Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

A question that may have already been answered, though it is speculation i realise. Whats the consensus on here as to Russia's response if EU fasttrack membership for Ukraine and finland and sweden join NATO?
 
dinostar77 said:
A question that may have already been answered, though it is speculation i realise. Whats the consensus on here as to Russia's response if EU fasttrack membership for Ukraine and finland and sweden join NATO?
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Lots of angry words.
 
The BBC reports:

"The European Union has adopted a new raft of sanctions against Russia and entities with ties to the Kremlin. Details were published on Friday.
They include:
  • Asset freezes and travel bans for 216 individuals, including Vladimir Putin's two daughters, Ekhaterina Tikhonova, 37, and Maria Vorontsova, 37
  • Also affected are German Gref, head of Sberbank, Russia's largest bank; arms manufacturer and billionaire Oleg Deripaska; and defence ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov
  • Sanctions on 18 more firms, including five of Russia's biggest banks
  • A ban on coal imports, the first action the EU has so far taken against Russia's energy sector
  • An import ban on others goods - including wood, vodka and chemical products - estimated to make up at least 10% of all imports from Russia
  • A ban on the export of goods including jet fuel and transportation equipment
  • An export ban on technologies including quantum computers, advanced semiconductors and high-end electronics
  • A ban on Russian ships using EU ports
  • A ban on Russian and Belarusian trucks entering the EU's territory unless they are carrying medical products, food or humanitarian assistance"
 
dinostar77 said:
A question that may have already been answered, though it is speculation i realise. Whats the consensus on here as to Russia's response if EU fasttrack membership for Ukraine and finland and sweden join NATO?
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A Russian official said that if Finland and Sweden join there will be no nuclear response, and they will build up their defense on the border.
 
frostbite said:
Okay, but now the money you give to Russia is causing deaths in Ukraine. How do you live with that? It doesn't matter to the Germans because someone else is dying?
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It's a very personal question, but I personally can say that I worked actively on reducing this dependency on Russia. I did my part, and I am proud to see that the baltic states managed to break free from Russian gas now, as I also worked (a little bit) on their energy independence. I haven't voted for the governments who are responsible for this mess, actually I can say that I lost a job because of the stupid stupid energy politics of our government.

This is on the people who supported Merkel's horrible energy politics, not on me.
 
Russia is closing the offices of 15 Western NGOs, including the two leading rights organisations, Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch.

The Russian Ministry of Justice said the decision was taken due to Russian laws being violated, without providing details.

Amnesty International's director, Agnes Callamard, said it was the latest in a long list of organisations being punished for speaking the truth to the Russian authorities.

She said Amnesty would redouble efforts to expose what she described as Russia's "egregious human rights violations at home and abroad".

“The authorities are deeply mistaken if they believe that by closing down our office in Moscow they will stop our work documenting and exposing human rights violations," she said.

Russia tightened its already restrictive media law after invading Ukraine by introducing a new law which threatens to jail anyone Russia deems to have spread "fake" news about the armed forces.
 
Difficult to see how this will lead to anything other than a longrunning Ukrainian hatred of Russia for a long time to come after this.
 
africanspur said:
Difficult to see how this will lead to anything other than a longrunning Ukrainian hatred of Russia for a long time to come after this.
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Ukraine vs Russia in any sport is going to be very tense for the foreseeable future. The relationship is very hateful at this point and as you say may remain for a long time.

Eventually it'll probably recover but the relationship will be rough for a couple of decades I reckon.
 
africanspur said:
Difficult to see how this will lead to anything other than a longrunning Ukrainian hatred of Russia for a long time to come after this.
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Yep. The attitude is so different from when I started visiting in 2010. Completely unthinkable now to imagine Ukrainians being excited about the Sochi Olympics. Russian troops seized Crimea, then Russian insurgents arrived in Donbas soon after and changed the relationship between the two countries for ever.
 
VorZakone said:
Ukraine vs Russia in any sport is going to be very tense for the foreseeable future. The relationship is very hateful at this point and as you say may remain for a long time.
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They won’t play in football for a generation unless they both get to the latter stages of an international tournament.
 
