Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Mciahel Goodman said:
America is negotiating with Venezuela as we speak, recognizing Maduro's legitimacy insofar as Maduro is willing to fill the production gap left by Russian sanctions. America is also negotiating with Iran as we speak, the goal being to bring Iran's capacity of 2 million barrels of oil per day back online via the nuclear deal. Iran has actually criticized Russia of late because Russia is trying to assert its position as guarantor of that nuclear negotiation process (thereby potentially threatening Iran's newfound entrance back into America's good graces and the world economy more broadly). North Korea is an irrelevancy, as is Cuba, and China is the biggest trading partner of both the EU and Iran (iirc). So I don't think it's as simple as you'd have it.
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Let's see about Venezuela and Iran. I am aware of the negotiations but I don't expect them to just jump into America's (or the West's) arms after years of having their economy repressed.
 
I’m somewhat surprised that the Ruble has not crashed past 200 per Pound Sterling yet.
 
spiriticon said:
Let's see about Venezuela and Iran. I am aware of the negotiations but I don't expect them to just jump into America's (or the West's) arms after years of having their economy repressed.
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I think OPEC countries will hold the line, profiteer whilst negociations drag on. It's a win-win. Iran and Venezuala get more from the deals the longer it goes on and the Gulf Arab countries get to sell oil at stupid prices.

Meanwhile Russia feels the pinch, unless it sells oil on the cheap to China.
 
spiriticon said:
The Russian central bank still has half of their reserves to prop it up as long as they can.
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Can someone explain it to me like I am five? Basically the Russians will continue to buy their own Ruble for less than it is possibly worth using Dollar reserves that they have?
 
Russia really think the rest of the world is as dumb as their army or some of their supporters back home.
 
Sir Matt said:


A day after Putin said conscripts would never be used. :lol:
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Regrettably, we've found a few such cases... the wording itself is insane. Oops, we did a baddie.

I wonder if they're going to held Putin accountable for spreading fakes about the military operation. They didn't approve that law for nothing, did they?
 
11101 said:
I don't know much about them other than they're usually as effective as a chocolate teapot, but why aren't UN Peacekeepers being discussed in the role to protect evacuation corridors.

Nato will not and should not get involved in this.
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I agree NATO shouldn't get involved, I guess I was using the term as a stand in for Western countries, many of which are members.

I can't imagine UN peacekeepers working at this point though, as the conflict is still at its peaks (so far) and would likely mean the peacekeepers would become actively involved in a war, siding against Russian forces. Also peacekeeping missions are decided by the security council, where Russia has veto power. So far any proposed evacuation corridors have been attempts by Russia to pretend they're respecting human rights.
 
Sarni said:
It is huge difference. If Polish jets go from Poland straight into Ukraine, and Russia retaliate, NATO will not have to protect Poland. If they go through US, and Poland gets attacked as retaliation, NATO will be obliged to protect us. It's a massive difference.
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I guess I don't see the nuanced difference. If the planes are leaving Poland and Poland gets attacked why would nato not come to Polands aid. Sending jets to Ukraine isn't Poland attacking Russia. Literally most of the weapons given to Ukraine have entered Ukraine via Poland and Romania.
 
harms said:
Regrettably, we've found a few such cases... the wording itself is insane. Oops, we did a baddie.

I wonder if they're going to held Putin accountable for spreading fakes about the military operation. They didn't approve that law for nothing, did they?
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I guess it's hard to hide when your kid is a conscript and comes home in a body bag.
 
Oly Francis said:
I guess it's hard to hide when your kid is a conscript and comes home in a body bag.
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I think the case that got everyone's attention was a POW, I actually think that hiding a body bag would've been easier.
 
harms said:
Regrettably, we've found a few such cases... the wording itself is insane. Oops, we did a baddie.

I wonder if they're going to held Putin accountable for spreading fakes about the military operation. They didn't approve that law for nothing, did they?
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Sir Matt said:


A day after Putin said conscripts would never be used. :lol:
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It's surprising that they've even admitted this. I wonder if it's a subtle hint from their Defence Ministry that they're not happy with Putin's plan
 
This whole affair is really sad and appalling and it seems that despite the terrible military organisation or lack thereof from Russia, It's apparent that Putin has Nato at Checkmate and unless something drastic changes, Putin will get a lot of what he wants.

