Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

A few years ago I realized that I knew almost nothing beyond the very basics about the Eastern Front of WWII, so I decided to read a couple of books about it to know a little bit more. I also ended up getting a bit of the history of internal USSR politics around the time, and what shocked me about Stalin was the randomness of the violence. It went beyond what you might call just politically useful (persecution of opponents or even internal rivals), and got solidly into paranoia and maybe even bloodlust territory. I don't think its a great debate as to who was most violent, hard to lead to anything. But Stalin's brutality still stands out as you read about it, not just the numbers but the nature of it too.
I'm curious to know what books you read that you felt were particularly educational?

I'm listening to The Cold War written by Odd Arne Westad and am wanting to move onto some others soon as well.
 
I wonder what can be interpreted from this. Mass desertions and resignations within the FSB?

The Ukrainian parliament passed a law to seize all russian assets on the Ukrainian territory, afaik. They probably know that things are quite bad and are trying to liquidate before it's too late.
 
Video title is misleading, as the strikes (outside Kyiv) are probably from Javelins and /or NLAWs and not artillery, but anyhow:

 
I'm curious to know what books you read that you felt were particularly educational?

I'm listening to The Cold War written by Odd Arne Westad and am wanting to move onto some others soon as well.
Absolute War: Soviet Russia in the Second World War by Chris Bellamy, was what I read to learn more about the war. People also talk a lot about David Glantz as one of the leading Eastern Front historians, and When Titans Clashed I think is his overview of the war book, besides his many other works about specific battles or aspects of the war.

I also read In Deadly Combat: A German Soldier's Memoir of the Eastern Front, which as the name says is a bit of the view of the war from a German foot-soldier's perspective. I've found that perspective interesting once I get some sense of the bigger picture, to know what it was like on the ground especially for the losing side (a lot of death).
 
Absolute War: Soviet Russia in the Second World War by Chris Bellamy, was what I read to learn more about the war. People also talk a lot about David Glantz as one of the leading Eastern Front historians, and When Titans Clashed I think is his overview of the war book, besides his many other works about specific battles or aspects of the war.

I also read In Deadly Combat: A German Soldier's Memoir of the Eastern Front, which as the name says is a bit of the view of the war from a German foot-soldier's perspective. I've found that perspective interesting once I get some sense of the bigger picture, to know what it was like on the ground especially for the losing side (a lot of death).

Cheers, will add these to my list. :smirk:
 
Absolute War: Soviet Russia in the Second World War by Chris Bellamy, was what I read to learn more about the war. People also talk a lot about David Glantz as one of the leading Eastern Front historians, and When Titans Clashed I think is his overview of the war book, besides his many other works about specific battles or aspects of the war.

I also read In Deadly Combat: A German Soldier's Memoir of the Eastern Front, which as the name says is a bit of the view of the war from a German foot-soldier's perspective. I've found that perspective interesting once I get some sense of the bigger picture, to know what it was like on the ground especially for the losing side (a lot of death).

This is a review of a book by someone who fought at Stalingrad: https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-21?s=r
Review makes the book seem very interesting.
 
Absolute War: Soviet Russia in the Second World War by Chris Bellamy, was what I read to learn more about the war. People also talk a lot about David Glantz as one of the leading Eastern Front historians, and When Titans Clashed I think is his overview of the war book, besides his many other works about specific battles or aspects of the war.

I also read In Deadly Combat: A German Soldier's Memoir of the Eastern Front, which as the name says is a bit of the view of the war from a German foot-soldier's perspective. I've found that perspective interesting once I get some sense of the bigger picture, to know what it was like on the ground especially for the losing side (a lot of death).
I’d like to recommend Russia’s War by Richard Overy as well.
 
If the Russians can’t beat Ukrainians without losing too many men, with all the sanctions killing their economy I see 2 outcomes coming from this, they kill Putin and the war is over or Putin uses nuclear weapons against Ukraine and then they will advance on any no NATO/EU country that used to be part of soviet Union. Countries will start shaking their boots and start trading again with Russia. They will replace their flag with the old Soviet flag and cold war version 2 to continue.
 