TMDaines said:
Yep. The attitude is so different from when I started visiting in 2010. Completely unthinkable now to imagine Ukrainians being excited about the Sochi Olympics. Russian troops seized Crimea, then Russian insurgents arrived in Donbas soon after and changed the relationship between the two countries for ever.
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Yep. Relationships can eventually recover (Germany with rest of Europe, Germany and the Jewish people....kind of...as a whole) but these are people who culturally, at least from an outsider's perspective, seemed so close beforehand. Its almost like a civil war in a way?

Difficult to comprehend how they'll interact in a normal way afterwards.
 
TMDaines said:
They won’t play in football for a generation unless they both get to the latter stages of an international tournament.
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And before that, I can see all various chapters of radical supporters from any European national team going violent against Russian away supporters wherever they will go. It's sad, but that will stay for a while when a country becomes this hated.
 
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frostbite said:
Okay, but now the money you give to Russia is causing deaths in Ukraine. How do you live with that? It doesn't matter to the Germans because someone else is dying?
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Is that actually true going forwards though? The sanctions mean Russia can't buy weapons or components for weapons from any country. This means they don't have the components to manufacture any more tanks from what I have read. So the relationship between money and military weapons may not be a 1+1 effect
 
ThierryFabregas said:
Is that actually true going forwards though? The sanctions mean Russia can't buy weapons or components for weapons from any country. This means they don't have the components to manufacture any more tanks from what I have read. So the relationship between money and military weapons may not be a 1+1 effect
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From any country taking part in the sanctions. I’m not sure how much of it can be replaced by China, they said a Russian tank factory was shut down for lack of parts but I’ve not read anything looking at what it will mean exactly for Russia’s military equipment.

If China don’t produce it now they’ll likely be looking to produce it. I think China see Russia as their main ally going forward, even if the money made is negligible, they’ll want a functioning Russian army…surely?

Or will China only need debt to conquer the world? For another thread.
 
VorZakone said:
Ukraine vs Russia in any sport is going to be very tense for the foreseeable future. The relationship is very hateful at this point and as you say may remain for a long time.

Eventually it'll probably recover but the relationship will be rough for a couple of decades I reckon.
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I can't see Russia being allowed back into international sports any time soon and maybe not team sports either.
 
stefan92 said:
It's a very personal question, but I personally can say that I worked actively on reducing this dependency on Russia. I did my part, and I am proud to see that the baltic states managed to break free from Russian gas now, as I also worked (a little bit) on their energy independence. I haven't voted for the governments who are responsible for this mess, actually I can say that I lost a job because of the stupid stupid energy politics of our government.

This is on the people who supported Merkel's horrible energy politics, not on me.
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It seems that the current German Chancellor also wants to stop getting gas from Russia "very soon".

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...gas-imports-olaf-scholz-boris-johnson-ukraine

I have no idea what "very soon" means, but anyway, I hope Germany can achieve that surprisingly sooner than what we expect. It is weird wanting to help Ukraine and at the same time give a billion euros to Putin every day.
 
Beans said:
From any country taking part in the sanctions. I’m not sure how much of it can be replaced by China, they said a Russian tank factory was shut down for lack of parts but I’ve not read anything looking at what it will mean exactly for Russia’s military equipment.

If China don’t produce it now they’ll likely be looking to produce it. I think China see Russia as their main ally going forward, even if the money made is negligible, they’ll want a functioning Russian army…surely?

Or will China only need debt to conquer the world? For another thread.
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You are probably correct that China will likely supply Russia military equipment and components to make equipment long term. You'd imagine in terms of logistics, they'll struggle to do so short term to a large degree.

As for China's strategic position, I think their trade relationship with western nations is far more important to them. Russia has a GDP below South Korea, Italy and Canada so economically they are no super power. Can Russia even afford a long term war? NATO can effectively out produce Russia very easily in terms of military production. Russia are likely banking on the Gas and Oil reserves in Eastern Ukraine and the Black Sea, which they plan on annexing. They will then need to do a pipeline deal with China.
 
