Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion



Not included in the tweet - Russian troops are disorganized, logistically inept, in poor morale, and lacking in coherent C2 to make significant progress against an increasingly well armed Ukrainian military and popular resistance.
 
At this point, I am more worried about the Russian, willfully or not, sabotaging one of the nuclear power plants.
 
Can someone explain it to me like I am five? Basically the Russians will continue to buy their own Ruble for less than it is possibly worth using Dollar reserves that they have?

Basically, yes - they are buying rubles with foreign currency to try to set a floor for the exchange rate. Two points on which I am not clear is how much of their foreign currency reserves is still accessible ( as opposed to frozen overseas) and how they actually settle USD transactions through a US correspondence bank given the Russian Central Bank is sanctioned.
 
Russian inflation rises by 2.2% in just 1 week up til March 4th.

"Since the military offensive began late in February, prices for new domestic cars soared over 17% and the cost of television sets jumped 15%. Some medicines and vegetables became 5% to 7% more expensive in the seven days ending March 4. ... Retailers have already started restricting purchases of “socially important” food staples in recent days "

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-for-russia-as-inflation-rips-through-economy
 
UK visa situation gets worse. Centre in Rzeszow is seemingly unable to finalise many (or all?) visa applications, so after fleeing from Ukraine, taking hours or days to cross the border, and proceeding to the closest UK visa centre in Rzeszow where you have an interminable wait to be seen, people are now being sent to Warsaw for a second appointment. Can you imagine?

 
UK visa situation gets worse. Centre in Rzeszow is seemingly unable to finalise many (or all?) visa applications, so after fleeing from Ukraine, taking hours or days to cross the border, and proceeding to the closest UK visa centre in Rzeszow where you have an interminable wait to be seen, people are now being sent to Warsaw for a second appointment. Can you imagine?



This is honestly the worst. Just let them in already.
 
I think Putin is using "The Madman theory".

"Nixon Chief of Staff H. R. Haldeman once wrote that Nixon had confided to him, “I call it the madman theory, Bob. I want the North Vietnamese to believe I’ve reached the point where I might do anything to stop the war. We’ll just slip the word to them that, “for God’s sake, you know Nixon is obsessed about communism. We can’t restrain him when he’s angry—and he has his hand on the nuclear button, and Ho Chi Minh himself will be in Paris in two days begging for peace.”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madman_theory
 
I think Putin is using "The Madman theory".

"Nixon Chief of Staff H. R. Haldeman once wrote that Nixon had confided to him, “I call it the madman theory, Bob. I want the North Vietnamese to believe I’ve reached the point where I might do anything to stop the war. We’ll just slip the word to them that, “for God’s sake, you know Nixon is obsessed about communism. We can’t restrain him when he’s angry—and he has his hand on the nuclear button, and Ho Chi Minh himself will be in Paris in two days begging for peace.”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madman_theory

I think so too. And if we let Putin get away with murder because he is holding the nuke threat over our heads, he will just continue doing what he wants. The world needs to call his bluff.
 
Looks like Ukraine will be land locked in the next few days. Have to hope diplomacy produces something before they then begin their encirclement of Kyiv, what we're seeing now is going to be nothing in comparison.
 
Looks like Ukraine will be land locked in the next few days. Have to hope diplomacy produces something before they then begin their encirclement of Kyiv, what we're seeing now is going to be nothing in comparison.

The Russians don't even have control of a single major Ukrainian city at this point. If they think they can bumble their way into controlling the entire country, they may want to reassess, especially given the looming economic Armageddon inside Russia.
 

He is talking about segregation by nationality, not race, to reduce tensions when people are attempting to flee the country and be processed at the border.

Not sure why that journalist has decided to spin in that way. But that keeps happening for two weeks now anyway.
 
The Russians don't even have control of a single major Ukrainian city at this point. If they think they can bumble their way into controlling the entire country, they may want to reassess, especially given the looming economic Armageddon inside Russia.

Well the US intelligence seems to be they'll encircle Kyiv and take the south within a week.
 
He is talking about segregation by nationality, not race, to reduce tensions when people are attempting to flee the country and be processed at the border.

Not sure why that journalist has decided to spin in that way. But that keeps happening for two weeks now anyway.

I watched that live, it'd be a stretch to say he was referring to nationality. Doesn't make him a racist but he was talking about visible foreigners of different races and the issues it's causing.
 
Well the US intelligence seems to be they'll encircle Kyiv and take the south within a week.

Its possible, but they don't have the resources to hold any cities they take, which means their gains are in constant danger of being reversed once their troops leave a particular area. They simply don't have enough troops or logistical resources available to hold anything.
 
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Attacking a maternity and children’s hospital. FFS. Anytime is despicable but in an agreed ceasefire?

What are they doing? these aren’t professional soldiers. Absolute dogs.
 
Attacking a maternity and children’s hospital. FFS. Anytime is despicable but in an agreed ceasefire?

What are they doing? these aren’t professional soldiers. Absolute dogs.
If you believe reports that the Russians have massive communication problems it might be that they are not even abke to inform all their soldiers about ceasefire agreements.
 
