Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Clear sign that China doesn't intend to join the majority of the world as their UN Security Council OSCE rep characterizes the Ukraine and Russia negotiations as enthusiastic and important dialogue

China expresses no urgency for the people suffering in Ukraine.
 
ooeat0meoo said:
Clear sign that China doesn't intend to join the majority of the world as their UN Security Council OSCE rep characterizes the Ukraine and Russia negotiations as enthusiastic and important dialogue

China expresses no urgency for the people suffering in Ukraine.
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They can try to slip around as much as they can, but you can't put a lipstick on a pig. China has already made its bed with Russia and is likely to die on that hill.
 
Wing Attack Plan R said:
I kinda like to see a poll here to gauge what everyone’s belief is regarding Putin’s real objectives: is he stopping with Ukraine? Are the Baltic nations next, followed by Poland and Slovakia? Will he continue creeping westward? I personally think that is Putin’s true goal: to retake everything formerly controlled by the Soviets.

So in other words, everything short of taking him out is merely appeasement. It pushes the decision into someone else while allowing Putin to grow stronger. As much as we don’t like it, war is inevitable, and by that I mean WWIII.
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I don't believe he's actually thinking that far ahead so specifically. I think he'll go as far as he perceives the sum of his military + influence can take him, along all parts of Russia's border. But I'd be much more worried if he wasn't getting so bogged down in Ukraine. It is changing the calculus for all the countries around him and must be changing the calculus even for Putin himself.

That's why I said I don't think he's thinking of next big moves anymore, as the present situation doesn't allow him to. The reason why the tone and actions are becoming more aggressive isn't because he has more aggressive designs on the rest of Eastern Europe since this started, but rather because his own situation has gotten more precarious and he is more aggressively trying to eke out either a costly victory or a more favorable resolution.

Morally I feel terrible though, that more can't be done to help Ukraine achieve a military victory (pushing back to pre-invasion de facto borders) that would be well within reach of NATO air, ground and naval forces, because of the threat of nuclear war.
 
Wing Attack Plan R said:
I kinda like to see a poll here to gauge what everyone’s belief is regarding Putin’s real objectives: is he stopping with Ukraine? Are the Baltic nations next, followed by Poland and Slovakia? Will he continue creeping westward? I personally think that is Putin’s true goal: to retake everything formerly controlled by the Soviets.

So in other words, everything short of taking him out is merely appeasement. It pushes the decision onto someone else while allowing Putin to grow stronger. As much as we don’t like it, war is inevitable, and by that I mean WWIII.

Do we really want another Cold War with sporadic outbreaks of violently hot war? Democracy itself is at stake, and I think In this globalized economy we are able to see that dictatorships and totalitarianism just don’t mesh with a viable future. Putin is now a war criminal. There is no way back into the graces of the G8 or the security council with him in charge; he’s an international pariah. So it all ends for him with a rope. In the meantime, how many lives are we willing to sacrifice to continue living in our bubble?
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He won't even want or be able to occupy Ukraine long-term. Guess is his objective is to secure recognition for the separatist republics and Crimea while exacting a formal no NATO agreement. Don't see him moving anywhere else.
 
The UN Security Council's focus is on the OSCE ( Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe)

The UN Security Council Russian Federation representative justifying the killing of the American in Ukraine a couple days ago by saying, "He was not only a journalist, but he was also a film maker"

In addition, the representative from the UAE concluded with his statement by offering the Russian Federation rep Vasily Nebenzya a rim-job for doing such a great job as the UNSC chair.

The Ukrainian UN rep Sergiy Kyslytsya granted permission to address the UNSC. He asks for Russia to release the two abducted mayors. Asking for the OSCE to thoroughly document the war crimes by Russia in Ukraine.
More from Rep Kyslytsya: "let's put swords to the plow", "good-wins-evil": another Soviet gift. All this "dancing with a tambourine" of Tuvan shoigus around idols while nebenzami are allowed to sit in a chair of the USSR in the Security Council and as zombies to ring Putin's mantras
 
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Wing Attack Plan R said:
I kinda like to see a poll here to gauge what everyone’s belief is regarding Putin’s real objectives: is he stopping with Ukraine? Are the Baltic nations next, followed by Poland and Slovakia? Will he continue creeping westward? I personally think that is Putin’s true goal: to retake everything formerly controlled by the Soviets.