Beans said:
From any country taking part in the sanctions. I’m not sure how much of it can be replaced by China, they said a Russian tank factory was shut down for lack of parts but I’ve not read anything looking at what it will mean exactly for Russia’s military equipment.

If China don’t produce it now they’ll likely be looking to produce it. I think China see Russia as their main ally going forward, even if the money made is negligible, they’ll want a functioning Russian army…surely?

Or will China only need debt to conquer the world? For another thread.
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Well, they're treading the neutrality line right now, leaning more towards Russia, of course. One could argue they could benefit from chaos in Russia, fall of government and use it to take part of Siberia and claim it was theirs historically to begin with.
If reports are true, then russian forces on their eastern flank are greatly diminished to support war in Ukraine, and lack of government in place would leave their nuclear deterrent questionable if there is no chain of command in place, plus, who the hell right now would side with Russia, if they would be invaded?
Far-fetched, though.
 
Here is an interesting article from NYT about Germany and gas. My opinion is that the rest of Europe should demand from Germany to stop paying anything to Putin. Right now, not months and years in the future.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/07/opinion/germany-russia-ukraine-energy.html

What strikes me — a parallel that for some reason I haven’t seen many people drawing — is the contrast between Germany’s current reluctance to make moderate sacrifices, even in the face of horrific war crimes, and the immense sacrifices Germany demanded of other countries during the European debt crisis a decade ago.

As some readers may remember, early last decade much of southern Europe faced a crisis as lending dried up, sending interest rates on government debt soaring. German officials were quick to blame these countries for their own plight, insisting, with much moralizing, that they were in trouble because they had been fiscally irresponsible and now needed to pay the price.

As it turns out, this diagnosis was mostly wrong. Much of the surge in southern European interest rates reflected a market panic rather than fundamentals; borrowing costs plunged, even for Greece, after the president of the European Central Bank said three words — “whatever it takes” — suggesting that the bank would, if necessary, step in to buy the debt of troubled economies.

Yet Germany took the lead in demanding that debtor nations impose extreme austerity measures, especially spending cuts, no matter how large the economic costs. And those costs were immense: Between 2009 and 2013 the Greek economy shrank by 21 percent while the unemployment rate rose to 27 percent.

But while Germany was willing to impose economic and social catastrophe on countries it claimed had been irresponsible in their borrowing, it has been unwilling to impose far smaller costs on itself despite the undeniable irresponsibility of its past energy policies.

I’m not sure how to quantify this, but my sense is that Germany received far more and clearer warning about its feckless reliance on Russian gas than Greece ever did about its pre-crisis borrowing. Yet it seems as if Germany’s famous eagerness to treat economic policy as a morality play applies only to other countries.

To be fair, Germany has moved on from its initial unwillingness to help Ukraine at all; Ukraine’s ambassador to Germany claims, although the Germans deny it, that he was told there was no point in sending weapons because his government would collapse in hours. And maybe, maybe, the realization that refusing to shut off the flow of Russian gas makes Germany de facto complicit in mass murder will finally be enough to induce real action.

But until or unless this happens, Germany will continue, shamefully, to be the weakest link in the democratic world’s response to Russian aggression.
 
VorZakone said:
Ukraine vs Russia in any sport is going to be very tense for the foreseeable future. The relationship is very hateful at this point and as you say may remain for a long time.

Eventually it'll probably recover but the relationship will be rough for a couple of decades I reckon.
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I would imagine you’d have provisions made in all sports ensuring they can’t compete with each other (especially in team sports), like there are for other conflicted nations.
 
Beans said:
From any country taking part in the sanctions. I’m not sure how much of it can be replaced by China, they said a Russian tank factory was shut down for lack of parts but I’ve not read anything looking at what it will mean exactly for Russia’s military equipment.

