Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

More coverage on this. Pretty remarkable.

 
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GlastonSpur said:
Yes. I'd be interested to see a translated transcript of what was said - whether they called it a "war" etc.

Edit - found an article that includes the above: https://news.yahoo.com/even-russia-state-tv-admits-160508384.html

"Andrey Sidorov, deputy dean of world politics at Moscow State University, cautioned: “For our country, this period won’t be easy. It will be very difficult. It might be even more difficult than it was for the Soviet Union from 1945 until the 1960s... We’re more integrated into the global economy than the Soviet Union, we’re more dependent on imports—and the main part is that the Cold War is the war of the minds, first and foremost. Unfortunately, the Soviet Union had a consolidating idea on which its system was built. Unlike the Soviet Union, Russia has nothing like that to offer.”

State TV pundit Karen Shakhnazarov pointed out: “The war in Ukraine paints a frightening picture, it has a very oppressive influence on our society. Ukraine, whichever way you see it, is something with which Russia has thousands of human links. The suffering of one group of innocents does not compensate for the suffering of other innocent people... I don’t see the probability of denazification of such an enormous country. We would need to bring in 1.5 million soldiers to control all of it. At the same time, I don’t see any political power that would consolidate the Ukrainian society in a pro-Russian direction... Those who talked of their mass attraction to Russia obviously didn’t see things the way they are. The most important thing in this scenario is to stop our military action. Others will say that sanctions will remain. Yes, they will remain, but in my opinion discontinuing the active phase of a military operation is very important.”

Resorting to the traditional propaganda tropes prevalent in Russian state media, Shakhnazarov accused the United States of starting the war—and trying to prolong it indefinitely. He speculated: “What are they achieving by prolonging the war? First of all, public opinion within Russia is changing. People are shocked by the masses of refugees, the humanitarian catastrophe, people start to imagine themselves in their place. It’s starting to affect them. To say that the Nazis are doing that is not quite convincing, strictly speaking... On top of that, economic sanctions will start to affect them, and seriously. There will probably be scarcity. A lot of products we don’t produce, even the simplest ones. There’ll be unemployment. They really thought through these sanctions, they’re hitting us with real continuity. It’s a well-planned operation... Yes, this is a war of the United States with Russia... These sanctions are hitting us very precisely.

“This threatens the change of public opinion in Russia, the destabilization of our power structures... with the possibility of a full destabilization of the country and a civil war. This apocalyptic scenario is based on the script written by the Americans. They benefit through us dragging out the military operation. We need to end it somehow. If we achieved the demilitarization and freed the Donbas, that is sufficient... I have a hard time imagining taking cities such as Kyiv. I can’t imagine how that would look. If this picture starts to transform into an absolute humanitarian disaster, even our close allies like China and India will be forced to distance themselves from us. This public opinion, with which they’re saturating the entire world, can play out badly for us... Ending this operation will stabilize things within the country.”

The host frowned at the apparent departure from the officially approved line of thinking and deferred to the commander-in-chief. However, the next expert agreed with Shakhnazarov. Semyon Bagdasarov, a Russian Middle East expert, grimly said: “We didn’t even feel the impact of the sanctions just yet... We need to be ready for total isolation. I’m not panicking, just calling things by their proper name.”

Soloviev angrily sniped: “Gotcha. We should just lay down and die.”

Bagdasarov continued: “Now about Ukraine. I agree with Karen. We had prior experiences of bringing in our troops, destroying the military infrastructure and leaving. I think that our army fulfilled their task of demilitarization of the country by destroying most of their military installations... To restore their military they will need at least 10 years... Let Ukrainians do this denazification on their own. We can’t do it for them... As for their neutrality, yes, we should squeeze it out of them, and that’s it. We don’t need to stay there longer than necessary... Do we need to get into another Afghanistan, but even worse? There are more people and they’re more advanced in their handling of weapons. We don’t need that. Enough already... As for the sanctions, the world has never seen such massive sanctions.”