So in other words, everything short of taking him out is merely appeasement. It pushes the decision onto someone else while allowing Putin to grow stronger. As much as we don’t like it, war is inevitable, and by that I mean WWIII.

Do we really want another Cold War with sporadic outbreaks of violently hot war? Democracy itself is at stake, and I think In this globalized economy we are able to see that dictatorships and totalitarianism just don’t mesh with a viable future. Putin is now a war criminal. There is no way back into the graces of the G8 or the security council with him in charge; he’s an international pariah. So it all ends for him with a rope. In the meantime, how many lives are we willing to sacrifice to continue living in our bubble?
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World War 3 is curtains for all of us. That is whats at stake. cnuty Putin knows this .

You say democracy is at stake - its much more than that.
 
Smores said:
This looks like Putin growing stronger to you?
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Absolutely. He’s consolidating his power and achieving his objectives. If China assists Russia in getting around sanctions, he will have forged an alliance that gives him everything. The west/NATO is (rightly) afraid of nuclear war, and so Putin is taking all he can now before returning to the “negotiating “ table.
 
Wing Attack Plan R said:
I kinda like to see a poll here to gauge what everyone’s belief is regarding Putin’s real objectives: is he stopping with Ukraine? Are the Baltic nations next, followed by Poland and Slovakia? Will he continue creeping westward? I personally think that is Putin’s true goal: to retake everything formerly controlled by the Soviets.

So in other words, everything short of taking him out is merely appeasement. It pushes the decision onto someone else while allowing Putin to grow stronger. As much as we don’t like it, war is inevitable, and by that I mean WWIII.

Do we really want another Cold War with sporadic outbreaks of violently hot war? Democracy itself is at stake, and I think In this globalized economy we are able to see that dictatorships and totalitarianism just don’t mesh with a viable future. Putin is now a war criminal. There is no way back into the graces of the G8 or the security council with him in charge; he’s an international pariah. So it all ends for him with a rope. In the meantime, how many lives are we willing to sacrifice to continue living in our bubble?
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Putin's objective is to destroy the existence of Ukraine as a free, independent and democratic nation - because he's fears the example it will otherwise set for the people of Russia.

He won't be able to achieve that objective, far less trying to conquer a Baltic state (or any other NATO-member country). If he did try to conquer a Baltic state, and the fight remained non-nuclear, his invading/attacking forces would be completely wiped out within a few hours ... and Putin knows that.

In his frustration he might try annexing Moldova, but that's the limit of what he might try.
 
Wing Attack Plan R said:
Absolutely. He’s consolidating his power and achieving his objectives. If China assists Russia in getting around sanctions, he will have forged an alliance that gives him everything. The west/NATO is (rightly) afraid of nuclear war, and so Putin is taking all he can now before returning to the “negotiating “ table.
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At the very least this invasion has shown the Russian military not to be the massive threat it was before. That is not a win for somebody as obsessed with their image as Putin is.

That’s aside from the fact that they’ll never be able to hold Ukraine long term, it’s a metric shit tonne of egg on his face. He may ‘win’ short term just by virtue of how many people they have but that’s far from what he expected/wanted
 
Wing Attack Plan R said:
I kinda like to see a poll here to gauge what everyone’s belief is regarding Putin’s real objectives: is he stopping with Ukraine? Are the Baltic nations next, followed by Poland and Slovakia? Will he continue creeping westward? I personally think that is Putin’s true goal: to retake everything formerly controlled by the Soviets.

So in other words, everything short of taking him out is merely appeasement. It pushes the decision onto someone else while allowing Putin to grow stronger. As much as we don’t like it, war is inevitable, and by that I mean WWIII.