They're sending expired bulletproof vest panels and plates that can't be used. They have a life expectancy of 5 years, if I remember correctly. It's essentially a warranty though. The vest are still safe for some time after that, but I think most vest manufacturers use it as an excuse to force agencies to buy new vests/body armor every few years. If manufacturers tell everyone they can't promise the vests are safe after 5 years, no agency is going to use them beyond that.

An agency I know of had a whole pallet-sized box full of old bulletproof vests and panels that has probably grown in size if they haven't gotten rid of them. I also know of a few people who shot old vests to test them, and the vests were still effective.
 
I'm curious to know what books you read that you felt were particularly educational?

I'm listening to The Cold War written by Odd Arne Westad and am wanting to move onto some others soon as well.

I have to mention this book, "Berlin 1945 - the downfall" by Antony Beevor. One of the best books about that period of ww2.

Edit: the book is not only about the fights in and aroung Berlin but also the Soviet Union's campaign through europe leading up to that.
 
If true, that’s massive.

Yes. I'd be interested to see a translated transcript of what was said - whether they called it a "war" etc.

Edit - found an article that includes the above: https://news.yahoo.com/even-russia-state-tv-admits-160508384.html

"Andrey Sidorov, deputy dean of world politics at Moscow State University, cautioned: “For our country, this period won’t be easy. It will be very difficult. It might be even more difficult than it was for the Soviet Union from 1945 until the 1960s... We’re more integrated into the global economy than the Soviet Union, we’re more dependent on imports—and the main part is that the Cold War is the war of the minds, first and foremost. Unfortunately, the Soviet Union had a consolidating idea on which its system was built. Unlike the Soviet Union, Russia has nothing like that to offer.”

State TV pundit Karen Shakhnazarov pointed out: “The war in Ukraine paints a frightening picture, it has a very oppressive influence on our society. Ukraine, whichever way you see it, is something with which Russia has thousands of human links. The suffering of one group of innocents does not compensate for the suffering of other innocent people... I don’t see the probability of denazification of such an enormous country. We would need to bring in 1.5 million soldiers to control all of it. At the same time, I don’t see any political power that would consolidate the Ukrainian society in a pro-Russian direction... Those who talked of their mass attraction to Russia obviously didn’t see things the way they are. The most important thing in this scenario is to stop our military action. Others will say that sanctions will remain. Yes, they will remain, but in my opinion discontinuing the active phase of a military operation is very important.”

Resorting to the traditional propaganda tropes prevalent in Russian state media, Shakhnazarov accused the United States of starting the war—and trying to prolong it indefinitely. He speculated: “What are they achieving by prolonging the war? First of all, public opinion within Russia is changing. People are shocked by the masses of refugees, the humanitarian catastrophe, people start to imagine themselves in their place. It’s starting to affect them. To say that the Nazis are doing that is not quite convincing, strictly speaking... On top of that, economic sanctions will start to affect them, and seriously. There will probably be scarcity. A lot of products we don’t produce, even the simplest ones. There’ll be unemployment. They really thought through these sanctions, they’re hitting us with real continuity. It’s a well-planned operation... Yes, this is a war of the United States with Russia... These sanctions are hitting us very precisely.

“This threatens the change of public opinion in Russia, the destabilization of our power structures... with the possibility of a full destabilization of the country and a civil war. This apocalyptic scenario is based on the script written by the Americans. They benefit through us dragging out the military operation. We need to end it somehow. If we achieved the demilitarization and freed the Donbas, that is sufficient... I have a hard time imagining taking cities such as Kyiv. I can’t imagine how that would look. If this picture starts to transform into an absolute humanitarian disaster, even our close allies like China and India will be forced to distance themselves from us. This public opinion, with which they’re saturating the entire world, can play out badly for us... Ending this operation will stabilize things within the country.”

