Ya to be fair I don't think Michael Kofman himself necessarily agrees with everything in the thread (based on what he said on the twitter space yesterday where at the moment he thinks this may end like the First Chechen War and that it will be hard for the Putin regime to survive this conflict), just saying that it's fair to state that it's hard to know what the balance of forces are currently without knowing how many casualties and losses of equipment the Ukrainians have suffered. With that said, the US again reiterated today that the Ukranian military still retains a significant amount of their pre-war air assets, which is ridiculous as these should have been eliminated in the first 24-72 hours.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
Ya to be fair I don't think Michael Kofman himself necessarily agrees with everything in the thread (based on what he said on the twitter space yesterday where at the moment he thinks this may end like the First Chechen War and that it will be hard for the Putin regime to survive this conflict), just saying that it's fair to state that it's hard to know what the balance of forces are currently without knowing how many casualties and losses of equipment the Ukrainians have suffered. With that said, the US again reiterated today that the Ukranian military still retains a significant amount of their pre-war air assets, which is ridiculous as these should have been eliminated in the first 24-72 hours.
I think it comes down to the number of casualties that Russian forces suffer and if/when the population starts to see the impact. You will always have hard-liners in the population but there is a lot of precedence for the Russian people to turn on a government if a war is going bad. I'm talking about the 80s/90s, you don't have to go back to the early 20th century to see examples.
Not sure a revanchist Japan is really what we need in this world.
I think its all part of a coordinated attack by the West. Now Putin cant spare as many resources as he had originally planned for Ukraine.
F-35s sent up to the Baltic, two B52s circling around Romania, near the Ukrainian border and now this?
That train of tanks from Vladivostok that was heading towards Ukraine may have to turn around now.
Wars cost money. The West will try and bleed Putin out financially before he gets to achieve any of his goals. The only thing he would have achieved in the end will be re-creating the USSR 2.0 economy. Flat ass broke.
It was to avoid this tread getting sidetracked.
The Kuril Islands have been invaded by the USSR and after Japan announced its surrender in August 1945. By definition, you could say that the Soviets violated a ceasefire prior to the formal surrender that would come on September 2. The last legal treaty regarding specific control of the islands was the Treaty of Saint Petersburg (1875), in which the eighteen islands north of Uruppu were ceded to Japan while all of Sakhalin is Russian. If anyone was revanchist, it was the Soviets only because their forebears were humiliated in the Russo-Japanese War. That and unfaithful translations in the Treaty of San Francisco are the reasons why Japan never wanted to sign a formal peace treaty with the USSR nor Russia to cede the Kuril Islands.
For the record, the Okinawa prefecture was under American control between 1945 and 1972. There comes a time when it's better for a country with little or no historical business in a region to let it go.
The thing about revanchism is that it doesn't always matter who is right or wrong. Were the French right to be revanchist over Alsace-Lorraine after the Franco-Prussian War? Probably. But it's still a contributing cause of WW1.
Interviews of Moscovites after the war/special operations started:
* the couple interviewed is pretty funny. A comedy act esp the guy.
* the couple interviewed is pretty funny. A comedy act esp the guy.
Now we know: Russia’s horrific past could become our future under Putin
Dmitry Glukhovsky
Dmitry Glukhovsky is a Russian novelist and journalist. This article was first published by Novaya Gazeta in Russia
[ In October 2021, Novaya Gazeta's editor-in-chief Dmitry Muratov was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, alongside Maria Ressa, for their safeguarding of freedom of expression in their homelands. ]
https://www.theguardian.com/comment...ias-past-future-under-putin-soviet-repression
Dmitry Glukhovsky
Dmitry Glukhovsky is a Russian novelist and journalist. This article was first published by Novaya Gazeta in Russia
[ In October 2021, Novaya Gazeta's editor-in-chief Dmitry Muratov was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, alongside Maria Ressa, for their safeguarding of freedom of expression in their homelands. ]
https://www.theguardian.com/comment...ias-past-future-under-putin-soviet-repression
Just thinking out loud here, but seems odd they someone would design a system like this and not think that through? Could western cyber hacking be partly responsible for this? Sure the US could shut down most networks and systems should they want to do so
Read this thread - incompetence on every level possible.
The war in Ukraine is costly... getting $1B a day when the war is estimated to cost more than that a day.
https://www.consultancy.eu/news/7433/research-ukraine-war-costs-russian-military-20-billion-per-day
So stopping the war is a win then...
Britain and Germany just voted against stopping oil and gas imports from Russia.
Voted where? Their parliaments?
The Trilogy looms
How predictable.
Sumy was heavily bombarded last night. Olexander Scherba’s twitter account has collated a lot of the footage of the rescue effort, which I am not linking directly to try and respect the rules.
https://twitter.com/olex_scherba?s=21
All costs? Not sure any concession is worth all.
At this point Putin would accept only the seperatist regions and Crimea, before he has to retreat back to those areas anyway.