Do we really want another Cold War with sporadic outbreaks of violently hot war? Democracy itself is at stake, and I think In this globalized economy we are able to see that dictatorships and totalitarianism just don’t mesh with a viable future. Putin is now a war criminal. There is no way back into the graces of the G8 or the security council with him in charge; he’s an international pariah. So it all ends for him with a rope. In the meantime, how many lives are we willing to sacrifice to continue living in our bubble?
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Fully expect that after the outcome of this is decided everyone around Russia that isn't in Russia will be seeking to join a western alliance, be it EU or NATO.

I can say with full (maybe misplaced) confidence that he wouldn't dream of going after a NATO state, former Soviet or not. It's WW3 and he's not gone full tear the world down, he doesn't want to die nor does he want to lose his grip on power (although I suspect the latter might be challenged when this is over with).

He's not gonna get the chance to go after anyone else I don't think, they'll have already started the processes to protect themselves and his military are fecked either way, laid out in front of the world too for full humiliation.

Anyone who thinks the categorical revulsion and unified response of both corporate and governmental sides to Russia right now as appeasement clearly just wants to get their rocks off on seeing war imagery. We've given the strongest response as a collective in history short of engaging directly. It staggers me when people think we've done nothing in response.
 
Mciahel Goodman said:
He won't even want or be able to occupy Ukraine long-term. Guess is his objective is to secure recognition for the separatist republics and Crimea while exacting a formal no NATO agreement. Don't see him moving anywhere else.
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I think one of the guests on HBO's Bill Maher mentioned Putin's ask was:
1) Ukraine to pledge not to join NATO
2) Crimea recognized as part of Russia
3) Recognition of the two separatist regions of Luhansk and Donbas (not sure if this meant separation from Ukraine or being republics within Federation of Ukraine)

Obv a negotiated solution >>> protracted war
 
Wing Attack Plan R said:
Absolutely. He’s consolidating his power and achieving his objectives. If China assists Russia in getting around sanctions, he will have forged an alliance that gives him everything. The west/NATO is (rightly) afraid of nuclear war, and so Putin is taking all he can now before returning to the “negotiating “ table.
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Consolidating his power? No, he's turned Russia into a pariah state, with greatly reduced military and economic power, and virtually zero diplomatic influence because nothing that Russian diplomats say from here on will be believed as long as Putin's regime remains in power. And that's to say nothing of rising unrest within Russia.

He's weakening his military on a daily basis - another month of this and large sections of his invading troops may well crumble, then cut and run. Moreover, the Russian economy is in freefall and nothing the Chinese can do will be more than slight mitigation around the edges.
 
Suedesi said:
I think one of the guests on HBO's Bill Maher mentioned Putin's ask was:
1) Ukraine to pledge not to join NATO
2) Crimea recognized as part of Russia
3) Recognition of the two separatist regions of Luhansk and Donbas (not sure if this meant separation from Ukraine or being republics within Federation of Ukraine)

Obv a negotiated solution >>> protracted war
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Putin doesn't have the resources for a protracted war. He's already lobbying China for help only 3 weeks in.
 
Suedesi said:
I think one of the guests on HBO's Bill Maher mentioned Putin's ask was:
1) Ukraine to pledge not to join NATO
2) Crimea recognized as part of Russia
3) Recognition of the two separatist regions of Luhansk and Donbas (not sure if this meant separation from Ukraine or being republics within Federation of Ukraine)

Obv a negotiated solution >>> protracted war
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The Ukrainian government might agree to the 1st two items, provided they can still join the EU. And if they join the EU, then membership of NATO becomes less important because EU member states collectively have considerable defensive forces, some of which Ukraine could invite into their country.

They might also agree to item 3, provided it involves only the pre-invasion parts of Luhansk and Donbas.
 
moses said:
Can you not read? Matt is standing with them. So they'll be fine.
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As a woman bleeds out and her husband cries in anguish, Matt will be there to inhale deeply and say "You're crying now but you weren't crying when Mark Crossley saved the only penalty I ever missed. Just sayin..."
 
GlastonSpur said:
The Ukrainian government might agree to the 1st two items, provided they can still join the EU. And if they join the EU, then membership of NATO becomes less important because EU member states collectively have considerable defensive forces, some of which Ukraine could invite into their country.