Dmitry Abzalov, director of the Center for Strategic Communications, pointed out that even though energy prices will go up for most of the West, it won’t do much to ease the pain for the Russians: “We’ll still be the ones taking the terminal hit, and an incomparable one, even though other countries will also suffer some losses. We’ll all be going to hell together—except for maybe China—but going to hell together with the French or Germans won’t make our people feel any better.” Abzalov argued that after taking additional territories in Eastern Ukraine, Russia should get out of Dodge, believing that all Western companies that temporarily paused their operations in Russia would then rush to come back. “It’s about toxicity, not just sanctions... It will go away once the situation stabilizes.”

Prior to the invasion of Ukraine, state TV experts predicted that Russia could overtake it in a matter of minutes or a few days. Stunned by the fierce resistance on the part of Ukrainians, Soloviev described them as “the army that is second in Europe, after ours, and which has been prepared for eight years and armed with everything you can imagine.”

Soloviev added: “This is a frightening war that is being waged against us by America.”
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It's amazing that their claims don't seem to have to make any sense at all. They generally seem to talk sense for the beginning and then revert to conspiracy theories that are in no way compatible with what they said a few sentences before.
 
Sir Matt said:
The point about surrounding key cities makes me think they see more upside in razing cities than trying to take over more of Ukraine. They'll end up murdering hundreds of thousands of civilians...
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They're trying to effectively strangle zalensky into surrendering to stop the killing of his people. The only way this doesn’t stop is if the Ukrainians go on the offensive in these areas from the outside.
 
GlastonSpur said:
Yes. I'd be interested to see a translated transcript of what was said - whether they called it a "war" etc.

Edit - found an article that includes the above: https://news.yahoo.com/even-russia-state-tv-admits-160508384.html

"Andrey Sidorov, deputy dean of world politics at Moscow State University, cautioned: “For our country, this period won’t be easy. It will be very difficult. It might be even more difficult than it was for the Soviet Union from 1945 until the 1960s... We’re more integrated into the global economy than the Soviet Union, we’re more dependent on imports—and the main part is that the Cold War is the war of the minds, first and foremost. Unfortunately, the Soviet Union had a consolidating idea on which its system was built. Unlike the Soviet Union, Russia has nothing like that to offer.”

State TV pundit Karen Shakhnazarov pointed out: “The war in Ukraine paints a frightening picture, it has a very oppressive influence on our society. Ukraine, whichever way you see it, is something with which Russia has thousands of human links. The suffering of one group of innocents does not compensate for the suffering of other innocent people... I don’t see the probability of denazification of such an enormous country. We would need to bring in 1.5 million soldiers to control all of it. At the same time, I don’t see any political power that would consolidate the Ukrainian society in a pro-Russian direction... Those who talked of their mass attraction to Russia obviously didn’t see things the way they are. The most important thing in this scenario is to stop our military action. Others will say that sanctions will remain. Yes, they will remain, but in my opinion discontinuing the active phase of a military operation is very important.”

Resorting to the traditional propaganda tropes prevalent in Russian state media, Shakhnazarov accused the United States of starting the war—and trying to prolong it indefinitely. He speculated: “What are they achieving by prolonging the war? First of all, public opinion within Russia is changing. People are shocked by the masses of refugees, the humanitarian catastrophe, people start to imagine themselves in their place. It’s starting to affect them. To say that the Nazis are doing that is not quite convincing, strictly speaking... On top of that, economic sanctions will start to affect them, and seriously. There will probably be scarcity. A lot of products we don’t produce, even the simplest ones. There’ll be unemployment. They really thought through these sanctions, they’re hitting us with real continuity. It’s a well-planned operation... Yes, this is a war of the United States with Russia... These sanctions are hitting us very precisely.

“This threatens the change of public opinion in Russia, the destabilization of our power structures... with the possibility of a full destabilization of the country and a civil war. This apocalyptic scenario is based on the script written by the Americans. They benefit through us dragging out the military operation. We need to end it somehow. If we achieved the demilitarization and freed the Donbas, that is sufficient... I have a hard time imagining taking cities such as Kyiv. I can’t imagine how that would look. If this picture starts to transform into an absolute humanitarian disaster, even our close allies like China and India will be forced to distance themselves from us. This public opinion, with which they’re saturating the entire world, can play out badly for us... Ending this operation will stabilize things within the country.”

