Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Will Putin formally declare war on Ukraine (perhaps on May 9th, the day of their annual Victory Parade) and thus call for a general mobilisation? The British Defence Sec. (for instance) thinks he will.

However, doing so would bring big problems for Putin:

* It'd be an admission that the "special military operation" has failed - or why else would a general mobilisation even be needed?
* It will make even harder to deny the reality of Russian personnel losses, both immediately and in the future (more conscripts equals more news leaks back to families)
* It won't be politically popular, because it effects almost everyone - the large bulk of Russians - who has a relative liable for conscription.
* It will be massively disrupting for business and companies, who suddenly stand to lose large numbers of their employees.
*It could be a political disaster if large number of potential conscripts seek to evade the draft.
* Where do they find (do they even have?) the equipment for all such a massive number of new conscripts?
* How will find Russia the resources needed to train hundreds of thousands of new conscripts?

There will be plenty of riots if that SOB goes through with a general mobilisation order.
 
I think it's a bit frightening, too. Not only that but also the Twitter videos in which killings of Russian soldiers are accompanied by funny music.

Those aren't orcs but still human beings, not all of them are devils who love to kill, torture and rape civilians. Many were just unlucky to be born at the wrong place at the wrong time.

Sure, in the end they are the invaders and better then them Ukrainians but it's still wrong to enjoy it or see them as some sort of creatures.
 
I think it's a bit frightening, too. Not only that but also the Twitter videos in which killings of Russian soldiers are accompanied by funny music.

Those aren't orcs but still human beings, not all of them are devils who love to kill, torture and rape civilians. Many were just unlucky to be born at the wrong place at the wrong time.

Sure, in the end they are the invaders and better then them Ukrainians but it's still wrong to enjoy it or see them as some sort of creatures.
Well it’s as white & black situation as you can get. Don’t give me this bs, most of the orcs are on military contracts, meaning that they do it for money and technically they can opt out whenever they please. I’m sorry but these are fascist forces of course it won’t be comfortable. Barbarians.

 
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* Where do they find (do they even have?) the equipment for all such a massive number of new conscripts?
* How will find Russia the resources needed to train hundreds of thousands of new conscripts?

They probably won't train them properly and they most likely don't have adequate gear for them. It'll just be more people for the meat grinder.

Moreover, the mobilization would need time and as it seems Russia is running against the clock anyway. And even if they can afford a pause to mobilize reserves, Ukraine's also mobilizing and already training hundreds of thousands conscripts so they are likely to profit even more from the pause, especially considering that that would give them time to learn how to use various Western weapons as well. They could probably retake large territories as well.

I'm just a layman who was never interested in warfare or military before but from what I've seen and read I really struggle to see how this could end well for Russia. They'd probably be best of to just focus on defending the occupied territories and sort of turn the table by adapting Ukrainian tactics but this won't happen.

That's also why I believe it is important that we remain patient. Russia has the worse hand and if we just see it through and make no major mistake, they'll lose. Maybe even on a scale that enables real change in Russia itself. The most important thing is to do so without escalating the risk of nuclear warfare.
 
I think it's a bit frightening, too. Not only that but also the Twitter videos in which killings of Russian soldiers are accompanied by funny music.

Those aren't orcs but still human beings, not all of them are devils who love to kill, torture and rape civilians. Many were just unlucky to be born at the wrong place at the wrong time.

Sure, in the end they are the invaders and better then them Ukrainians but it's still wrong to enjoy it or see them as some sort of creatures.
Nop, they are orcs.
 
I don’t think there was ever a pilot who dropped 10 airplanes of similar quality. Not even Israeli pilots in the wars with the Arabs, despite having significant advantage in numbers.

Ghost of Kyiv legend was created in the first day or two, when apparently he dropped all 7 Russian airplanes that were lost back then. Of course it is a bullshit story, most Russian airplanes have been dropped from land to air missiles, not from other airplanes, and definitely not from the same guy.

Then no one talked about him till now.

If by similar quality you mean leading fighters of the time on each side going head to head then there have been dozens.
 