The host frowned at the apparent departure from the officially approved line of thinking and deferred to the commander-in-chief. However, the next expert agreed with Shakhnazarov. Semyon Bagdasarov, a Russian Middle East expert, grimly said: “We didn’t even feel the impact of the sanctions just yet... We need to be ready for total isolation. I’m not panicking, just calling things by their proper name.”

Soloviev angrily sniped: “Gotcha. We should just lay down and die.”

Bagdasarov continued: “Now about Ukraine. I agree with Karen. We had prior experiences of bringing in our troops, destroying the military infrastructure and leaving. I think that our army fulfilled their task of demilitarization of the country by destroying most of their military installations... To restore their military they will need at least 10 years... Let Ukrainians do this denazification on their own. We can’t do it for them... As for their neutrality, yes, we should squeeze it out of them, and that’s it. We don’t need to stay there longer than necessary... Do we need to get into another Afghanistan, but even worse? There are more people and they’re more advanced in their handling of weapons. We don’t need that. Enough already... As for the sanctions, the world has never seen such massive sanctions.”

Dmitry Abzalov, director of the Center for Strategic Communications, pointed out that even though energy prices will go up for most of the West, it won’t do much to ease the pain for the Russians: “We’ll still be the ones taking the terminal hit, and an incomparable one, even though other countries will also suffer some losses. We’ll all be going to hell together—except for maybe China—but going to hell together with the French or Germans won’t make our people feel any better.” Abzalov argued that after taking additional territories in Eastern Ukraine, Russia should get out of Dodge, believing that all Western companies that temporarily paused their operations in Russia would then rush to come back. “It’s about toxicity, not just sanctions... It will go away once the situation stabilizes.”

Prior to the invasion of Ukraine, state TV experts predicted that Russia could overtake it in a matter of minutes or a few days. Stunned by the fierce resistance on the part of Ukrainians, Soloviev described them as “the army that is second in Europe, after ours, and which has been prepared for eight years and armed with everything you can imagine.”

Soloviev added: “This is a frightening war that is being waged against us by America.”
 
Last edited:
Given some of the comments made in that State TV broadcast - e.g. "The war in Ukraine paints a frightening picture " - you have to think that someone (or maybe a group) around Putin is starting to cut up rough against him.

This broadcast must have been given the green light by someone.
 
Given some of the comments made in that State TV broadcast - e.g. "The war in Ukraine paints a frightening picture " - you have to think that someone (or maybe a group) around Putin is starting to cut up rough against him.

This broadcast must have been given the green light by someone.

Definitely a story worth monitoring.
 
At this point the US presidency is just an empty chair.


So basically, this is Russia’s Brexit… but worse.

Wtf is wrong with Boomers as a generation? Serious question.
What a truly dumb as feck comparison. But I won't chalk it up to the stupidity of a whole generation.
 
At this point the US presidency is just an empty chair.


The Ukrainians can't operate Patriot missiles so the US would have to send Americans to operate them (like the Russians who shot down MH17 from the "separatist" Buk). They can operate the Buks, S-300s, and other Soviet-make anti-aircraft weapons systems that some other NATO countries have. They would be more useful than Patriot missiles or jets now. The US and NATO should facilitate the transfer of these systems to Ukraine ASAP and backfill them with new alternatives.
 


If there are Ukrainians who can fly them and would be useful, Italy should announce that they are ceding an airport to the Vatican then make the transfer while the Vatican is trying to figure out what's going on. Nobody's going to bomb the Vatican...
 
If there are Ukrainians who can fly them and would be useful, Italy should announce that they are ceding an airport to the Vatican then make the transfer while the Vatican is trying to figure out what's going on. Nobody's going to bomb the Vatican...

I hear Martha McSally flies a mean A-10. Would definitely recommend her.
 