I guess I don't see the nuanced difference. If the planes are leaving Poland and Poland gets attacked why would nato not come to Polands aid. Sending jets to Ukraine isn't Poland attacking Russia. Literally most of the weapons given to Ukraine have entered Ukraine via Poland and Romania.

Well there's huge difference. US themselves said they don't want them flying out of Germany based airfield as that would endanger Germany and NATO but were completely fine with Poland giving them away and gave us 'green light' to proceed.

Thing is, if Poland flew them out of Polish airifield, or allowed that airfield to be used by Ukrainian forces, they automatically become part of conflict willingly, and do not have to be protected by NATO as it's a strictly defensive alliance. Maybe they would still protect us, maybe they wouldn't, I just wouldn't want to test it to be honest. The fact that US don't want to carry them from their base really goes to show everything we need to know.

Giving weapons is different because it's basically like trade. Planes coming from Polish airspace into airspace where there's active conflict between two countries is a different thing altogether.
 
Well there's huge difference. US themselves said they don't want them flying out of Germany based airfield as that would endanger Germany and NATO but were completely fine with Poland giving them away and gave us 'green light' to proceed.

Thing is, if Poland flew them out of Polish airifield, or allowed that airfield to be used by Ukrainian forces, they automatically become part of conflict willingly, and do not have to be protected by NATO as it's a strictly defensive alliance. Maybe they would still protect us, maybe they wouldn't, I just wouldn't want to test it to be honest. The fact that US don't want to carry them from their base really goes to show everything we need to know.

Giving weapons is different because it's basically like trade. Planes coming from Polish airspace into airspace where there's active conflict between two countries is a different thing altogether.

The way you wrote that makes me feel that my earlier doubts about NATO could be true. Or I'm reading way too much into it. :lol:
 
Well there's huge difference. US themselves said they don't want them flying out of Germany based airfield as that would endanger Germany and NATO but were completely fine with Poland giving them away and gave us 'green light' to proceed.

Thing is, if Poland flew them out of Polish airifield, or allowed that airfield to be used by Ukrainian forces, they automatically become part of conflict willingly, and do not have to be protected by NATO as it's a strictly defensive alliance. Maybe they would still protect us, maybe they wouldn't, I just wouldn't want to test it to be honest. The fact that US don't want to carry them from their base really goes to show everything we need to know.

Giving weapons is different because it's basically like trade. Planes coming from Polish airspace into airspace where there's active conflict between two countries is a different thing altogether.

wait they said that? because that makes no sense. You have a source for that i could read?
 
If you believe reports that the Russians have massive communication problems it might be that they are not even abke to inform all their soldiers about ceasefire agreements.

I mean... what kind of shit army do they have to have it this bad when it comes to communications? Those guys should not even be able to scratch their asses unless they're told it's OK to.
 
So Mariupol is just going to starve to death? What on earth are the Russians thinking here?
 
I mean... what kind of shit army do they have to have it this bad when it comes to communications? Those guys should not even be able to scratch their asses unless they're told it's OK to.

If the various rumours are true and Russia largely sent very young barely trained soldiers then it's very easy to understand where the problem is, they can't give coordinates or read maps properly. There is a chance that we are witnessing what happens if you send soldiers that haven't finished basic training.
 
If/when evacuation is performed, I'd expect the Aleppo treatment afterwards

They are already getting that treatment, its just maybe a little slower than Aleppo because Ukraine has a defense against the bombers.
 
There comes a point when you question
the point of humanity if we can’t step
in to save the inhumane, are we only here to exist, if so then it’s 100 percent the right thing to do.

The threat of nuclear war is real but this feeling of cowardice is disgusting.

Is it better to live in a communist state then children dead, Ukraine must be considering this.
 
wait they said that? because that makes no sense. You have a source for that i could read?

It’s basically here: https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/09/politics/ukraine-russia-poland-fighter-jets/index.html

And from another article:

The White House is not opposed to Nato-member Poland donating some of its used fighter-jets to Ukraine, press secretary Jen Psaki said.

But Psaki has spelt out that the US is not eager to have that happen in the way suggested by Poland yesterday, whereby it would donate the jets to the US and the US would supply them to Ukrainefrom its massive US-Nato air base in south-western Germany.

Psaki is backing up secretary of state Antony Blinken in a press conference at the state department earlier. Both point out that the logistics are complex but, crucially, it risks the US being drawn in to direct military conflict with Russia.



So basically good for Poland to give them but without involving US. Sounds dodgy as feck to me.
 
From the outset, I've been against a no-fly-zone or any kind of escalation that might cause direct confrontation with Russia - especially with the possibility of a nuclear exchange looming in the background.

...but the more I see of these war crimes piling up, the shelling of refugees, the shooting of civilian cars and journalists and now a maternity hospital being destroyed, I'm starting to wonder if it's time we should act. I mean, pragmatically speaking, what is the worst Putin going to do if we intervene in Ukraine? He couldn't invade anywhere else in Europe because he's already heavily committed in Ukraine and it would take too long to open up other fronts, that in addition to the fact that Russia would have no chance in a conventional war in Europe. He's had a taste of how good NATO tech can be against his disorganised invasion and decrepit hardware, much of which is Soviet era shite. There's no way he'd have any hope of invading a NATO country.

That just leaves the nuclear option, and, unless he's completely lost his mind, he knows that's not winnable either.