Well it’s as white & black situation as you can get. Don’t give me this bs, most of the orcs are on military contracts, meaning that they do it for money and technically they can opt out whenever they please. I’m sorry but these are fascist forces of course it won’t be comfortable.



There are reports of poor and uneducated people being forced to sign contracts through various means and many of the atrocities being committed seem to be instructions by officers. The Chechen's main task in this war is to pursue and shoot deserters. And all that's ignoring that they are completely indoctrinated by a propaganda machinery without being taught any media competency or independent thinking during their education. Changes are that this could be you if you were born in their stead.

I'm not saying they are innocent or deserve mercy but their lifes are essentially tragedies themselves so being amused about their deaths or depicting them as worthless inhuman creatures is wrong.
 
Do we know this to be the case though? I'm concerned that any opposition voices have been shut up, either through physical acts or intimidation.

Yeah, I agree. Z-patriotism has been given licence to intimidate or worse - the thugs will be out in force. Those expressing dissent will be accused of cowardice or treachery.

So I don't think there will be any protests except minor ones here and there - with those concerned being swiftly carted off by the police.
 
Angelina Jolie turns up in Kiev what a fkin beg, if you care so much publicise it on social media with your own voice, pisses me off.

Hope it isn’t a publicity stunt.
 
There are reports of poor and uneducated people being forced to sign contracts through various means and many of the atrocities being committed seem to be instructions by officers. The Chechen's main task in this war is to pursue and shoot deserters. And all that's ignoring that they are completely indoctrinated by a propaganda machinery without being taught any media competency or independent thinking during their education. Changes are that this could be you if you were born in their stead.

I'm not saying they are innocent or deserve mercy but their lifes are essentially tragedies themselves so being amused about their deaths or depicting them as worthless inhuman creatures is wrong.
You are absolutely right. Even if they behave like Orcs (which not every Russian soldier does, though it's definitely a lot) it is still a tragedy for humanity that societies exist where this happens.

Every dead orc is in a way a victim of an inhuman ideology that bred him that way and therefore a reason to mourn. Of course that doesn't redeem them of their crimes, it just is an additional layer of tragedy.

I get celebrating a victorious battle, but I will never get how people can celebrate the death of human beings.
 
Moreover, the mobilization would need time and as it seems Russia is running against the clock anyway. And even if they can afford a pause to mobilize reserves, Ukraine's also mobilizing and already training hundreds of thousands conscripts so they are likely to profit even more from the pause, especially considering that that would give them time to learn how to use various Western weapons as well. They could probably retake large territories as well.

I'm just a layman who was never interested in warfare or military before but from what I've seen and read I really struggle to see how this could end well for Russia. They'd probably be best of to just focus on defending the occupied territories and sort of turn the table by adapting Ukrainian tactics but this won't happen.

That's also why I believe it is important that we remain patient. Russia has the worse hand and if we just see it through and make no major mistake, they'll lose. Maybe even on a scale that enables real change in Russia itself. The most important thing is to do so without escalating the risk of nuclear warfare.

In order to train someone well enough to go to war in the context that the country's survival is not immediately at stake, they would need to survive basic training prior to entering more advanced training that would precede any deployment. Just to give everyone here an idea, the US Army Basic Combat Training (BCT), the US Marine Basic Training, and the Canadian Basic Military Qualification last 9 weeks, 13 weeks and 10 weeks respectively. Even during WW2, the US demanded their recruits to undergo a 3-fold training program that lasted 35-38 weeks prior to any deployment (source).

Just the "pause" would be about perfect for the currently combat-active Ukrainians to harrass and deplete the very thin Russian control upon occupied territories further. There is just no way that Russia could get enough properly trained conscripts within reasonable timetables to make a difference on the ground against a very motivated opponent.

Do we know this to be the case though? I'm concerned that any opposition voices have been shut up, either through physical acts or intimidation.

But how far can you intimidate the masses into submission? What will they do if people start self-injuring themselves or doing whatever else to not get into military service? History is littered with examples of people using various ways to evade conscription. Just the specter of the draft during the Vietnam War alone was enough to drive several Americans abroad, especially to Canada.
 