What is crazy though, is that any country with Nukes will now see that they could potentially take over other countries and just threat Nukes to pretty much get away with it.

Russia have proven loss of life or quality for its citizens matter very little.
 
choccy77 said:
This whole affair is really sad and appalling and it seems that despite the terrible military organisation or lack thereof from Russia, It's apparent that Putin has Nato at Checkmate and unless something drastic changes, Putin will get a lot of what he wants.

What is crazy though, is that any country with Nukes will now see that they could potentially take over other countries and just threat Nukes to pretty much get away with it.

Russia have proven loss of life or quality for its citizens matter very little.
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This isn't how I'd describe the situation at all. Russia's economy is going to collapse. This is turning out to be a terrible move by Putin.
 
choccy77 said:
This whole affair is really sad and appalling and it seems that despite the terrible military organisation or lack thereof from Russia, It's apparent that Putin has Nato at Checkmate and unless something drastic changes, Putin will get a lot of what he wants.

What is crazy though, is that any country with Nukes will now see that they could potentially take over other countries and just threat Nukes to pretty much get away with it.

Russia have proven loss of life or quality for its citizens matter very little.
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Only the kind of "checkmate" that you didn't think of the opponent taking en passant.
 
JPRouve said:
Poland are in a similar situation, they need the jets themselves and can't take any replacement jets quickly. And logically Poland don't want to fly jets into Ukraine, they are scarred of Russia, as rumoured the US could allow the jets to be exchanged in Ramstein but that's very close to a declaration of war and no amount of gas would see them do that currently and on their own.
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I have been hearing this kind of stuff in bold since yesterday. I hope everyone remembers how supplying weapons was far more direct and quite damaging to either US or the USSR during the Cold War. Smuggling Stinger missile launchers from Pakistan into Afghanistan when that tech was brand new looked like more of a provocation than now providing jets over 30 years old to Ukraine. Also, need I say about the Viet-Cong receiving state of the art SAMs to decimate the US Air Force during the Vietnam War?

And if NATO keep on arming Ukraine with drones, which are offensive weapons to an extent, why would that be less of an issue anyway?

TMDaines said:
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:( :( :mad: :mad: :mad:
 
At this point, we may aswell send fighter jets from the west, he’ll only make it up anyway that we did if we don’t.

Then we can reverse Lie and say there Russian jets with British and American stickers made by the Chinese.
 
Any short range ballistic missiles that NATO can ship to UA? They really need to take out those artillery positions. Or it's all cruise and that requires completely different infra.
 
RedDevilQuebecois said:
I have been hearing this kind of stuff in bold since yesterday. I hope everyone remembers how supplying weapons was far more direct and quite damaging to either US or the USSR during the Cold War. Smuggling Stinger missile launchers from Pakistan into Afghanistan when that tech was brand new looked like more of a provocation than now providing jets over 30 years old to Ukraine. Also, need I say about the Viet-Cong receiving state of the art SAMs to decimate the US Air Force during the Vietnam War?

And if NATO keep on arming Ukraine with drones, which are offensive weapons to an extent, why would that be less of an issue anyway?
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The bolded part is a key point, they were in an open warring context. And because they couldn't settle it directly did it through proxy wars, I don't think that we are currently in that context and if the US aren't careful that's what could happen and what I assume they want to avoid. In fact it could be something that Putin seeks?
 
MadMike said:
I don't think EU or NATO would intervene (militarily) in anything that happens in Kazakhstan (in particular) or Georgia though. Especially the EU has no reach there. NATO via Turkey might, but only barely and it'll again be a case of Russia being far more willing to raise the stakes than anyone in the West would be. Kazakhstan is part of the CSTO organisation too.
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I agree, the west won't go into either of those places. But unlike when Putin went into Georgia and there were no sanctions, if he does it again, now, I expect the West will actually react this time.

It was clearly a huge mistake not to react to the invasion of Georgia in 2008. Putin has followed the exact same plan in Ukraine.
 
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