If there are Ukrainians who can fly them and would be useful, Italy should announce that they are ceding an airport to the Vatican then make the transfer while the Vatican is trying to figure out what's going on. Nobody's going to bomb the Vatican...
Should have quite some time ago.
 
The Ukrainians can't operate Patriot missiles so the US would have to send Americans to operate them (like the Russians who shot down MH17 from the "separatist" Buk). They can operate the Buks, S-300s, and other Soviet-make anti-aircraft weapons systems that some other NATO countries have. They would be more useful than Patriot missiles or jets now. The US and NATO should facilitate the transfer of these systems to Ukraine ASAP and backfill them with new alternatives.
I like to think the US is playing two sides, repeatedly pooh poohing in public the supply of truly effective weapons and then privately enabling an unstinting supply line of stuff that will hurt the occupiers. Guess if they don't facilitate the transfer of the systems you describe we'll know the answer.
 
What do people think Biden should be doing right now? He's making it his mission to try and tank the Russian economy while sending gear and weaponry the Ukrainians can actually use. He can't put boots on the ground and nor can they put a no fly zone over Ukraine. The only thing Biden can realistically do is send troops and gear to the NATO borders to ensure that it stops at the Ukraine border.
 
What do people think Biden should be doing right now? He's making it his mission to try and tank the Russian economy while sending gear and weaponry the Ukrainians can actually use. He can't put boots on the ground and nor can they put a no fly zone over Ukraine. The only thing Biden can realistically do is send troops and gear to the NATO borders to ensure that it stops at the Ukraine border.

He should be doing what he's been doing. Arming the Ukrainians to the gills with stingers, javelins, and all kinds of other weapons. Until Putin oversteps and uses a WMD or possibly a thermobaric against civilians, there's really not that Biden can do other than tighten the economic stranglehold via sanctions and arming Ukrainians to fight an insurgency.
 
Yes. I'd be interested to see a translated transcript of what was said - whether they called it a "war" etc.

Edit - found an article that includes the above: https://news.yahoo.com/even-russia-state-tv-admits-160508384.html

"Andrey Sidorov, deputy dean of world politics at Moscow State University, cautioned: “For our country, this period won’t be easy. It will be very difficult. It might be even more difficult than it was for the Soviet Union from 1945 until the 1960s... We’re more integrated into the global economy than the Soviet Union, we’re more dependent on imports—and the main part is that the Cold War is the war of the minds, first and foremost. Unfortunately, the Soviet Union had a consolidating idea on which its system was built. Unlike the Soviet Union, Russia has nothing like that to offer.”

State TV pundit Karen Shakhnazarov pointed out: “The war in Ukraine paints a frightening picture, it has a very oppressive influence on our society. Ukraine, whichever way you see it, is something with which Russia has thousands of human links. The suffering of one group of innocents does not compensate for the suffering of other innocent people... I don’t see the probability of denazification of such an enormous country. We would need to bring in 1.5 million soldiers to control all of it. At the same time, I don’t see any political power that would consolidate the Ukrainian society in a pro-Russian direction... Those who talked of their mass attraction to Russia obviously didn’t see things the way they are. The most important thing in this scenario is to stop our military action. Others will say that sanctions will remain. Yes, they will remain, but in my opinion discontinuing the active phase of a military operation is very important.”

Resorting to the traditional propaganda tropes prevalent in Russian state media, Shakhnazarov accused the United States of starting the war—and trying to prolong it indefinitely. He speculated: “What are they achieving by prolonging the war? First of all, public opinion within Russia is changing. People are shocked by the masses of refugees, the humanitarian catastrophe, people start to imagine themselves in their place. It’s starting to affect them. To say that the Nazis are doing that is not quite convincing, strictly speaking... On top of that, economic sanctions will start to affect them, and seriously. There will probably be scarcity. A lot of products we don’t produce, even the simplest ones. There’ll be unemployment. They really thought through these sanctions, they’re hitting us with real continuity. It’s a well-planned operation... Yes, this is a war of the United States with Russia... These sanctions are hitting us very precisely.