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You are absolutely right. Even if they behave like Orcs (which not every Russian soldier does, though it's definitely a lot) it is still a tragedy for humanity that societies exist where this happens.

Every dead orc is in a way a victim of an inhuman ideology that bred him that way and therefore a reason to mourn. Of course that doesn't redeem them of their crimes, it just is an additional layer of tragedy.

I get celebrating a victorious battle, but I will never get how people can celebrate the death of human beings.

Yes, that's exactly how I feel
 
Angelina Jolie turns up in Kiev what a fkin beg, if you care so much publicise it on social media with your own voice, pisses me off.

Hope it isn’t a publicity stunt.

I don't understand this post. She's a Unicef Ambassador. What's your objection to her going to Ukraine and doing what she can to show support?
 
Angelina Jolie turns up in Kiev what a fkin beg, if you care so much publicise it on social media with your own voice, pisses me off.

Hope it isn’t a publicity stunt.
I don't understand this post. She's a Unicef Ambassador. What's your objection to her going to Ukraine and doing what she can to show support?
Also: how is going to a war area yourself not using your own voice? And publicity for what?

Very weird post.
 
But how far can you intimidate the masses into submission? What will they do if people start self-injuring themselves or doing whatever else to not get into military service? History is littered with examples of people using various ways to evade conscription. Just the specter of the draft during the Vietnam War alone was enough to drive several Americans abroad, especially to Canada.

I think that's the decisive question. From my perspective, the reason the Russian propaganda works so well is because people want to believe it. Because if they believed that their own government is doing something wrong, it would mean they are morally bliged to do something about it, sort of accepting they're being oppressed AND supported war criminals for far too long. But protesting again would mean putting your life or at least the relative freedom you have at risk. It is easier to just buy into Russian state propaganda to avoid that. It's an easy way out of the cognitive dissonance.

But the moment the state goes for you and wants you to risk your life anyway, that motivation is gone. Your safety or that of your loved ones is suddenly at stake even if you comply.

So that step is very risky for Putin. His position will be much weaker without domestic support. He's really backed himself into a corner this time.
 
In this audio-intercept, a Russian soldier says there are 25,900 dead Russians. We can ask, how would he know? But still, it's an oddly specific number.

 
That painting is quite apt and absolute majority of Russian soldiers are orcs. Most are in it for money. By the way, most of Russian citizens do support what Putin is doing, whereas people like @harms are rarity. Amoung those who are against this russist war, the majority are concerned by their financial well-being rather than the sufferings of Ukranian people. Fecking orcs they are.
 
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If your son comes home from school, sobbing because Billy from 8th grade called him a cnut, stole his lunch and kicked him in the nuts, saying he hates Billy, you support your kid, try to make him feel better and then try to solve the issue. You don't start telling your kid that he should mature up with the hate-y rhetoric. You don't tell them, while they're still crying, that Billy's mom cheated on his dad with the plumber, which led to their breakup which, in turn, led to a pretty shite socio-economical situation for Billy to grow up in, so "don't say you hate Billy, he's a also a victim here".

All war comes with propaganda, it's a tool of war like any other. One type of propaganda is to gain support of the onlookers, the other type of propaganda is to motivate your own people, those who fight and those who suffer. You can't be serious moaning about Ukrainians going on about Ghost of Kyiv, Poltergeist of Mariupol and Goblin of Lviv if they want to. You also can't demand them to stay emotionally well and mature at all times. Their homes and cities are being destroyed, women and kids raped and murdered, and lies after lies. You have no idea what they are going through, they are surely allowed to vent a bit by drawing a picture of a knight slaying some orcs and make their kids feel safe by telling them about a dude shooting down a Russian plane every minute. I'm glad that we here are so intelligent that we can afford to type paragraphs about the war on a football forum, sometimes you need short and catchy slogans though. The siege mentality thing is not actually Jose's invention, it actually comes from situations like these in Ukraine.

Yes, we will see a surge of russophobia, hatred towards everything Russian, it's a shame, but it is understandable if you put yourself into some bloodied Ukrainian shoes. Let's deal with that after the war is done and Putin is gone. At the moment I have no time for the tragedy of Russians.
 