If China don’t produce it now they’ll likely be looking to produce it. I think China see Russia as their main ally going forward, even if the money made is negligible, they’ll want a functioning Russian army…surely?

Or will China only need debt to conquer the world? For another thread.
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Should we stop buying stuff from China as well then, if that’s also helping Russia by proxy?
 
Probably asking when are they going to start taking back those pesky refugees.
 
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Sparky Rhiwabon said:
Should we stop buying stuff from China as well then, if that’s also helping Russia by proxy?
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I think the West is mad to let China control the world's supply of vital medicines, many things need to be manufactured in the US or Western Europe to ensure the world won't get cut off in the future.
 
frostbite said:
Here is an interesting article from NYT about Germany and gas. My opinion is that the rest of Europe should demand from Germany to stop paying anything to Putin. Right now, not months and years in the future.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/07/opinion/germany-russia-ukraine-energy.html

What strikes me — a parallel that for some reason I haven’t seen many people drawing — is the contrast between Germany’s current reluctance to make moderate sacrifices, even in the face of horrific war crimes, and the immense sacrifices Germany demanded of other countries during the European debt crisis a decade ago.

As some readers may remember, early last decade much of southern Europe faced a crisis as lending dried up, sending interest rates on government debt soaring. German officials were quick to blame these countries for their own plight, insisting, with much moralizing, that they were in trouble because they had been fiscally irresponsible and now needed to pay the price.

As it turns out, this diagnosis was mostly wrong. Much of the surge in southern European interest rates reflected a market panic rather than fundamentals; borrowing costs plunged, even for Greece, after the president of the European Central Bank said three words — “whatever it takes” — suggesting that the bank would, if necessary, step in to buy the debt of troubled economies.

Yet Germany took the lead in demanding that debtor nations impose extreme austerity measures, especially spending cuts, no matter how large the economic costs. And those costs were immense: Between 2009 and 2013 the Greek economy shrank by 21 percent while the unemployment rate rose to 27 percent.

But while Germany was willing to impose economic and social catastrophe on countries it claimed had been irresponsible in their borrowing, it has been unwilling to impose far smaller costs on itself despite the undeniable irresponsibility of its past energy policies.

I’m not sure how to quantify this, but my sense is that Germany received far more and clearer warning about its feckless reliance on Russian gas than Greece ever did about its pre-crisis borrowing. Yet it seems as if Germany’s famous eagerness to treat economic policy as a morality play applies only to other countries.

To be fair, Germany has moved on from its initial unwillingness to help Ukraine at all; Ukraine’s ambassador to Germany claims, although the Germans deny it, that he was told there was no point in sending weapons because his government would collapse in hours. And maybe, maybe, the realization that refusing to shut off the flow of Russian gas makes Germany de facto complicit in mass murder will finally be enough to induce real action.

But until or unless this happens, Germany will continue, shamefully, to be the weakest link in the democratic world’s response to Russian aggression.
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Completely agree. If until 2014 occupation you could have somehow forgiven the reckless dependency on Russia but they literally had a decade to sort this out and instead they actually doubled down by going ahead with NS2 project, which quite frankly was totally irresponsible (it was basically a gamble). I supported the idea that Southern EU states had to adhere to more reasonable fiscal policies to an extent back then but this totally the same, and EU needs to demand from Germany to take a hit for the greater good.
 
From the NYT:

  • The most colorful example of Russia's disregard for safety is a soldier who picked up a nuclear waste container of Cobalt-60, a highly radioactive isotope only found in nuclear reactors, with his bare hands. He was emitting so much radiation shortly afterwards that it pegged a geiger counter to it's maximum.
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The Firestarter said:
Co-60 is like a death ray device, but it has a short half life, this is unlikely to be from Chernobil, maybe the other active plant they captured ? Or, there is still some active reactors in the Chernobil complex?
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The NYT article specifically focus on Chernobyl, so it probably did happen there.
 


The vice president of the EU Comission saying “this will be won on the battlefield”. If we needed anymore signs that the ongoing “peace negotiations” were just some lame Kremlin tactics there it is.
 
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