The host frowned at the apparent departure from the officially approved line of thinking and deferred to the commander-in-chief. However, the next expert agreed with Shakhnazarov. Semyon Bagdasarov, a Russian Middle East expert, grimly said: “We didn’t even feel the impact of the sanctions just yet... We need to be ready for total isolation. I’m not panicking, just calling things by their proper name.”

Soloviev angrily sniped: “Gotcha. We should just lay down and die.”

Bagdasarov continued: “Now about Ukraine. I agree with Karen. We had prior experiences of bringing in our troops, destroying the military infrastructure and leaving. I think that our army fulfilled their task of demilitarization of the country by destroying most of their military installations... To restore their military they will need at least 10 years... Let Ukrainians do this denazification on their own. We can’t do it for them... As for their neutrality, yes, we should squeeze it out of them, and that’s it. We don’t need to stay there longer than necessary... Do we need to get into another Afghanistan, but even worse? There are more people and they’re more advanced in their handling of weapons. We don’t need that. Enough already... As for the sanctions, the world has never seen such massive sanctions.”

Dmitry Abzalov, director of the Center for Strategic Communications, pointed out that even though energy prices will go up for most of the West, it won’t do much to ease the pain for the Russians: “We’ll still be the ones taking the terminal hit, and an incomparable one, even though other countries will also suffer some losses. We’ll all be going to hell together—except for maybe China—but going to hell together with the French or Germans won’t make our people feel any better.” Abzalov argued that after taking additional territories in Eastern Ukraine, Russia should get out of Dodge, believing that all Western companies that temporarily paused their operations in Russia would then rush to come back. “It’s about toxicity, not just sanctions... It will go away once the situation stabilizes.”

Prior to the invasion of Ukraine, state TV experts predicted that Russia could overtake it in a matter of minutes or a few days. Stunned by the fierce resistance on the part of Ukrainians, Soloviev described them as “the army that is second in Europe, after ours, and which has been prepared for eight years and armed with everything you can imagine.”

Soloviev added: “This is a frightening war that is being waged against us by America.”
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Interesting. This is turning into a complete shit show for Russia. They’re taking massive casualties and losing lots of equipment. Every single day the longer war takes the billions more it costs, whilst the economy’s been crippled by sanctions at the same time. The country will be bankrupt. Their conventional weaponry has been proven a modern day version of the Lada, their army poorly trained, the tactics outdated and the majority of their soldiers have no interest in fighting fellow Slavs anyway, let alone their closest Slavic brothers. The Yanks somehow know exactly every move the Russians are making even before the majority of Russian armed forces army probably do. The (oppressed) public opinion in the main populated area’s will be disgusted by the war (make no mistake, your average Joeseph Blogski will know full well of exactly of what’s going on in the Ukraine even if it’s simply because of the very large amount of Russians working for Western, Japanese and Korean employers..) and the Oliarchs will want the war to stop now their wealth is under threat. The only chance of a quick way out in terms of a military victory would seemingly be by using unconventional weapons, but that would most certainly turn China & India against the Russians and leave them isolated with the likes of Belarus, Syria and North Korea. Putin himself has done irreparable damage to his legacy and if he wants any chance of being remembered slightly more favorable than a blood thirsty murderous tyrant, he’ll need to get the hell out Ukraine asap and take his loses. And infuriatingly all at the cost of a tragic humanitarian disaster for the Ukraine and it’s population. An utterly senseless & foolish act of aggression committed by a bunch of gangsters.
 
Rhyme Animal said:
Wow, that’s mad if true. Hitler and many prominent Nazis were also heavily into the occult and mysticism right…?

Apologies @Needham if this comparison is also ‘dumb as feck’.
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No, I'd go along with that one. Rasputinism was born in Russia. Even Stalin, who tried to stamp out religious belief in the SU, had skyscrapers laid out according to 'sacred geometric principles' or something. By looking to the occult, Putin is only being 'more Russian'. It'll take him to eastern orthodox heaven but also partly explains the thinking behind this geostrategic disaster of a war.
 
RedSky said:
What do people think Biden should be doing right now? He's making it his mission to try and tank the Russian economy while sending gear and weaponry the Ukrainians can actually use. He can't put boots on the ground and nor can they put a no fly zone over Ukraine. The only thing Biden can realistically do is send troops and gear to the NATO borders to ensure that it stops at the Ukraine border.
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I would think about going into Western Ukraine, and creating a line the Russians won't want to approach. It will make things easier for refugees and to resupply the Ukrainian troops. Russia have no exclusive right to operate in Ukraine, the govt would invite them in.