That painting is quite apt and absolute majority of Russian soldiers are orcs. Most are in it for money. By the way, most of Russian citizens do support what Putin is doing, whereas people like @harms are rarity. Amoung those who are against this russist war, the majority are concerned by their financial well-being rather than the sufferings of Ukranian people. Fecking orcs they are.
The main issue is that it’s simply counter-productive. If you want something to change without the total annihilation of one of the countries, dehumanizing one of the sides is not the best option. Basically, the only one who benefits from this is none other than Putin, who can use this in his propaganda, further pushing forward the idea of a global anti-Russian sentiment that needs to be dealt with.

I’ll never argue with a Ukrainian that’s going to call Russians any word that they’ll want. But from someone who’s not directly involved in this war it’s really better to try and to look at this situation with at least some kind of a reserved opinion.

I know for myself that my empathy towards the Russian troops or people who support this war is simply non-existent. I don’t feel any sympathy towards those who are dying on this unjust war even though I know about the ways that they themselves were tricked or forced into it. Just read about mobilization in Donetsk — they are hunting down their own men only to use them as a human shield to protect more valuable forces. And Kadyrov people are there to make sure that you don’t have the option of running away.

So yeah, if you’re not a Ukrainian, trying to behave like a human being instead of getting down on Putin’s level and using the same Nazi rhetoric is probably the way to go, otherwise you’re only enhancing the problem in the long run. All war criminals should be held accountable and trialed for what they’ve done.

If you’re a Ukrainian, do and say whatever though, all of that fancy theory goes out of the way down on the ground.
 
If your son comes home from school, sobbing because Billy from 8th grade called him a cnut, stole his lunch and kicked him in the nuts, saying he hates Billy, you support your kid, try to make him feel better and then try to solve the issue. You don't start telling your kid that he should mature up with the hate-y rhetoric. You don't tell them, while they're still crying, that Billy's mom cheated on his dad with the plumber, which led to their breakup which, in turn, led to a pretty shite socio-economical situation for Billy to grow up in, so "don't say you hate Billy, he's a also a victim here".

All war comes with propaganda, it's a tool of war like any other. One type of propaganda is to gain support of the onlookers, the other type of propaganda is to motivate your own people, those who fight and those who suffer. You can't be serious moaning about Ukrainians going on about Ghost of Kyiv, Poltergeist of Mariupol and Goblin of Lviv if they want to. You also can't demand them to stay emotionally well and mature at all times. Their homes and cities are being destroyed, women and kids raped and murdered, and lies after lies. You have no idea what they are going through, they are surely allowed to vent a bit by drawing a picture of a knight slaying some orcs and make their kids feel safe by telling them about a dude shooting down a Russian plane every minute. I'm glad that we here are so intelligent that we can afford to type paragraphs about the war on a football forum, sometimes you need short and catchy slogans though. The siege mentality thing is not actually Jose's invention, it actually comes from situations like these in Ukraine.

Yes, we will see a surge of russophobia, hatred towards everything Russian, it's a shame, but it is understandable if you put yourself into some bloodied Ukrainian shoes. Let's deal with that after the war is done and Putin is gone. At the moment I have no time for the tragedy of Russians.

But I'm not discussing with Ukrainians but with, well, other people who write paragraphs about the war on a football forum.
 
The main issue is that it’s simply counter-productive. If you want something to change without the total annihilation of one of the countries, dehumanizing one of the sides is not the best option. Basically, the only one who benefits from this is none other than Putin, who can use this in his propaganda, further pushing forward the idea of a global anti-Russian sentiment that needs to be dealt with.

I’ll never argue with a Ukrainian that’s going to call Russians any word that they’ll want. But from someone who’s not directly involved in this war it’s really better to try and to look at this situation with at least some kind of a reserved opinion.

I know for myself that my empathy towards the Russian troops or people who support this war is simply non-existent. I don’t feel any sympathy towards those who are dying on this unjust war even though I know about the ways that they themselves were tricked or forced into it. Just read about mobilization in Donetsk — they are hunting down their own men only to use them as a human shield to protect more valuable forces. And Kadyrov people are there to make sure that you don’t have the option of running away.

