedom and democracy into Russia. Everything else is lies from a thug dictator who, even a week ago, denied that Russian troops would invade Ukraine (beyond being already in Crimea).

There are credible people (e.g. from Bellingcat) who say that Russia cannot finance this large-scale military invasion for more than another 2 - 3 weeks.

I therefore think, if Kiev is still in Ukranian hands after this time, that the risk of Putin using nuclear weapons is, unfortunately, significantly higher than most people suppose. I believe that he might well use a tactical nuke in Ukraine if that becomes his only way of avoiding military humiliation.

What NATO's response would be, if he does use a tactical nuke, is anyone's guess.

Finally, please note: I'm here to discuss the Ukrainian situation - nothing else.
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There can be only one response to use of Nukes.
Chilling as it is
 
IWat said:
It's hovering around freezing in Ukraine, I appreciate Russians know cold well, but it's still pretty miserable if sleeping outdoors on an ongoing basis not knowing when you'll be moving next.

I assume they're sleeping in the vehicles, but I doubt they can just keep the vehicles running for heat as I expect they need to conserve fuel.
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Based on the videos of russian POW, many of them said they didn't eat for 3-4 days. The cold must definitely be a big issue as well.

Plus, there're new reports of Ukrainian jets carrying strikes on them.

 
Infra-red said:
According to The Times, Putin has added the Klitschko brothers to a 24 man 'kill list'. He also reportedly sent highly-trained mercenaries, including the private militia the Wagner Group, to kill both the Klitschkos and other targets including President Zelenskyy. The militia reportedly flew in to Ukraine five weeks ago and have been tracking the targets on the list and are awaiting the go-ahead to execute them, which, according to The Times, is expected to come once the negotiations with the Ukrainians inevitably break down.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk//article...s-ordered-to-kill-ukraine-president-cvcksh79d

The plans for public executions are presumably to round up any of those missed by the militia in the coming days and weeks.

Once the existing government is decapitated, Putin will presumably look to install a puppet government in their place.
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I would not be surprised if both the Klitschko brothers ultimately die. They have shown themselves to be two very courageous men indeed.
 
@GlastonSpur We all know what the answer is if Putin sent Nukes. It would be swift retaliation and not much would be left of this planet to be quite frank.
 
Raoul said:
Having 2-3 weeks of funds available may be a bit misleading since it doesn't factor in the impact of the sanctions (which can't be accurately measured yet). Even if he were to get desperate and attempt to use much more destructive weapons to expedite gaining control of Kyiv, it still wouldn't help his financial situation, nor would it help Russia's economy being plunged into a deep depression. He can't hold on to power much longer under these circumstances and NATO/EU leaders know it.
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Do you believe more sanctions will follow, if Zelenskyy is killed?
 
Mihai said:
Based on the videos of russian POW, many of them said they didn't eat for 3-4 days. The cold must definitely be a big issue as well.

Plus, there're new reports of Ukrainian jets carrying strikes on them.

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that doesn’t look like the Russia column?
 
Raoul said:
Having 2-3 weeks of funds available may be a bit misleading since it doesn't factor in the impact of the sanctions (which can't be accurately measured yet). Even if he were to get desperate and attempt to use much more destructive weapons to expedite gaining control of Kyiv, it still wouldn't help his financial situation, nor would it help Russia's economy being plunged into a deep depression. He can't hold on to power much longer under these circumstances and NATO/EU leaders know it.
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I'm not sure how he can be removed from power. He has been in power so long that almost everything and everyone is now under his thumb.

Because the regime control almost all the media in Russia - and have severely restricted access to the internet inside Russia - a large majority of Russians believe the lies spun by Putin. Added to this is the existence of a very large, well-funded, internal security apparatus whose continued existence depends on Putin's survival.

So even if 10% of Russians were to rise up in open revolt, which is unlikely, they would be crushed - dubbed as "traitors" - with the approval of most Russians.

The only (slim) hope in my view is that enough members of his inner circle get so spooked by what's happening that they band together and conduct a palace coup.

But how do you think he can/will be removed from power?
 
BlueHaze said:
I would not be surprised if both the Klitschko brothers ultimately die. They have shown themselves to be two very courageous men indeed.
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They remind me of our Vidic.
Alex Ferguson takes up the story in his autobiography.

“Vidic was a dour, uncompromising sod.

“He was a proud Serb. In 2009, he came to see me to say he might be getting called up.

“‘What do you mean, called up?’ I said, alarmed. ‘Kosovo. I am going,’ he said.