Call it a "denazification" and then they can't say they're against it. (That's a joke)

I think we need to find a way to get jets and tanks and whatever else they need. Drones especially, because they could surely be piloted by people outside Ukraine and Russia would have no way of knowing if they use the same drones that Ukraine has already.
 
Needham said:
Disarmed how? Any sovereign state, short of engaging in nuclear proliferation, has the right to build up forces of whatever size it deems necessary. And if you were Ukraine, you'd craft one of the strongest forces in Europe starting as soon as the Russians leave. Hard to envisage any set of terms that doesn't leave a bitter stink in Ukranian nostrils. They will never trust Russia again.
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It would have to be voluntary. But like you said, no one will trust Putin now. I'm hoping for a Russia collapse so Crimea and Donbas can go back to Ukraine. A lot of oil deposits will go to the country that controls them.
 
Smacks of North Korea militarizing the joint industrial complex at Kaesong. That's Russia's level now.

 
The sanctioning of oligarch reeks hypocrisy to the fullest, even if the intention is good ( to hurt Putin )

So all these time, they know that the money is dirty, but accepted his investment, and only now that they need to "off" Putin, they somehow have all the dirt ready to freeze his asset in less than 7 days notice?
 
Sky1981 said:
The sanctioning of oligarch reeks hypocrisy to the fullest, even if the intention is good ( to hurt Putin )

So all these time, they know that the money is dirty, but accepted his investment, and only now that they need to "off" Putin, they somehow have all the dirt ready to freeze his asset in less than 7 days notice?
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How the various Oligarchs got their money through domestic means within Russia is generally not of interest to most nations. Most of the money belongs to Putin anyway, so he's the one they are after.
 
Raoul said:
Sadly, this sort of nonsense will continue non-stop until we get rid of this guy once and for all.
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Next week: Zelenskyy's Space Laser program.

In addition to refuting the lies, the US, UK, France, etc. should bring up Russia's proven use of chemical weapons at home and abroad on its own citizenry. Or put together a presentation about how Putin is a pedo.
 
RedSky said:
What do people think Biden should be doing right now? He's making it his mission to try and tank the Russian economy while sending gear and weaponry the Ukrainians can actually use. He can't put boots on the ground and nor can they put a no fly zone over Ukraine. The only thing Biden can realistically do is send troops and gear to the NATO borders to ensure that it stops at the Ukraine border.
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Or he can substantially reinforce the presence of troops im Poland and in the Baltic states to surround the Kaliningrad Oblast with one purpose: take Putin's eyes off the ball and make him believe that NATO is playing his own playbook from before the invasion. This is what retired Maj. Gen. Paul Eaton said earlier this morning at the end of his analysis here. At the end of the day, the endgame is to put Putin in a position where he would have little to no bargaining power when discussing terms to end the conflict if he survives until then.




calodo2003 said:
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So the man has his own modern-day version of Rasputin after all.
 
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Needham said:
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What's Trumps angle here? Just to make Biden look weaker? Because he still won't say anything directly about Putin or Russia, I wonder if his handlers are making him push this agenda (putting Chinese symbols on a US jet and bombing Russia so they go to war). There's a reason he's saying this, he doesn't get ideas in his head himself
 
Trump is a moron, thank feck he's not the POTUS or we'd all be screwed already
 
atkar83 said:
What's Trumps angle here? Just to make Biden look weaker? Because he still won't say anything directly about Putin or Russia, I wonder if his handlers are making him push this agenda (putting Chinese symbols on a US jet and bombing Russia so they go to war). There's a reason he's saying this, he doesn't get ideas in his head himself
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Trump's transactional. With outflow of russian money being stopped, he has no purpose for them for now. So he puts on his political hat.
 
So Russia has suddenly gone back to the tactics of the very first hours of the invasion and sent long-range missiles into Lutsk, Ivano-Frankivsk and Dnipro, seemingly at airfields again. That seems a little desperate at this stage.
 