At that point Ukraine will militarize the border with those regions with equipment and materials sent from from all over the world, exactly what Russia didn't want.
Before this NATO was asleep, Germany had no army. Next time his army intervenes somewhere like Kazakhstan or Georgia it will likely be world news and bring more sanctions.
I thought Russia not paying foreign bond holders was a smart move, as far as some way they can retaliate. I'm sure they'll find some ways to make the West hurt a bit. You'd think they'd refuse to sell fuel to Europe, even if only for a few days to generate headlines. They might need the money too badly for such a stunt.
I work in cybersecurity and I can definitely confirm that anyone and their dog can hack most networks and systems should they want to do so, not only the US.
I don't think EU or NATO would intervene (militarily) in anything that happens in Kazakhstan (in particular) or Georgia though. Especially the EU has no reach there. NATO via Turkey might, but only barely and it'll again be a case of Russia being far more willing to raise the stakes than anyone in the West would be. Kazakhstan is part of the CSTO organisation too.
Interesting polling about the shift in opinion on the war within Russia. Very small sample size but still gives a bit of hope that the propaganda is no longer sticking. FYI - It doesn’t mention anything about Iraq.
Shameful. The Ukrainians are being bombed and killed, but we can't handle minor inconveniences.
Now if only we could also take a few thousand Ukrainian refugees, instead of like 50, that would be nice. Not that I have any real expectations from our Home Office and Priti Patel though.
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Chaos, upheaval and exhaustion for Ukraine's disabled children
They had been travelling for thirty hours already. There were many hours ahead. The bus to the Polish border was a capsule of exhaustion, grief and tender mercies. Carers hugged the frightened children and whispered soothing sounds. It was not a time or place for words. There were none that could have explained the madness engulfing the world of the children from Kharkiv's Hippocrates Care Centre. They were aged between one and three and all were disabled, with serious medical conditions.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60648735
They had been travelling for thirty hours already. There were many hours ahead. The bus to the Polish border was a capsule of exhaustion, grief and tender mercies. Carers hugged the frightened children and whispered soothing sounds. It was not a time or place for words. There were none that could have explained the madness engulfing the world of the children from Kharkiv's Hippocrates Care Centre. They were aged between one and three and all were disabled, with serious medical conditions.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60648735
It's ironic because we always proclaim that no price can be put on human life, but we do constantly do it.
However, if the EU were to embargo Russian Oil/Gas it would take a very big financial hit that would affect lower social strata and poorer countries the most and it would require an expensive coordinated response. It's not just about Germany alone here and it's not just about inconveniences.
Think about what happens to the poorest members in Southern, Eastern and Balkan Europe when the price of oil and gas blows up. What happens in Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria. Slovakia, Greece etc. when the energy bills start to cost more than what people bring home each month. That's not just a minor inconvenience.
Please keep this thread on track. If you want to talk about other wars etc take it to the whaboutism thread
Ah okay so invading a country is fine if you make up fables and deem the leader a bad guy. Makes sense.
Out of curiosity, how can he contact the world from his jail cell? There were a bunch of calls to action by him already. I imagine he's generally isolated but talks to his family and friends who then publish it. But I can't imagine he won't be punished for this type of stuff?
First of all, even the original thread is very speculative to say the least (including misquoting the only direct quote that he includes). It’s incredibly hard to properly reconstruct what was happening at the beginning of the Great Patriotic War (Hitler’s invasion of Russia), as all sources are extremely biased towards themselves, but Galeev’s version is extremely far-fetched.
As for Putin, we’ll never know. He doesn’t have a smartphone or a direct internet access (willingly), so he’s extremely reliant on the rigid chain that updates him with information, but I doubt that anyone would dare to significantly alter the real numbers/situation — if anything, lying to Putin has to be scarier than telling him disappointing truth. Obviously all of the info would be slightly altered to fit the narrative better, but I doubt that it would be completely altered. And you have to understand that the guys that supply Putin with info (FSB & FSS) aren’t military, so Putin’s anger won’t be directed at them.
As the apparent FSB informant said, they were only bullshitting on the potential projections of a future war as no one thought that it was a realistic perspective — so they’ve focused their analysis on different scenarios. Now, when the war is in action, it’s a different point.
Through his lawyers or through his wife, yes, when they get visits. Plus, I’d imagine, he has some stuff pre-written for certain scenarios.
He probably gets punished for that but he gets punished for literally anything including no reason at all, so it’s hardly changing anything for him.
Edit: this particular series of tweets look like the work of his team entirely, I doubt that Navalny had anything to do with it, except for probably approving the initial idea.
Didnt think UK got to vote in the European Parliament ... brexit etc
I don't think the UK are keen on blocking imports of Russian oil though.
surprised hes not fallen down the stairs and had a fatal accident where the back of his head lands on a bullet than just happened to fall from a guards pistol who was trying to catch him
That's the price of human life, inconvenience.