“This threatens the change of public opinion in Russia, the destabilization of our power structures... with the possibility of a full destabilization of the country and a civil war. This apocalyptic scenario is based on the script written by the Americans. They benefit through us dragging out the military operation. We need to end it somehow. If we achieved the demilitarization and freed the Donbas, that is sufficient... I have a hard time imagining taking cities such as Kyiv. I can’t imagine how that would look. If this picture starts to transform into an absolute humanitarian disaster, even our close allies like China and India will be forced to distance themselves from us. This public opinion, with which they’re saturating the entire world, can play out badly for us... Ending this operation will stabilize things within the country.”

The host frowned at the apparent departure from the officially approved line of thinking and deferred to the commander-in-chief. However, the next expert agreed with Shakhnazarov. Semyon Bagdasarov, a Russian Middle East expert, grimly said: “We didn’t even feel the impact of the sanctions just yet... We need to be ready for total isolation. I’m not panicking, just calling things by their proper name.”

Soloviev angrily sniped: “Gotcha. We should just lay down and die.”

Bagdasarov continued: “Now about Ukraine. I agree with Karen. We had prior experiences of bringing in our troops, destroying the military infrastructure and leaving. I think that our army fulfilled their task of demilitarization of the country by destroying most of their military installations... To restore their military they will need at least 10 years... Let Ukrainians do this denazification on their own. We can’t do it for them... As for their neutrality, yes, we should squeeze it out of them, and that’s it. We don’t need to stay there longer than necessary... Do we need to get into another Afghanistan, but even worse? There are more people and they’re more advanced in their handling of weapons. We don’t need that. Enough already... As for the sanctions, the world has never seen such massive sanctions.”

Dmitry Abzalov, director of the Center for Strategic Communications, pointed out that even though energy prices will go up for most of the West, it won’t do much to ease the pain for the Russians: “We’ll still be the ones taking the terminal hit, and an incomparable one, even though other countries will also suffer some losses. We’ll all be going to hell together—except for maybe China—but going to hell together with the French or Germans won’t make our people feel any better.” Abzalov argued that after taking additional territories in Eastern Ukraine, Russia should get out of Dodge, believing that all Western companies that temporarily paused their operations in Russia would then rush to come back. “It’s about toxicity, not just sanctions... It will go away once the situation stabilizes.”

Prior to the invasion of Ukraine, state TV experts predicted that Russia could overtake it in a matter of minutes or a few days. Stunned by the fierce resistance on the part of Ukrainians, Soloviev described them as “the army that is second in Europe, after ours, and which has been prepared for eight years and armed with everything you can imagine.”

Soloviev added: “This is a frightening war that is being waged against us by America.”

I believe someone in the Russian government has said that they would take Crimea and the seperatist areas in the Donbas at this point. Zelensky has recently backed down from his stance to liberate all of Ukraine, I believe. It sounds like there's a chance for a cessation.

I suppose the sticking point would be what forces the Ukranians would maintain? You can hardly trust Putin not to enter Ukraine again, but he will want a disarmed Ukraine.
 
I believe someone in the Russian government has said that they would take Crimea and the seperatist areas in the Donbas at this point. Zelensky has recently backed down from his stance to liberate all of Ukraine, I believe. It sounds like there's a chance for a cessation.
I suppose the sticking point would be what forces the Ukranians would maintain? You can hardly trust Putin not to enter Ukraine again, but he will want a disarmed Ukraine.
Disarmed how? Any sovereign state, short of engaging in nuclear proliferation, has the right to build up forces of whatever size it deems necessary. And if you were Ukraine, you'd craft one of the strongest forces in Europe starting as soon as the Russians leave. Hard to envisage any set of terms that doesn't leave a bitter stink in Ukranian nostrils. They will never trust Russia again.