They might also agree to item 3, provided it involves only the pre-invasion parts of Luhansk and Donbas.
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I think that's probably right, with pre-invasion territorial limits being key.
 
Wing Attack Plan R said:
I kinda like to see a poll here to gauge what everyone’s belief is regarding Putin’s real objectives: is he stopping with Ukraine? Are the Baltic nations next, followed by Poland and Slovakia? Will he continue creeping westward? I personally think that is Putin’s true goal: to retake everything formerly controlled by the Soviets.

So in other words, everything short of taking him out is merely appeasement. It pushes the decision onto someone else while allowing Putin to grow stronger. As much as we don’t like it, war is inevitable, and by that I mean WWIII.

Do we really want another Cold War with sporadic outbreaks of violently hot war? Democracy itself is at stake, and I think In this globalized economy we are able to see that dictatorships and totalitarianism just don’t mesh with a viable future. Putin is now a war criminal. There is no way back into the graces of the G8 or the security council with him in charge; he’s an international pariah. So it all ends for him with a rope. In the meantime, how many lives are we willing to sacrifice to continue living in our bubble?
Click to expand...

I don't think any NATO state is seriously under threat of Russian invasion. If it ever were then Russia has already abandoned that idea after seeing how their war against Ukraine is going. There is no way Russia can compete with Western armies - especially in an war of aggression - if not by using weapons that leave nothing to conquer. Against the NATO, the only thing in their arsenal is basically nuclear jihad.

I think your take on democracy being at stake is an interesting topic. I used to think that democracy as a form of government - altthough it is easily the most ethical one - has severe weaknesses compared to dictatorships if you are looking at it neutrally. Basically because dictators can make decisions much more quickly and see them through with much more consequence without having to deal with the opinion of majorites which can be manipulated quite easily. We see that in a lot of things: How China is aggressively expanding economically, how recklessly they can reform certain things (basically force ecological changes on their own population) and so fort

But this war has made me overthink this take. What we're witnessing is a dictator who is making terrible, terrible decisions based on miscalculations that can be attributed to wrong information. And the root of all that is the system of government. People are afraid to tell him the pleasant truth, instead they prefer agreeing with him because it means they aren't in danger. If you suppress opinions, the outcome can never be as good. No human can work properly in isolation, we aren't that objective and need others to discuss matters with. And I'm now convinced that even powers like China will face these difficulties. There's no progress without free minds, there are no good decisions by people who are surrounded by bootlickers.
 
Nuclear Jihad sounds horrific.

I was reading about the Tsar bomba test in 1960. It could cause 3rd degree burns 68 miles away from the blast zone, I mean wtf.

Houses hundreds of kilometres away were destroyed, doesn’t bare thinking about!
 
Raoul said:
Putin doesn't have the resources for a protracted war. He's already lobbying China for help only 3 weeks in.
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Russia is a small economy but it's asset rich - gas, oil, iron, manganese, chromium, nickel, platinum, titanium, copper, tin, lead, tungsten, gold. If he has to sell his soul to the Chinese in order to fund this, he will.
 
you wonder what Le Tiss’s agent is advising him when he comes out with all this crap.. or maybe he quit years ago as he’s a lost cause
 
dal said:
Nuclear Jihad sounds horrific.

I was reading about the Tsar bomba test in 1960. It could cause 3rd degree burns 68 miles away from the blast zone, I mean wtf.

Houses hundreds of kilometres away were destroyed, doesn’t bare thinking about!
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Yup. Nice thing though, there are no weapons like that anymore. China still keeps a few ones that have yield in megatons, while Russia and the US have the weapons mostly in hundreds-kiloton yield and are shunning the last ones in megaton yield.

Still pretty terrible weapons though.
 
Mr Pigeon said:
As a woman bleeds out and her husband cries in anguish, Matt will be there to inhale deeply and say "You're crying now but you weren't crying when Mark Crossley saved the only penalty I ever missed. Just sayin..."
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:lol:
 
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