Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Anyone else getting slightly annoyed at how much "NFZ" has hijacked the public discourse? No doubt Zelenskiy will ask for it and I get why , but I think Western pundits need to move on and discuss more practical solutions.
 
Looks like he's actually planning on following through with a false flag chemical attack

 
Here's a first hand account of it. As the guy says, they get to know the daily routines of their targets through watching them for days on end. Families and other activities are often part of that as he says. It used to happen a lot in Northern Ireland where the targets were living a 'normal' civilian life until the balaclava went on and guys would be hiding in hedges for days on end watching them play happy families.



What you're thinking of is probably the overwatch job where they do pick people off without much forward planning.

This is still an exception in the sense that it is more of a CT/black ops type off activities, rather than sniping in a conventional conflict that is currently taking place in Ukraine.
 
https://www.foxnews.com/world/russia-lavrov-plane-turns-around-flight-china-returns-moscow-report

It's fox so take it with a pinch of salt

But allegedly labrov was on a plane to China and turned round and headed back 4 hours into the flight

Believe biden has a call with xi tomorrow as well?

Possibly Russia is going to find themselves more isolated than they anticipated?
Wouldn't this be backed up by the Twitter thread of the flights of Government Russian planes shared earlier?

Pretty sure one turned around part way through the flight?
 
That's just nuts. But I'm not sure if those maths add up to 1/5th. Didn't the Russians employ 190,000 troops in Ukraine?

A big chunk of that number is support personnel doing logistics etc. If they're out of action the perfectly fit infantry soldier relying on them can't fight either. Hitting logistics convoys is a multiplier.
 
Wouldn't this be backed up by the Twitter thread of the flights of Government Russian planes shared earlier?

Pretty sure one turned around part way through the flight?

Yes and if there is a president to president call tomorrow with biden and xi I suspect there has been diplomats planning that call and agreeing 99.99999% of it prior to making a public announcement .... Some Chinese state media articles being critical of Russia in Ukraine as well ... Foreign minister turning back... All potentially points to China staying neutral and pretty much enforcing sanctions potentially
 
This is still an exception in the sense that it is more of a CT/black ops type off activities, rather than sniping in a conventional conflict that is currently taking place in Ukraine.

I think you are thinking of a marksman. And yeah, in a high tempo fight like Ukraine a sniper might work more like marksmen. Traditionally though snipers are more like special ops working to their own objectives away from the main battle.
 
The Daily Mirror reports that:

"... the highly-respected head of the Russian Central Bank bank boss has quit ... The former economic adviser to the Kremlin leader told reportedly told Putin that his invasion of Ukraine has plunged the Russian economy into a “sewer”

... She reportedly warned him [Putin] in a video meeting he will soon face tearaway inflation at around 70 per cent and shocked him with the sewer analogy."


Putin arrests own military chief and bank boss quits as inner circle crumbles - World News - Mirror Online
 
I'd be more excited if the source could write in complete English sentences but let's hope it's true.
 
The last official death toll from Russia's Defence Ministry was 498 dead Russian military personnel. That was 2 weeks ago. There have been no updates since.

Edit: There are reports - cited as credible by NBC's Richard Engel - that the Russians have brought mobile cremation machines into Ukraine in an effort to hide the number of returning coffins/body-bags from the Russian people: Russians Bring Mobile Cremation Machines Onto Battlefield In Ukraine - YouTube
 
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From the UN Ambassador to Ukraine:
The American biopharmaceutical company AbbVie has joined the sanctions against Russia and stopped the supply of Botox and fillers used in aesthetic medicine. This was reported in the company's press service.

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That's one way to piss off the oligarchs :lol:


 
Political scientist at RAND:


So we were wrong, but if our hypothesis turned out correct, even though it wasn't, we would be right. Maybe.

If you are going to own up to your mistake just do it. Don't try to minimize it by "understanding" how you came to be wrong.

To me it looks like they learned nothing, instead of analyzing why their initial hypothesis was wrong (that Russia would fight a war properly) and learn from it, they are just doubling down.

Edit: sorry for derailing, but these kind of statements irk me
 
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How long before Putin comes out and tells China or India not to join NATO or else...
 
So we were wrong, but if our hypothesis turned out correct, even though it wasn't, we would be right. Maybe.

If you are going to own up to your mistake just do it. Don't try to minimize it by "understanding" how you came to be wrong.

To me it looks like they learned nothing, instead of analyzing why their initial hypothesis was wrong (that Russia would fight a war properly) and learn from it, they are just doubling down.
Tbf, I don't think anyone, and I mean literally including all usint , fsb, Putin, his generals, and even Zelensky and his genstaff, expected RA to fall flat onto its face so spectacularly.
 
Anyone read this BBC article? Basically, beyond some dumb face-saving language, Putin's 'only' demanding Donbas (although that's not clear) and formal recognition for Crimea.

Sounds quite easily achievable but of course the biggest issue is the psychopath in the Kremlin and how much (not at all) anyone with their brain intact can trust him.

BBC News - Ukraine conflict: Putin lays out his demands in Turkish phone call
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60785754
 
Anyone read this BBC article? Basically, beyond some dumb face-saving language, Putin's 'only' demanding Donbas (although that's not clear) and formal recognition for Crimea.

Sounds quite easily achievable but of course the biggest issue is the psychopath in the Kremlin and how much (not at all) anyone with their brain intact can trust him.

BBC News - Ukraine conflict: Putin lays out his demands in Turkish phone call
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60785754

The only thing that's different from the initial demands seems to be that they realize they can't implement regime change so they are changing the terms of that slightly. They're still demanding Crimea, Donbas, neutrality, and demilitarization. Russia can't expect to lose the war but to get virtually all of its initial war aims.

I don't think Russia genuinely wants to make a deal though since they are trying to move more troops and assets into the theater. There's still a chance that some of the Russian units in Ukraine could break given how long they've been fighting, poor supply, and minimal success. I'm wondering if, in their increasing desperation, Russia tries to make some dangerous push at Odessa or Kyiv that gets destroyed.
 
Anyone read this BBC article? Basically, beyond some dumb face-saving language, Putin's 'only' demanding Donbas (although that's not clear) and formal recognition for Crimea.

Sounds quite easily achievable but of course the biggest issue is the psychopath in the Kremlin and how much (not at all) anyone with their brain intact can trust him.

BBC News - Ukraine conflict: Putin lays out his demands in Turkish phone call
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60785754
Best case is Ukraine recognising Crimea, some autonomy of Donbas but still part of the country and freedom to join any alliance . But can't see Putin ever agreeing to this, it would like massive failure for him after the big game talk before the invasion.