MTF said:
Absolute War: Soviet Russia in the Second World War by Chris Bellamy, was what I read to learn more about the war. People also talk a lot about David Glantz as one of the leading Eastern Front historians, and When Titans Clashed I think is his overview of the war book, besides his many other works about specific battles or aspects of the war.

I also read In Deadly Combat: A German Soldier's Memoir of the Eastern Front, which as the name says is a bit of the view of the war from a German foot-soldier's perspective. I've found that perspective interesting once I get some sense of the bigger picture, to know what it was like on the ground especially for the losing side (a lot of death).
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Very interesting, thanks for that!
 
Sir Matt said:
The Ukrainians can't operate Patriot missiles so the US would have to send Americans to operate them (like the Russians who shot down MH17 from the "separatist" Buk). They can operate the Buks, S-300s, and other Soviet-make anti-aircraft weapons systems that some other NATO countries have. They would be more useful than Patriot missiles or jets now. The US and NATO should facilitate the transfer of these systems to Ukraine ASAP and backfill them with new alternatives.
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I don’t doubt that’s the top reason in American politicians’ minds but it’s not just that, to be honest.

The Patriot is a very good missile system but it’s also a large and expensive one and on its own it stands out, so it could be targeted (by a competent airforce, anyway) and taken out. It’s supposed to be just one layer of a holistic air defence solution, complemented by an array short and medium range missile batteries, a wide radar network and an airforce to protect it.

I have doubts that Ukraine has the current capacity to host such system (training aside) without putting a huge target on its back. I reckon MANPADS are Ukraine’s best defence at the moment, as they are cheaper, ubiquitous and a nightmare for Russians to weed out.
 
RedSky said:
What do people think Biden should be doing right now? He's making it his mission to try and tank the Russian economy while sending gear and weaponry the Ukrainians can actually use. He can't put boots on the ground and nor can they put a no fly zone over Ukraine. The only thing Biden can realistically do is send troops and gear to the NATO borders to ensure that it stops at the Ukraine border.
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What he is doing right now. Step the sanctions up further, if anything. He's sending weapons that can actually be used. All these Republican and fringe politicians have figured out its a good beating stick to suggest hair brained ideas like sending totally unsuitable equipment to Ukraine.
 
atkar83 said:
What's Trumps angle here? Just to make Biden look weaker? Because he still won't say anything directly about Putin or Russia, I wonder if his handlers are making him push this agenda (putting Chinese symbols on a US jet and bombing Russia so they go to war). There's a reason he's saying this, he doesn't get ideas in his head himself
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Because he realises that even his voter base is against Russia here and he was known as Putins lapdog only a few months ago?
 
RedSky said:
What do people think Biden should be doing right now? He's making it his mission to try and tank the Russian economy while sending gear and weaponry the Ukrainians can actually use. He can't put boots on the ground and nor can they put a no fly zone over Ukraine. The only thing Biden can realistically do is send troops and gear to the NATO borders to ensure that it stops at the Ukraine border.
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Beans said:
I would think about going into Western Ukraine, and creating a line the Russians won't want to approach. It will make things easier for refugees and to resupply the Ukrainian troops. Russia have no exclusive right to operate in Ukraine, the govt would invite them in.

Call it a "denazification" and then they can't say they're against it. (That's a joke)

I think we need to find a way to get jets and tanks and whatever else they need. Drones especially, because they could surely be piloted by people outside Ukraine and Russia would have no way of knowing if they use the same drones that Ukraine has already.
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Personally I think it is important that Ukraine is seen to win this war on its own with as little involvement from the US as possible. US is the big bad enemy that Putin uses/needs to strenghten his position, direct US involvement would only increase his support and lengthen his campaign. Whereas losing a war to Ukraine utterly cripples him domestically and makes his position untenable.

Its crazy to think we are even talking about Ukraine winning this war, two weeks ago nobody really thought that possible, but here we are.

Don't think I disagree with any of US/Biden's actions so far. Jets is a tricky subject but I do see their point. I think the whole Poland giving migs to US for them to decide not to use them was a planned/staged public show of the US demonstrating they are not getting involved, this is Ukraines war (while hopefully transporting as much weaponry/ammo accross the Polish border as they can handle, plus intelligence and advice).
 
Putin has just approved sending 16 thousands "volunteers" from Middle East to go to war with Ukraine
 
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