“‘It’s my duty.’
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massi83 said:
I been a pos to assholes in this thread. Anyone I have assaulted has deserved it. I don't give a shit anymore. Redcafe is a terrible place nowadays. The fact that you were best newbie promoted is a testament to it. The mods let anyone spread any lies and anti-vax bs and conspiracy theories as much as possible. They let hansifickmich troll the United forum. They let Russian trolls spread their bs, heck one of the mods is a russian troll pos.

There is nothing good about redcafe anymore after SteveJ and Olly have left and Hectic taking a break, mockney or brwned not writing much. I don't give a shit if I am banned. If I see an asshole in this thread I will call them out if I want to.
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Hey, woah there. They're only 50% best newbie....
 
Water Melon said:
Do you believe more sanctions will follow, if Zelenskyy is killed?
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I wouldn't think so given that a vast majority (if not all) sanctions have already been thrown at him. Sad as it would be to see Zelenskyy go, it would probably also turn him into a martyr and make Ukrainians doubly resolute in fighting Putin. It would also reaffirm international resolve to get rid of Putin, as opposed to create a situation that would somehow allow him to survive this.
 
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Dans said:
Just seen reports here in Germany suggesting that China might have known full well what was going to happen and may have asked Russia to wait until after the Olympics.
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Well yeah they knew full well because the US had been sharing the intelligence for some time before. I'd imagine the level of intelligence on the Olympics claim is reasonable assumption based on them meeting.
 
Infra-red said:
According to The Times, Putin has added the Klitschko brothers to a 24 man 'kill list'. He also reportedly sent highly-trained mercenaries, including the private militia the Wagner Group, to kill both the Klitschkos and other targets including President Zelenskyy. The militia reportedly flew in to Ukraine five weeks ago and have been tracking the targets on the list and are awaiting the go-ahead to execute them, which, according to The Times, is expected to come once the negotiations with the Ukrainians inevitably break down.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk//article...s-ordered-to-kill-ukraine-president-cvcksh79d

The plans for public executions are presumably to round up any of those missed by the militia in the coming days and weeks.

Once the existing government is decapitated, Putin will presumably look to install a puppet government in their place.
Click to expand...

News reports i saw a couple of days ago said the mercenaries had been found and killed.

The Wagner Group especially showed themselves to not be all that fearsome in Syria.
 
GlastonSpur said:
I'm not sure how he can be removed from power. He has been in power so long that almost everything and everyone is now under his thumb.

Because the regime control almost all the media in Russia - and have severely restricted access to the internet inside Russia - a large majority of Russians believe the lies spun by Putin. Added to this is the existence of a very large, well-funded, internal security apparatus whose continued existence depends on Putin's survival.

So even if 10% of Russians were to rise up in open revolt, which is unlikely, they would be crushed - dubbed as "traitors" - with the approval of most Russians.

The only (slim) hope in my view is that enough members of his inner circle get so spooked by what's happening that they band together and conduct a palace coup.

But how do you think he can/will be removed from power?
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Every leader can be removed from power, whether by revolution, assassination, peaceful coup (involving an arrest by coup plotters) etc. Putin relies on people around him and a security and intelligence apparatus to protect him. If things get bad enough in Russia, replete with images of crackdowns, imprisonments, the murder of dissenting voices, a severe curtailment of basic services etc., then the chances of someone or a group within his inner circle taking matters into their own hands goes up significantly.
 
Raoul said:
Every leader can be removed from power, whether by revolution, assassination, peaceful coup (involving an arrest by coup plotters) etc. Putin relies on people around him and a security and intelligence apparatus to protect him. If things get bad enough in Russia, replete with images of crackdowns, imprisonments, the murder of dissenting voices, a severe curtailment of basic services etc., then the chances of someone or a group within his inner circle taking matters into their own hands goes up significantly.
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I don't think he's going anywhere any soon and rest assured if he would be removed he would take the world with him before leaving.
 
McGrathsipan said:
There can be only one response to use of Nukes.
Chilling as it is
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The problem for NATO with a tactical nuke used inside Ukraine, if that were to happen, is that Ukraine is not part of NATO. Moreover, Putin would probably tell lies - either denying the fact, or claiming that NATO has smuggled in the nuke and detonated it in order to blacken Russia's name.

It's hard to know, but my guess is that NATO would not respond militarily by sending forces into Ukraine - because WWWIII would likely be the result. I hope this guess is correct.

An attack on a NATO member is a whole different kettle of fish.
 
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