So yeah, if you’re not a Ukrainian, trying to behave like a human being instead of getting down on Putin’s level and using the same Nazi rhetoric is probably the way to go, otherwise you’re only enhancing the problem in the long run. All war criminals should be held accountable and trialed for what they’ve done.

If you’re a Ukrainian, do and say whatever though, all of that fancy theory goes out of the way down on the ground.
Well said.
 
The main issue is that it’s simply counter-productive. If you want something to change without the total annihilation of one of the countries, dehumanizing one of the sides is not the best option. Basically, the only one who benefits from this is none other than Putin, who can use this in his propaganda, further pushing forward the idea of a global anti-Russian sentiment that needs to be dealt with.

I’ll never argue with a Ukrainian that’s going to call Russians any word that they’ll want. But from someone who’s not directly involved in this war it’s really better to try and to look at this situation with at least some kind of a reserved opinion.

I know for myself that my empathy towards the Russian troops or people who support this war is simply non-existent. I don’t feel any sympathy towards those who are dying on this unjust war even though I know about the ways that they themselves were tricked or forced into it. Just read about mobilization in Donetsk — they are hunting down their own men only to use them as a human shield to protect more valuable forces. And Kadyrov people are there to make sure that you don’t have the option of running away.

So yeah, if you’re not a Ukrainian, trying to behave like a human being instead of getting down on Putin’s level and using the same Nazi rhetoric is probably the way to go, otherwise you’re only enhancing the problem in the long run. All war criminals should be held accountable and trialed for what they’ve done.

If you’re a Ukrainian, do and say whatever though, all of that fancy theory goes out of the way down on the ground.

Sorry, but we are all Ukrainians in this.

Sure, I am just a fake "Ukrainian" watching the war in the safety of my living room. But still, it makes my blood boil when I watch the destruction of Mariupol. For what? All this death and destruction ... for what? For nothing! Absolutely nothing. Just because of the moron Putin. And the millions of Russians who have voted for Putin in the past 20 years. So yes, I have no problem imagining Russians as orcs or nazis.

And yes, I know that you and millions of other Russians are nice people, but also in 1940 millions of Germans were nice people, too. Those innocent Germans had (some) responsibility for what happened in Auschwitz, and innocent Russians today have (some) responsibility for what is happening in Mariupol. And I have the right to say this, even though I am not a Jew and I am not a Ukrainian.
 
Sorry, but we are all Ukrainians in this.

Sure, I am just a fake "Ukrainian" watching the war in the safety of my living room. But still, it makes my blood boil when I watch the destruction of Mariupol. For what? All this death and destruction ... for what? For nothing! Absolutely nothing. Just because of the moron Putin. And the millions of Russians who have voted for Putin in the past 20 years. So yes, I have no problem imagining Russians as orcs or nazis.

And yes, I know that you and millions of other Russians are nice people, but also in 1940 millions of Germans were nice people, too. Those innocent Germans had (some) responsibility for what happened in Auschwitz, and innocent Russians today have (some) responsibility for what is happening in Mariupol. And I have the right to say this, even though I am not a Jew and I am not a Ukrainian.
Orcs and Nazis shouldn’t be equated. Orc is a race (or even a literally de-humanizing plot device), nazism is an ideology. By calling them orcs you ignore the actual reasons of why all of this is happening, leaving the window open for it to happen again in the future. Do call them nazis or fascists though, they clearly are.

The last thing I want is to escape collective responsibility — believe me, I thought about it more than you and probably anyone else on this forum over the past 2 months. And it has nothing to do with orcs.
 
That painting is quite apt and absolute majority of Russian soldiers are orcs. Most are in it for money. By the way, most of Russian citizens do support what Putin is doing, whereas people like @harms are rarity. Amoung those who are against this russist war, the majority are concerned by their financial well-being rather than the sufferings of Ukranian people. Fecking orcs they are.

Do most soldiers around the world join their country's army because of their love of peace and helping others?

Honestly I find this a bit of a strange argument.